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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

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Long but interesting.



"Again the Karma of the burst Russian dams. This time in Karelia, on the White Sea-Baltic Canal.While Russia pours its budget into weapons, civilian structures collapse due to lack of maintenance."

 

Russia Punches Through Weakened Lines in Eastern Ukraine​

Military analysts say Russian forces are increasingly investigating Ukrainian lines to identify weakened positions before attacking and breaking through.
Russian forces have made rapid gains in the eastern Donetsk region over the past week or so, capturing a few villages and closing in on the city of Pokrovsk, one of the main Ukrainian defensive strongholds in the area.

Russian forces are now only a dozen miles from Pokrovsk after Moscow’s troops pushed along a railway line and advanced about three miles toward the city, according to open-source maps of the battlefield based on combat footage and satellite imagery. The Russian progress contrasts sharply with the slow but steady gains that Moscow had made so far this year in the Donetsk region, sometimes measured in only a few hundred yards a week.
Military analysts say the swift gains reflect Moscow’s improved ability to exploit cracks in Ukrainian defensive lines, which have been thinned by manpower shortages and strained by relentless Russian attacks along a more than 600-mile front.

In recent months, the experts say, Russian forces have increasingly focused on identifying weakened and poorly organized Ukrainian units before breaking through by throwing scores of troops and armored vehicles onto the battlefield.
Russians probe the lines to see if a battalion holds or retreats,” said Mykola Bielieskov, a military analyst at the government-run National Institute for Strategic Studies in Ukraine. Once they “find weakened battalions and brigades,” he added, “they press them no matter the losses.”

An example was Russia’s capture last week of the eastern village of Prohres. DeepState, an analytical group with close ties to Ukraine’s army, said the capture followed what it described as a chaotic Ukrainian retreat, as soldiers north of the village were encircled by the Russians and escaped only after the troops ignored their commander’s order not to break out of the encirclement, DeepState said.

The hasty retreat appears to have allowed Russian forces to quickly capture more land. Since the fall of Prohres, they have seized more than 10 square miles of territory, according to DeepState’s battlefield map.

Nazar Voloshyn, a spokesman for Ukraine’s eastern military command, declined to comment on the situation.

Lt. Oleksandr Shyrshyn, the deputy battalion commander for Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade, which was rushed to help Ukrainian troops in the area, told Hromadske, a Ukrainian news outlet, that the disorderly withdrawal led to unnecessary casualties. He said it would have been possible to better organize the retreat and prepare more solid defensive lines further back to stop the Russian advance.
Yuri Butusov, a Ukrainian military journalist, said Russia “attacks first and foremost those brigades that have the weakest command and organization.”

Ukraine has faced similar battlefield challenges in recent months, with its troops either trapped in chaotic retreats or bungling rotations that allow Russia to quickly seize land.

In Avdiivka, an eastern city that Russia captured in February, Ukrainian soldiers said a failure to execute an orderly withdrawal cost lives and led to the capture of many soldiers. About two months later, the fall of Ocheretyne, a village northwest of Avdiivka, was partly blamed on a failure to properly rotate Ukrainian troops, leaving the sector undefended.

Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst, said “rotations are usually the most dangerous moment” for an army because they leave positions only partially manned as soldiers pull back.
Mr. Gady said ever-present surveillance drones hovering over the battlefield have made these rotations extremely difficult to carry out, particularly for Ukraine, whose defensive lines are already thin because of manpower shortages. Russia often tries to attack and advance just as Ukraine conducts rotations, Mr. Gady said.

There’s more here


So, the Russians captured 10 square miles at the cost of 5000 casualties give or take?
 

Only six Ukrainian pilots trained to fly new F-16 fighter jets​

Volodymyr Zelensky says weapons once championed as game-changers are now ‘too little, too late’ as Russia’s air defences improve

behind a pay wall for the rest of the article...in case someone can post it.

 

Only six Ukrainian pilots trained to fly new F-16 fighter jets​

Volodymyr Zelensky says weapons once championed as game-changers are now ‘too little, too late’ as Russia’s air defences improve

behind a pay wall for the rest of the article...in case someone can post it.

