What is the answer?

[OldHawkFan]

I’m not here to bag on our team. Those guys are Hawks through and through and they put it on the line every time they stepped in the circle.

But we have circled the Wagons for the last decade and PSU having our number for 5 out of every 6 years is not cutting the mustard.

I don’t for one second think the sport has passed TnT by. I think they are world class, but something has to change.
I certainly know it’s better here than places like Oklahoma State right now. I don’t envy them with what to do with John Smith.

It seems every year we fool ourselves thinking that “if we catch a break here” or “if they slip up there” we have a SHOT.

It’s time to take a real hard look at what is going on and fix the problem. And no, I don’t think filling the line up with transfers is the answer.
Plug a guy in… sure. But when you are praying for 4-5 guys to save the program, you are asking for trouble.

I think the easy answer is recruiting, but why are we failing so much there?

It seems that many of the very top guys in the nation would rather wrestle at places like Ohio State, let alone PSU, over Iowa.

I’m not looking to throw anyone under the bus. I firmly believe Iowa can get back on top and it’s not going to take a miracle.

But you certainly can’t keep the status quo and say, “we just gotta work a little harder” or “gotta find a way to score more points”.

Something big has got to give.

 

[Redm18]

Think like a top level recruit what factors into your decision? Here are my bullets in no particular order and probably incomplete.

1. Relationships with coaches very personal
2. Facilities new wrestling building
3. Academics do they have my major? Fast track to a good career with an alumnis firm?
4. Program position will I win a team title?
5. Location how close to home?
6. Environment cha arena vs split with a gymnastics meet at Maryland?
7. Nil money
8. Culture? Do I get along with the rest of the team?

Where are weak? Where are we strong? What's out of our control?

 

[Hawk fan in Minn]

I hate to say it and I will get flack for it but the current run by PSU under Cael is just like the run Iowa had under Dan Gable. A vast majority of the top recruits want to go to PSU because when they are there and they crack the lineup there is a very good chance they will do well at Nationals and that the team will most likely win national championships.

I don’t think there are any better coaches out there than Tom and Terry to challenge PSU. THey bleed black and gold and if a light weight wrestler wants to win a championship I would think Iowa would have to be at the top of the list.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

I’m not here to bag on our team. Those guys are Hawks through and through and they put it on the line every time they stepped in the circle.

But we have circled the Wagons for the last decade and PSU having our number for 5 out of every 6 years is not cutting the mustard.

I don’t for one second think the sport has passed TnT by. I think they are world class, but something has to change.
I certainly know it’s better here than places like Oklahoma State right now. I don’t envy them with what to do with John Smith.

It seems every year we fool ourselves thinking that “if we catch a break here” or “if they slip up there” we have a SHOT.

It’s time to take a real hard look at what is going on and fix the problem. And no, I don’t think filling the line up with transfers is the answer.
Plug a guy in… sure. But when you are praying for 4-5 guys to save the program, you are asking for trouble.

I think the easy answer is recruiting, but why are we failing so much there?

It seems that many of the very top guys in the nation would rather wrestle at places like Ohio State, let alone PSU, over Iowa.

I’m not looking to throw anyone under the bus. I firmly believe Iowa can get back on top and it’s not going to take a miracle.

But you certainly can’t keep the status quo and say, “we just gotta work a little harder” or “gotta find a way to score more points”.

Something big has got to give.

We gotta start cheating in the "weight room" like Penn State guys do.

Too many guys who look small, thin compared to the top guys at respective weights.

 

[eb05]

iowa needs to aggressively recruit the top echelon guys regardless of who is on the roster. example, psu has a guy like nevills who is a solid r12/low aa type guy and they go out and get kerk.

nothing against some of our guys because they are amazing wrestlers but we have plenty of r12-r16 types and rarely is anyone brought in to replace them. either we act high and mighty with our moral 2nd place victory or the coaches go out and try to bring in better guys. i know it puts a bad taste in people’s mouth but it’s reality at this point.

 

[NutZac]

$$$$$$

 

[BBptg5]

Think like a top level recruit what factors into your decision? Here are my bullets in no particular order and probably incomplete.

1. Relationships with coaches very personal
2. Facilities new wrestling building
3. Academics do they have my major? Fast track to a good career with an alumnis firm?
4. Program position will I win a team title?
5. Location how close to home?
6. Environment cha arena vs split with a gymnastics meet at Maryland?
7. Nil money
8. Culture? Do I get along with the rest of the team?

