The race is breaking
- Thread starter GOHOX69
- Start date
That's funny, as when i took metro home from the caps game last night, the family of people that exited the station when I did seemed to be like perfectly nice and earnest people.
I'm sure @naturalbornhawk is another small town Iowa guy who's afraid of leaving his little town. We know he won't go get a flu shot!
- Sep 13, 2002
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Amazing they think outright lying and gaslighting is effective. It can't be, right?
- Sep 13, 2002
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Blind Pig Finds Acorn!
For one of the few times in recorded history, my scotus predictions have panned out. As I noted the other day, i had a sneaking suspicion after reading the briefs that they might actually grant the stay in the Virginia litigation, which they did a few minutes ago.
At the end of the day, this should be very unlikely to affect outcomes in any material way, as the 'scrubbed' motor-voter registrations were persons who self identified as noncitizens and had an opportunity to contest which they didn't exercise, and were thus ineligible and probably (I would hope) very unlikely to "actually" vote even if registered.
For one of the few times in recorded history, my scotus predictions have panned out. As I noted the other day, i had a sneaking suspicion after reading the briefs that they might actually grant the stay in the Virginia litigation, which they did a few minutes ago.
At the end of the day, this should be very unlikely to affect outcomes in any material way, as the 'scrubbed' motor-voter registrations were persons who self identified as noncitizens and had an opportunity to contest which they didn't exercise, and were thus ineligible and probably (I would hope) very unlikely to "actually" vote even if registered.
This one is from Votify. The one above is from Polymarket (Nate Silver's new home).
I wonder why they are so different?
I wonder why they are so different?
and i wonder why anybody pays attention to eitherThis one is from Votify. The one above is from Polymarket (Nate Silver's new home).
I wonder why they are so different?
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Did you miss the story about the wealthy Trump fanboys buying up all the Polymarket contracts to boost his numbers?This one is from Votify. The one above is from Polymarket (Nate Silver's new home).
I wonder why they are so different?
How one trader’s $26m Trump bet exposed Polymarket’s prediction problem
Polymarket's effecient market gets a gut check.
www.dlnews.com
I did miss that. I knew the Rs were commissioning polls that would show Trump ahead. So that they could argue after they lose that the election was rigged because the polls showed them ahead.Did you miss the story about the wealthy Trump fanboys buying up all the Polymarket contracts to boost his numbers?
How one trader’s $26m Trump bet exposed Polymarket’s prediction problem
Polymarket's effecient market gets a gut check.
I imagine betting up Trump on Polymarket can be used in the same way.
It's actually rather clever - if you don't give a damn about honesty or democracy.
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Polls are not, and never will be, evidence of any voter fraud.
That was the case in 2020 with >60 "claims" tossed and will be true in 2024.
They will, however, incite idiots to commit crimes on behalf of those who lie to them about the election results.
I was thinking about buying some Kamala shares on Polymarket, but apparently you can't if you are an American. Why is that?
If money is speech, surely I should be able to bet however I want.
If money is speech, surely I should be able to bet however I want.
I disagree. Proof, no; but evidence, yes.
But more to the point, if Trump uses that argument after he loses, it will be proof enough for his supporters to justify another Jan 6.
Because it is not any form of "poll", it is propaganda run by oligarchs and international interests. Not American interests.
They will absolutely use Polymarket information to claim fraud in November/December. They are currently using it to draw voters to Trump, who will mindlessly join the alleged "bandwagon". Lots of voters are swayed by this kind of stuff who do not dig into actual issues.
No; they cannot be evidence of fraud. Only identifying fraudulent votes is evidence of fraud.
You could certainly use them to determine where to LOOK for fraud. However, they provide zero evidence of it.
It's a betting site. Who cares who runs it, if I just want to place a bet and am willing to take the risk?
That's an interesting argument, but stats have been used as proof before - as for example in Brown v Board of Ed.
It shouldn't work in this case because the paid-for positive Trump polls shouldn't be considered good enough evidence to be admitted. But it isn't hard to imagine a different scenario with high quality polls that could sway a court.
55 million votes in and women keep expanding their lead over men. Donny's done.
It won't let me make a post about Trump and Harris - really, this is bizarre - where is the free speech?
Trump - authoritarian rule, will attack the media, will imprison media negative to him, wants to set up encampments for illegals and going door to door looking for them WWII Germany style. Wants tariffs on everything, hell even musk said would break the economy, but something great would be born out of the ash, will give Ukraine to Putin, willing to sell out anything for his own gain,
Harris - for equality, free speech, wants to help the middle class, new business owners, improve the border remember trump killed the bill Wants us to be respected by our allies
The choice seems clear
edit: They won't let you post the word N.A.Z.I.
Harris - for equality, free speech, wants to help the middle class, new business owners, improve the border remember trump killed the bill Wants us to be respected by our allies
The choice seems clear
edit: They won't let you post the word N.A.Z.I.
Does your source break down the gender demographics per state?
If Kamala can win Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, then I will agree Donnie is done. She wouldn’t need a single state among Arizona, NC, or Georgia should that happen.
hawkeyetraveler
HB Heisman
It’s not technically a betting site. It is a futures market like a commodity exchange and they did not get the appropriate registration with the US government for that.
There are other sites that registered appropriately where Americans can put their money,
I think that polls may have a small effect late in the race because some may say it won’t make a difference how I vote so why bother, or it could create a minor bandwagon thing - heck everyone else is choosing this candidate and I want to be with the other winners.
I don’t think it’s good evidence of fraud.
I don’t think it’s good evidence of fraud.
Polls are zero evidence of fraud. Unless you're Bonespurs, worrying about losing already, and getting your excuses lined up in a row. In order to rile up the cult when you lose.
So you're a big city guy from the outskirts of CR? Lol.I live on the outskirts of and work in CR.
You do not appear to understand the issues here.
it is run by adversarial foreign powers, trying to influence our election, and trying to give Trump and his followers justification to make false claims if he loses.
That's actually a very very big deal.
hawkeyetraveler
HB Heisman
I live on the outskirts of and work in CR.
What happened to you? How can someone so anti-Trump post 2020 election find something redeeming in the man now?
I know you are an RFK fanboy, but does his hypocrisy at switching sides mean you can no longer think for yourself? Aren’t you anti-vax people are always saying “do your own research”? I guess that doesn’t apply when your idols tell you what to think.
Rigged/weighted polls are not "stats".
Particularly when other polls (which are balanced) say otherwise, and ones rigged the opposite way state the opposite.
They are not, nor will they ever be "evidence" for voter fraud.
Good find man! That's what happens when you let your uninformed brother use your account.
