Ironically, it’s usually the opposite. How many evangelicals or Catholics have cast a vote based on wanting to see abortion banned?
True or False: The polls are wrong and Kamala is going to win in a landslide
- Thread starter RagnarLothbrok
- Start date
Like I have always said, there is a reason Trump is obsessed with Obama.
At least Arnold's dick is a real thing....not the stupidest or most outlandish thing he's said this week.
It's real but it's 6th grade shit. Dude is insane. Look at the Trump supporters on here. Would you ever want to meet these losers in any capacity? Fk no.
As we covered in that other thread, FL registrations are down almost 5% (719,825 fewer voters).
Trump won 5,668,731 last time (51.22%), from a 75.98% turnout of 14,565,738 registered voters.
Assuming identical turnout, the same share of the current 13,845,913 would be 5,388,588 voters (-280,143).
If he increased his absolute vote count from 2020 in Florida it would require capturing (53.88% of the votes cast (assuming same turnout rate).
All that to say, if you want to bet on whether Trump increases his share of the vote relative to 2020, I'm game.
I wouldn't make a bet on the absolute count because of the decrease in registrations.
I was in NE Iowa today and the number of Trump signs on lawns was frankly shocking. I did see a few Harris Walz but at not anywhere near the same number.
I'll take that bet. Just to take the bet. There is no way Trump is increasing his voters. He has done nothing to gain more voters. All he's done is to boil away the moderators to concentrate the remaining MAGAts. He also has alienated independents. Harris will take the lion share of them. I get that you're basing a lot of this off polls, but as has been said, a lot of these polls are garbage.
I also I appreciate that you've taken the time to find these numbers. That's much appreciated. But each election is different. You can't assume a pandemic year will mirror a non pandemic year. You also can't assume that all Republican voters will vote for Trump. Harris has hundreds of endorsements for Republicans including his former staff, former Republican Congress members, and even former Republican Vice Presidents. It's clear she will have a lot of Republicans voting for her.
I'm in the Iowa City area. The lack of Trump signs is shocking. There were way more in 16 and 20.
Iowa City? Any Trump signs at all would be a miracle.
Well I agree it is but you were implying Trumps support might be overestimated.
And you also mentioned a nationwide abortion ban prior, which is a complete lie. Trump has stated over and over again there is no plan for this.
Lastly, Ive grown weary of your “I used to be a conservative now I can't vote Trump” assertions. If you truly were a con but anti Trump no way you would be spreading flat out falsehoods.
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Trump won 27% of the vote in 2016 and 2020. So not exactly 30-40 percent. Unless people put out Trump signs and then decided to vote otherwise later. No that would be flat out silly. In fact, id guess the vast majority of voters don't actually have out a sign at all, especially in Johnson County.
I'll vote Trump and dont have a Trump sign on my lawn.
So id say your claims don't pass them smell test frankly. But sure. Johnson County doesn't like Trump. Agreed.
Tired, you must be oh so tired.
You’re an idiot.
I asserted none of those things and your last paragraph reads like you are smoking crack.
Jesus.
But Republicans gained voters right? Should be easy...but how about this he doesn't win 3.5 points I win and if Florida flips you pay double meaning double the time up to a year
Nah. Only tired of the HBOT left's BS.
Kamala is not winning this election IMO and certainly not in a landslide.
I'm anxious for election day to get here because I am ready to see who takes the prize. Love this time on the calendar.
Trump Leaves Door Open to National Abortion Ban
The Republican presidential candidate also praised his appointed justices who overturned Roe v Wade.
I'm going off memory. He had a lot. Around a third in those years. And he has way less now. Less than ten percent. They're only yard signs but that suggests an enthusiasm problem. Couple that with his dwindling rally sizes and his fundraising problems with small donors and it looks likely that he might have problems turning out actual voters.
Edited. You did assert those things.
‘Kamala has the abortion ban backlash on her side’
There is no abortion ban. So I had to assume you were referring to the false claim that he will pass an abortion ban were he to be elected.
He would absolutely pass an abortion ban given the opportunity. Get out of here with this bullshit.
I guarantee he wont. If he wins I have 1000$ that says he doesn't.
Again, I'd be willing to bet on an increased share, not absolute count of voters vis-a-vis 2020.
I'm basing it on the changes in this state's electorate since the pandemic.
Trump has been polling higher with Blacks and Hispanics, every poll is pointing to gains there.
Trump gains momentum among Florida's Hispanic voters, study finds
By Larry Seward
Updated on: October 17, 2024
A Marist College study released last week found 58% of Hispanic voters in Florida lean toward casting ballots for Trump.
People like you guaranteed his supreme court wouldn't kill roe, too. Your promises are bullshit too. You guys are liars.
The. Polls. Are. Garbage. They were in 22. They are now. And now Trump is getting near 60% of the Hispanic vote? What planet are you living on?Again, I'd be willing to bet on an increased share, not absolute count of voters vis-a-vis 2020.
I'm basing it on the changes in this state's electorate since the pandemic.
Trump has been polling higher with Blacks and Hispanics, every poll is pointing to gains there.
Trump gains momentum among Florida's Hispanic voters, study finds
By Larry Seward
Updated on: October 17, 2024
A Marist College study released last week found 58% of Hispanic voters in Florida lean toward casting ballots for Trump.
I didn't. I'm was 100% for Roes reversal. I'm also against a nationwide ban. As is Trump. He's said so.
How about that bet?
In Florida, yes.
So, avatar bet, duration 1 year from the vote certification in Florida.
I win if Trump increases his vote share from the 2020 value of 51.22%. Game?
This way I can have the quote bet with jreed on the same subject, different 'payout'.
- Sep 13, 2002
- 97,951
- 204,304
- 113
I choose to hang on to the shred of hope I have that enough Americans have the moral clarity to not choose a rapist conman traitor serial liar and convicted felon to the highest office in the land.
It is incredibly disappointing it will be as close as it will be regardless. We are now a profoundly unserious nation.
It is incredibly disappointing it will be as close as it will be regardless. We are now a profoundly unserious nation.
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- Sep 13, 2002
- 97,951
- 204,304
- 113
Real patriotic and moral Americans don’t vote for rapists.
I don’t know about a landslide, but I do believe the polls republicans put out are false and KH will be our next president.
It won't be close. People are realizing Trump is a lunatic, even traditional Republicans.