Non paywalled:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/only-six-ukrainian-pilots-trained-170948625.html

Kind of hard to believe given the hype. There is the caveat that it specified European NATO members. Presumably some are also being trained in the U.S.

Only six Ukrainian pilots have reportedly been trained by European Nato members

I do recall stories about the problems trying to add Ukrainian pilots to the schedule when allied nations already have training slots taken up. Seems like over the last year they might have take steps to increase slots.
 
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Not a great strategy with a county 266,000 square miles.

Will take 133 million men to capture the rest…
The goal has been the establishment of a neutral buffer state, not Russian conquest of Ukraine.

Let’s see if that is a consequence of the negotiated settlement to come.
 
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"RAROG" drone battalion.Counter battery battles using FPV drones. Destroyed and damaged howitzer 2A65 (MSTA- B) , D-20, D-30 and M-46 gun + one illegal occupant"

 
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How about this?

The intermediate goal that has been reset as a result of this 2.5 year failed special military operation is the establishment of a neutral buffer state until such time as Russia can replenish and rebuild its military so as to complete the conquest of Ukraine.
Perfect!! Much more accurate than Natty Light’s hot take.
 
How about this?

The intermediate goal that has been reset as a result of this 2.5 year failed special military operation is the establishment of a neutral buffer state until such time as Russia can replenish and rebuild its military so as to complete the conquest of Ukraine.

Have you read any of the comments from participants in the April 2022 peace talks?

NYT

Ukraine made a significant concession: it was ready to become a “permanently neutral state” that would never join NATO or allow foreign forces to be based on its soil. The offer seemed to address Mr. Putin’s core grievance — that the West, in the Kremlin’s narrative, was trying to use Ukraine to destroy Russia.
 
Perfect!! Much more accurate than Natty Light’s hot take.
At the end of WW2, after the Soviets concluded peace agreements with Finland and Austria that codified their neutrality, why didn’t they just regroup and invade them later?
 
At the end of WW2, after the Soviets concluded peace agreements with Finland and Austria that codified their neutrality, why didn’t they just regroup and invade them later?
Because as it was they had too much on their dance card. They spent the next 50 years unsuccessfully trying to keep Poland, Hungary, the Baltics, Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia under their heel. You think they had the wherewithal to go after two countries in the center of the foundational NATO alliance?

That question is posed with the bravado of a delusional Russian.
 
Have you read any of the comments from participants in the April 2022 peace talks?

NYT

Ukraine made a significant concession: it was ready to become a “permanently neutral state” that would never join NATO or allow foreign forces to be based on its soil. The offer seemed to address Mr. Putin’s core grievance — that the West, in the Kremlin’s narrative, was trying to use Ukraine to destroy Russia.
And yet Putin never agreed to give the disputed territory back. You can reimagine the stakes all you want but Russia never agreed to withdraw from where they were/are.
 
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Because as it was they had too much on their dance card. They spent the next 50 years unsuccessfully trying to keep Poland, Hungary, the Baltics, Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia under their heel.

They spent the next 45 years successfully keeping the Warsaw Pact countries under their heel, but Yugoslavia rejected the Warsaw Pact and was part of the non-Aligned movement.

You think they had the wherewithal to go after two countries in the center of the foundational NATO alliance?
That question is posed with the bravado of a delusional Russian.

You think Finland and Austria are ‘two countries in the center of the foundational NATO alliance’?

The 12 founding members of the Alliance were: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The Soviets had already completely occupied Austria at the end of the war, and there was nothing the West could have done to stop them pressing Finland harder if they had chosen to do so. The ‘wherewithal’ argument doesn’t make any sense in light of historical facts.
 
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They spent the next 45 years successfully keeping the Warsaw Pact countries under their heel, but Yugoslavia rejected the Warsaw Pact and was part of the non-Aligned movement.



You think Finland and Austria are ‘two countries in the center of the foundational NATO alliance’?

