This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

I do too, but I also wonder how much stuff we have stockpiled that we could immediately give away. I assume we have piles of 155 mm shells, even though the war showed our manufacturing base had dwindled to an unacceptably low level. But, how many kick ass cruise missiles do we really have, especially if we have to keep China and North Korea honest? From the few articles. I have seen it's going to take 2-3 years unless we went to a war time footing to ramp up production of some of the high end weapons. You tell me, but I don't think the F-16 has a large capability for launching long range missiles. So, what are we giving them that can reach into Russian areas, and what platforms can they use? Certainly we need to let them have HIMARS and ATACMS, but how many do we need to keep? I have a belief that Biden is going to unload everything he can if Harris loses in November that is stockpiled in Europe, hopefully he doesn't wait until then to green light expanded usage.

You raise great points and I’ve thought about that as well.


I still think the primary mission for the f-16’s at least initially is going to be suppressing their air defenses with the AGM-88’s which will be SO much better in that mission than their MIG-29’s.
As far as stand-off weapon this article gives a great breakdown but I have no idea what we’re sending them.

Ukraine’s F-16s Could Come With These Weapons

A detailed breakdown of the munitions Ukraine is likely to get, and some it is less likely to get, with its F-16s.

www.twz.com

As far as our stockpiles I think we have to really be smart about the levels because if shit gets real in the Pacific well expend munitions at a extremely high rate.

 

[lucas80]

I haven't been following this thread for quite a while and I don't refer much to Twitter, so excuse my ignorance. What's the latest on the Abrams tanks? Are the Ukrainians still having trouble with them? Are they being used properly?

The problem with the Abrams tanks is we gave them 31 instead of 331 or more needed to flesh out a bunch of armored brigades. And, they aren't suited for a defensive war. I'd love it if we unloaded every Bradley we have in storage. Those have proved amazingly effective at torching Russian armor and infantry.

 

[seminole97]

I haven't been following this thread for quite a while and I don't refer much to Twitter, so excuse my ignorance. What's the latest on the Abrams tanks? Are the Ukrainians still having trouble with them? Are they being used properly?

Google AI sez:

As of April 26, 2024, Ukraine had lost five of the 31 M1A1 Abrams tanks that the US sent to them in January 2023. The tanks were intended to help Ukrainian forces break through Russian defenses, but US officials say they have been vulnerable to Russian drones and anti-tank missiles. Some say the tanks are also easy to detect on the battlefield. In response to the losses, Ukraine has pulled the tanks from the front lines and the US is providing additional military aid, including counter-drone capabilities.

The U.S. spending millions to refurb old tanks might not be the best way to spend millions of dollars to help Ukraine.

 

[lucas80]

US banks will now have to report Russian assets as a pathway to seizure and sale. Western nations have seized $300 billion in Russian assets. Ukraine will need about $500 billion to rebuild if the war ended today.
https://apnews.com/article/repo-act...ssian-assets-9ecda7e3e799cdbfb564844ae89a144b

 

[lucas80]

You raise great points and I’ve thought about that as well.


I still think the primary mission for the f-16’s at least initially is going to be suppressing their air defenses with the AGM-88’s which will be SO much better in that mission than their MIG-29’s.
As far as stand-off weapon this article gives a great breakdown but I have no idea what we’re sending them.

Ukraine’s F-16s Could Come With These Weapons

A detailed breakdown of the munitions Ukraine is likely to get, and some it is less likely to get, with its F-16s.

www.twz.com

As far as our stockpiles I think we have to really be smart about the levels because if shit gets real in the Pacific well expend munitions at a extremely high rate.