Where are weak? Where are we strong? What's out of our control?

coaching philosophy…..Tom is all about being more physical, cares not as much for technique or strategy. why the more athletic and quicker high school wrestlers go elsewhere. would be nice if our coaching staff cared about what other wrestlers are good at and what they do to negate our wrestlers but tom only cares about us doing what we do…which isn’t woking all that well.

 

[Kale_yeah]

More portal and NIL, seem you guys can target guys who already good college wrestlers. Back handed complement but it's true.

 

[EPC FAN]

We gotta start cheating in the "weight room" like Penn State guys do.

Too many guys who look small, thin compared to the top guys at respective weights.

How does Penn State cheat in the weight room? Please explain.

 

[Redm18]

coaching philosophy…..Tom is all about being more physical, care not as much for technique or strategy. why the more athletic and quicker high school wrestlers go elsewhere. would be nice if our coaching staff cared about what other wrestlers are good at and what they do to negate our wrestlers but tom only care about us doing what we do…which isn’t woking all that well.

Yeah the whole program is a failure.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

How does Penn State cheat in the weight room? Please explain.

Come on now......

 

[bourbon n blues]

I hate to say it and I will get flack for it but the current run by PSU under Cael is just like the run Iowa had under Dan Gable. A vast majority of the top recruits want to go to PSU because when they are there and they crack the lineup there is a very good chance they will do well at Nationals and that the team will most likely win national championships.

I don’t think there are any better coaches out there than Tom and Terry to challenge PSU. THey bleed black and gold and if a light weight wrestler wants to win a championship I would think Iowa would have to be at the top of the list.

Agreed , at certain points people were asking this question about OSU and Iowa. The difference is now it's happening in the best wrestling area in the country.
I'm not trolling but in a recegtcstory on how Sanderson landed at PSU. Supposedly Coach Brands said it was going to be be a pretty big deal .

How does Penn State cheat in the weight room? Please explain.

They bounce their benches and squat high.

 

[BBptg5]

Yeah the whole program is a failure.

yeah we are an exceptional offensive wrestling team. Take away Spencer and Real and one takedown is a huge offensive performance. if/when we do take a shot we seldom can finish it.

 

[bnicolls]

I’m not here to bag on our team. Those guys are Hawks through and through and they put it on the line every time they stepped in the circle.

But we have circled the Wagons for the last decade and PSU having our number for 5 out of every 6 years is not cutting the mustard.

I don’t for one second think the sport has passed TnT by. I think they are world class, but something has to change.
I certainly know it’s better here than places like Oklahoma State right now. I don’t envy them with what to do with John Smith.

It seems every year we fool ourselves thinking that “if we catch a break here” or “if they slip up there” we have a SHOT.

It’s time to take a real hard look at what is going on and fix the problem. And no, I don’t think filling the line up with transfers is the answer.
Plug a guy in… sure. But when you are praying for 4-5 guys to save the program, you are asking for trouble.

I think the easy answer is recruiting, but why are we failing so much there?

It seems that many of the very top guys in the nation would rather wrestle at places like Ohio State, let alone PSU, over Iowa.

I’m not looking to throw anyone under the bus. I firmly believe Iowa can get back on top and it’s not going to take a miracle.

But you certainly can’t keep the status quo and say, “we just gotta work a little harder” or “gotta find a way to score more points”.

Something big has got to give.

You do realize we were the best team in 2020

Then proved it in 2021

Too injured last year to win it

This is essentially a re-load year, and we're likley 2nd

We have a great incoming class next fall, and likely will get 1 or 2 Woods/ADS/Eireman/etc like transfers which will allow us to compete for a Title. What's so bad about all that?

 

[Wahawk56]

Iowa reminds me of that game of thrones episode where Bronn is Tyrian's champion for the trial by combat. When Bronn wins, he's accused of fighting without honor.
He replies, "no, but he did" to the guy he just killed. Iowa isn't Bronn that's for sure and they were thrown into the moon door.

 

[bourbon n blues]

I hate to say it and I will get flack for it but the current run by PSU under Cael is just like the run Iowa had under Dan Gable. A vast majority of the top recruits want to go to PSU because when they are there and they crack the lineup there is a very good chance they will do well at Nationals and that the team will most likely win national championships.

