The race is breaking

[pjhawk]

A month ago Nevada was almost certainly going blue. As were Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Now they are all coin tosses. And until an election goes by where the polls don't undercount GOP votes, I am going to assume he will perform at least 1% to 2% better than the polls. Anyone thinking otherwise is engaged in wishful thinking.

As far as MSG; he fired up his base. You guys keep thinking saying stupid things, saying racist things, and saying vile things hurts a candidate. At some point you have to realize that it helps Trump.

And then you see a poll like this from a solid red state.


The polling in the 7 swing states could just be herding at this point. And the swing in the last month or so has been like 1.5 points, it's actually statistically insignificant and might not signify any movement at all. It isn't anything like a Mike Dukakis going from 19 up after the dem convention to 10 down in a couple months.

Harris is apparently in big trouble in Nevada, Jon Ralston is a fabulous twitter follow for into on that, but this has been a coin flip election since Harris entered the race and it looks like it's going to be a coin flip going into election day.

Of course either Trump or Harris may clearly win, but that's impossible to see from here, 8 days before the election.

 

[pjhawk]

I have more comfort food for Democrats:

CES says Kamala Harris is comfortably in the lead​

The 2024 CES pre-election survey, based on a huge sample of nearly 80,000 adults, puts Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump 51-47% among likely voters. She's ahead 52-46% among very likely voters. Here's their breakdown by age and gender:
Harris is tied or ahead with every single group except one: old men, where she's behind by 12 points. But what can you do about that? This is the core Fox News demographic, and they've been told for years that Kamala Harris is a radical leftist fanatic who's determined to let in a ravaging horde of Mexicans who will destroy America. There's not much hope of ever getting through to them.

https://jabberwocking.com/ces-says-kamala-harris-is-comfortably-in-the-lead/

 

[GOHOX69]

I have more comfort food for Democrats:

CES says Kamala Harris is comfortably in the lead​

The 2024 CES pre-election survey, based on a huge sample of nearly 80,000 adults, puts Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump 51-47% among likely voters. She's ahead 52-46% among very likely voters. Here's their breakdown by age and gender:
Harris is tied or ahead with every single group except one: old men, where she's behind by 12 points. But what can you do about that? This is the core Fox News demographic, and they've been told for years that Kamala Harris is a radical leftist fanatic who's determined to let in a ravaging horde of Mexicans who will destroy America. There's not much hope of ever getting through to them.

https://jabberwocking.com/ces-says-kamala-harris-is-comfortably-in-the-lead/

Art won't believe you 😉

 

[artradley]

Art won't believe you 😉

That poll is included in the538’s aggregate. Which currently has Harris up by 1.5%.

 

[pjhawk]

 

[bunsen82]

What do you follow

Allan Lichtman still predicts Harris to win. He looks at predictors rather than the polls or betting markets. Has been correct in 9-10 elections. I follow IEM, currently heavily skewed to Harris, it’s a thin market and could be affected by a students that lean democratic, however it’s a market that isn’t influenced by 1-2 big better. Currently 80 to 20 odds for Harris. The early poll data shows massive turnout. Harris needs high turnout to win. Lastly, it’s the fact women are leaning heavily towards Harris. As a group they are more reliable to vote and this margin looks bigger to Harris than to Biden 4 years ago. I do check 538 and a few other sites. It still appears Wisconsin and Michigan will trend to Harris. That leave Pennsylvania. My personal opinion is the polls are under recording Harris support by 1-2% or more. Similar to the 2022 election where republicans underperformed. There are also 2 prognosticators who have been on CNBC that still say 55% chance for Harris.

