Updated Playoff Grid as of 11/7 with New Poll

[SotaHawk87]

I made a playoff grid with schedule and dates according to the 24 teams that ESPN has "eligible" for the playoff.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...cKzyF-Vrz4iX0XMBRdXo8u5Ks/edit#gid=1232168876

Updated with new rankings as of 11/7..

 

[yerpHAWK]

Can't help you with the link, but I think I know what you're getting at, and I'll break it down.

As it stands now there are 14 undefeated teams, which is a lot more than compared to last year at this time(6) unfortunately for us.

I am just going to go on the context of using all the undefeated teams and trim some of the fat not being official, and adding in Bama Texas A and M, Stanford, Florida, and Oklahoma, because they all have a chance for big wins, and could get in winning their conference. I'm also going to eliminate the 4 non powers, because with 5 power conferences, and 4 spots, it's hard to justify they'd get in.

So the ACC has 2 teams (Florida State, and Clemson) So the FSU and Clemson game could ultimately decide the ACC. This is the weakest conference of the 5, and could easily get left out, especially if FSU drops one to Florida, but is the winner.

The Big 12 has 4 teams (Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma) This could actually hinder the conference, as there is no conference championship, and if everyone beats up on each other, and the conference champ comes out with one loss, it could also find it's way on the outside. The Baylor TCU game is looking to be the conference championship for now, and if they champ comes out unschathed, or a definitive champ is established, that will be their 1 team.

The B1G has 3 teams (OSU, MSU, and.... Iowa. god that sounds good) This is pretty easy, OSU vs MSU will decide the East, and
the conference championship, if it includes an undefeated Iowa, will decide the playoff berth.

Pac 12 has 2 teams (Utah, Stanford) Well once again, this is made simple. The Utah Stanford game should decide the berth. Stanford does have a tough schedule remaining though.

SEC has 4 (LSU, Bama, A & M, Florida) Ah the always convoluted SEC. LSU right now is the front runner, and looks to play Florida for a rematch in the CCG. Bama obviously could come back beat, LSU, and steal that berth as well. They will not be left out.

So in conclusion, It will Be the SEC champ, the B12 Champ, The big ten champ, and the Pac 12 champ for the final 4.
So I think right now the playoff looks

 

[thewop]

Go to Google Docs (search "Google Docs", make viewable to public, and click on "get link," then paste link everywhere you want.

 

[SotaHawk87]

Thanks wop, I posted in original message..

 

[20Hawks14]

Pretty cool spread sheet. Much appreciated.

 

[Ray Kinsella]

Very nice.

BTW, you have Notre Dame playing Temple in Week 8 and a bye in Week 9. Those should be switched around.

And does green represent undefeated Power 5 schools? If so, Alabama should be yellow.

 

[SotaHawk87]

Very nice.

BTW, you have Notre Dame playing Temple in Week 8 and a bye in Week 9. Those should be switched around.

And does green represent undefeated Power 5 schools? If so, Alabama should be yellow.

Nice, thanks.. fixed! So ZERO games this week where potential playoff teams play each other..

 

[SotaHawk87]

ESPN actually still has Wisconsin and Michigan still in contention to total 26. I'm not adding them until they win a few more..

 

[SotaHawk87]

Updated as of Thursday night.. California gone!!

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

I am not convinced an undefeated Florida State or 11-1 Notre Dame get left out. Say what you want, but the committee has the human factor which I hate and with that it can be about name. That is why I love computer polls, they do not care what your name is.

 

[Ray Kinsella]

You'll need to enter a bye next week for Baylor, pushing the rest of their games out a week.

 

[SotaHawk87]

I will be updating after this Stanford game and add that in, thanks!

 

[Herkmeister]

Can't help you with the link, but I think I know what you're getting at, and I'll break it down.

As it stands now there are 14 undefeated teams, which is a lot more than compared to last year at this time(6) unfortunately for us.

I am just going to go on the context of using all the undefeated teams and trim some of the fat not being official, and adding in Bama Texas A and M, Stanford, Florida, and Oklahoma, because they all have a chance for big wins, and could get in winning their conference. I'm also going to eliminate the 4 non powers, because with 5 power conferences, and 4 spots, it's hard to justify they'd get in.

So the ACC has 2 teams (Florida State, and Clemson) So the FSU and Clemson game could ultimately decide the ACC. This is the weakest conference of the 5, and could easily get left out, especially if FSU drops one to Florida, but is the winner.

The Big 12 has 4 teams (Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma) This could actually hinder the conference, as there is no conference championship, and if everyone beats up on each other, and the conference champ comes out with one loss, it could also find it's way on the outside. The Baylor TCU game is looking to be the conference championship for now, and if they champ comes out unschathed, or a definitive champ is established, that will be their 1 team.

