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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

GQMstDkXMAAqEED

Like I said 1000 pages ago...

Air-drop "free vodka" from drones, that is filled with methyl.
Let them drink all they want.
 


"Ukrainian "kamikaze" drones attacked a metallurgical plant and other facilities used for military purposes in Russia's Belgorod, Voronezh, and Lipetsk oblasts overnight on June 17, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) source told the Kyiv Independent.

The confirmation came after Russian governors reported drone attacks on three regions, claiming there were no damage or casualties.

One of the targets was the Novolipetsk metallurgical plant and a local tractor plant in Lipetsk Oblast, according to the source." (More)

 
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Conscription squads send Ukrainian men into hiding​


Dark storm clouds threatened to upend Serhiy and Tania’s beach wedding. But as the couple walked down the long white staircase to greet their guests, the empty chairs signalled there was a bigger problem. In total, half of their guests were missing.

Their family and friends sent their apologies but explained that the risk of attending had been too great. What if they had been caught by one of the conscription squads, which now roam Ukraine’s streets?

With many of its soldiers dead, injured or exhausted, the Ukrainian government has stepped up its efforts to mobilise more men.

A new law, introduced in May, requires every man aged between 25 and 60 to log their details on an electronic database so they can be called up. Conscription officers are on the hunt for those avoiding the register, pushing more men who do not want to serve into hiding.

Overlooking the Black Sea in the southern city of Odesa, Tania quietly murmured that she understood why her friends and family did not want to fight.

Her father was killed on the front line in October, during the attritional battle for Avdiivka, and the 24-year-old is now terrified of her new husband being conscripted. “I don’t want this to happen to my family twice,” she said.

More than two years into the war, almost everyone knows someone who has been killed. Grim news has poured out from the front, of Ukraine being vastly outnumbered and outgunned.

Over the phone, the couple’s friend of 15 years, Maksym, relayed such tales. Among the dead are around a dozen of his friends and acquaintances. “There are more than a million police officers in Ukraine, why should I fight when they are not?" he said.

Maksym, who has a young daughter and wife who is seven months pregnant, said he was sorry to miss the wedding but was afraid of being “grabbed” by conscription officers who he likened to “bandits”.

The mobilisation squads have a fearsome reputation, especially in Odesa, for pulling people off buses and from train stations and ferrying them straight to enlistment centres.

For those avoiding the draft, public transport is now off limits. So too are restaurants, supermarkets, and weekend trips to the park to play football.

“I feel like I am in a prison,” Maksym said.

On a Tuesday morning, a dozen conscription officers descended on Odesa’s main train station, led by a seasoned veteran sailor, Anatoliy, and his younger, more muscular counterpart Oleksiy. They paced the forecourt, stopping men of serving age, to check they were registered on the database.

But the well-mannered pair had a tough time finding eligible men. Most were either too young or had received some sort of exemption. After a couple of hours Anatoliy conceded that it was highly possible men were hiding from them.

“Some people run away from us. This happens quite often,” he said. “Others react quite aggressively. I don’t think these people have been brought up well."

At the enlistment centre around the corner, an optimistic note taped to the door notified would-be-recruits that those who had come voluntarily could skip the queues. But there were no queues. A lone man sat waiting to be seen.

When I asked whether he was there out of choice, he told me he had been “kidnapped” that morning and brought against his will.

“The officers encircled me so I couldn’t run,” he stuttered in shock. “I’m devastated."

One of the officers at the centre, Vlad, conceded that there were barely any willing volunteers these days. Under the call sign Hora, Vlad fought in some of the fiercest battles along the eastern front line in the Donbas before being struck in the head, chest, and legs by artillery shrapnel.

He was unable to mask his contempt for those who are hiding. “How can I say this without swearing?" he asked out loud.

“I don’t consider them men. What are they waiting for? If we run out of men, the enemy will come to their homes, rape their women, and kill their children." Vlad has seen the awful evidence first-hand.

This latest conscription drive has opened up uncomfortable divisions in society, not only between those serving and those avoiding the draft, but also between female friends, some of whom have partners on the front line, and others who are hiding their boyfriends at home.

The topic of mobilisation creeps into almost every conversation, which then often turn heated. Last month someone threw an explosive into the garden of an enlistment officer’s home.

There is a striking distrust among the men choosing not to enlist. They do not trust the officers, after some were found to be taking bribes to help men escape the country. Nor do they trust they would be adequately trained.

On the outskirts of Odesa, Vova appeared sheepishly at the door of his apartment block, using his seven-year-old daughter as a shield. The IT engineer will not leave the house without her as he knows the officers cannot snatch him if they are together.