 

[Funky Bunch]

Allan Lichtman still predicts Harris to win. He looks at predictors rather than the polls or betting markets. Has been correct in 9-10 elections. I follow IEM, currently heavily skewed to Harris, it’s a thin market and could be affected by a students that lean democratic, however it’s a market that isn’t influenced by 1-2 big better. Currently 80 to 20 odds for Harris. The early poll data shows massive turnout. Harris needs high turnout to win. Lastly, it’s the fact women are leaning heavily towards Harris. As a group they are more reliable to vote and this margin looks bigger to Harris than to Biden 4 years ago. I do check 538 and a few other sites. It still appears Wisconsin and Michigan will trend to Harris. That leave Pennsylvania. My personal opinion is the polls are under recording Harris support by 1-2% or more. Similar to the 2022 election where republicans underperformed. There are also 2 prognosticators who have been on CNBC that still say 55% chance for Harris.

Hope you're right. Yesterday I was driving to work and someone was talking about how there could be a lower turnout but I zoned out and didn't even listen to what they said. I don't believe that for one minute and think we will blow past the records. I don't think the IEM really means much though, because that's only the popular vote, not that she will really win the presidency.

"The payoffs in this market will be based on the popular vote received by the official Democratic and Republican nominees in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Payoffs are NOT affected by votes received by nominees from other parties, the outcome of the electoral college or any vote taken by the House of Representatives should such a vote be necessary."

 

[Aardvark86]

Comfor

I have more comfort food for Democrats:

CES says Kamala Harris is comfortably in the lead​

The 2024 CES pre-election survey, based on a huge sample of nearly 80,000 adults, puts Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump 51-47% among likely voters. She's ahead 52-46% among very likely voters. Here's their breakdown by age and gender:
Harris is tied or ahead with every single group except one: old men, where she's behind by 12 points. But what can you do about that? This is the core Fox News demographic, and they've been told for years that Kamala Harris is a radical leftist fanatic who's determined to let in a ravaging horde of Mexicans who will destroy America. There's not much hope of ever getting through to them.

https://jabberwocking.com/ces-says-kamala-harris-is-comfortably-in-the-lead/

Comfort food is probably not a bad description - the calories are satisfying but a little empty; the hole in this is it’s a national survey and the survey period is extremely wide.

 

[bunsen82]

Hope you're right. Yesterday I was driving to work and someone was talking about how there could be a lower turnout but I zoned out and didn't even listen to what they said. I don't believe that for one minute and think we will blow past the records. I don't think the IEM really means much though, because that's only the popular vote, not that she will really win the presidency.

"The payoffs in this market will be based on the popular vote received by the official Democratic and Republican nominees in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Payoffs are NOT affected by votes received by nominees from other parties, the outcome of the electoral college or any vote taken by the House of Representatives should such a vote be necessary."

IEM has 2 markets for president- popular vote and winner takes all. I only follow the winner takes all which is the electoral college.

 

[thewop]

And then you see a poll like this from a solid red state.

View embedded media

The polling in the 7 swing states could just be herding at this point. And the swing in the last month or so has been like 1.5 points, it's actually statistically insignificant and might not signify any movement at all. It isn't anything like a Mike Dukakis going from 19 up after the dem convention to 10 down in a couple months.

Harris is apparently in big trouble in Nevada, Jon Ralston is a fabulous twitter follow for into on that, but this has been a coin flip election since Harris entered the race and it looks like it's going to be a coin flip going into election day.

Of course either Trump or Harris may clearly win, but that's impossible to see from here, 8 days before the election.

Great take, and I would add that all of those states could be within a VERY slim percentage of each other and still equate to a fairly large electoral college victory for either.

We simply don't know.

I still believe she hangs on, but it's really hard to know the way his momentum has picked up, and her campaign's posture has turned from optimism to concern.

 

[Funky Bunch]

IEM has 2 markets for president- popular vote and winner takes all. I only follow the winner takes all which is the electoral college.

They are both popular vote. The quote I posted above is from the Winner Take All prospectus. I think the difference in the two is the way they do the payouts. In WTA you get $1 if you win the bet. In the Voting Share, you get the percentage back that the candidate gets in voting share. I don't quite understand the VS market but I'm 100% sure the WTA is not electoral college.

2024 U.S. Presidential Election Markets | Iowa Electronic Markets

iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu

 

[RagnarLothbrok]

That poll is included in the538’s aggregate. Which currently has Harris up by 1.5%.