The B1G has 3 teams (OSU, MSU, and.... Iowa. god that sounds good) This is pretty easy, OSU vs MSU will decide the East, and
the conference championship, if it includes an undefeated Iowa, will decide the playoff berth.

Pac 12 has 2 teams (Utah, Stanford) Well once again, this is made simple. The Utah Stanford game should decide the berth. Stanford does have a tough schedule remaining though.

SEC has 4 (LSU, Bama, A & M, Florida) Ah the always convoluted SEC. LSU right now is the front runner, and looks to play Florida for a rematch in the CCG. Bama obviously could come back beat, LSU, and steal that berth as well. They will not be left out.

So in conclusion, It will Be the SEC champ, the B12 Champ, The big ten champ, and the Pac 12 champ for the final 4.
So I think right now the playoff looks

Boy did this change. Bottom line............. An undefeated Iowa is a lock. A FLAT LOCK!!!!

 

[SotaHawk87]

Updated through tonight.. Will reformat after rankings tomorrow and remove CAL and Texas AM as they have been "eliminated"

 

[MeetTheFerentz]

So does Green mean the team is undefeated....unless it's a mid-major, then it's yellow like the 1-loss Power-5 teams?

 

[SotaHawk87]

So does Green mean the team is undefeated....unless it's a mid-major, then it's yellow like the 1-loss Power-5 teams?

Green means basically control their own destiny while yellow means need help..

 

[HawkeyeFan3810]

SotaHawk - great work here compiling the schedules! Not to look past this upcoming weekend, but wow, week 10 is loaded with top matchups! Looking forward to how this all plays out...

 

[Birdmanil]

One thing nobody is talking about but can still happen is if Ole Miss runs the table they win the SEC West. If Memphis wins out they would have beaten Temple and Houston on the road, and already beaten Ole Miss. Say both Ole Miss and Memphis win their conference title games. I think Memphis will get in over the rebels.

 

[PHXIowaClub]

Pac 12 gets left out of the playoff if Clemson runs the table. I think it will end up Ohio State, Clemson, Baylor/TCU winner, LSU/Bama winner

 

[SiouxCityHawkFan]

Nice work. Thanks! Might add teams record next to their names.

 

[markfromj]

Green means basically control their own destiny while yellow means need help..

Great work on the spreadsheet.

But 6 teams (the green 6) cannot "control their own destiny" for a 4 team playoff.

"Control your own destiny" has a long-established specific sports meaning (which Kirk tried to blur late last season), which is that, if a team wins out, they get the given destiny being discussed. Iowa "controls its own destiny" right now, that being the Big Ten West title, in that if Iowa wins out, they win the division. No one else "controls their own destiny". All other teams need Iowa to lose once or more.

Truly, no team "controls their destiny" for the playoff, since the 4 playoff teams are selected by a committee, and not strictly by the outcome of remaining games.

 

[KuwaitHawk]

Great work on the spreadsheet.

But 6 teams (the green 6) cannot "control their own destiny" for a 4 team playoff.

"Control your own destiny" has a long-established specific sports meaning (which Kirk tried to blur late last season), which is that, if a team wins out, they get the given destiny being discussed. Iowa "controls its own destiny" right now, that being the Big Ten West title, in that if Iowa wins out, they win the division. No one else "controls their own destiny". All other teams need Iowa to lose once or more.

Truly, no team "controls their destiny" for the playoff, since the 4 playoff teams are selected by a committee, and not strictly by the outcome of remaining games.

Small correction, Wisconsin needs IOWA to lose TWICE. One loss means a tie and Iowa hold that tiebreaker. All the other B1G teams have at least 2 losses and Iowa holds tie breakers over NW and Illinois. We will add Minnesota to that list on the 14th.

 

[markfromj]

Small correction, Wisconsin needs IOWA to lose TWICE. One loss means a tie and Iowa hold that tiebreaker. All the other B1G teams have at least 2 losses and Iowa holds tie breakers over NW and Illinois. We will add Minnesota to that list on the 14th.

Correct. I was sloppy there.

 

[TankHawk]

Pac 12 gets left out of the playoff if Clemson runs the table. I think it will end up Ohio State, Clemson, Baylor/TCU winner, LSU/Bama winner

I'm not sure either TCU or Baylor will be going into that game undefeated. They both play Oklahoma and currently unbeaten Okie State before they meet each other. I think at least one of them and possibly both trip up before that final showdown.

 

[SotaHawk87]

Great work on the spreadsheet.

But 6 teams (the green 6) cannot "control their own destiny" for a 4 team playoff.

