This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

h-hawk

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FWIW-I still find it hard to believe that Russia would let people roam around the ruins recording the destruction.

 
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h-hawk

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What's the conventional wisdom on where these people are heading? Russia? Or just disperse into the occupied countryside?
Yeah, these were said to be Russian tourists and family members of the military stationed there. I had forgotten Russia had controlled Crimea long enough to make it a tourist destination again. No wonder they showed no excitement when the base was being plastered:)
 
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lucas80

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lucas80

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Two random thoughts.
1. I don’t want to see civilians killed. Even POS Russian civilians doing some war tourism.
2. Hopefully some commercial satellite company gets us better pictures of what was destroyed at that air base. This could be a back breaker for Russia in its ability to lob missiles into southern Ukraine.
 

Tenacious E

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I’ve posted this several times. We seem to be at a point where Russia cannot hold what they have taken. The question is does Ukraine have enough boots on the ground to retake what Russia is holding?
We will see. If not, hopefully there will be continued HIMARS blowing up ammo and supplies depots, and they die a death by a thousand cuts with guerrilla warfare, until they simply pull out.
 

Tenacious E

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(At least one official in Ukraine has claimed the rockets were of their own manufacture. )

After some reading it looks to me that the MGM—140s are older but effective surface to surface guided missiles we are phasing out and replacing. Could be that Ukraine is getting a lot of those weapons we don’t need or won’t be needing anymore, and putting them to good use.
 

noleclone2

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Two random thoughts.
1. I don’t want to see civilians killed. Even POS Russian civilians doing some war tourism.
2. Hopefully some commercial satellite company gets us better pictures of what was destroyed at that air base. This could be a back breaker for Russia in its ability to lob missiles into southern Ukraine.
Ukraine stated they got 9 planes. Already added to daily total!
 
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h-hawk

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I can be slow but just realized one reason Russia is pushing the accident excuse for the airbase, is that all those Russian civilians rushing to return will be telling friends and relatives about the devastating attack. Their propaganda has been telling them that Russia is totally in control. It would be shocking to see what happened anyway but this could add another layer to that to realize the situation is very much different than they believed.
 

h-hawk

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FZxlcClWYAAWZm1
 

h-hawk

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Maybe someone is keeping track but IIRC this is at least the 5th country to send trainers.
I wonder if this will increase the 10,000 troops trained every 3 weeks or if this is to give more individual attention, or both.

 

h-hawk

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Hope this is misdirection because that seems way too long. But then, they are the professionals:)

 
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HawkRCID

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we need to keep sending missiles….seems to be making all the difference, much like the javelins did early on….besides being the “right” thing to do…from a geo political perspective, it will take Russia years if not decades to recover its losses and re-arm completely…

And this whole conflict shows what a complete annihilation a conventional war between Russia and NATO would be…Frankly seeing western weapons so effectively strike down Russia is pretty amazing.
 

Tenacious E

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we need to keep sending missiles….seems to be making all the difference, much like the javelins did early on….besides being the “right” thing to do…from a geo political perspective, it will take Russia years if not decades to recover its losses and re-arm completely…

And this whole conflict shows what a complete annihilation a conventional war between Russia and NATO would be…Frankly seeing western weapons so effectively strike down Russia is pretty amazing.
While I have no doubt our motivations include doing the right thing, they also include protecting our national interests. A subset of that would be “live testing” equipment to better develop future weapons. So this capability gap should only grow from here….
 

h-hawk

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Russia MELTDOWN: Millions now out of work as Putin desperately scrambles to cover up chaos​

VLADIMIR PUTIN is frantically trying to conceal the true impact of sanctions on the Russian economy from his own people, with almost four million having lost their jobs since the start of his war on Ukraine, damning new research has revealed.​


https://www.express.co.uk/news/worl...r-putin-economic-financial-crash-unemployment
 

win4jj

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Russians must be starting to shit their pants. Their initial attacks failed, they regrouped and made progress in the east and south, and now appear stymied. Along the way, they lost 40k-80k soldiers killed or otherwise taken off the battle field, and galvanized western opposition. Now the uber weapons Ukraine has patiently trained for and waited for are on the front lines and f$cking shit up. I think this is the beginning of the end for Russia in Ukraine. Not a jinx.
As the kids like to say these days when something good happens……”Let’s Go!!!”
 

h-hawk

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While we can't say with any certainty that Ukraine may have now deployed even a limited number of Grim-2/Hrim-2 missiles it has for actual operational use, or used these weapons against Saki Airbase, there is certainly a number of different relevant precedents in the current conflict. Most notable, of course, is the sudden appearance of Ukrainian units armed with domestically-developed Neptune shore-based anti-ship cruise missiles to sink the Russian Navy's cruiser Moskva, the flagship of its Black Sea Fleet, in April. Prior to that incident, it was not commonly understood that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had any real operational capability with Neptune, and if it did, it was extremely limited.

