Probably not unless the have something near parity in the air
This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...
- Thread starter Nole Lou
- Start date
This war will likely be a meatgrinder through the remainder of the summer, but most of the military experts believe that if Ukraine can continue to hold the majority of their territory and make Russia continue to work extremely hard for small incremental gains, then Ukraine will in the fall turn the tide and become the aggressor and may eventually gain back all prior Russian held territories. That makes a lot of sense, Russian enthusiasm will cool as quickly as the Ukrainian weather in winter. A good friend of mine has a son serving over in Poland since February and suffice it to say, they are extremely busy there and no wavering of commitment in sight.
The version with Biden walking Zelensky toward NATO ends with 10s (hopefully it doesn’t reach hundreds) of thousands dead.
Did the neocons think Putin wouldn’t do it, or did they expect he would and what we have now is the hoped for outcome?
I read this exact sentiment from the Canadian fighter and American (Vasquez) Twitter feeds early May or late April even. They knew it was going to get bad and they had to outlast until August.
I think it’s more likely that Russia grinds to a halt in the next month or so. The Ukrainians make some incremental gains in the fall. Everything is stagnant through the Winter.
Next spring? Ukraine will have had 2-3 months to reconstitute/refit units that will severely need it after 6-7 months of combat and heavy losses. Western weapons keep coming in…Ukrainians are able to build up stockpiles of munitions needed for a major offensive.
Russians do the same but aren’t reconstituting with as high a quality munitions, equipment and troops. But they still have all that artillery.
Ukrainians probably don’t have the numbers to attack on a broad front…so maybe they concentrate on the south? In the east the Russians are going to be massed along rivers and other defensible lines….guess it just depends on what Ukraine considers the priority front.
I think this is fairly probable. Good take.
Well, it's a good spell for them, but they are making very incremental gains. I am more and more convinced that Russia is going to stop soon, declare victory over the Nazis, and then cleanse all of the seized territories. All the while hoping they can make the West wobbly before Ukraine has enough firepower to dislodge them. I think Russia is going to have a very hard time holding onto this land, and they are clearly doing everything they can to avoid mobilizing reserves. They are pulling up some men, but have avoided a general mobilization which could spark unrest.Russian forces are arguably having their best spell since the invasion of Ukraine began four months ago.
They have eliminated most Ukrainian defenses in the Luhansk region, consolidated control of a belt of territory in the south, improved their logistics and command structure and blunted the effectiveness of Ukrainian attack drones.
Within the last week, the Russians have been rewarded for their intense -- some would say merciless -- bombardments of the remaining parts of the Luhansk region held by Ukrainian forces, which have finally given up Severodonetsk and lost territory south of Lysychansk.
The head of the self-declared Luhansk People's Republic, Leonid Pasechnik, predicted last Friday that Russian forces would completely encircle Lysychansk within two or three days. So far they haven't, but the city is in imminent peril.
Tide turns in the Ukraine war as Russia makes progress in the east | CNN
Russian forces are arguably having their best spell since the invasion of Ukraine began four months ago.www.cnn.com
Agree….unfortunately I think it’s probably going to be next spring before Ukraine can launch a major offensive. Both sides are gonna need a pause in a few months to reconstitute. They’ve taken a lot of casualties….
US lost 220 dead per day in WW2. Ukraine is taking heavier losses per capita with a much much smaller military….Russia worse.
That's cool, but what is Ukraine going to do with the patrol boats? I can see some river operations, but they cannot range too far out into the Black Sea given Russian air superiority, and their advantage in bigger ships. They could maybe help along the coast line of the Black Sea. Do they have de-mining capabilities?
Imagine what another 3-6-9 months of Western military equipment target practice will do. I hope the Ukrainians get the green light to eventually start targeting supply chain networks within Russia. I imagine some retribution to Russia’s military infrastructure and ability to wage senseless war is in order…. otherwise these scumsucking criminal Russo-Nazis will never be held to account for their various heinous crimes against humanity.
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Give peace a chance, kill Russians.
Apparently official - they were being shelled from the coast so it was not a good situation for them. A victory for Ukraine!
