The race is breaking
- Thread starter GOHOX69
- Start date
Like I said, it depends on the polls.
In September (i.e.), Harris might have been up in Wisconsin 49% to 45% on average. All of the sudden, come October, she’s either practically in a dead heat with Trump or is behind a percentage point or two, depending on the poll.
That’s what I mean.
I agree nothing has really changed, and I still just can't see how he's attracted any new voters. I do believe he's doing a little better with black men, but not significantly. It's pretty clear you're taking your opinions from left leaning media and not actually watching what Trump or his advocates are saying, which just isn't a method I can subscribe to, but at a high level, we agree on the big picture.What I've been wondering is if this "momentum" is actually real or more just the vibe/zeitgeist.
Nothing good has happened to the Trump campaign in the past 3 weeks - in fact, it's been mostly bad stuff like his former top general saying he likes Hitler and his rallies devolving into racist grievance fests.
It feels to me like the usual Democrat paranoia and hand wringing ramping up while the MAGATs remain blissfully tethered in non-reality thinking their guy can't possibly lose.
Very similar to the 2022 congressional elections.
We shall see. I am definitely one of the paranoid hand-wringers.
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Holy shit, almost 11% margin of more women than men. That shouldn't bode well for the rapist at all.» 2024 Early Voting UF Election Lab
election.lab.ufl.edu
- Sep 13, 2002
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I read the Wall Street Journal every day and it's fairly conservative. I also feel like much of The Atlantic's coverage is clear-eyed and sober - same with The Bulwark which is a coalition of conservative writers who oppose Trump.
Trump doesn't need to attract new voters. He just needs to get his to the polls.
I used to believe that conservatives would win easily with a more mainstream candidate like Haley or DeSantis or now, Vance. But now I'm not sure. I think Trump gets people to the polls that normally DGAF about elections. The blue collar working guy, young AA men this cycle, poor white women over 40. That could explain why 2022 went in Dem favor. Trumps voters stayed home. Like they do every election normally. I'd guess if the data was there there are more than a few people that bite only when Trump is on the ballot. Guess we will see.
I used to believe that conservatives would win easily with a more mainstream candidate like Haley or DeSantis or now, Vance. But now I'm not sure. I think Trump gets people to the polls that normally DGAF about elections. The blue collar working guy, young AA men this cycle, poor white women over 40. That could explain why 2022 went in Dem favor. Trumps voters stayed home. Like they do every election normally. I'd guess if the data was there there are more than a few people that bite only when Trump is on the ballot. Guess we will see.
But only 6 states. Im sure you noticed that.….some of which arent swing states.
Not sure if this predicts much honestly. Being fair.
There's more registered Democrats than Republicans. Are you insinuating that Trump voters stayed home in the last race, because that's not even close to true. He got an incredibly high number of votes in a losing effort. I just don't see how he gets any new voters. But I'm clearly biased. And I don't think the poll numbers in MIchigan, PA and Wisconsin are as close as they really say they are.
- Sep 13, 2002
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STFU moron. You're voting for an adjudicated rapist and convicted felon.
Eat a bag of dicks.
ANNNNNNDDDDDDDD...ignore.
Prediction: It's not going to matter at all in terms of electoral outcomes, but I'm going to take a flyer and predict that Scotus takes up the VA motor-voter noncitizen case. While my general presumption is that they're highly disinclined to take any of these things up before the election, having read the pleadings, the factual outcome resulting from the court of appeals opinion just strikes me as a little too bizarre, and you've got a 25 state amicus on file.
(The PA case is crap though).
(The PA case is crap though).
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I see. Yeah, polling at the state level can be difficult to do well, and hard to find high quality polls. They will probably reflect more volatility. 7% seems like a lot to be real, 3-4% maybe not as much. These swing states are absolutely getting massacred by ads (I'm in one and its brutal).
This is a good trend point for Democrats, on the idea that Trump is always underestimated by polling.
It's a little shaky, because you have never had the same candidate in three consecutive presidential cycles. But it's a good data point nonetheless.
It's a little shaky, because you have never had the same candidate in three consecutive presidential cycles. But it's a good data point nonetheless.
Look, the point is very simple: there is no basis to believe that recency bias has suddenly become a principle on which the real world works, rather than a principle describing the way the real world doesn't work.
And to be very clear, with respect to some of the list on this tweet, an argument against recency bias based on (wait for it) ... recency bias ... is pretty damned hilarious.
While I very rarely find anything good to say about the Trump campaign, I actually saw the best Trump ad I've seen on Youtube yesterday.
It's just a static shot of a single oil derrick pumping away in the twilight. No talking, just the words Energy Independence. And below it, Trump 2024.
I don't know who is doing that ad (whether its a ridiculous premise or not), but THAT was probably the best ad I've seen in this cycle. Although the middle class tax cut commercials Harris is running are not terrible.
It's just a static shot of a single oil derrick pumping away in the twilight. No talking, just the words Energy Independence. And below it, Trump 2024.
I don't know who is doing that ad (whether its a ridiculous premise or not), but THAT was probably the best ad I've seen in this cycle. Although the middle class tax cut commercials Harris is running are not terrible.
I went to vote early in GA today. Wasn't crowded, but there were people voting. Have no idea how to judge it, as it's my first election in this county and I don't know if it's busier or less busy than usual.
Very efficient and professional as always. The consecutive attacks on Georgia's election integrity by Stacy Abrams, and then Trump and his surrogates, and then the Biden administration are just scurrilous and I will never forgive any of them for it.
Very efficient and professional as always. The consecutive attacks on Georgia's election integrity by Stacy Abrams, and then Trump and his surrogates, and then the Biden administration are just scurrilous and I will never forgive any of them for it.
Thx for reminding us (again) how voting works for middle class white people in America, vs. minorities in poorer jurisdictions.
And the US is producing more oil and gas right now than at any time in history.
- Sep 13, 2002
- 98,420
- 205,790
- 113
- Sep 13, 2002
- 98,420
- 205,790
- 113
Cognitive dissonance is real.
I'd guess that we won't know on election nite who won.
After the fiasco in 2020 with Fox Opinion Network taking crap from MAGA Universe for declaring AZ to Biden...everyone will wait extra long.
Plus, several battleground States count absentee/early votes at different times.
After the fiasco in 2020 with Fox Opinion Network taking crap from MAGA Universe for declaring AZ to Biden...everyone will wait extra long.
Plus, several battleground States count absentee/early votes at different times.
Christ this poll is comically bad. Every last state is a tie? Really?
Huey, look at who it's from?
