Why are you scared if you own 3 homes (love HBOT millionaires)
The race is breaking
- Thread starter GOHOX69
- Start date
Why are you scared if you own 3 homes (love HBOT millionaires)
It'll be a massive tax on the middle class as a whole.
Couple that w/ arresting and deporting the entire workforce that currently performs construction work and farm/crop/meat-packing butchering, and you're looking at a massive jump in food prices. While that will hurt at the grocery store, it will crush restaurants and fast food chains.
40% to 36% is a marginal advantage in early voting. But how does that compare to 2020? And what is the connection between this and expected final voting?
From what I have seen the margin for Democrats is much smaller than last election - Republicans are catching up. And, I don't see what this tells us other than Democrats are somewhat more likely to vote early than Republicans. The last I saw, it doesn't matter whether you vote early or vote on election day.
Let the record reflect that Jimmy is scared of wagering a 3 month self ban.
You're scared.
He's not as reliable as he used to be, either.
GOP is massively trying to 'game' the polls, to use them as "evidence" in voter fraud lawsuits, despite polls not providing a whit of evidence of any fraudulent votes. GOP learned in 2020 how effective that was in swaying public opinion, though.
yeah, shows big numbers for messaging purposes, narrows to come closer to actuals, then proclaims accuracy based on finals. I suspect the new (non Scott Rasmussen owners) are even worse.
And yet, US inflation has been no different that most of Europe.
Which means the impacts you are claiming from "printing money" are not as big as you think they are.
hawkeyetraveler
HB Heisman
We talking about the bill he signed in 2022? According to your own chart inflation was on its way down then.
Despite the fact a majority of posters think you are a wife beating prick I attempted to have a serious conversation with you about Trump. It appears all you want to do is play gotcha team politics. I thought maybe you had some valid thoughts on the matter. Instead true to form you decide to be a prick like many other MAGA rubes.
I hope you have a better day than you deserve.
To art's point, i don't think the suggestion is that there are more identifiable R ballots being cast than identifiable D ballots (that would be something indeed), it's that the proportion is more R than historically. The website you link to doesn't really provide any historical comparator.» 2024 Early Voting UF Election Lab
election.lab.ufl.edu
Now of course, none of that tells us anything, since we have precisely zero clue whether early R votes are essentially cannibalizing what might have been later R votes, or whether they are actually incremental or just a zero sum game. Same for D.
Do you think every registered R is voting for Trump these days?
Because the majority of his former staffers are not.
Why would we give Harris a break on the disastrous policies of this administration? I get why the far left wants us to not talk about inflation or the crisis the border car caused, but they're the top 2 issues nationally. Keep running on murdering babies, putting tampons in boys bathrooms and calling your political "enemies" nazis.
No idea what will happen, but obviously I don't think anyone should be counting a victory yet.
I do think the early vote/surge for Republicans, may not hold. I'm frankly shocked at how many Republican voters I've heard say "voting early, so they don't pull any funny business on election day"
This is a complete 180 in attitude from previous votes, where they ONLY wanted to vote on election day.
Vote whenever you want... and take off the tinfoil hats
I do think the early vote/surge for Republicans, may not hold. I'm frankly shocked at how many Republican voters I've heard say "voting early, so they don't pull any funny business on election day"
This is a complete 180 in attitude from previous votes, where they ONLY wanted to vote on election day.
Vote whenever you want... and take off the tinfoil hats
Do you think every Democrat is voting for the border czar and tampon Tim? Kennedy and tulsi certainly aren't.
Weird that Kamala has a higher turnover rate of staffers than Trump btw. And they say she's a drunken disaster.
You are the one with 3 houses. You don't see me bragging about as much. If your are true MAGA, you would be willing to bet your house.
absolutely not, and your point is a good one -- there is no more basis for recency bias assumptions with respect to the number of early votes cast than there is for the proportion that will go to each candidate. We have no idea. Though i do think at a macro level, R ballots will 'tend' to go R, and D ballots will 'tend' to go D.