So, no Storm Shadow equivalent, which sucks. But, getting HARM missiles on a platform designed for them helps, and Harpoon missiles on F-16s ranging out over the Black Sea will eliminate the hope of the Russian fleet ever returning to battle. Hopefully the crafty, resourceful Ukrainian aeronautical engineers are working on their own glide bomb kits

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

So, no Storm Shadow equivalent, which sucks. But, getting HARM missiles on a platform designed for them helps, and Harpoon missiles on F-16s ranging out over the Black Sea will eliminate the hope of the Russian fleet ever returning to battle. Hopefully the crafty, resourceful Ukrainian aeronautical engineers are working on their own glide bomb kits

It’ll be interesting to see what they come up. We’re giving them JDAM’s so I suppose they could modify them with glide kits

 

[seminole97]

US banks will now have to report Russian assets as a pathway to seizure and sale. Western nations have seized $300 billion in Russian assets. Ukraine will need about $500 billion to rebuild if the war ended today.
https://apnews.com/article/repo-act...ssian-assets-9ecda7e3e799cdbfb564844ae89a144b

Frozen, not seized.

 

[MitchLL]

I'm hopeful that in his last few months as President that Biden assumes the DGAF approach and supplies Ukraine with as much heavy machinery and aircraft as possible.

Kind of a goodwill effort.

 

[lucas80]

Continuing on with the conversation with @binsfeldcyhawk2 here is a story about Raytheon and their production schedules.
If you are a tl;dr kind of person, the short version is it takes waaaaaay to f***ing long for them to accept an order and produce a unit to be shipped and deployed.
Another example of how the US got sloppy in in its procurement after the Cold War and the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.
https://www.newsweek.com/patriot-nasams-air-defense-systems-raytheon-1930173

 

[SA_Hawk]

 

[seminole97]

 

[MitchLL]

Biden is in the passenger seat now,.. his decision days are over.

Without any proof, I'm of the belief that nearly all decisions regarding Ukraine are "group think" with DOD/Pentagon officials having huge influence in WH actions.

And even if Harris has more input, still think it's "consensus".

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Continuing on with the conversation with @binsfeldcyhawk2 here is a story about Raytheon and their production schedules.
If you are a tl;dr kind of person, the short version is it takes waaaaaay to f***ing long for them to accept an order and produce a unit to be shipped and deployed.
Another example of how the US got sloppy in in its procurement after the Cold War and the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.
https://www.newsweek.com/patriot-nasams-air-defense-systems-raytheon-1930173

yep.

Pretty alarming how it’s taken us over two years to ramp up a simple thing like 155mm ammunition sufficiently.


We make great high tech stuff but can’t make it in quantity, quickly.

 

[h-hawk]

Google AI sez:

As of April 26, 2024, Ukraine had lost five of the 31 M1A1 Abrams tanks that the US sent to them in January 2023. The tanks were intended to help Ukrainian forces break through Russian defenses, but US officials say they have been vulnerable to Russian drones and anti-tank missiles. Some say the tanks are also easy to detect on the battlefield. In response to the losses, Ukraine has pulled the tanks from the front lines and the US is providing additional military aid, including counter-drone capabilities.

The U.S. spending millions to refurb old tanks might not be the best way to spend millions of dollars to help Ukraine.

It may make a big difference if we gave them hundreds to form armored divisions that could actually force their way through Russian defenses. Ukraine was criticized for reverting back to small forces attacks after losing their expensive tanks in still minor offenses last summer.

 

[h-hawk]

 

[h-hawk]

 

[h-hawk]

(Interest)

 

[h-hawk]

 

[h-hawk]

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Ukraine war briefing: Pentagon accounting error creates path for billions more to be sent to Kyiv​

Isn't this the second big "accounting error" we've had

Whatever gets the job done I guess.

Ukraine war briefing: Pentagon accounting error creates path for billions more to be sent to Kyiv

Ukraine’s foreign minister calls on Hong Kong to prevent Russia from using region to circumvent sanctions; drone debris lands in Romania. What we know on day 884

www.theguardian.com

 

[seminole97]

It may make a big difference if we gave them hundreds to form armored divisions that could actually force their way through Russian defenses. Ukraine was criticized for reverting back to small forces attacks after losing their expensive tanks in still minor offenses last summer.