If 100% accurate, that won’t get it done for Harris.

 

[gohawks50]

And then you see a poll like this from a solid red state.

View embedded media

The polling in the 7 swing states could just be herding at this point. And the swing in the last month or so has been like 1.5 points, it's actually statistically insignificant and might not signify any movement at all. It isn't anything like a Mike Dukakis going from 19 up after the dem convention to 10 down in a couple months.

Harris is apparently in big trouble in Nevada, Jon Ralston is a fabulous twitter follow for into on that, but this has been a coin flip election since Harris entered the race and it looks like it's going to be a coin flip going into election day.

Of course either Trump or Harris may clearly win, but that's impossible to see from here, 8 days before the election.

There was a story on the Omaha CBS station about the Trump lead in Nebraska's District 1 (not the blue dot) being significantly smaller than it was 4 years ago. Something like 5 compared to 15 percent. I can't find the story online to share though. Nebraska does have abortion, medical marijuana, and school voucher initiatives driving turnout.

 

[Flie]

I see the message being delivered pretty consistently on social media that Trump is way ahead and the race is effectively over. MAGAs of course believe this so if Kamala wins, they will just KNOW that the dirty dems cheated. I've seen graphs that show stuff like Trump with 80% of the votes or other similar lopsided projections. They think this is real.

The post-election riot will be epic.

 

[RagnarLothbrok]

I see the message being delivered pretty consistently on social media that Trump is way ahead and the race is effectively over. MAGAs of course believe this so if Kamala wins, they will just KNOW that the dirty dems cheated. I've seen graphs that show stuff like Trump with 80% of the votes or other similar lopsided projections. They think this is real.

The post-election riot will be epic.

I sometimes wonder if what has been driving the polls lately is inflated nonsense from sympathetic rightwing groups. It just doesn’t seem logical for Trump to be picking up this much momentum in the last month. There just aren’t enough undecideds out there that would be moving the needle in favor of Trump this much. Trump is not a new wildcard candidate that is drawing tons of interest. His arenas look half full at best a lot of nights.

It would make sense if there are some purposely inflated polls out there to get the MAGA idiot brigade riled up once Trump loses. I’m truly convinced nearly all MAGAts would rather burn the country down than see Kamala and the Democrats win.

 

[pjhawk]

There is a better chance of democracy ending if Harris wins; because that is when MAGA, particularly at the state level, will fight to overturn the results. And it will make 1/6 look like a small town Iowa Caucus.

So appeasement of the fascists will save democracy? Better let them win?

 

[Aardvark86]

So appeasement of the fascists will save democracy? Better let them win?

PJ, you're misconstruing Art's point. In essence, he thinks there's a greater propensity for violence if Harris wins. He's probably right, but that is a far cry from him somehow suggesting that people should not vote for Harris.

From my perspective, that potential for violence exists for both outcomes, and frankly, if a Trump victory would in fact be as bad as the phrasing of your question might suggest, I'm honestly not sure why the left would (or for that matter, should) refrain from violence. I mean, wouldn't democracy be worth fighting for if you believed it was at risk? So I tend to think that probability of left-violence may be a little higher than many people imagine, though it may take a slightly different form or focus on slightly different "targets." (I say this as the guy who had a car burning out of control below his downtown office window one cold winter day in January 2017.)

 

[Nole Lou]

Look, quit comparing the 2. I get that Kamala has kind of been tossed into the fire and I guess you can say she didn’t “earn it.” But basically she’s had more real world experience than Biden and then being the VP. Trump is morally bankrupt. If you think the 2 are equally bad then you’re just wrong. You might disagree with the Democrat party on issues but don’t compare the 2 of them as human beings. One is an absolute piece of shit. And I think we all know who that is.

LOL you argue with things I never said. I never said Trump wasn't a piece of shit, or was a better human being.

I think there are very bad things about either winning, I think Kamala and her policies are bad for the country. I am sure she is a much nicer person than Trump.

