The stock market is overvalued

[Gonolz]

I know there has been recent good news on earnings and GDP and etcetra, but the S&P 500 in my opinion is way overvalued. The Fed has indicated more rate increases are in order. The effect of past increases is delayed. I see a recession happening in the next 6 months. The market has had its best half year in many years. Time to short the market. And I did in a big way today. Perhaps too early in the day, but we shall see. I may go broke or get rich(er). I make mistakes all the time. I took profits on TSLA in the 170s and it kept going up. It's all fun.

What are your views on the market?

 

[mnole03]

I question earnings numbers from a bunch of companies. Lots of accounting gains in the first half of 2023.

 

[Hawgk]

Great time to buy if you’re long. Just heard Jeremy Speigal saying most projected earnings need revised upward. If you wait for rates to pull back, you’re going to be late to the game. Still a lot of good buys in cyclicals, tech probably overpriced right now, but the AI buzz has momentum.

 

[The Tradition]

What are your views on the market?

Buy low; sell high.

Honestly, I just do dollar-cost-averaging and don't worry about the market.

 

[Gonolz]

Great time to buy if you’re long. Just heard Jeremy Speigal saying most projected earnings need revised upward. If you wait for rates to pull back, you’re going to be late to the game. Still a lot of good buys in cyclicals, tech probably overpriced right now, but the AI buzz has momentum.

I'm long only on certain individually picked stocks. As my original post said, I just went short on the market as a whole. Speigal is alright sometimes, but I think he is wrong now. Earnings likely will fall before going up. I think late to the game is 3-5 months out. Tech is overpriced in general, but so is a lot else. Trad, I understand is a dollar-cost-averager. That is smart for those who don't understand the market and don't like to gamble. I like to gamble high stakes when I understand the game.

 

[An Iowa fan]

I know there has been recent good news on earnings and GDP and etcetra, but the S&P 500 in my opinion is way overvalued. The Fed has indicated more rate increases are in order. The effect of past increases is delayed. I see a recession happening in the next 6 months. The market has had its best half year in many years. Time to short the market. And I did in a big way today. Perhaps too early in the day, but we shall see. I may go broke or get rich(er). I make mistakes all the time. I took profits on TSLA in the 170s and it kept going up. It's all fun.

What are your views on the market?

What made you short today at this price level? I am not trying to be a smart alec. I am curious as I have always been a technical trader. I was thinking you see something that I don’t.
End of quarter? 4450 level on the SPX?

 

[StormHawk42]

I’m sure it’s overvalued but market timing is a fool’s errand so I don’t really worry about it.

 

[BustingNarratives]

S&P 500 multiples getting a little elevated but NASDAQ seems even more frothy. Been accumulating NVDA for 5+ years and may finally start selling some along with some QQQ next week and park it elsewhere. Still some decent buys out there though. DE has bounced back and may be a good buy now.

 

[Gonolz]

What made you short today at this price level? I am not trying to be a smart alec. I am curious as I have always been a technical trader. I was thinking you see something that I don’t.
End of quarter? 4450 level on the SPX?

I look at the technicals, fundamental and macro environment. End of quarter factored in too. End of quarter all the funds want to buy the winners which drives up prices artificially. Macro, Powell has said there may be more interest rate increases and the so called good news economically only increases likelihood of that. Macro, there is a delay in how the interest rates affect things, that is still coming. Fundamentals, multiples are too high and as I said in earlier post, I disagree that earnings will be adjusted upwards this quarter. Technical, I was looking at 4450 as a top. All com

 

[NDallasRuss]

NO, YOU'RE OVER VALUED!!!!



love you!!

 

[Gonolz]

S&P 500 multiples getting a little elevated but NASDAQ seems even more frothy. Been accumulating NVDA for 5+ years and may finally start selling some along with some QQQ next week and park it elsewhere. Still some decent buys out there though. DE has bounced back and may be a good buy now.

I missed NVDA on the way up and didn't get in. I would avoid now. I bought Intel at its absolute low and am still holding but thinking of selling before recession.

 

[Gonolz]

NO, YOU'RE OVER VALUED!!!!



love you!!

Is this your way of asking if you can borrow my mansion at the beach, again?

 

[mnole03]

S&P 500 multiples getting a little elevated but NASDAQ seems even more frothy. Been accumulating NVDA for 5+ years and may finally start selling some along with some QQQ next week and park it elsewhere. Still some decent buys out there though. DE has bounced back and may be a good buy now.