I don’t think there are any better coaches out there than Tom and Terry to challenge PSU. THey bleed black and gold and if a light weight wrestler wants to win a championship I would think Iowa would have to be at the top of the list.

Here's the clip :

What Penn State and Iowa State administrators couldn’t have fully grasped in 2009 was the seismic shift that would unfold in college wrestling. Before the hiring was announced, Iowa wrestling coach Tom Brands stood in front of Hawkeyes supporters and cautioned that news was coming that would shake up the sport. He wouldn’t say what exactly, but wrestling’s blue bloods were on notice.

Best thing to do is keep grinding .

 

[ArkieHawk]

My theory, which is 100% anecdotal, and I don’t have time to crunch the data and prove it, but my gut has always been: Winning 125-157 is a “red ocean strategy” winning 165-HWT is a “blue ocean” strategy.

Wrestling by its nature is a sport that favors smaller athletes. The lower the weight class, the deeper the pool of outstanding wrestlers/athletes who remain in the sport in college. The higher the weight class, the more diluted the pool of outstanding athletes because of cross-competition with “marquee” sports like basketball and football that draw talent whose size and weights are >165.

Very simply, Cael has focused first on locking up the best generational talent >165. It’s his wheel house given his own size, but the delta in talent between a 184 phenom and the field is (in an average year) going to be greater than a 141 phenom and the field simply because there should be fewer “blue chip” 184’s than 141’s. Therefore, the potential for bonus should be greater from top talent in the “blue ocean” weight classes and the potential for upsets less.

In contrast, Iowa is “lightweight U.” That is TNT’s wheelhouse and there is something to be said for “do what you do best.” However, the lighter weights are going to be a constant bloodbath with greater parity, which means higher probability for upsets and less potential for bonus the further you move along in the bracket. Perhaps this is why it feels like we are often in tight, cagy, matches that feel closer than they should be, and it feels like guys simply roll over for PSU.

Yes, PSU has had occasional success at lower weights (Megaludis, RBY, etc.) but consistent with this theory, PSU’s “blue chip” lightweights have had a mixed bag of results. Where they have always had a monopoly on top-tier talent is in the upper weight and those wrestlers pour on the bonus points. Iowa has a monopoly in lightweight talent, which has nonetheless struggled to pour on the bonus points in the tournament at the same rate (excluding Spencer Lee, obviously). Where we have failed is our “blue chip” upper weights have had a mixed bag of results — whatever those reasons may be.

I might be wrong on these premises. It’s just a gut theory. However, Iowa has dominated 125-149 under Brands (with bright moments at 157/165). PSU has dominated 157-197 (with bright moments at HWT) in that same period and won more NCAA championships. We need a strategy to break-in to 157-197. Kueter is a good start. This ends my TED talk.

 

[NeedMoreIronside]

Pretty simple... we got an absolute stud coming in next year...hint hint... he likes snakes. His cousin who happens to be a freak show should be on staff this time next year. Follow that up with nolf; spend the cash and we will be right there with anyone in the country

 

[nitlion6]

Think like a top level recruit what factors into your decision? Here are my bullets in no particular order and probably incomplete.

1. Relationships with coaches very personal
2. Facilities new wrestling building
3. Academics do they have my major? Fast track to a good career with an alumnis firm?
4. Program position will I win a team title?
5. Location how close to home?
6. Environment cha arena vs split with a gymnastics meet at Maryland?
7. Nil money
8. Culture? Do I get along with the rest of the team?

Where are weak? Where are we strong? What's out of our control?

One very important consideration you missed as far as a recruit is concerned. Where do I go if I want to win championships? The answer is Penn State.
If championships are secondary, but NIL money is significant. Hell then it's Ohio State.
Iowa has 15,000 crazy, loud folks crammed into CHA for home meets and a glorious history. Sell what you have.

 

[NeedMoreIronside]

Or iowa city, which happened just 24 onths ago. Don't think we are as far off as some believe from winning year after year again. Build the facility, revamp the coaching staff, dominate again

 

[Hawk_82]

I think our coaches put too much emphasis on being tough, but not enough on health. Iowa seems to always have more injuries than psu. This can't be just a coincidence.