There is also the potential that Ukraine has received assistance from one or more of its international partners, especially the United States, since the conflict began to help field a more robust, if still small operational force armed with Grim-2/Hrim-2s or similar missiles. There is already substantial evidence that the U.S. military quietly helped integrate the AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARM), primarily designed to home in on and destroy enemy air defense radars, onto Ukrainian aircraft, as you can read more about here. American authorities at least facilitated some kind of similar integration of 70mm laser-guided Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System II (APKWS II) rockets onto ground and/or aerial platforms. Other countries, such as the United Kingdom, have helped the Ukrainian Armed Forces field additional non-ballistic ground-based surface-to-surface missile systems, as well.
That a single Grim-2/Hrim-2 TEL that can fire two missiles could also fit with pictures and video that have emerged so far that appear to show two near-simultaneous major explosions at distinctly separate parts of the base. If this was indeed a missile strike, using domestically-developed weapons would only add to its propaganda value, having already demonstrated an ability to penetrate past Russia's substantial air and missile defenses to hit a key target in occupied Crimea.

The U.S. government has not been willing to supply such a capability in the form of land-attack cruise missiles or ATACMS ballistic missiles due to the risk of escalating and broadening the conflict. But, helping Ukraine build its own weapons would be a different story, and Ukraine had just such a weapon relatively deeply in development, as well as others.
So, whether the attack today on Russia's airbase in occupied Crimea had anything to do with a secretive advanced long-range weapon or not, it makes a lot of sense for Ukraine to be pursuing reanimating defunct weapons programs of this nature and fielding some sort of capability as fast as possible. Considering the country is in a fight for its very survival, anything less would illogical.
 

noleclone2

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While we can't say with any certainty that Ukraine may have now deployed even a limited number of Grim-2/Hrim-2 missiles it has for actual operational use, or used these weapons against Saki Airbase, there is certainly a number of different relevant precedents in the current conflict. Most notable, of course, is the sudden appearance of Ukrainian units armed with domestically-developed Neptune shore-based anti-ship cruise missiles to sink the Russian Navy's cruiser Moskva, the flagship of its Black Sea Fleet, in April. Prior to that incident, it was not commonly understood that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had any real operational capability with Neptune, and if it did, it was extremely limited.

There is also the potential that Ukraine has received assistance from one or more of its international partners, especially the United States, since the conflict began to help field a more robust, if still small operational force armed with Grim-2/Hrim-2s or similar missiles. There is already substantial evidence that the U.S. military quietly helped integrate the AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARM), primarily designed to home in on and destroy enemy air defense radars, onto Ukrainian aircraft, as you can read more about here. American authorities at least facilitated some kind of similar integration of 70mm laser-guided Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System II (APKWS II) rockets onto ground and/or aerial platforms. Other countries, such as the United Kingdom, have helped the Ukrainian Armed Forces field additional non-ballistic ground-based surface-to-surface missile systems, as well.
That a single Grim-2/Hrim-2 TEL that can fire two missiles could also fit with pictures and video that have emerged so far that appear to show two near-simultaneous major explosions at distinctly separate parts of the base. If this was indeed a missile strike, using domestically-developed weapons would only add to its propaganda value, having already demonstrated an ability to penetrate past Russia's substantial air and missile defenses to hit a key target in occupied Crimea.

The U.S. government has not been willing to supply such a capability in the form of land-attack cruise missiles or ATACMS ballistic missiles due to the risk of escalating and broadening the conflict. But, helping Ukraine build its own weapons would be a different story, and Ukraine had just such a weapon relatively deeply in development, as well as others.
So, whether the attack today on Russia's airbase in occupied Crimea had anything to do with a secretive advanced long-range weapon or not, it makes a lot of sense for Ukraine to be pursuing reanimating defunct weapons programs of this nature and fielding some sort of capability as fast as possible. Considering the country is in a fight for its very survival, anything less would illogical.
Can you imagine how bad US/NATO would have ****ed up Russia in a direct confrontation. It would have been like Gulf War I. Not sure either side realized how far apart they were in weapons, training, leadership and strategy.

I would think by now all of the Russian military knows general to conscript and it must be terrifying and demoralizing. I still hope this ends with a mass surrender/retreat by troops on ground refusing to fight another day. Keep hitting those commander tents and ammo dumps!
 

Tenacious E

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Can you imagine how bad US/NATO would have ****ed up Russia in a direct confrontation. It would have been like Gulf War I. Not sure either side realized how far apart they were in weapons, training, leadership and strategy.
These developments have made Maverick a completely far-fetched movie.
 
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lucas80

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While I have no doubt our motivations include doing the right thing, they also include protecting our national interests. A subset of that would be “live testing” equipment to better develop future weapons. So this capability gap should only grow from here….
Oh, I’ll bet that there are already contractors all over Ukraine poking into the smoldering wrecks of Russian equipment.
 

noleclone2

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These developments have made Maverick a completely far-fetched movie.
Yep. That is by far the most amazing thing. They never could get air superiority in fing Ukraine. Even the parts they “control” they are afraid to enter now. You know, maybe not having universal health care and free college was worth it for this moment.
 
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Tenacious E

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The U.S. government has not been willing to supply such a capability in the form of land-attack cruise missiles or ATACMS ballistic missiles due to the risk of escalating and broadening the conflict.
I am not sure this is true anymore, given yesterday. It would be nice if Ukraine had its own such capability. But, if it did have it and didn't obtain it, why wait 5 months to use it?