I like the product from NVDA, but it has enormous Taiwan exposure.

 

[desihawk]

the market’s doing well despite rate hikes telegraphing and downturns in eu and china and signs of bank stress a few weeks ago. i wonder whether all that “bad” news is somehow already priced in and there’s some opportunities for the usa that are currently invisible but will make themselves known shortly.

 

[Fijimn]

I know there has been recent good news on earnings and GDP and etcetra, but the S&P 500 in my opinion is way overvalued. The Fed has indicated more rate increases are in order. The effect of past increases is delayed. I see a recession happening in the next 6 months. The market has had its best half year in many years. Time to short the market. And I did in a big way today. Perhaps too early in the day, but we shall see. I may go broke or get rich(er). I make mistakes all the time. I took profits on TSLA in the 170s and it kept going up. It's all fun.

What are your views on the market?

Why? The US is far better and ahead of inflation compared to the rest industrial world. You suggest a recession without a basis and what’s the consequences. Strange to “short” the entire marked.

 

[NDallasRuss]

Is this your way of asking if you can borrow my mansion at the beach, again?

Always! I dream someday of living the Gonolz lifestyle!

Related: I'm moving back to TX. This time next year I'll have to have you out to my new place for a long weekend!!

 

[Gonolz]

Why? The US is far better and ahead of inflation compared to the rest industrial world. You suggest a recession without a basis and what’s the consequences. Strange to “short” the entire marked.

The US compared to the world inflation is a foreign currency play. My suggestion of a recession is not without a basis. Interest rate increases will have consequences and those consequences take time. It is not strange to short the entire market over a short term. Long term the market will go up. That is why Trad's suggestion of investing over time and not worrying about it makes sense for most people. However, there have been periods where the market is overvalued and goes down significantly in a short period of time. For those willing to actively trade and be agile, that is an opportunity to make money.

 

[kcnole63]

I'm long only on certain individually picked stocks. As my original post said, I just went short on the market as a whole. Speigal is alright sometimes, but I think he is wrong now. Earnings likely will fall before going up. I think late to the game is 3-5 months out. Tech is overpriced in general, but so is a lot else. Trad, I understand is a dollar-cost-averager. That is smart for those who don't understand the market and don't like to gamble. I like to gamble high stakes when I understand the game.

Sounds like you are trying to influence others to sell so that you will make money (and they will lose). With social media, it has become easier and easier to influence the market.

 

[markfromj]

Not over-valued. Valued at exactly what millions of investors think it is worth.

 

[markfromj]

Great time to buy if you’re long.

?

 

[Fijimn]

The US compared to the world inflation is a foreign currency play. My suggestion of a recession is not without a basis. Interest rate increases will have consequences and those consequences take time. It is not strange to short the entire market over a short term. Long term the market will go up. That is why Trad's suggestion of investing over time and not worrying about it makes sense for most people. However, there have been periods where the market is overvalued and goes down significantly in a short period of time. For those willing to actively trade and be agile, that is an opportunity to make money.

It’s not a foreign currency arbitrage, if that’s what you’re suggesting—considering the international issues with inflation.

 

[markfromj]

Dude shorts and the bad mouths the market.

Hmmm.

 

[Fijimn]

Always! I dream someday of living the Gonolz lifestyle!

Related: I'm moving back to TX. This time next year I'll have to have you out to my new place for a long weekend!!

I’d hold off moving. We’ve had three weeks straight of 100 plus.

 

[Gonolz]

Sounds like you are trying to influence others to sell so that you will make money (and they will lose). With social media, it has become easier and easier to influence the market.

Dude, that is seriously a moronic response. I'm shorting the S&P 500, basically the largest market in the world. Even if the HROT billionaire crew were worth what they claimed, that market would not move a tick. You should exit this thread in shame.

 

[Gonolz]

Dude shorts and the bad mouths the market.

Hmmm.

Ditto.

 

[NDallasRuss]

I’d hold off moving. We’ve had three weeks straight of 100 plus.

Oh I know!! I've re-thunk it over and over, but my mom's been asking me to move back for 19 years, and I think it's time. I'll get to be closer to all the family, and the daughter who's in waco. But, yeah, I'm giving up some of the best weather in the country, in exchange for Satan's ballsack.