 

[Kuch96]

You do realize we were the best team in 2020

Then proved it in 2021

Too injured last year to win it

This is essentially a re-load year, and we're likley 2nd

We have a great incoming class next fall, and likely will get 1 or 2 Woods/ADS/Eireman/etc like transfers which will allow us to compete for a Title. What's so bad about all that?

I've seen you say this before Please define a reload year? I think the youngest person on the team is 22 years old. And there are several guys on the current roster who are 24. I would think a reload would mean a bunch of freshmen or sophomores? Please explain...

 

[A Fist Full of Hawkeyes]

I've seen you say this before Please define a reload year? I think the youngest person on the team is 22 years old. And there are several guys on the current roster who are 24. I would think a reload would mean a bunch of freshmen or sophomores? Please explain...

Reload means graduating 4 former all Americans and inserting fresh faces. Age isn't a factor.
Replacing Eierman, Young, Marinelli, and Kemerer is the exact definition of a "reload".

Lesson over.

 

[Lambertt]

Come on now......

I don’t know why. Explain it to everyone.

 

[Aardvark86]

My theory, which is 100% anecdotal, and I don’t have time to crunch the data and prove it, but my gut has always been: Winning 125-157 is a “red ocean strategy” winning 165-HWT is a “blue ocean” strategy.

Wrestling by its nature is a sport that favors smaller athletes. The lower the weight class, the deeper the pool of outstanding wrestlers/athletes who remain in the sport in college. The higher the weight class, the more diluted the pool of outstanding athletes because of cross-competition with “marquee” sports like basketball and football that draw talent whose size and weights are >165.

Very simply, Cael has focused first on locking up the best generational talent >165. It’s his wheel house given his own size, but the delta in talent between a 184 phenom and the field is (in an average year) going to be greater than a 141 phenom and the field simply because there should be fewer “blue chip” 184’s than 141’s. Therefore, the potential for bonus should be greater from top talent in the “blue ocean” weight classes and the potential for upsets less.

In contrast, Iowa is “lightweight U.” That is TNT’s wheelhouse and there is something to be said for “do what you do best.” However, the lighter weights are going to be a constant bloodbath with greater parity, which means higher probability for upsets and less potential for bonus the further you move along in the bracket. Perhaps this is why it feels like we are often in tight, cagy, matches that feel closer than they should be, and it feels like guys simply roll over for PSU.

Yes, PSU has had occasional success at lower weights (Megaludis, RBY, etc.) but consistent with this theory, PSU’s “blue chip” lightweights have had a mixed bag of results. Where they have always had a monopoly on top-tier talent is in the upper weight and those wrestlers pour on the bonus points. Iowa has a monopoly in lightweight talent, which has nonetheless struggled to pour on the bonus points in the tournament at the same rate (excluding Spencer Lee, obviously). Where we have failed is our “blue chip” upper weights have had a mixed bag of results — whatever those reasons may be.

I might be wrong on these premises. It’s just a gut theory. However, Iowa has dominated 125-149 under Brands (with bright moments at 157/165). PSU has dominated 157-197 (with bright moments at HWT) in that same period and won more NCAA championships. We need a strategy to break-in to 157-197. Kueter is a good start. This ends my TED talk.

Interesting theory though anecdotally 165 and 197 run may contrary this year.

 

[MVPFAN]

coaching philosophy…..Tom is all about being more physical, cares not as much for technique or strategy. why the more athletic and quicker high school wrestlers go elsewhere. would be nice if our coaching staff cared about what other wrestlers are good at and what they do to negate our wrestlers but tom only cares about us doing what we do…which isn’t woking all that well.

Hand fighting and holding position is not considered sexy as Ferentz would say. There is some truth to this. TNT excelled at hand fighting and short offense. Yes they are important skills to have but too many of our guys seem to evolve into carbon copies of the same thing. Brands talks incessantly about scoring points but most of our guys are playing small ball vs hitting home runs.

Like it or not PSU are more mentally and physically prepared to actually score big points. Year after year they have guys hit big moves in big matches, it's no accident. It's coached and practiced to take it if it's there and execution of those types of moves is practiced. Their guys wrestle to win vs not to lose. Their guys wrestle without fear. They have a full bag of tools and are not afraid to use them. They are generally well trained in what to do in any positions they encounter and their individual match planning is next level.

