The stock market is overvalued
- Thread starter Gonolz
- Start date
How’s that shorting the market working out for you? LOL
Nearing all-time highs, pretty wild all things considered.
That's not what Trump said would happen..
He lied???
My 401k is larger than when I retired 5+ years ago and that's with monthly withdrawals outside of a few months during Trump virus.
Thanks, Brandon.
The big short I made when I started the thread, I made a lot and got out. The last one I posted, I made a little. I've dipped my toes in here or there short with some hedges this week and been smacked around a little. If not for writing puts as a hedge and earning significant premiums, I would have been smacked around a lot. Fighting a raging bull can get rough. As with sex, when playing in the markets, if it ain't rough, it ain't right. Nothing good comes easy. I'm still up significantly on my net short trades, and my select individual long stocks are kicking ass, so all is good.
Loads as big as your mom sees.
Still some unrealized gains but once earnings and dividend pays might unload some more.
Well, it didn't reach 4700 to 4750. Probably get a bounce here at 4290, but there will be more down later.
Off to play pickle ball.
Never made it to 4700 on the first trip up and it never made 4290. But we did have a leg down and three wave move back up. Now we are in the next leg down. Let it play out. You should be making money on the downside now.
Technical analysis is astrology for men.
It's not that complicated. The market is extremely overvalued and being propped up by 7 stocks and 0 DTE pumps. Inflation is accelerating again (and will continue to as oil continues to rocket), the consumer is tapped out (high debt and no savings), the banks are screwed with their underwater treasuries, and the bond market is pricing things extremely different than equities.
I've been shorting this piece of shit for a while now if you couldn't tell.
Whoever has been pumping the market where it went up like 40% in 4 months for no reason whatsoever seems to be losing grip. If JPMs long puts at 4210 go ITM before they roll the contracts, we will be drilling.
It's not that complicated. The market is extremely overvalued and being propped up by 7 stocks and 0 DTE pumps. Inflation is accelerating again (and will continue to as oil continues to rocket), the consumer is tapped out (high debt and no savings), the banks are screwed with their underwater treasuries, and the bond market is pricing things extremely different than equities.
I've been shorting this piece of shit for a while now if you couldn't tell.
Whoever has been pumping the market where it went up like 40% in 4 months for no reason whatsoever seems to be losing grip. If JPMs long puts at 4210 go ITM before they roll the contracts, we will be drilling.
We all have methods and reasons to put on trades.
When we get five waves down from this last high I expect the market to go back close to the highs. If I am wrong I know how to realize it.
I’m not sure where this leg down comes to an end but we should have a ways to go yet.
I was exaggerating, but it literally went from 3850 to about 4600 in about 4 months because people said AI on an earnings call 80 times.
Some cycle guys have been calling for a low on October 20 (plus or minus a day or two). They have been saying this for a couple of months. Maybe it is an acceleration point instead. Acceleration to the downside I mean. Will know soon.
Futures down another 50 bps. If we go below 4100 today (long shot) there won't be any brakes on the way down. Mag 7 still overvalued as hell, but with Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon earnings this week, things could get interesting. We'll see if 7 stocks can keep this circus running for another quarter.
Another old saying: Be a trend follower, not a trend fighter.
We are in a spot where the SPX could go down in a hurry. The set up is there.
The SPX might get the ball rolling here. Be patient.
There is a gap at 4067 in the es that buying
will show up. We will have to see how the market reacts. Does it just chew its way through that buying now or later?
There is a gap at 4067 in the es that buying
will show up. We will have to see how the market reacts. Does it just chew its way through that buying now or later?
Haha... no kidding. Here is a newsflash for some of you. Fear is driving the markets right now and historically 3 of the worst months of the year are August, September and October. Anyone want to take a guess at 2 of the historically best months to own stocks?
Santa Clause is coming.
No. And absolutely nowhere did I say that. I do, however, have quite a bit of cash right now that I will be dumping in the market if the S and p drops below 4100, which I suspect it will.
Why would you not try to time the market? That old ass saying is just to get your 401k to hold their bags. I think you're a complete fool of you have any money in equities right now. It's all speculative, over priced horse dung. Meanwhile bonds and money market funds whipping out 5% risk free. Sign me up.
Uh, because timing the markets doesn't work for a majority of investors. It has been proven over, and over, and over to be a lost cause for most investors. What does work, however, is simple rebalancing when we reach market highs and corrections/bear markets.
Oh, and please explain why you think equities are over priced. They are looking pretty attractive to me.
I wouldn't consider recognizing that equities are overvalued and the macro of our economy is a complete dumpster fire being a trader. All I've been saying is that if you have significant capital in equities, I would be very careful.
I've been a good 80% cash for damn near 2 years now.
Still ahead of the game if I would have left it in the market.
Still ahead of the game if I would have left it in the market.
Trends are certainly positive.
The biggest factor to me remains transportation costs to ship products to retailers.
And the ME turmoil doesn't seem to be affecting markets much.
Moar good news, please!!!!
The biggest factor to me remains transportation costs to ship products to retailers.
And the ME turmoil doesn't seem to be affecting markets much.
Moar good news, please!!!!
