This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...
- Thread starter Nole Lou
- Start date
This kind of stuff was pointed out 70,000 posts ago; Russia does not have and cannot generate Western technical proficiency. They rely entirely on Western tech and bypassing sanctions for most of their military functionality.
Full text, for those w/o X accounts:
The Syrian Energy Corridor
For decades countries in the Middle East have been pursuing the objective to establish a natural gas pipeline to Europe, one of the most lucrative markets in the world. Until 2022, Russia was the dominating seller of natural gas and established a series of pipelines, such as Nordstream.
The Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline connecting Azerbaijan to Europe while going through Turkey was in this region the only competitor and gained some market share ever since Russia launched the full scale war in Ukraine. But with 16 billion cubic meter per year, it remains rather small.
For comparison some more pipelines (in cubic meters per year / cbm)
Nordstream 1: 55 billion cbm
Nordstream 2: 55 billion cbm
Yamal: 33 billion cbm
Bratstvo: 32 billion cbm
With an annual demand of 350-450 billion cbm, Europe relies on far bigger supplies.
One of the most interested one in building a natural gas pipeline to Europe in this region has been Qatar. This small Emirate sits on 24 trillion cubic meters in proven reserves, enough to supply Europe for almost century and probably long enough until full decarbonization.
Currently, all Qatari natural gas exports are done via LNG, which as well known is energy intense and therefore not as efficient and lucrative as pipeline gas. LNG is good when it comes to competition, but when it comes to size and constant supply, pipeline gas is the king.
As mentioned, Qatar has been pursuing this project for a long time and followed two possible scenarios:
Variant 1: Qatar -> Saudi Arabia -> Kuwait -> Iraq -> Turkey
Variant 2: Qatar -> Saudi Arabia -> Syria -> Turkey
Both proposals had obstacles:
Variant 1 leads through Iraq which at the time and even today is too unstable for a persistent supply. It also leads through Kurdish-Iraq which is an ongoing issue for Turkey
Variant 2 seems to be the more viable one, but it had one obstacle: Syria
Syria under Assad had been a staunch ally of Russia and naturally had no inclination to oppose its handlers in Moscow, even though it would have been lucrative to Syria and therefore Assad. But Moscow's influence was too strong and in the late 2000s the project was effectively shot down.
After this weekend this has changed. Assad is gone and Syria is under control by the rebels, who have good relations to the Qatar. It does not take much guessing to assume whether Qatar will renew its efforts. With good relations to Turkey and Syria only Saudi Arabia needs to be convinced.
Though the relations between Qatar and Saudi Arabia has been under heavy strain in the last years, especially when it comes to Iran, the last years have seen some de-escalation. Diplomatic ties have been re-established in 2021 and the borders are open ever since without much disturbance.
There is also the Arab Gas Pipeline from Egypt going all the way to Syria, but hasn't been connected to Turkey, yet. The intention to do so was interrupted by the starting Syrian war in 2011. Now, this operation can be resumed.
Syria is slowly but surely becoming an important energy hub.
This development was actively opposed by Moscow, for obvious reasons. Qatar's vast reserves in natural gas threatened Russian almost monopoly and undermined its ambitions to use the energy as a weapon against inconvenient neighbors.
With both Nordstream pipelines destroyed and Assad ousted the worst case scenario arrived for Moscow. Even when Russia might somehow convince the new leadership in Damascus to keep the Russian bases, a prospect with low chances of success, Syria's rise to become an energy hub is certain.
With Gazprom decaying and being virtually bankrupt as well as the prospect of another huge competitor emerging on the European market, Russia is reeling into the next economic catastrophe. A wise Russian leadership would instantly stop all military activities and open up negotiations.
There are increasing voices that Putin will do this, because of the military situation, which in itself warrants this prognosis. The Russian losses remain to be staggeringly high and the Soviet army depots are depleting fast. But with the developments in Syria, another weight comes in.
Putin's decision to allow Assad refuge is a strategically stupid decision. Assad lost not only value, but has become a liability for Russia. Damascus will demand extradition. It does not make sense from a geopolitical point of view, but illogical decisions are a constant under Putin.
The only reason Assad has been allowed to be in Moscow is because of Putin, who remembers only too well when it was him being holed up in his KGB office in Dresden, abandoned and alone by Moscow. It is a personal decision which is based by a deluded person who harms Russia, once again.
Russia is reaping all the strategic failures which Putin has created. It is misstep after misstep, with no light at the end of the tunnel. In the contrary, neither politically not economically Russia can expect any turnaround of this death spiral and Putin is the helmsman.
It shows that Russia is running out of options and time. Ukraine is feeling a lot of pain, but the strategic defenses are holding. Even when we project that Russia might take Pokrovsk or even entire Donbas, it does not change the situation on the ground, not even a bit.
We have seen in Syria what real military breakthroughs look like. Syrian rebels took the same amount of territory in one day what Russia couldn't take within an entire year. Russia is creeping on the ground and burning men and material on an astronomical scale.
With Syria fully lost and Africa on the verge being lost or at least diminished, Russia is in the ropes. The wisest decision for the West would be to unleash whatever had been held back. It is an even more ideal time to do so. It is time to finish the job as we did 1989-1991.
The Russian Khmeimim airbase in Latakia, Syria, is still completely packed with planes, missiles, fuel trucks etc. You can be sure that the new Syrian army has pointed many barrels, missiles and drones at this location. Obviously, there are negotiations ongoing in the background. The only question is how they will end. There are only three possible outcomes:
1.) The talks fall apart and rebels start shelling the base, obliterating Russian hardware worth billions of dollars.
2.) The talks end by allowing Russians to leave the base in peace, but certainly something has to be given in exchange for. This is going to be very expensive. At least the value of the equipment currently stored at the base.
3.) Russians are allowed to stay under certain conditions, but have to pay far more than in option 2.
No matter how it will end, Russia has been reduced from the one faction calling the shots in Syria, down to being the beggar. None of this outcomes is good for Russia. In fact, what we see here is probably the biggest hostage situation in the world
Anyone with experience of the Ukrainian war who saw the drone videos of Syrian rebels, especially of HTS, understood that they got help from Ukraine. Both, tactics and technology clearly resembled Ukrainian war tactics.
The HTS takeover of Aleppo was in many ways the replication of Ukraine‘s offensive into Kursk.The Kuweires air base east of Aleppo, which in September was still manned by Russians, was attacked Ukrainian intelligence units. Same goes with Africa where Ukrainians are probably supporting Touregs against Wagner units.
Ukraine is waging a global war against Russia with outstanding success and it is a painful thorn in Russia‘s side