Carl is a smart guy, they don't just train hard, they train smart too. They get top recruits, and they are smart about which of those they get. They pick guys who have next level desire to win and 110% buy in, no drama or ego problems there. They recruit guys who are above average athletes, usually longer frame. He has certain characteristics he has identified in who he recruits and it works out very well for him. When guy after guy steps up and performs it's not a fluke. Their guys never give up in positions, you have to take it from them if you want to come out on top.

Other teams copied what Gable was doing to close the gap on Iowa. Carl is the new Gable. We better start doing our homework if we plan on closing the gap. We better figure out how to be smarter too. It starts with recruiting at as close to their level as we can get, this will require TNT to make recruiting just as big of a priority as coaching in the room. If they don't want to put that kind of effort into it then a change should be made. Recruiting needs to have a plan, guys all over the country need to be evaluated, favorites identified and properly pursued. If than means attending big tournaments and schmoozing recruits so be it. Too many of our recruits seem to be recruits of convenience. You can't coach plow horses to win the Kentucky derby. Once we have the correct horses we need to train them to run free and be champions.

 

[bdcolt45er]

A big part of this was a money. 4 or 5 years ago someone got the tax records for wrestling clubs. PSU had 8 times as much money as the Hawkeye Wrestling Club. That is a huge gap which allows you to compensate coaches and more importantly athletes at a completely different level. Competing as a freestyle wrestler is not lucrative, which means that even a little bit of increased compensation can make a big difference. These guys need the money for their families. Then you get a snowball effect. Athletes recruit athletes and in this sport there is a steep decline from the top.

The impression I get is that Iowa has closed this funding gap but they are still quite a bit behind. NIL may be something that Iowa could utilize to close the gap. For years we have had guys mostly coming from working class families on partial scholarship.

I would like to see more strategy and am curious about our injury issues. Also in general it seems like our guys are less bulky than our competitors. I wonder if some of our weight selection is just wrong. I think some of our guys should be building up a weight rather than cutting.

 

[bourbon n blues]

My theory, which is 100% anecdotal, and I don’t have time to crunch the data and prove it, but my gut has always been: Winning 125-157 is a “red ocean strategy” winning 165-HWT is a “blue ocean” strategy.

Wrestling by its nature is a sport that favors smaller athletes. The lower the weight class, the deeper the pool of outstanding wrestlers/athletes who remain in the sport in college. The higher the weight class, the more diluted the pool of outstanding athletes because of cross-competition with “marquee” sports like basketball and football that draw talent whose size and weights are >165.

Very simply, Cael has focused first on locking up the best generational talent >165. It’s his wheel house given his own size, but the delta in talent between a 184 phenom and the field is (in an average year) going to be greater than a 141 phenom and the field simply because there should be fewer “blue chip” 184’s than 141’s. Therefore, the potential for bonus should be greater from top talent in the “blue ocean” weight classes and the potential for upsets less.

In contrast, Iowa is “lightweight U.” That is TNT’s wheelhouse and there is something to be said for “do what you do best.” However, the lighter weights are going to be a constant bloodbath with greater parity, which means higher probability for upsets and less potential for bonus the further you move along in the bracket. Perhaps this is why it feels like we are often in tight, cagy, matches that feel closer than they should be, and it feels like guys simply roll over for PSU.

Yes, PSU has had occasional success at lower weights (Megaludis, RBY, etc.) but consistent with this theory, PSU’s “blue chip” lightweights have had a mixed bag of results. Where they have always had a monopoly on top-tier talent is in the upper weight and those wrestlers pour on the bonus points. Iowa has a monopoly in lightweight talent, which has nonetheless struggled to pour on the bonus points in the tournament at the same rate (excluding Spencer Lee, obviously). Where we have failed is our “blue chip” upper weights have had a mixed bag of results — whatever those reasons may be.

I might be wrong on these premises. It’s just a gut theory. However, Iowa has dominated 125-149 under Brands (with bright moments at 157/165). PSU has dominated 157-197 (with bright moments at HWT) in that same period and won more NCAA championships. We need a strategy to break-in to 157-197. Kueter is a good start. This ends my TED talk.

I'd say this makes a lot of sense . Realistically, what do great athletes at weights 125 to save may be 150 or so get to do? Especially with certain athletic builds?
It's often wrestling or maybe track and field, possibly a little baseball.

 

[bourbon n blues]

Interesting theory though anecdotally 165 and 197 run may contrary this year.

I think it has merit as a piece of the puzzle.