How are they going to afford that?
All the expensive toys we give them require expensive maintenance, and they’re broke.

That’s why I think ‘bang for buck’ the powers that be realize the M-1s aren’t the best choice of what to give them.

Ukraine went back to small force attacks because mass gets spotted and draws drones.

 

[Tenacious E]

 

[noleclone2]

Also natty light is really working overtime on the pro Russia posts last few days.

 

[h-hawk]

 

[h-hawk]

How are they going to afford that?
All the expensive toys we give them require expensive maintenance, and they’re broke.

That’s why I think ‘bang for buck’ the powers that be realize the M-1s aren’t the best choice of what to give them.

Ukraine went back to small force attacks because mass gets spotted and draws drones.

As far as I know they are not paying for much of this. It should be like the thousands of tanks and vehicles we gave to the Soviet Union in WW2. With a large enough force, which we have not even began to supply to Ukraine, they can form real armored divisions to split the Russian forces. Armored battalions with 30 or so tanks just aren't enough. If we had the will we could have supplied hundreds of tanks and trained their crews and maintenance men by now. But we continue to fear Putin and let him do pretty much whatever he wants.

"A Ukrainian mechanized brigade usually has one tank battalion with around 30 tanks; a Ukrainian tank brigade might have three tank battalions.Dec 3, 2023"

 

[h-hawk]

Another one time General bites the dust.

 

[h-hawk]

Ukraine war briefing: Pentagon accounting error creates path for billions more to be sent to Kyiv​

Isn't this the second big "accounting error" we've had

Whatever gets the job done I guess.

Ukraine war briefing: Pentagon accounting error creates path for billions more to be sent to Kyiv

Ukraine’s foreign minister calls on Hong Kong to prevent Russia from using region to circumvent sanctions; drone debris lands in Romania. What we know on day 884

www.theguardian.com

I half expect a later audit to determine this was inaccurate and just an excuse to send Ukraine stuff while we still can-and I applaud that if that is what is happening!

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

I half expect a later audit to determine this was inaccurate and just an excuse to send Ukraine stuff while we still can-and I applaud that if that is what is happening!

If it was an actual auditing error...it raises questions.

Ukraine war spending has high visibility so catching an "error" is understandable. That spending would be meticulously reviewed. Especially with congressional pressure.

How about the other $800B in Pentagon spending? How many unidentified auditing "errors" are in that mountain of cash?

 

[h-hawk]

 

[h-hawk]

 

[h-hawk]

Another one time General bites the dust.

View embedded media

 

[h-hawk]

 

[h-hawk]

Good trend - fires in Russia.

 

[h-hawk]

 

[Tenacious E]

If it was an actual auditing error...it raises questions.

Ukraine war spending has high visibility so catching an "error" is understandable. That spending would be meticulously reviewed. Especially with congressional pressure.

How about the other $800B in Pentagon spending? How many unidentified auditing "errors" are in that mountain of cash?

I guess whether it was an "error" or "solution" is up for interpretation and should be done on an item-by-item basis. One could rationalize both replacement cost and depreciated value, depending on the situation. If the items were never actually going to be used by US troops because they were getting to the end of their useful life, depreciated value makes sense. If Ukraine got new and shiny stuff otherwise destined for US troops, replacement value makes sense.

 

[seminole97]

As far as I know they are not paying for much of this.

That’s my point. We’re paying for it, and provisioning armored brigades means a large, ongoing expense that a plane load of artillery shells doesn’t.

The initial M-1 allotment seems to have been more about political cover for Germany to provide tanks than providing any kind of ‘game changing’ kit.

 

[h-hawk]

 

[h-hawk]

That's a shame.

 

[h-hawk]

"71st Separate Fighter Brigade.The Russians chose a spot on a former farm, but our scouts counted them there too, and several FPV drones went hunting"



More details on this attack.

 

[h-hawk]