The 12 founding members of the Alliance were: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The Soviets had already completely occupied Austria at the end of the war, and there was nothing the West could have done to stop them pressing Finland harder if they had chosen to do so. The ‘wherewithal’ argument doesn’t make any sense in light of historical facts.
Not sure where to start with you. Austria was completely occupied by the Soviets? Recheck your historical facts. Also Tito was most definitely a heavy Soviet lean. Stalin literally put him in power. That the Soviets couldn’t keep their stuff together is why the Austria Finland delusion is so funny.
 
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Not sure where to start with you. Austria was completely occupied by the Soviets? Recheck your historical facts. Also Tito was most definitely a heavy Soviet lean. Stalin literally put him in power. That the Soviets couldn’t keep their stuff together is why the Austria Finland delusion is so funny.
You are debating a pro Russian stooge who told everyone that Russia was just doing training exercises with Belarus and the warmongering was all US to distract from inflation and then switched to it being NATOs fault and Ukraine would not stand a chance.
 
The Defense Department announced a $1.7 billion military aid package for Ukraine that will immediately transfer some U.S. weapons to the battlefield.
A Presidential Drawdown Authority action valued at up to $200 million includes air defense interceptors, munitions for rocket systems and artillery as well as anti-tank weapons, according to DOD.
Meanwhile, $1.5 billion is being put on contract via the Ukraine Security Initiative to provide long-term military assistance to include:
  • Munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS)
  • Short- and medium-range air defense munitions;
  • RIM-7 missiles for air defense;
  • Electronic Warfare equipment;
  • Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
  • 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
  • 120mm mortar rounds;
  • Precision aerial munitions;
  • Tube-Launched, Optically Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
  • Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
  • Small arms;
  • Explosives material and demolitions equipment and munitions;
  • Secure communications systems;
  • Commercial satellite imagery services; and
  • Spare parts, maintenance and sustainment support and other ancillary equipment.
“This is the Biden Administration's twentieth USAI package and sixty-second tranche of equipment to be provided from DOD inventories for Ukraine and since August 2021,” DOD said.

 
The Defense Department announced a $1.7 billion military aid package for Ukraine that will immediately transfer some U.S. weapons to the battlefield.
A Presidential Drawdown Authority action valued at up to $200 million includes air defense interceptors, munitions for rocket systems and artillery as well as anti-tank weapons, according to DOD.
Meanwhile, $1.5 billion is being put on contract via the Ukraine Security Initiative to provide long-term military assistance to include:
  • Munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS)
  • Short- and medium-range air defense munitions;
  • RIM-7 missiles for air defense;
  • Electronic Warfare equipment;
  • Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
  • 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
  • 120mm mortar rounds;
  • Precision aerial munitions;
  • Tube-Launched, Optically Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
  • Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
  • Small arms;
  • Explosives material and demolitions equipment and munitions;
  • Secure communications systems;
  • Commercial satellite imagery services; and
  • Spare parts, maintenance and sustainment support and other ancillary equipment.
“This is the Biden Administration's twentieth USAI package and sixty-second tranche of equipment to be provided from DOD inventories for Ukraine and since August 2021,” DOD said.

Dark Brandon is still rollin’!
 
Is that in the orc controlled area(s)?
It looks like it is Russia's part of a canal that is next to Finland. The comments are pretty good too :)
The White Sea–Baltic Canal, often abbreviated to White Sea Canal is a man-made ship canal in Russia opened on 2 August 1933. It connects the White Sea, in the Arctic Ocean, with Lake Onega, which is further connected to the Baltic Sea. Until 1961, it was called by its original name: the Stalin White Sea–Baltic Canal. Wikipedia

PS- a video mentions that this was a temporary dam made of earth that did not last until the permanent dam was finally built.
 
It looks like it is Russia's part of a canal that is next to Finland. The comments are pretty good too :)
The White Sea–Baltic Canal, often abbreviated to White Sea Canal is a man-made ship canal in Russia opened on 2 August 1933. It connects the White Sea, in the Arctic Ocean, with Lake Onega, which is further connected to the Baltic Sea. Until 1961, it was called by its original name: the Stalin White Sea–Baltic Canal. Wikipedia
Karelian has a nice ring to it. Flows off the tongue in an ancient and romantic manner. Hopefully the downstream damage impacted orcs rather than Finns or the native Karelian peoples.
 
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