Last year, while on his way to work, he was ordered off a bus by the military at gun point, he said, and taken to an enlistment centre. He convinced the officers to let him go to fetch some documents, but vowed to himself he would never return.

“I’m not a military man, I’ve never held a weapon, I don’t think I can be useful on the front line,” he said.

He then reeled off the same list of reasons given by every draft dodger we spoke to – a family to support, some minor medical ailment, and a defiant declaration he was sending humanitarian aid to soldiers.

But underneath these excuses is always the same fear, that within weeks of registering, these men would end up as cannon fodder on the front line that, to their eyes, does not appear to be moving. This is despite recent attempts by the government to give recruits some say over which units and roles they are assigned to.

When speaking to these men, there is somewhat of a disconnect. They are holding out for a Ukrainian victory, just one that does not involve them.

“I am proud that many men made the brave decision to go to the front line," said Vova. “They are truly the best of our country.”

 
When you have to kiss NK and Vietnamese ass things can't be going great.

Putin to Visit North Korea, Vietnam as His War in Ukraine Stalls​


  • Russian leader to make his first North Korea trip since 2000
  • US, South Korea accuse Pyongyang of supplying arms to Russia
 
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Ukraine employs a flexible defense while waiting for new Western ammo to get to the front​


KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukrainian firepower has been improving since U.S. lawmakers approved a much-needed military aid package this spring, though not quickly enough to halt the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine.

Although the influx of Western munitions has shrunk Kyiv’s glaring artillery disadvantage, Moscow’s forces are still gaining ground along the snaking front line and will likely continue to do so through the summer, when the drier ground and longer days will only aid their push.

Ukraine is still on the defensive in the Donetsk region, enabling Moscow’s forces to inflict heavy losses during Ukrainian troop rotations and bringing them closer to crucial Ukrainian supply routes.

Kyiv has turned to a bend-but-don’t-break strategy to buy time until it can get more Western weapons and ammunition to the front. By ceding some territory, Ukraine has been able to fight from better defended positions, according to interviews with senior Ukrainian military leaders, soldiers and officers in the field, and analysts.

Russia’s shrinking munitions advantage​

New weapons and ammunition have been trickling to the front line since U.S. President Joe Biden signed off on the massive aid package in April. But it will take weeks, if not months, for Ukraine to fully replenish its depleted stocks.

“It takes time to load ships that must then cross the Atlantic,” Ivan Havryliuk, Ukraine’s first deputy minister of defense, told The Associated Press. “But we’re already seeing the (results). Russia’s artillery advantage was 7-to-1 at the start of the year, but is down to 5-to-1 now.”



Havryliuk said that to neutralize Russian airpower, Ukraine needs at least 130 F-16 fighter jets, some of which he expects to arrive later this year and early next.

“With time, when we set everything up, we will reach an advantage in our airspace,” he said.

The 110th Brigade, which has been fighting near the Russian-occupied village of Ocheretyne, began receiving a trickle of new shells less than a month ago, said Ivan Sekach, a brigade press officer.

The new arrivals have improved the unit’s stocks by 75% compared to last winter, when supplies were so low that the military had no choice but to give up ground to save soldiers’ lives, he said. But they aren’t nearly enough to hold off Russia’s advances and often aren’t the large calibers that are most needed, said Sekach.

“We need four times this amount to operate without counting each shell and prioritizing what to hit,” he said.

Oleksandr, a deputy battalion commander for 47th Brigade who spoke on the condition that only his first name be used in line with his unit’s protocols, said the brigade needs more anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.

“We can’t take all the ammunition our partners give us at once — we receive it in portions. And right now, we can’t accumulate what we need,” said Oleksandr, whose brigade has been fighting on the outskirts of Avdiivka, a city in the Donetsk region that Russian troops overwhelmed in February after a grueling campaign.

Ukraine’s “elastic band” strategy​

Ukraine has deployed an elastic defensive strategy to buy time until it’s better armed and provisioned. By making painful choices to pull back to better-defended positions, Ukrainian troops are able to fight more efficiently and save personnel, military officials said.

“Time is in the favor of Ukraine and thus the rationale of an elastic band: You can cede a little territory and gain a little time. And then by the end of this year, Ukraine will have advantages that it’s never had before,” said Dylan Lee Lehrke, an analyst with military intelligence think tank IHS Jane’s.

The strategy stands in contrast to the nine-month-long battle for the salt-mining city of Bakhmut, where Ukrainian troops suffered heavy casualties in an ultimately futile attempt to not cede ground.

Sekach said the improved flexibility has helped Ukrainian forces combat the Russian offensive.

