This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...
- Thread starter Nole Lou
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You are pretty tough to follow.
Your stuff don’t savvy.
You are such a cynic. I like to be an optimist. Anyway, I’m still waiting for you to fill me in on my posting history to explain why a conservative and not an independent.
With my terrible memory that would be too much like work. I'll try to point out instances when I see them. Then again, with my terrible memory I may forget to do that.
The more interesting question that you may be able to answer - if you really think of yourself as independent, not conservative - is what are some independent positions that aren't liberal or left?
If you are referring to my last comment, I was putting words in Gaetz's mouth.
FWIW, although I am very unhappy about the Ukraine war, I do favor support to Ukraine. I'm just not in the camp that wants to level Moscow OR in the camp that wants to use Ukraine as a long-term testing ground for new weapons and tactics.
You’re the one going out of the way to cast stones, I don’t cast stones unless I intend to hit someone for a reason. So cast away with something specific. If you don’t, you are just bored and enjoy being a dick. If that is the case get a life.
I'm really sorry you feel that way. We've interacted for a long time and I have always thought of you as one of our better conservatives. Often wrong, of course - because you are a conservative - but good at discussing issues. It never occurred to me that you don't think of yourself as a conservative.
It's going to take me a while to believe it. But if you noticeably espouse non-con views, I'll come around.
Would still like to hear what you think are independent views.
And I would like to hear why you think I’m a conservative. Look, you singled me out. So just spit it out. If you have nothing to say, then just go away.
NATO expansion began as an effort by Clinton to get to the right of Dole on ‘defense’.
After Trump the neocons jumped totally on the Democrat’s bandwagon.
This was written about years ago. Hasn’t changed since.
"Explosions are ringing in Berdyansk and Sevastopol, the bridge of #Crimée is in smoke - the armed forces of #Ukraine launched a missile strike, they attacked the installations at #Berdyansk and Sevastapol.
Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries show the growing threat AI drones pose to energy markets
- Ukraine-launched drones have hit 18 Russian oil refineries with a combined capacity of 3.9 million barrels per day this year, according to JPMorgan.
- The investment bank estimates 670,000 bpd of Russian refining capacity is currently offline due to the strikes.
- Kyiv’s capabilities are growing, with drones demonstrating a longer range and utilizing artificial intelligence to improve precision.
Ukraine-launched drones have hit 18 Russian oil refineries this year with a combined capacity of 3.9 million barrels per day, according to report published by JPMorgan earlier this month. Some 670,000 bpd of Russian refining capacity is currently offline due to the strikes, according to the bank.
Ukraine’s capabilities are growing with its drones now demonstrating a substantially longer range. Earlier this month, Kyiv hit Russia’s third-largest oil refinery, Taneco, which is located up to 1,300 kilometers — roughly 800 miles — from the frontlines, according to JPMorgan.
Ukraine is increasingly using drones that are enabled with AI, which helps the weapons navigate and avoid jamming, according to the bank.
“The AI guidance also delivers strike precision, maximizing the impact of the strikes by targeting specific areas like distillation towers, repairs of which requires Western technology,” Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at JPMorgan, told clients in the April report. “This makes the repairs costly and often require equipment that the country is not able to produce.”
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made clear Tuesday that the Biden administration is worried about the strikes in a rare airing of public disagreement with U.S. allies in Kyiv.
“Certainly, those attacks could have a knock-on effect in terms of the global energy situation,” Austin told the Senate Armed Services Committee. “Quite frankly, I think Ukraine is better served in going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight.”
The U.S. has urged Ukraine to stop the attacks on Russian energy infrastructure out of concern that they could drive up crude oil prices and instigate retaliation from Moscow, three people familiar with the discussions told the Financial Times last month.
The losses to Russian refining capacity could worsen as Ukraine aims to build a full-fledge drone industry and produce a million units domestically this year, according to the JPMorgan report. If Kyiv is able to extend the drones’ range to 1,500 kilometers (about 932 miles), they could potentially hit 21 refineries with more than 4.4 million bpd of refined capacity, according to the report.
