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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

You have to have the support of the local population to make this costly for the "invading army".

Conscripting locals and pushing them to the front, torturing civilians, ransacking/stealing are not things any occupying force does to endear the locals to their cause...
True.

If the Russians are smart....I don't think they are.

They just do a fighting withdrawal through the city. Ukrainian has to take back stuff bldg by bldg. That's costly work.

A more likely scenario is the Russians panicking and bugging out. But if they're willing to put up a fight it won't be easy. Never is in cities...negates whatever tech/hardware advantages you have.

Fallujah was tough fighting for the Marines in Iraq...just been that way throughout history when there's a determined defense.
 
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True.

If the Russians are smart....I don't think they are.

They just do a fighting withdrawal through the city. Ukrainian has to take back stuff bldg by bldg. That's costly work.

A more likely scenario is the Russians panicking and bugging out. But if they're willing to put up a fight it won't be easy. Never is in cities...negates whatever tech/hardware advantages you have.

Fallujah was tough fighting for the Marines in Iraq...just been that way throughout history when there's a determined defense.
The key word in your post is "determined" defense.

From much of the available reporting, it sounds like Russia is withdrawing its remaining seasoned, competent units to the East and backfilling Kherson with the scrubs that were recently mobilized and putting them there as a speed bump to slow the Ukrainians down.

I don't expect those new troops to do much other than get killed and surrender, which will slow the Ukes down a bit, but will not make for much of a defense. I do not see those guys fighting block-to-block, as they have zero motivation to do so.
 
True.

If the Russians are smart....I don't think they are.

They just do a fighting withdrawal through the city. Ukrainian has to take back stuff bldg by bldg. That's costly work.

A more likely scenario is the Russians panicking and bugging out. But if they're willing to put up a fight it won't be easy. Never is in cities...negates whatever tech/hardware advantages you have.

Fallujah was tough fighting for the Marines in Iraq...just been that way throughout history when there's a determined defense.
Still big advantages with tech and hardware in cities.
Most importantly is that NATO artillery should help them push Russian artillery out of range.
Then it is like Fallujah, where blue team’s superior firepower and ISR are a huge edge.
The Ukrainians won’t have to storm any buildings. Video so far shows they’re willing to drop them on their heads instead

2nd battle of Fallujah <100 American dead, 1-2k enemy KIA, 1.5k POW.

I don’t expect fanatical resistance from the Russians on the western bank in the end.
 
True.

If the Russians are smart....I don't think they are.

They just do a fighting withdrawal through the city. Ukrainian has to take back stuff bldg by bldg. That's costly work.

A more likely scenario is the Russians panicking and bugging out. But if they're willing to put up a fight it won't be easy. Never is in cities...negates whatever tech/hardware advantages you have.

Fallujah was tough fighting for the Marines in Iraq...just been that way throughout history when there's a determined defense.
That's why I think a smarter approach is to simply surround the city rather than attempt to retake it. Cut off the supply lines into the city, starve the invaders out and make headway throughout the rest of the country while continuing to drop missiles on any place you discover that Russians are coordinating from. Once you finish the rest of the war you can come back and mop up Kherson.
 
The key word in your post is "determined" defense.

From much of the available reporting, it sounds like Russia is withdrawing its remaining seasoned, competent units to the East and backfilling Kherson with the scrubs that were recently mobilized and putting them there as a speed bump to slow the Ukrainians down.

I don't expect those new troops to do much other than get killed and surrender, which will slow the Ukes down a bit, but will not make for much of a defense. I do not see those guys fighting block-to-block, as they have zero motivation to do so.
If that's true a collapse will come quick.
 
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Still big advantages with tech and hardware in cities.
Most importantly is that NATO artillery should help them push Russian artillery out of range.
Then it is like Fallujah, where blue team’s superior firepower and ISR are a huge edge.
The Ukrainians won’t have to storm any buildings. Video so far shows they’re willing to drop them on their heads instead

2nd battle of Fallujah <100 American dead, 1-2k enemy KIA, 1.5k POW.

I don’t expect fanatical resistance from the Russians on the western bank in the end.
Even if true that takes time....get's the Russians into winter on that front. 2nd Fallujah took 6 weeks to clear them out. Time is as big a factor as any in this war...
 
Even if true that takes time....get's the Russians into winter on that front. 2nd Fallujah took 6 weeks to clear them out. Time is as big a factor as any in this war...
I can't imagine this would be anything like Fallujah. In those cases not only did you have the armed forces to worry with, but every citizen you saw was potentially ready to drop a grenade on your head or lure you to a trap. I can't imagine the citizens of Kherson are going to be a problem for the Ukranian Army, and I'm not certain much of the Russian army really will as well. Especially if they're the new mobilized army and not something like Wagner.
 
Even if true that takes time....get's the Russians into winter on that front. 2nd Fallujah took 6 weeks to clear them out. Time is as big a factor as any in this war...
I think the Ukrainians have demonstrated they’ll go slow to preserve lives (and forces).
The counter offensive to re-take Kherson started over six weeks ago…
 
I can't imagine this would be anything like Fallujah. In those cases not only did you have the armed forces to worry with, but every citizen you saw was potentially ready to drop a grenade on your head or lure you to a trap. I can't imagine the citizens of Kherson are going to be a problem for the Ukranian Army, and I'm not certain much of the Russian army really will as well. Especially if they're the new mobilized army and not something like Wagner.
True...but the Iraqi's didn't have artillery batteries across the river they could call on for support.

If the Russians are determined they can make things difficult is all I'm saying.

