Before the snows come the rains, which fill the trenches snaking through the shattered landscape with water: cold water that in some places laps the tops of boots and leaves soldiers' feet wet, freezing -- and without care, potentially gangrenous.
And then the ground freezes, which means it's harder to dig the trenches in the first place.
Winter has come finally to Russia's nearly 10-month-old invasion of Ukraine, with the most ferocious fighting shifting from the south to the eastern Donbas region, where Russian troops are pummeling the city of Bakhmut and Ukrainian forces are trying to consolidate their gains further to the north.
What's new at this stage in the war is cold: freezing temperatures inflict misery on troops, mechanical grief on gears and vehicles, and torpor on movement and strategy. For military observers, it's an open question whether the cold will freeze the conflict until the spring, or whether one side will be able to take advantage.
But even if the Ukrainians do manage to seize the initiative, or the Russians make additional gains, the ground war will remain a source of misery for soldiers on both sides for months.
"It does suck, it's just going to be cold and wet, and there's no doubt about it," said Ben Hodges, a retired U.S. Army general who commanded U.S. forces in Europe between 2014 and 2018. "Weather is weather, dirt is dirt. There's not much you can do with that, even with technology," he told RFE/RL.
"But it will be much worse for the Russians than the Ukrainians," he said. "I say that from a material standpoint; Russians, newly mobilized soldiers who are not properly equipped, not joining cohesive units, no leadership."
Trench Toil
Snow is already blanketing swaths of northeastern and eastern Ukraine, where the Donbas is located, and temperatures have hovered below freezing for much of the country as well.
Repeated Russian missile fusillades have destroyed much of the country's electricity and heating infrastructure, leaving millions in cities and towns struggling to stay warm, plug in their phones, or simply flush their toilets.
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Nearly 10 months in, Russia's invasion of Ukraine is now shifting to yet another phase: winter, with the misery it inflicts on troops and the difficulties it inflicts on weaponry. So, what will change in frigid conditions -- and which side will have the advantage?
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