“There’s room for this to become a bigger problem, because we’ve come to count on Russian supply getting to the global market, which allows other non-Russian supply to go to other places,” said John Kilduff, an energy expert and founding partner at Again Capital.
The deployment of AI drones also has broader implications for global energy markets, according to Bob Brackett, a senior research analyst at Bernstein. The drones are cheap to produce compared to the millions of dollars in damage they can cause and could empower nonstate actors to challenge superior fighting forces, Brackett told clients in Friday note.
“These drones can easily and asymmetrically disrupt global seaborne trade,” Brackett wrote, warning that oil exporters such as Russia aren’t the only countries that need to be worried. Oil importers, like China and India, will now have to worry about disruptions to crude flows from drone attacks, he said.
Impact on oil, gasoline prices
Ukraine’s campaign of drone strikes comes at the same time as tensions are running red hot in the Middle East, with OPEC member Iran and Israel now teetering on the brink of a direct confrontation.U.S. crude oil has rallied nearly 20% this year, while the global benchmark Brent has gained 17% as the wars in Middle East and Eastern Europe rage against the backdrop of rising crude demand and tightening supply. Gasoline futures have surged about 33% since the year began.
Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy, said the drone strikes are not a major issue for oil prices right now because the attacks on refineries are primarily affecting Russia’s production of diesel at a time when the market is already glutted.
But Russia is also major exporter of a gasoline feedstock called naphtha. If naphta markets were to tighten because of the attacks it could have an impact on gas prices and balances, said McNally, who served as a senior energy official in the George W. Bush administration.
Goldman Sachs said in a research note last month that the strikes are bullish for diesel prices, but the impact on crude oil is mixed. Outages can lead to reduced oil demand from refineries, which is bearish for prices. But the market is worried Ukraine could increasingly hit oil production and transportation infrastructure, which would weigh on Russian crude exports, according to Goldman.
Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said the current strikes could have an indirect effect on oil markets. As Russian fuel exports decline due to the attacks, countries that rely on those exports then need to source fuel from refineries in other jurisdictions, Melek said. Those refiners need more crude to meet the demand which can stress oil supplies, he said.
Russian production already poses a problem for the Biden administration. Moscow has pledged to cut its oil output and exports by an additional 471,000 barrels per day in the second quarter to meet its commitments to OPEC+.
Those cuts could push the price of Brent crude to $100 by September, which will put pressure on the Biden administration just before the presidential election, according to a JPMorgan report last month.
The investment bank expects U.S. gas prices to hit $4 per gallon by May, the highest level since the summer of 2022.
“There are few issues that terrify a sitting American president in an election year more than surging gasoline prices,” said Rapidan’s McNally.
Looks like satchel charges and one went off earlier than they would have liked.
"Ukrainian military on two HMMWV armored vehicles conduct a raid on buildings occupied by the enemy in Krasnohorivka, Donetsk"
"Ukrainian military on two HMMWV armored vehicles conduct a raid on buildings occupied by the enemy in Krasnohorivka, Donetsk"
The leadership disbands the core of the 67th Mechanized Brigade
Investigations have been initiated against unit commanders.The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has launched the process of transferring all commanders and soldiers of the Ukrainian Volunteer Corps (DUK) of 67th Mechanized Brigade DUK to other military units. These fighters and commanders of DUK had formed the brigade and constituted its core fighting force.
The brigade’s press service reported, “The motives behind these actions are unknown to us. All attempts to halt this process and ascertain the reasons have been unsuccessful. Perhaps, some believe that dispersing DUK Right Sector fighters among various Armed Forces units will lead to the dissolution of DUK Right Sector.”
They further stated that numerous commissions are currently working within the brigade. These commissions are compiling lists of soldiers who have been defending Ukraine since 2014. Investigations have been initiated against unit commanders.