There's a real question on whether they can put up a determined defense though. If they crumble and run forget what I typed in the previous posts :)
 
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True...but the Iraqi's didn't have artillery batteries across the river they could call on for support.
I think this is part of why they’re going slow. Mentioned a few days ago seeing video claiming single HIMARS rockets being used for counter battery in the Kherson region.
No need to Zerg rush the town. Creep forward, ID resistance, call in firepower, creep forward…
 
The key word in your post is "determined" defense.

From much of the available reporting, it sounds like Russia is withdrawing its remaining seasoned, competent units to the East and backfilling Kherson with the scrubs that were recently mobilized and putting them there as a speed bump to slow the Ukrainians down.

I don't expect those new troops to do much other than get killed and surrender, which will slow the Ukes down a bit, but will not make for much of a defense. I do not see those guys fighting block-to-block, as they have zero motivation to do so.
Looks like you're probably right. Don't think there'll be many volunteers for that militia :)

  • All men remaining in Kherson have been invited to join a newly formed local militia. In a notice on Telegram, the occupation authorities said men had the “opportunity” to join territorial defence units if they chose to remain in Kherson of their own free will. Compelling civilians to serve in the armed forces of an occupying power is defined as a breach of the Geneva conventions.
  • Russia is bringing new military units into Kherson as it prepares to defend the city in the face of the advancing Ukrainian counteroffensive, the head of Ukraine’s defence intelligence directorate has said. Kyrylo Budanov also said Russia would slow Ukrainian troops’ advance in the south by only about two weeks if it blows up the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam near Kherson.

 
That's why I think a smarter approach is to simply surround the city rather than attempt to retake it. Cut off the supply lines into the city, starve the invaders out and make headway throughout the rest of the country while continuing to drop missiles on any place you discover that Russians are coordinating from. Once you finish the rest of the war you can come back and mop up Kherson.
You have no need to "starve" cities.

You simply need to cut off the re-supply of ammunitions. The population will happily point out where the Rashists are hiding. And they won't get food unless they steal it from the population, which will make them even MORE likely to "out" where they are.
 
“Settlement’s”

See this repeatedly in dispatches. Do they mean towns and village’s? What would qualify as a “settlement”?
Pretty sure they do mean towns and villages no matter how small.

What I wonder is do the men who remained in these re-captured areas who are not pro Russian, now give Ukraine a bigger manpower pool or did only the old, young and Orc lovers remain when Russia controlled the area?
 
Ff5INyDXgAAynEq
If Ukraine has knocked out 1/4 of the Ka-52s, I wonder what kind of shape the rest are in? Plus, we've seen issues with Russian supply lines and maintenance. You have to figure conservatively that 1/4 are out of service normally.
 
My experience with ex-Warsaw pact era bases is decidedly old (20 years ago)

Went on a training deployment to a base outside Bratislava Slovakia....originally it was supposed to be F-16's and A-10's. After a sight survey we just brought A-10's. The concrete on the runways and taxiways was so bad (lots of area's broken up because of the poor quality of the concrete) that the F-16's were cancelled. Too big a risk of FOD (foreign object damage). All the facilities were extremely poor.

Even with the A-10's we had to change tires much more rapidly because the poor surface ate them up...FOD isn't as big a problem for them because of the engines are located much higher up (F-16 suck up any and all debris) and they're designed to operate from poor quality airfields...

Anyway, heard the same thing about the Polish bases...but this is old info.

Bottom line is those bases required a lot of upgrades.

I'm sure that's been addressed in the last 20 years but it's the main reason we haven't seen US aircraft stationed farther east since the end of the cold war and NATO expansion east.

Those bases needed a LOT of work.
Good info. I do know from some reporting we have put F-22s and F-16s forward after the Russian invasion, and when you look around you see that Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Poland for sure are all buying F-16s. I take that to mean that airfield questions have been addressed.
 
The key word in your post is "determined" defense.

From much of the available reporting, it sounds like Russia is withdrawing its remaining seasoned, competent units to the East and backfilling Kherson with the scrubs that were recently mobilized and putting them there as a speed bump to slow the Ukrainians down.

I don't expect those new troops to do much other than get killed and surrender, which will slow the Ukes down a bit, but will not make for much of a defense. I do not see those guys fighting block-to-block, as they have zero motivation to do so.
I'm not seeing a Stalingrad 2.0 kind of defense from the Russians happening. The meat sacks that Russia is deploying right now are not as determined as the men and women of Stalingrad. These guys in Kherson are looking for the first way out.
 
Good info. I do know from some reporting we have put F-22s and F-16s forward after the Russian invasion, and when you look around you see that Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Poland for sure are all buying F-16s. I take that to mean that airfield questions have been addressed.
Hungary? You sure about that? The guy who runs Hungary is a Putin butt licker.
 
Good info. I do know from some reporting we have put F-22s and F-16s forward after the Russian invasion, and when you look around you see that Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Poland for sure are all buying F-16s. I take that to mean that airfield questions have been addressed.
Agree. I'm thinking runways, taxiways and ramps are all good. The question is some of the infrastructure...hangers, maintenance facilities. I know we were beefing up a base in Romania and one in Poland a few years ago.
 
My porn nomme de geurre is going to be "Hung Gary" --- a well-endowed Eastern European with a preference for thicker ladies.
Nice. Is that the bait you lure the fish with? ;)

How was the trout fishing? Where did you go?
 
True...but the Iraqi's didn't have artillery batteries across the river they could call on for support.

If the Russians are determined they can make things difficult is all I'm saying.

There's a real question on whether they can put up a determined defense though. If they crumble and run forget what I typed in the previous posts :)
How long will Russian's have artillery batteries. They seem to disappear pretty quickly.
 
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