 

[ANYCHawk]

What are your views on the market?

that every one of the HROT experts market predictions have been wrong since 2019.


Anyone find @83Hawk and his bread lines yet?

 

[thewop]

I think you're right OP. My market based retirement accounts are back to within 12% of when trump left office.

Bidenomics baby

 

[Fijimn]

Oh I know!! I've re-thunk it over and over, but my mom's been asking me to move back for 19 years, and I think it's time. I'll get to be closer to all the family, and the daughter who's in waco. But, yeah, I'm giving up some of the best weather in the country, in exchange for Satan's ballsack.

It’s so bad. My Galveston born wife is ready to move.

 

[Fijimn]

I think you're right OP. My market based retirement accounts are back to within 12% of when trump left office.

Bidenomics baby

Then you have shitty investment advice or caretaker of your crappy IRA.

 

[Gonolz]

Oh I know!! I've re-thunk it over and over, but my mom's been asking me to move back for 19 years, and I think it's time. I'll get to be closer to all the family, and the daughter who's in waco. But, yeah, I'm giving up some of the best weather in the country, in exchange for Satan's ballsack.

Wish you the best with the move, bro. It's beem too long since we have gotten together. I will be back in NoVa week of July 10th if you are around. I still have my old number, not sure that I have yours after I switched phones.

 

[NDallasRuss]

Wish you the best with the move, bro. It's beem too long since we have gotten together. I will be back in NoVa week of July 10th if you are around. I still have my old number, not sure that I have yours after I switched phones.

The XX83 number??

 

[Gonolz]

The xx83 number??

yes.

 

[Gonolz]

The XX83 number??

Cool. Nice to connect with you again. We can get together week after next. Since there seem to be some people in this thread who think social media posts can influence an entire market (*cough* not just Gamestop *cough*), please post a lot of negative posts about the market on social media. If you are successful in bringing down the market so that I make a lot of money, my beach house that you love is yours.

 

[NDallasRuss]

Cool. Nice to connect with you again. We can get together week after next. Since there seem to be some people in this thread who think social media posts can influence an entire market (*cough* not just Gamestop *cough*), please post a lot of negative posts about the market on social media. If you are successful in bringing down the market so that I make a lot of money, my beach house that you love is yours.

That's all I need!

Spreading "the sky is falling!" posts on all my social media!

I'm looking forward to getting together to catch up!!

 

[Gonolz]

What made you short today at this price level? I am not trying to be a smart alec. I am curious as I have always been a technical trader. I was thinking you see something that I don’t.
End of quarter? 4450 level on the SPX?

I am curious. You are a technical trader. What is your analysis? The momentum is heading north, but an overall evaluation is telling me to short. As a technical guy, where are you seeing the primary levels of support and resistance?

 

[kcnole63]

Dude, that is seriously a moronic response. I'm shorting the S&P 500, basically the largest market in the world. Even if the HROT billionaire crew were worth what they claimed, that market would not move a tick. You should exit this not thread in shame.

Yes, I should have known better than to respond to a dipshit that comes on a message board giving his "expert" advice on the market. For the record, I think most of the regulars on HROT are smart enough to not make their investment decisions on the opinions of a fellow poster. I also realize that even if all of us on this message board took your advice, it would not make a dent in the market. My comment regarding social media was meant for much larger platforms such as twitter.

 

[Gonolz]

Yes, I should have known better than to respond to a dipshit that comes on a message board giving his "expert" advice on the market. For the record, I think most of the regulars on HROT are smart enough to not make their investment decisions on the opinions of a fellow poster. I also realize that even if all of us on this message board took your advice, it would not make a dent in the market. My comment regarding social media was meant for much larger platforms such as twitter.

I will concede that I can be quite a dipshit, but I did not provide "expert" advice on the market. I simply publicly stated my dipshit move and some reasons why I did it, so if I somehow do not get lucky (which I sometimes do ), the entire board will be able to laugh at me and tell me how wrong I was. That provides good entertainment. This board is all about good entertainment for those who don't take the internets too seriously.

 

[DirtyJohns97]

I bought 200 shares of NFLX at 64 and sold them at 53. This is pre 7:1 split. Thanks Obama

 

[Obviously Oblivious]

Up, down, turn around. That’s what the market does.

Best investment advice I can give people is to get in the game as early as possible and stay in the game until it’s time to cash out (or pass down your inheritance)