According to Ukrainska Pravda, there are suspicions that the 67th Mechanized Brigade DUK has abandoned positions near Chasiv Yar, resulting in Russian forces advancing to the town’s edge. The ongoing investigation reportedly revealed organization problems within the brigade, namely mistreat of mobilized soldiers, sending them first to hot spots and general separation from Right Sector members.
Ukrainska Pravda also spoke with a former soldier of 67th Mechanized Brigade and member of Right Sector, who said the root of the current problem lies in how volunteer units were integrated into the army, and arose when Sirsky took over the Armed Forces of Ukraine. “The brigade maintained some sort of autonomy under Valerii Zaluzhyi, but Oleksandr Sirskyi required order and discipline. They suddenly had to live according to military patterns, and commanders without necessary military rank were replaced. The volunteers saw it as the destruction of the movement, but in fact, it is a standardization.” the former soldier noted.
The leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has already created a new Facebook page of the 67th Mechanized Brigade, and removed Ukrainian Volunteer Corps (DUK) from its name. We’ll continue to follow the story and keep you updated.
There is an aspect of this entire thing that seems unreal:
Macron First Threatens Russia With Troops, Then Buys €600 Million Of Gas From Moscow In Q1 2024
At the same time that French President Emmanuel Macron is threatening to send troops to Ukraine to fight against Russia, his country is fueling the Russian war effort by purchasing €600 million worth of natural gas from Moscow in the first three months of 2024.According to new data, France is quietly paying more and more for Russian gas, even as France uses increasingly harsh rhetoric towards Russia.
In fact, the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) think tank indicates that Russian liquefied natural gas shipments saw a bigger increase in France than any other EU country last year. The €600 million France paid will undoubtedly help fuel Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.
Last month, Macron said France could not rule out sending troops to Ukraine, with the announcement sparking fierce debate across Europe.
Macron went so far as to call on fellow NATO allies to not be “cowards.”
Many European leaders reacted harshly to Macron’s statements, including several nations stating plainly they would not send any of their own troops to participate in the conflict.
France has continuously tried to justify its gas and oil purchases from Russia by arguing that it is locked into long-term contracts with Russia that are difficult to cancel.
Critics say that Macron could be doing more to reduce France’s reliance on natural gas from Russia, especially when he is claiming that France is one of Ukraine’s greatest allies.
Energy continues to be a bedrock for Russia’s revenue stream, with fossil fuels contributing up to half of its revenue streams.
Despite France and other EU countries continuing to actively purchase Russian oil and gas, as well as nuclear fuel, the EU’s efforts to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian energy have been largely successful, with the bloc reducing its consumption by two-thirds. However, there are questions about how accurate these purported figures actually are, as Europe has, for instance, drastically increased its purchases of natural gas and oil from India. In reality, much of these energy products come from Russia, with India simply serving as a middleman and skimming extra profit off the sales.
Europe continues to spend billions on Russian liquified natural gas (LNG), and for the foreseeable future, that is unlikely to change.
France is hardly the only country purchasing Russian energy, but Macron and many of the other Western leaders using hawkish rhetoric towards Russia are perhaps the biggest hypocrites. At least nine EU countries continue to buy Russian LNG, according to shipping data. France leads these countries in terms of overall quantities of purchases in 2024, while Belgium, Spain, and the Netherlands all follow behind.
French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire has defended Paris’ massive purchases, saying that ending France’s dependence on gas from Moscow must be “gradually implemented to avoid too brutal an impact on the market” and price increases.
I hate to say it but this has taken too long, and I do not see getting enough Americans back on the train to funding Ukraine at a level necessary to get Russia out of Ukraine. There were chances earlier if we gave them the right stuff, but I think the window has closed. Hope they prove me wrong.
Give them the tools to shut down Russian supply lines from 50-100 miles inside the Russian border, and you'll see the Russian lines crumble within a month or two.
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