“We had to spread out our positions and our logistics, too. We are doing it a lot smarter now,” he said before adding, “But don’t jinx it,” reflecting Ukraine’s anxiety about Russia’s current battlefield advantage.

Russia’s main offensive in the Donetsk region is focused on the areas around the captured Avdiivka and the town of Chasiv Yar, and it is making small but steady gains. Should Chasiv Yar fall, it would put nearby cities in jeopardy, compromise critical Ukrainian supply routes and bring Russia closer to its stated aim of seizing the entire Donetsk region.

Russia now has about 650,000 troops in Ukraine, which is nearly five times the 140,000 it had there two years ago. And Russian tactical changes have proven effective, sending waves of soldiers from different directions to force Ukrainian forces to expend more shells, attacking more frequently at night to exploit Ukraine’s weaknesses and inability to effectively counterattack, and even having soldiers don blue-striped Ukrainian helmets to confuse enemy drone operators.

Dense Russian signal jamming along the front line has reduced the effectiveness of Ukrainian strike drones, Ukrainian commanders said, blaming superior Russian capabilities but also poor communication between Ukrainian electronic warfare and drone units.

“Russians will definitely continue to have minor successes in the next while,” said Sekach.

The perils of resupplying the front​

Russia’s improved targeting of Ukrainian supply routes is having its intended effect, Ukrainian commanders said.

“They understand that we are supplied with new aid and they have increased their (drone) strikes and it influences our logistics,” said Ninja, a soldier with the 28th Brigade in Bakhmut who spoke using his call sign per his unit’s policy.

So frequent were the attacks on supplies feeding troops in Ninja’s unit’s area that drivers had to change schedules constantly. “You need to know the road perfectly, every crater, to allow a driver with night vision to drive quickly, come in, unload and get out,” he said.

Brigades have had to employ new tactics to supply the front. Regular trucks can be used to deliver ammunition in other combat zones, but in the Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka areas, armored vehicles, smartly plotted routes and supply-carrying drones are necessary.

“Now the delivery is significantly complicated, we are forced to use drones,” said Oleksandr. “If before armored vehicles would deliver ammunition two or three times per day, now they generally do so only once a day.”

Deadly rotations​

Improved Russian targeting is also exacting a heavy cost in Ukrainian blood, especially during the fragile hours between troop rotations.

Russia has become more adept at striking during these windows, when defensive lines are at their weakest, commanders said. One unit in the Chasiv Yar area said a quarter of its casualties happen while transporting troops to and from front-line positions.

Tor, the commander of the Kotyky unit in Chasiv Yar, said Russia’s ever-present drones have made it impossible to mask especially large troop movements.

“All day and night they are flying in the sky and observing us, it’s impossible to move without being seen,” he said.

Tor, who goes by his call sign in keeping with his unit’s protocols, said his soldiers have nowhere to hide and change positions because of constant Russian bombardment. Often, they have to run half a kilometer (a third of a mile) or more in the open air to find cover.

“When you’re in a basement, you’re safe. The minute you come up, you become an easy target,” he said.

 
If Trump wins, do you think the Europeans pick up the slack, or tell the Ukrainians to cut a deal?
I know a harsh reality may change some minds, but the Baltic States and Poland seem to be in this for the long haul and will do their best to prevent a victorious Russia from being the Russia they have to deal with.
Elections could possibly have an effect but countries like the UK and France, and Germany as far as arms deliveries, also appear to be fed up with Putin.
 
If Trump wins, do you think the Europeans pick up the slack, or tell the Ukrainians to cut a deal?
I don't even understand what the "deal" could be. The Kremlin's latest demand is a non-starter. Ukraine demands that Russia leave its territory. Russia demands that the territories are ceded (even those it doesn't have control of). What's the middle ground?
 
Wow!

"MOSCOW, June 17 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday sacked four deputy defence ministers and appointed a relative, Anna Tsivileva, to fill one of the vacancies.
Putin sacked deputy defence ministers Nikolai Pankov, Ruslan Tsalikov, Tatiana Shevtsova and Pavel Popov, according to Kremlin decrees. He appointed Tsivileva, who Russian media said is the daughter of Putin's cousin, as a deputy defence minister.
Leonid Gornin, a deputy finance minister, will be a first deputy defence minister under Defence Minister Andrei Belousov."
Pavel Fradkov, the son of former Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov, was appointed a deputy defence minister. Oleg Savelyev was also appointed deputy defence minister.
After Putin last month appointed Belousov as defence minister and moved Sergei Shoigu to the Russian Security Council, the move appears to be an attempt to install loyalists in the defence ministry."

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...e-ministers-appoints-his-relative-2024-06-17/

 
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