Almost zero chance Kamala wins at this point. Obama is on the trail trying to shame people into voting for her. He has more stump speeches than her lately. Think that through and where things must really stand for him to do that. He sure didn't roll put for Joe in the last campaign and sure didn't do much at all until she became the nominee
True or False: The polls are wrong and Kamala is going to win in a landslide
- Thread starter RagnarLothbrok
- Start date
Worried the left may try to burn dc down again?
Kamala wins a nail biter, primarily driven by women and young voters turning out in record numbers.
Then Trump spends another 4 years whining about a stolen election and grifting his followers for more money.
Then Trump spends another 4 years whining about a stolen election and grifting his followers for more money.
hawkeyetraveler
HB Heisman
The betting markets are being heavily influenced by a few very large bets towards Trump. There was an article detailing this in the last 24 hours. It is not an accurate reflection of the voting base this time around due to that influence.
Trump has a real shot to win, but it isn’t as one sided as these markets make it seem.
This isn't true. Trump can win Georgia, AZ, NV, and NC and that would only give him 268
https://www.270towin.com/maps/kyEYG
I recall Hillary being up by 10 points in 2016. Pools mean nada.
Correct.
And I think Kamala wins Nevada.
If she wins the rust belt states, which I am guessing she does, Donnie is done.
Maybe I've been around more drunks.... functional alcoholics. And I'm not making light of it. Impacted my upbringing severely.
I also see a 270/268 win for Harris.
I think the Republicans see this too and it’s why they pushed so hard to try and change the rules in Nebraska.
I think the Republicans see this too and it’s why they pushed so hard to try and change the rules in Nebraska.
I can't say either way because I truly think polls are worthless. I can give you an accurate statistic in that 49% of the country will be pissed sometime after Nov 5th.
Harris will landslide Trump. She may even win Florida or Texas. Trump is that weak.
Trump IS that weak. But are there enough decent people left to make that happen?
I think there will be a big crossover this election with lots of moderate Rs voting for her. Indies will heavily break for her. Trump has whittled his possible voters down to die hard MAGAs. That's really poor strategy. His ceiling is 48. But he will probably get closer to 44-45. That will be a route against Harris getting 50.
I think the polls more accurate this time around. One big change is that many pollsters are now overweighting interviewees who previously voted for Trump to increase their impact on poll results.
Who has the most energy? Who has the most enthusiasm? Who has the biggest rallies, the most donors, the most volunteers, the better ground game? It's Harris. Harris by a mile. Literally the only thing keeping Trump alive this election are the polls. And half of them are garbage right-wing ones. And even then when have the polls ever predicted the winner? Trump is going to be in a world of hurt in two weeks.
Polls suck in general. Everybody members Hillary, but a lot of people forget that Romney was supposed to have cleaned Obama's clock in 2012. Mitt lead the polls the entire election. It was as steady of a lead as you could imagine. The whole time. All the way to election night. So steady that Mitt never even bothered to write a concession speech. And Obama beat him pretty soundly. Ignore the polls. They're meaningless.
Demincrats looking down on and dismissing average Americans yet again. They are the smartest people in the room.
It isn't going to go well for Kamala
It isn't going to go well for Kamala
I think Kamala wins a narrow EC victory, mainly due to women motivated by his involvement with the overturning of Roe Vs. Wade. Also, the enthusiasm of Trump voters has declined since 2016, while Kamala has more enthusiasm from Dem-leaning voters than Biden did, and WAY more enthusiasm than Hillary Clinton did.
If Trump wins, he will probably win by a wider EC margin, but not a landslide.
Either way, Kamala will definitely win the popular vote.
Per David Plouffe, Trump is underperforming with the following groups, compared to 2020.
- Women
- College-educated voters
- Older White voters in the Midwest
He also says that the rightward shift among Latino voters is disproportionately concentrated in Florida, so it may not have a significant impact on the current battleground states.
Trump support among Black men is being overblown.
If Trump wins, he will probably win by a wider EC margin, but not a landslide.
Either way, Kamala will definitely win the popular vote.
Per David Plouffe, Trump is underperforming with the following groups, compared to 2020.
- Women
- College-educated voters
- Older White voters in the Midwest
He also says that the rightward shift among Latino voters is disproportionately concentrated in Florida, so it may not have a significant impact on the current battleground states.
Trump support among Black men is being overblown.
Trump's campaign isn't geared for average people. Dude talks about eating pets and hydrogen cars blowing up people's faces after Hannibal lector and windmills being bullshit. All of this is geared for whackjobs.
Trump doesn't have his shit together. Hasn't anyone noticed that there are endless failures at his rallies? Just yesterday his microphone went out for 20 minutes and he paced around like a Dipshit. And then said he would stiff the crew on payment. If he doesn't have his crap together to put on rallies, he surely doesn't have his crap together to turn out voters. And he definitely doesn't have his crap together to run the nation.
apnews.com
A failed mic leaves Donald Trump pacing the stage in silence for nearly 20 minutes
Donald Trump paced his rally stage in silence for nearly 20 minutes Friday night in Detroit after his microphone cut out.
apnews.com
One data point that I have heard is favoring Harris is small dollar donations. Donors tend to be motivated voters. Reports are that the Trump campaign has struggled with these donors lately and Harris has been steady.
David Plouffe disagrees. He’s saying DT Barnum’s support in the battleground states is “baked in” at 48-48.5%. Harris is chasing 49%.
Absolutely not 48 is his absolute ceiling. But his ground game is the worst in modern history so he probably won't hit that. Harris routinely goes over 50. Pretty hard to win elections when your opponent goes over 50.
In 2016, Trump represented change and being an outsider. 8 years later, most sane people have recognized that he's a complete POS human being that only cares about himself. His ceiling is much lower in 2024.
Don’t forget stupid people. My wife said that while she was voting a lady in line was talking about all the illegals voting. Sigh.
If you can bring in an Obama, you absolutely bring in an Obama. Only a moron would bench this dude if they had him available. Why isn't Mitt rallying for Trump? Google the answer if you have to.
I guess he forgot the Red Tsunami that Obama campaigned for or 2020
Yes, you are right...people love to bet on a candidate just to lose money so they can create momentum on social media sites...NOT....
Betting markets reflect the current state of polling pure and simple....polling can be right or wrong....we will all find out..