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"Last week, The Washington Post published an excellent analysis titled “Why Russia’s military is bogged down by logistics in Ukraine” by Bonnie Berkowitz and Artur Galocha. It came out surprisingly early in the Ukraine war – just one month after the invasion began – yet detailed the numerous failings of Russian logistics and equipment deployment that have prohibited Russia in overtaking Ukraine. It’s a case study that will eventually be required reading for anyone going through a command-and-control school.
I do not expect the next phase of the conflict to go much better for Russia. Their first problem is that the Tier 1 units used in the first phase of the conflict have been mostly depleted and will realistically need at least a month to re-arm and refit. Unfortunately for Russia, they have almost no Tier 1 units in reserve."
So, does a Russian general get executed for this amazing victory? Maybe this can be a template for the entire Russian invasion. Declare a full victory, and then withdraw.
Russia is claiming this is a goodwill act to show that grain can be shipped from Ukraine ports
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We're going to make you an offer you can't refuse....but people are now standing up to them.
Russian saber rattling statements these days read a lot like North Korean ones.
"Ukraine is in dire need of all these types of vessels, especially to help protect its inland waterways.
Its current riverine force, called the Ukraine Navy Dnipro River Squadron, is made up largely of converted fishing and pleasure vessels, Andrii Ryzhenko, a retired Ukraine Navy captain and former member of that nation’s general staff, tells The War Zone."
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...-patrol-boats-ukraine-is-getting-from-the-u-s
The Littoral combat ships that haven't panned out for us would be perfect for them.
Basically fits the need Ukraine has...
Turn what was basically a procurement boondoggle into a plus....might be too expensive for the Ukrainians to maintain though.
Capabilities basically fit the Ukrainian need though...
The congressional fight to scrap littoral combat ships isn’t over
Congress appears poised to save five littoral combat ships from an early retirement, but the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee is saying that the fight to ditch the ships is not yet over.
www.defensenews.com
Littoral Combat Ship Class - LCS
The Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) is a fast, agile, mission-focused platform designed to operate in near-shore environments, winning against 21st-century coastal threats. The LCS is capable of supporting
www.navy.mil
Navy Could Transfer Decommissioned Littoral Combat Ships to Allies, Says CNO - USNI News
The Navy could transfer the Freedom-class Littoral Combat Ships it plans to decommission to other countries, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday told lawmakers today. Testifying before the Senate Appropriations Committee defense subcommittee, Gilday suggested the panel assess the...
news.usni.org
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I think the big news here is yet again a sign of Russian incompetence. Each Pantsir system they lost was 15 million and they lost a bunch of other radar and communications. In addition to lives. And they did this by putting them all on a small island within range of the new artillery weapons from NATO Ukraine was doing. Even a 10 year old playing Risk has more sense than that.
Funny thing is in all their other retreats, like this one and from Kyiv, they always say it is a goodwill gesture. The Russians are borderline comical at this point but it also is a sad testament to how brainwashed their citizens are that they are not burning Putin in effigy at this point and still accepting the propaganda.
"One of those responsible for the eviction of the Serpent Island Army is the 155 mm 2S22 Bohdana Artillery system, little or nothing seen in videos. Maximum range 40 KM ammunition HE / AP Rocket assisted 50 KM"
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NATO needs to figure a way to take advantage of this in some form or another.
Looks like Russian APC of some sort brewing up.
U should probably mail that one to Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld.
Use a 1980s DeLorean with a Flux Capacitor for delivery.
I think we should sink every Russian ship and sub on/in the Black Sea.
And just deny it.
500m = nearly 1/3 of a mile
Impacts geolocated by this video. Both Kh-22 missiles should hit the factory, but one hit the mall directly, the second (1:23) hit the end building of the factory, so both missiles with 500m of CEP failed to seriously damage the factory, but hit civilian object, caused the death at least 20 citizens and 59 were injured (25 of them hostitalized). But resque works still ongoing. Total about 40 calls about missed people was registered by local police.
Amstor after Kh-22 dirct hit.
Places of impacts
Amstor pointed with red Google mark and the second hit with red ellipse. About 500 m between hits. The lake is above.
The factory territory
Second missile hit nearby the factory buildings, but shockwave caused destructions
My takeaway from this is that somewhere in social media there must a hot east European gal with the last name Slutsky.
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