 

[ArkieHawk]

Interesting theory though anecdotally 165 and 197 run may contrary this year.

I don’t disagree on 165. Of course there will be variance in which weight classes are “toughest” in any given year. However, in a world where we have more data on Youth-HS wrestling than ever before, that can be scenario-planned for based on projected future weights of HS/PFP ranks by weight class over time/current line-up.

My point — which it seems like you agree is worth considering — is that not all 10 weight classes are going to have equal depth. If Iowa is your #1 priority to beat, it only takes a quick perusal of our media guide to see that Fullhart, Borschel, and Mocco are our only champions above 165 going back into the late 1990s. Pick the big guys. Brands has shown that regardless of depth, he will double and triple down on being “lightweight U.”

Consistent with strategy, the majority of PSU’s points and finalists are in their sweet spot of 157-HWT (157, 174, 184, HWT). RBY at 133 is the exception, not the rule for them. Facundo at 165 was the overall #5 PFP recruit in this freshman class, so no slouch, and likely to pan-out overtime as the weight clears out. Since PSU didn’t get/chose not to get Ferrari, Dean as a defending #1 at 197 was as good a bet this year as any. Cael, in contrast is tripled down on 157-HWT and has a nice side-bet on 133. Long story short, Cael basically planned around 165 and 197 for this year and is in position to course-correct as the landscape changes over time at those weights.

Meanwhile, Iowa’s core strength is 125 and 141. Murin as a senior at 149 was a must-AA for us to be competitive. Our other top-talent is uncharacteristically at 197 and HWT, BUT, as you say, 197 is an anomaly this year (which should have been foreseeable). And Cassioppi is great but has been surpassed by Kerk and hasn’t closed the gap on Parris. At 174, Brands being an AA is an awesome thing, but it’s hard to say that getting the coach’s son to come to Iowa is part of a strategic shift toward getting elite upper-weight wrestlers. Ironically, the most successful new face in the line-up is at 165 and that isn’t a “win now” weight for either us or PSU.

That leaves Iowa with a strategy of:
Maximize v PSU: 125, 141, and 149.
Neutralize PSU: 165, 197, HWT
Hope for Best: 133, 157, 174, 184 (here again 133 is the exception not the rule).

While their strategy is
Maximize v Iowa: 133, 157, 174, 184
Neutralize Iowa: 165, 197, HWT
Hope for the Best: 125, 141, 149

Their direct strengths are our biggest weaknesses, and they get more points from them.

While Spencer, DeSanto, Lugo (125, 133, 149) were the faces of our 2020-2021 streak of dominance, the X factor for us was the best slate of 157+ Iowa wrestlers since 2010. Young, Marinelli, Kemmerer, Warner, and Cassioppi (157, 165, 174, 197, HWT). As their tournaments went, so did the team’s.

In conclusion, I agree with what you say. I just think that it can be planned for and adjusted for. I’m glad Kuetter and Arnold are joining. I hope we add the coaching/recruiting cachete necessary to compete more intentionally at 165-HWT or we should expect the same results.

 

[anon_0pi0cv8t1ggvb]

My theory, which is 100% anecdotal, and I don’t have time to crunch the data and prove it, but my gut has always been: Winning 125-157 is a “red ocean strategy” winning 165-HWT is a “blue ocean” strategy.

Wrestling by its nature is a sport that favors smaller athletes. The lower the weight class, the deeper the pool of outstanding wrestlers/athletes who remain in the sport in college. The higher the weight class, the more diluted the pool of outstanding athletes because of cross-competition with “marquee” sports like basketball and football that draw talent whose size and weights are >165.

Very simply, Cael has focused first on locking up the best generational talent >165. It’s his wheel house given his own size, but the delta in talent between a 184 phenom and the field is (in an average year) going to be greater than a 141 phenom and the field simply because there should be fewer “blue chip” 184’s than 141’s. Therefore, the potential for bonus should be greater from top talent in the “blue ocean” weight classes and the potential for upsets less.

In contrast, Iowa is “lightweight U.” That is TNT’s wheelhouse and there is something to be said for “do what you do best.” However, the lighter weights are going to be a constant bloodbath with greater parity, which means higher probability for upsets and less potential for bonus the further you move along in the bracket. Perhaps this is why it feels like we are often in tight, cagy, matches that feel closer than they should be, and it feels like guys simply roll over for PSU.