 

[Rifler]

I think there are very bad things about either winning, I think Kamala and her policies are bad for the country. I am sure she is a much nicer person than Trump.

I can agree with this,.. I can also live without "nice".

 

[Obviously Oblivious]

IEM has 2 markets for president- popular vote and winner takes all. I only follow the winner takes all which is the electoral college.

The IEM WTA market is also based on popular vote nationwide, it has nothing to do with the electoral college results.

 

[Nole Lou]

I sometimes wonder if what has been driving the polls lately is inflated nonsense from sympathetic rightwing groups. It just doesn’t seem logical for Trump to be picking up this much momentum in the last month. There just aren’t enough undecideds out there that would be moving the needle in favor of Trump this much. Trump is not a new wildcard candidate that is drawing tons of interest. His arenas look half full at best a lot of nights.

It would make sense if there are some purposely inflated polls out there to get the MAGA idiot brigade riled up once Trump loses. I’m truly convinced nearly all MAGAts would rather burn the country down than see Kamala and the Democrats win.

I can answer that actually, I saw it somewhere. First of all, it's not THAT much momentum...its close, it has stayed close, and so everyone reacts to 1% swings. Understandably, because it's all we get. It isn't actually moving the needle that much.

But Trump's (tiny) improvement is from shoring up Republicans. I can't remember the exact numbers, but Trump went from like 85% among Rs to 95% or something. Whatever hold outs among Rs that were waiting to give Kamala a chance have fallen in behind Trump. Maybe some were in the RFK camp or something as well.

But that's the main difference in his tightening things up in national polls.

 

[bunsen82]

The IEM WTA market is also based on popular vote nationwide, it has nothing to do with the electoral college results.

Yes I see that now.

 

[Obviously Oblivious]

PJ, you're misconstruing Art's point. In essence, he thinks there's a greater propensity for violence if Harris wins. He's probably right, but that is a far cry from him somehow suggesting that people should not vote for Harris.

From my perspective, that potential for violence exists for both outcomes, and frankly, if a Trump victory would in fact be as bad as the phrasing of your question might suggest, I'm honestly not sure why the left would (or for that matter, should) refrain from violence. I mean, wouldn't democracy be worth fighting for if you believed it was at risk? So I tend to think that probability of left-violence may be a little higher than many people imagine, though it may take a slightly different form or focus on slightly different "targets." (I say this as the guy who had a car burning out of control below his downtown office window one cold winter day in January 2017.)

Like all of those scary women on the national plaza in pink hats?

 

[Aardvark86]

Like all of those scary women on the national plaza in pink hats?

pLUS about 73 for Count Floyd pull.

I dont think the pink hats were setting car fires, but to your point (and mine), maybe...just maybe...the whole "death of democracy" thing is charged campaign rhetoric?

 

[Obviously Oblivious]

pLUS about 73 for Count Floyd pull.

I dont think the pink hats were setting car fires, but to your point (and mine), maybe...just maybe...the whole "death of democracy" thing is charged campaign rhetoric?

Certainly it is, and you’re right, Antifa had a grand old time having a rock and fire fight on Trumps Inauguration Day. Sucks your vehicle became collateral damage. I’m not cool with any of that, some of us have lost the ability to peacefully protest unfortunately.

 

[torbee]

I still believe she hangs on, but it's really hard to know the way his momentum has picked up, and her campaign's posture has turned from optimism to concern.

What I've been wondering is if this "momentum" is actually real or more just the vibe/zeitgeist.

Nothing good has happened to the Trump campaign in the past 3 weeks - in fact, it's been mostly bad stuff like his former top general saying he likes Hitler and his rallies devolving into racist grievance fests.

It feels to me like the usual Democrat paranoia and hand wringing ramping up while the MAGATs remain blissfully tethered in non-reality thinking their guy can't possibly lose.

Very similar to the 2022 congressional elections.

We shall see. I am definitely one of the paranoid hand-wringers.