"Control your own destiny" has a long-established specific sports meaning (which Kirk tried to blur late last season), which is that, if a team wins out, they get the given destiny being discussed. Iowa "controls its own destiny" right now, that being the Big Ten West title, in that if Iowa wins out, they win the division. No one else "controls their own destiny". All other teams need Iowa to lose once or more.

Truly, no team "controls their destiny" for the playoff, since the 4 playoff teams are selected by a committee, and not strictly by the outcome of remaining games.

Circle back with me Mark and maybe we don't ever find out and with the number of games against each other we probably won't. But of those 6 teams they all still have a chance to win out. IF they did, they would be in the playoff. We know there will at most only be one B12, one B10, one ACC, and one SEC and thats best case scenario. If those 4 teams went undefeated they would be in the playoff.. But like I said, let's just wait maybe we will find out!

 

[markfromj]

But of those 6 teams they all still have a chance to win out.

When I pushed back earlier on the "6 teams cannot all make a 4 team playoff" point, I had not even looked at who your 6 teams were. Now that I have, I see your point. It is not that "all have a chance to win out", it is that EACH has a chance to win out. But someone is going to lose between TCU and Baylor, and someone is going to lose between OSU and MSU, getting your 6 down to 4.

 

[DirtyJohns97]

You can make Alabama green, they won't need any help. The other power 5 will thin it down to three undefeateds maximum. If they beat Lsu and run the table, they will be in the top 4

 

[Ray Kinsella]

You can make Alabama green, they won't need any help. The other power 5 will thin it down to three undefeateds maximum. If they beat Lsu and run the table, they will be in the top 4

But if Ole Miss also runs the table, they will win the SEC West ahead of 'Bama, and I don't see a team not even winning their division making it to the playoffs.

 

[SlabHawk]

Man, if Iowa wins the next two, the hype machine will be off the charts for this team with two VERY winnable home games coming up after that. By then, this list of 22 schools could be narrowed down to about 10 - 12 as there are several tough games coming up for many of these as potential losses. Cheering for NC State (to beat Clemson), West Virginia (TCU), Wazzu (Standford), Temple (Notre Dame), Texas Tech (Okie State), Georgia (Florida), and Pitt (N Carolina and also helps strength of Sched) this weekend. It could be that 3 or 4 of these things happen.

Love this football season! Go Hawks!

 

[SotaHawk87]

But if Ole Miss also runs the table, they will win the SEC West ahead of 'Bama, and I don't see a team not even winning their division making it to the playoffs.

And this is the only reason I had not done that yet.. I actually had Alabama as green until I realized that scenario!

 

[DirtyJohns97]

But if Ole Miss also runs the table, they will win the SEC West ahead of 'Bama, and I don't see a team not even winning their division making it to the playoffs.

Good point, while it doesn't seem likely that Ole Miss will run the table, youre right, that should keep Bama in the yellow. That being said, I could still see Bama making it without winning their division

 

[SotaHawk87]

Good point, while it doesn't seem likely that Ole Miss will run the table, youre right, that should keep Bama in the yellow. That being said, I could still see Bama making it without winning their division

I could see it too and it would be a damn travesty after what went down last year. Supposedly conference champion is supposed to mean a lot!

 

[Packer54]

If we win out the regular season (if my math is correct) the worst we should be ranked is 6th.

In other words the MINIMUM happens in front of us:

- ND/Stanford win out until they play each other
- LSU/Alabama wins out beyond their head to head
- OSU/Michigan St win out beyond their head to head
- TCU/Baylor win out beyond their head to head

Did I figure that right? In other words we would jump all of the losers in the head to head or would the polls still have us sitting behind Ohio State if they lost?

This is just a minimum.....a whole lot of possibilities boys and girls. If we win out it is MORE likely we are ranked around 4th in the polls than 6th. (Maybe I need to stop looking at this but after the last few years this is fun being in this spot for a change as opposed to NOT caring who is 1 through 10).

 

[SotaHawk87]

If we win out the regular season (if my math is correct) the worst we should be ranked is 6th.

In other words the MINIMUM happens in front of us:

- ND/Stanford win out until they play each other
- LSU/Alabama wins out beyond their head to head
- OSU/Michigan St win out beyond their head to head
- TCU/Baylor win out beyond their head to head

Did I figure that right? In other words we would jump all of the losers in the head to head or would the polls still have us sitting behind Ohio State if they lost?

This is just a minimum.....a whole lot of possibilities boys and girls. If we win out it is MORE likely we are ranked around 4th in the polls than 6th. (Maybe I need to stop looking at this but after the last few years this is fun being in this spot for a change as opposed to NOT caring who is 1 through 10).