It’s weird how much you seem to like talking about dicks and testicles when your group doesn’t care about gender.
ipsos indeed shows good numbers for her; interestingly, on silver's house effect ratings, it's at the top of the list in terms of +D (though still a full point or so less than, say, Rasmussen for R's). So yeah. good for her, but caution is in order
hawkeyetraveler
HB Heisman
I’m not doing this with you today Joe. I will leave with this parting point of view and let you have the last word (cause otherwise you will take this conversation into tomorrow):
Biden made US inflation worse than US inflation was before he came in office as a result of increasing money supply. Full stop. I’m voting Harris this cycle and can admit this.
- Was inflation still going up as a result of Trump - yes.
- Would Trump have done some similar things - probably, maybe not to the full extent as Biden, but hard to say
- Did we also have a supply chain crisis causing havoc -yes
- Did he outperform Europe - yes.
- Are US prices at least partially set by global market demand - yes, I understand your point, but…
- Are US prices exclusively set by global market demand - no, a major portion of the inflation number is under our own control. This is the aspect Biden made worse. Global prices have very little to do with many of the goods we buy domestically (eggs, milk are simple examples)
Even as is, the Republicans will do NOTHING that lowers costs. They almost always vote against anything that lowers costs of good and services. It's more lying and blaming things on the Democrats.
Translation: I will ignore the data being presented to me, because it does not support my hypothesis here.
My point is simply this:
There are likely to be more R defections to Harris (as is already well established among several key military leaders and prominent Rs) than there will be D defections to Trump.
You were offered a realistic wager where everyone on HROT could see the outcome in real time.
You look like a real pussy right now.
i wouldn't doubt that at all, but I also wouldn't doubt that whatever that defection rate might be, it might also be offset by increased volume of early R voters, and particularly if the early voters end up being incremental. I don't have a strong feeling whether the defection rate will be 'quite' what you think it will be. On the one hand, I don't think the average Trump voter gives a damn what an 'establishment' R thinks or does. On the other hand, I suspect that 'early' R voters will tend to lean slightly to the establishment types (though I've seen a perfectly decent anecdotal cases that they might not be). And again on the other hand, I think there were a healthy number of R defectors in 2020 as well. So again, really not much to pull strong inferences from, either in absolute or comparative terms.
I suppose if you assume comparable noise among pollsters, that's the utility of the polls and polling averages as a whole. As art pointed out earlier, there 'seems' to be a very mild trend (all still very much in the margin of error, with absolutely nothing seeming to be material) toward trump in battlegrounds. But one would have to be insane to call a single state right now based on any of them as a static matter.
People on both sides need to back off of the "big mo" or "sky is falling" messages, because neither is supportable.
BTW Joe, it's nice to have an actual conversation with you.
He's oddly obsessed. It's in almost every thread now. Gohox is legit coming unraveled
Just another Monday for him
Lulz
Founder Nate Silver left in 2023, taking the rights to his forecasting model with him to his website Silver Bulletin.[3][4][5] 538's new owner Disney hired G. Elliott Morris to develop a new model.[3][4] On September 18, 2023, the original website domain at fivethirtyeight.com was closed, and web traffic became redirected to ABC News pages.
Do you really think that I care about what you think of me?
I agree with a lot of this, certainly the part on any side claiming there is a landslide coming. As far as early vote, the key to me is just how high the numbers get towards last day to gauge overall turnout, the percentage of women to men (which are last I saw an eye popping near 11 percent more women) and how many non party affiliated / other which are a significant chunk and IMHO going to not break Trumps way.
This is a pretty cool site. For the 21 million plus votes that they have in their system for demographics the women to men and high number of other (almost 25 percent of voters) to me are positive to Democrats
» 2024 Early Voting UF Election Lab
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Not one bit. Nor should you.
But to be clear, you're the one that started this bet thing. When provided an offer of a realistic wager that everyone on HROT could see, you backed down.
yeah, no doubt that post election, people are going to be studying (or at least trying to study) the cross-tabs on early voting patterns VERY carefully.
Re: the landslide scenario, interestingly, when you look at the 538 model simulation, it's fascinating that while the model currently gives an overall slight edge to Trump (54-45), Harris' probability curve has a lot more high-margin outcome possibilities. I'm not sure which profile an 'actual' statistician would rather have.
Indeed. And we are in uncharted waters since in 2020 we had a huge push to vote remote due to Covid and less trust on right about mail in ballots.
Exactly. We are basically in 'year one' of early voting elections.