 

[pjhawk]

I sometimes wonder if what has been driving the polls lately is inflated nonsense from sympathetic rightwing groups. It just doesn’t seem logical for Trump to be picking up this much momentum in the last month. There just aren’t enough undecideds out there that would be moving the needle in favor of Trump this much. Trump is not a new wildcard candidate that is drawing tons of interest. His arenas look half full at best a lot of nights.

It would make sense if there are some purposely inflated polls out there to get the MAGA idiot brigade riled up once Trump loses. I’m truly convinced nearly all MAGAts would rather burn the country down than see Kamala and the Democrats win.

The idea that Trump has "momentum" is based on a swing in the polls of just a point or two, in past cycles making the kind of broad generalizations people seem to be making on that type of evidence would have been considered ludicrous.

 

[Tom Paris]

What I've been wondering is if this "momentum" is actually real or more just the vibe/zeitgeist.

Nothing good has happened to the Trump campaign in the past 3 weeks - in fact, it's been mostly bad stuff like his former top general saying he likes Hitler and his rallies devolving into racist grievance fests.

It feels to me like the usual Democrat paranoia and hand wringing ramping up while the MAGATs remain blissfully tethered in non-reality thinking their guy can't possibly lose.

Very similar to the 2022 congressional elections.

We shall see. I am definitely one of the paranoid hand-wringers.

If Trump wins I am preparing for the same feeling I had after the Commanders' Hail Mary against my Bears. Basically sick to my stomach and helpless. Except the Bears can fight another day. American democracy isn't going to be able to, I'm afraid.

 

[hawkeyetraveler]

What I've been wondering is if this "momentum" is actually real or more just the vibe/zeitgeist.

Nothing good has happened to the Trump campaign in the past 3 weeks - in fact, it's been mostly bad stuff like his former top general saying he likes Hitler and his rallies devolving into racist grievance fests.

It feels to me like the usual Democrat paranoia and hand wringing ramping up while the MAGATs remain blissfully tethered in non-reality thinking their guy can't possibly lose.

Very similar to the 2022 congressional elections.

We shall see. I am definitely one of the paranoid hand-wringers.

Exactly. I think it is one of two narratives, I just don’t know which is right.

Narrative 1:

• Independents and never Trumpers that voted for Biden will either sit this one out or vote third party
• Trump gets his whole base out in spades
• Dems get a few more women and young people to vote, but not enough to offset the gap in independents
• Trump wins narrowly

Narrative 2:

• The polls are not correctly balancing just how many women, young people and independents will vote
• These groups go strong for Harris
• Trump gets his entire base, but loses some GOP who voted for him in 2020
• Kamala wins and it is anywhere from a narrow 270-268 win or she crushes him

I don’t think we will know until a few days after the election.

 

[Huey Grey]

If Trump wins I am preparing for the same feeling I had after the Commanders' Hail Mary against my Bears. Basically sick to my stomach and helpless. Except the Bears can fight another day. American democracy isn't going to be able to, I'm afraid.

Women are out voting men 55-45%. And this split has held the entire early voting time period. Trump is in serious trouble if this continues.

 

[Aardvark86]

Certainly it is, and you’re right, Antifa had a grand old time having a rock and fire fight on Trumps Inauguration Day. Sucks your vehicle became collateral damage. I’m not cool with any of that, some of us have lost the ability to peacefully protest unfortunately.

Thankfully it was not my car, though I wasn't really that down with the idea of a large open flame and a gasoline tank outside my office window.

You are sadly right - people seem to have forgotten the "peaceful" part.

 

[RagnarLothbrok]

I can answer that actually, I saw it somewhere. First of all, it's not THAT much momentum...its close, it has stayed close, and so everyone reacts to 1% swings. Understandably, because it's all we get. It isn't actually moving the needle that much.

But Trump's (tiny) improvement is from shoring up Republicans. I can't remember the exact numbers, but Trump went from like 85% among Rs to 95% or something. Whatever hold outs among Rs that were waiting to give Kamala a chance have fallen in behind Trump. Maybe some were in the RFK camp or something as well.

