Excellent. Grain out of Ukraine, and weapons in.
Also, just reading Carpathians makes me think of Lord Vigo in Ghostbusters 2.
Excellent. Grain out of Ukraine, and weapons in.
@KevinMcCarthy.
Ukraine has issues, too, but you gotta believe that if they win this thing there is going to a lot of f****** going on when the troops come home.Putin’s War Escalation Is Hastening Demographic Crash for Russia
- Population is set for historic decline as fertility rate drops
- Economy also at risk from migration outflows, aging workforce
President Vladimir Putin spent years racing against Russia’s demographic clock, only to order an invasion of Ukraine that’s consigning his country’s population to a historic decline.
Besides casualties in the thousands on the battlefield, the enlistment of 300,000 reservists to join the fight -- and an even bigger flight of men abroad -- is derailing Putin’s goals of starting to stabilize the population already this year.
Crippling disruptions from the war are converging with a population crisis rooted in the 1990s, a period of economic hardship after the Soviet breakup that sent fertility rates plunging. Independent demographer Alexei Raksha is calling it “a perfect storm.”
Russia Is Heading Toward Demographic Precipice
Number of births is plunging as mortality worsens
Source: Federal Statistics Service
Note: Estimates for 2023-2024 from Gaidar Institute's Igor Efremov
Plans by Putin’s government had set the goal of starting to reverse the decline in the population in 2022 before growth should resume in 2030. Yet weeks before the mobilization was announced in September, an internal report drafted for a closed-door meeting showed officials were already concluding those targets were unrealistic.
Citing the consequences of the coronavirus and migration outflows, the report instead proposed a revision that envisaged a decrease of 416,700 people in 2030.
Should military operations continue in the coming months, as expected, Russia may see less than 1.2 million births next year, the lowest in modern history, according to Igor Efremov, a researcher and specialist in demographics at the Gaidar Institute in Moscow. Total deaths in Russia average close to 2 million annually, though the number increased during the pandemic and approached 2.5 million last year.
‘Chief Blow’
“The chief blow to the birth rate will be indirect, because most families will have their planning horizon completely destroyed as a result,” Efremov said. “And the impact will be stronger the longer the mobilization lasts.”
A demographic reckoning has arrived for Russia, its economy starved of young employees and now at risk of stagnation or worse long after the war is over. Bloomberg Economics now estimates Russia’s potential growth rate at 0.5%, down two percentage points from before the war -- with demographics accounting for about a quarter of the downgrade.
Unfavorable demographics in the areas of Ukraine that Putin plans to annex is only likely to add to the challenges Russia faces from a growing population burden, Renaissance Capital economists said in a report this month.
While demographic traumas usually play out over decades, the fallout of the invasion is making the worst scenarios more likely -- and much sooner than expected.
The mobilization is upending families at perhaps the most fraught moment ever for Russian demographics, with the number of women of childbearing age down by about a third in the past decade. It’s also coinciding with one of the highest death rates in the world as well as a depleted and graying labor market, alongside immigration outflows and questions about Russia’s ability to attract workers from abroad.
For Putin, who just turned 70, Russian demography has long been an existential issue, and just last year he declared that “saving the people of Russia is our top national priority.” He’s presided over efforts to buy time with costly policies that contributed to a steep gain in longevity and ranged from lump payments for new mothers to mortgage relief for families.
But as Russia approached the invasion of Ukraine in February, it was coming off its deadliest year since World War II -- made worse by the pandemic -- with the population in decline since 2018. It reached 145.1 million on Aug. 1, a fall of 475,500 since the start of the year and down from 148.3 million in 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed.
The continuation of the military campaign and mobilization until the end of next spring would be “catastrophic,” according to Efremov, likely bringing births down to just 1 million in the 12 months to mid-2024. The fertility rate may reach 1.2 children per woman, he said, a level Russia saw only once in 1999-2000.
A fertility rate of 2.1 is needed to keep populations stable without migration.
It depends on the mission and distance. Usually infantry will use a mechanized method (vehicles/helicopters) to get close to the mission area then go the rest on foot.Question for people with experience during wartime: do most troops travel on foot, or by troop transport carrier?
It's like watching the miles roll up on my odometer during a vacation.
At this rate, looks like Ukraine will be down to the Crimean border before the new year. From there they can penetrate far enough for uncle HIMARS to hit Sevastopol to the west, and the Kerch bridge to the east. Just a function of time.Does anyone else feel like we're just waiting for Russia to complete repairs on the Crimea bridge so that we can begin betting on how and when Ukraine will hit it again?
Feels like a trap
I don’t think anyone here doesn’t think Ukraine has paid a terrible price in blood. We just cheer on their successes.This thread is awesome but this assessment is more sobering than what's been posted in the thread....
It's not a one way street as far as casualties go...
America’s top general has estimated that 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in Ukraine, and that Kyiv’s armed forces have “probably” suffered a similar level of casualties in the war.
The figures provided by Milley – which could not be independently confirmed – are the most precise to date from the US government more than eight months into the war. His remarks offer the highest US estimate of casualties in the nearly nine-month conflict to date, and came as Ukraine and Russia face a potential winter lull in fighting that experts say could offer an opportunity for some kind of negotiations.
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US estimates 200,000 military casualties on all sides in Ukraine war
US general’s remarks come as experts say potential winter lull in fighting could offer chance for negotiationswww.theguardian.com
I still don't think there will be a winter pause-Ukraine will continue to methodically grind Russia into the earth.This thread is awesome but this assessment is more sobering than what's been posted in the thread....
It's not a one way street as far as casualties go...
America’s top general has estimated that 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in Ukraine, and that Kyiv’s armed forces have “probably” suffered a similar level of casualties in the war.
The figures provided by Milley – which could not be independently confirmed – are the most precise to date from the US government more than eight months into the war. His remarks offer the highest US estimate of casualties in the nearly nine-month conflict to date, and came as Ukraine and Russia face a potential winter lull in fighting that experts say could offer an opportunity for some kind of negotiations.
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US estimates 200,000 military casualties on all sides in Ukraine war
US general’s remarks come as experts say potential winter lull in fighting could offer chance for negotiationswww.theguardian.com
from the article....Miley isn't a Russian "stooge".I still don't think there will be a winter pause-Ukraine will continue to methodically grind Russia into the earth.
Most of Ukraine's casualties probably came in the first few months of the war. Everyday they grow stronger while Russia gets weaker. IMO they must keep on the pressure as best they can.
Don't "freeze" 'em
Reading this thread one would think that....I think Miley's assessment is a little more sobering.I still don't think there will be a winter pause-Ukraine will continue to methodically grind Russia into the earth.
Most of Ukraine's casualties probably came in the first few months of the war. Everyday they grow stronger while Russia gets weaker. IMO they must keep on the pressure as best they can.
He is right. When Russia is ready to stop the bloodshed and remove its armies from sovereign Ukrainian territory, UKR absolutely needs to cooperate.from the article....Miley isn't a Russian "stooge".
Asked about prospects for diplomacy in Ukraine, Milley said the early refusal to negotiate in the first world war compounded human suffering and led to millions more casualties. “So when there is an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved: seize the moment,” Milley said.
He is right. When Russia is ready to stop the bloodshed and remove its armies from sovereign Ukrainian territory, UKR absolutely needs to cooperate.