You did it right.. I would expect we would begin to jump some of those teams too.. Probably not Alabama but Notre Dame and Stanford I would think

 

[PHXIowaClub]

You can see Iowa is the only power 5 school who won't play another contender the rest of the year (until B1G championship). Big 12 teams will knock each other off as they all start to play each other soon

 

[SotaHawk87]

Updated as of 10/29.. TCU adds a win and unfortunately we lose our Pittsburgh buddies.

 

[SotaHawk87]

Updated as of 11/1.. Stanford still in progress but we cut Duke and Temple today..

 

[SlabHawk]

If you love college football, November is going to be such a great month of drama! You have 19 teams highlighted with a chance to make the playoffs with either one loss or no losses currently. Looking at their key games:

Pac 12:
North Leader Stanford still has Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame to play + south winner (likely Utah).
South Leader Utah still has Washington, AZ (on the road) plus a tough UCLA team + North winner Stanford. Best Case Scenario, Stanford beats Notre Dame. Utah loses to UCLA but beats Stanford in the title game. All VERY possible. Pac 12 is basically eliminated. Notre Dame is eliminated as well.

Big 12:
Baylor without their star QB for the rest of the season has K State on the road this week (tough environment) + Oklahoma, at Okie St, at TCU, and a good defense with Texas. Possibly two losses there with a freshman QB.
TCU at Okie St, at Oklahoma, and Baylor at home. 1 loss?
Oklahoma at Baylor, TCU at home, and at Okie St (hope for them to win first 2 and lose at Bedlam to Okie St)
Okie State with TCU at home, at Iowa St (scary game for them), Baylor at home and at Oklahoma (2 or 3 losses)

SEC
LSU winning this week at Alabama would be a good thing, then lose to Ark, Ole Miss, or A & M + they play may play Florida in the championship unless Ole Miss gets there if they run the table. (2 possible losses if they lose this weekend).
Alabama eliminated if they lose this weekend with 2 losses. If they win, Florida in the championship game awaits them if Ole Miss loses one.
Ole Miss has Arkansas, LSU and at Miss St. If they win all three, they get Florida in the title game. They already have two losses.

ACC
Clemson losing to FSU this weekend would be huge. If they win, other possible loss would be rivalry game at S. Carolina or a surging N. Carolina team in the ACC title game.
Florida St - one more loss eliminates them at either Clemson this weekend, home to NC State, or at Florida. Winning the next three has them likely facing UNC in the title game.
N. Carolina 3 of the last 4 are home games with Duke, Miami, NC State (I think they win out in the reg season). Would have to play Clemson (or possibly FSU) in the title game.

Notre Dame has at Pitt and at Stanford as key games. An 11- 1 ND will be attractive to the committee in the top 5 by seasons end. Hopefully Stanford loses elsewhere but beats ND.

Big Ten
Ohio St home at MSU and at Michigan then possibly Iowa (or Wisc) in title game
Sparty has at OSU and a surging good defense in Penn St followed by possibly Iowa or WI in the title game
Iowa at Indiana, at Neb and possibly either OSU, MSU, or Michigan in the title game
Michigan can still possibly get to the title game but has at Penn St and OSU at home as elimination games

Others:
Memphis has Navy, Houston, at Temple (lose at Houston, maybe at Temple)
Houston has Cincy, Memphis, Navy all at home (I think they run the table)
Winner of Houston and Memphis will likely have to play Temple (again) in the conf title game.

There are SO many losses for all of these 18 or 19 teams that still have a shot at the playoffs so it will be fun to see how things look two weeks from now. If Iowa wins this weekend, I don't think they are going to lose in the regular season and will be sitting at possibly 3rd or 4th in the country as other teams knock each other out, prior to Indianapolis. Go Hawks!!!

 

[BondHawk]

Don't forget about Florida in that mix. They have already hammered Ole Miss, play FSU in a few weeks, and their only loss was on a fake FG and dropped TD pass against LSU in Baton Rouge. They will either get a chance to avenge that loss, knock off Alabama, or hammer Ole Miss again in the SEC Championship.

 

[neversurrender]

If MSU, OSU and Michigan take each other out over the next month how much does that affect us even if we win the big 10? would us undefeated with a win over a 1 loss east team get us in if LSU, Clemson, TCU/Baylor/Okie St ( 1 of the 3), Houston/Memphis (1 or the other) are undefeated and ND/Stanford have only one loss?

ND worries more than Stanford with one loss due to common opponents. We beat up N/W at N/W Stanford loss to them at N/W advantage us. if N/D beats Pitt by more than 3 at Pitt that could be viewed as a better win than us winning by 3 at home and put them in front of us. Yes I know many things would have to happen for that sort of scenario o come up but just wondering thoughts on it