But that's the main difference in his tightening things up in national polls.

The idea that Trump has "momentum" is based on a swing in the polls of just a point or two, in past cycles making the kind of broad generalizations people seem to be making on that type of evidence would have been considered ludicrous.

I’m actually looking more at the change in polling in swing states. In some cases, those seemed to change 4%-7% in favor of Trump, obviously depending on the poll, which I find very hard to believe.

The national polling means very little to me.

 

[torbee]

Women are out voting men 55-45%. And this split has held the entire early voting time period. Trump is in serious trouble if this continues.

You have a link for that? Not saying I don't believe you, but would feel better seing it in black and white!

 

[littlez]

I’m actually looking more at the change in polling in swing states. In some cases, those seemed to change 4%-7% in favor of Trump, obviously depending on the poll, which I find very hard to believe.

The national polling means very little to me.

Where are you seeing this? Almost everything I trust has the margin of error almost 1% either way in Michigan, PA, Wisconsin. If she wins those 3 states ( which I think she will) she wins the election. Maybe I'm not reading your post correctly but are you saying you're seeing Trump gaining that much in those states?

 

[Huey Grey]

You have a link for that? Not saying I don't believe you, but would feel better seing it in black and white!

» 2024 Early Voting UF Election Lab

election.lab.ufl.edu

 

[pjhawk]

I’m actually looking more at the change in polling in swing states. In some cases, those seemed to change 4%-7% in favor of Trump, obviously depending on the poll, which I find very hard to believe.

The national polling means very little to me.

Where are you seeing that? From what I can see the swing state polls have been static as well. Very very small shifts .5 of a point or under. see Wash post daily analysis

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/?itid=hp-top-table-main_p001_f010

 

[scotihawk]

I already have contact with Norway. I would be one of those purged under Trump. Just planning for worst case scenario.

I still think Harris wins

You are gonna look back in two weeks and see how silly you sound....

 

[Aardvark86]

» 2024 Early Voting UF Election Lab

election.lab.ufl.edu

Huey, I certainly agree that it's a positive demographic sign. That said...

1. I would continue to be cautious about the fact that it's simply "early votes cast by gender" without regard to who they were cast for.

2. This is a pretty significant limitation on the data:

Reporting states with gender data: CO, GA, ID, MI, NC, VA

Obviously some important ones in there.

3. While that 55-45 number sounds good, note that the same site's final numbers from 2016 were 56-42, and from 2022 (total votes) were 54-45 (no gender data on the site for 2020). So long story short, the number may indeed be good, and probably 'means' more than it once did in a post-Dobbs era, but that is not actually a number that is outperforming history.

 

[Gus is dead]

Huey, I certainly agree that it's a positive demographic sign. That said...

1. I would continue to be cautious about the fact that it's simply "votes cast by gender" without regard to who they were cast for.

2. This is a pretty significant limitation on the data:

Reporting states with gender data: CO, GA, ID, MI, NC, VA

Obviously some important ones in there.

3. While that 55-45 number sounds good, note that the same site's final numbers from 2016 were 56-42, and from 2022 (total votes) were 54-45 (no data on the site for 2020). So long story short, the number may indeed be good, and probably 'means' more than it once did in a post-Dobbs era, but that is not actually a number that is outperforming history.

Was just gonna post some of this. Thanks.

I'd also add that 41% of the early vote is seniorsand gen z 8% I don't think that if this is leaning female that this is the demo bias that puts Harris over the top.

Also total returned mail on ballots so far republicans are ahead 35.5 to 32.8.

In 2020 its was D>R 71 to 68 in the final returned mail in ballots.

Total In person early so far 40-31 R>D.

 

[Aardvark86]

Was just gonna post some of this. Thanks.

I'd also add that 41% of the early vote is seniorsand gen z 8% I don't think that if this is leaning female that this is the demo bias that puts Harris over the top.

oh i'd bet the 41% are the childless cat ladies who will absolutely break her way, but the 8% probably needs to be higher for her.