Yes, PSU has had occasional success at lower weights (Megaludis, RBY, etc.) but consistent with this theory, PSU’s “blue chip” lightweights have had a mixed bag of results. Where they have always had a monopoly on top-tier talent is in the upper weight and those wrestlers pour on the bonus points. Iowa has a monopoly in lightweight talent, which has nonetheless struggled to pour on the bonus points in the tournament at the same rate (excluding Spencer Lee, obviously). Where we have failed is our “blue chip” upper weights have had a mixed bag of results — whatever those reasons may be.

I might be wrong on these premises. It’s just a gut theory. However, Iowa has dominated 125-149 under Brands (with bright moments at 157/165). PSU has dominated 157-197 (with bright moments at HWT) in that same period and won more NCAA championships. We need a strategy to break-in to 157-197. Kueter is a good start. This ends my TED talk.

Interesting and compelling take.

 

[Gusaford]

My theory, which is 100% anecdotal, and I don’t have time to crunch the data and prove it, but my gut has always been: Winning 125-157 is a “red ocean strategy” winning 165-HWT is a “blue ocean” strategy.

Wrestling by its nature is a sport that favors smaller athletes. The lower the weight class, the deeper the pool of outstanding wrestlers/athletes who remain in the sport in college. The higher the weight class, the more diluted the pool of outstanding athletes because of cross-competition with “marquee” sports like basketball and football that draw talent whose size and weights are >165.

Very simply, Cael has focused first on locking up the best generational talent >165. It’s his wheel house given his own size, but the delta in talent between a 184 phenom and the field is (in an average year) going to be greater than a 141 phenom and the field simply because there should be fewer “blue chip” 184’s than 141’s. Therefore, the potential for bonus should be greater from top talent in the “blue ocean” weight classes and the potential for upsets less.

In contrast, Iowa is “lightweight U.” That is TNT’s wheelhouse and there is something to be said for “do what you do best.” However, the lighter weights are going to be a constant bloodbath with greater parity, which means higher probability for upsets and less potential for bonus the further you move along in the bracket. Perhaps this is why it feels like we are often in tight, cagy, matches that feel closer than they should be, and it feels like guys simply roll over for PSU.

Yes, PSU has had occasional success at lower weights (Megaludis, RBY, etc.) but consistent with this theory, PSU’s “blue chip” lightweights have had a mixed bag of results. Where they have always had a monopoly on top-tier talent is in the upper weight and those wrestlers pour on the bonus points. Iowa has a monopoly in lightweight talent, which has nonetheless struggled to pour on the bonus points in the tournament at the same rate (excluding Spencer Lee, obviously). Where we have failed is our “blue chip” upper weights have had a mixed bag of results — whatever those reasons may be.

I might be wrong on these premises. It’s just a gut theory. However, Iowa has dominated 125-149 under Brands (with bright moments at 157/165). PSU has dominated 157-197 (with bright moments at HWT) in that same period and won more NCAA championships. We need a strategy to break-in to 157-197. Kueter is a good start. This ends my TED talk.

Good stuff. I hear you that the many of the potentially available wrestlers at the heavier weights will get siphoned off into other sports whereas your average 125-149 pound kid is unlikely to play college football or baseball. But one question is whether the available pool of heavier weight kids is significantly greater to start out with than the available pool of lighter weight kids (e.g., there are more 175 lb guys walking around than 125 lb guys), evening it all out in terms of the relative talent levels among the wrestling weight classes.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

I don’t know why. Explain it to everyone.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

My theory, which is 100% anecdotal, and I don’t have time to crunch the data and prove it, but my gut has always been: Winning 125-157 is a “red ocean strategy” winning 165-HWT is a “blue ocean” strategy.

Wrestling by its nature is a sport that favors smaller athletes. The lower the weight class, the deeper the pool of outstanding wrestlers/athletes who remain in the sport in college. The higher the weight class, the more diluted the pool of outstanding athletes because of cross-competition with “marquee” sports like basketball and football that draw talent whose size and weights are >165.

Very simply, Cael has focused first on locking up the best generational talent >165. It’s his wheel house given his own size, but the delta in talent between a 184 phenom and the field is (in an average year) going to be greater than a 141 phenom and the field simply because there should be fewer “blue chip” 184’s than 141’s. Therefore, the potential for bonus should be greater from top talent in the “blue ocean” weight classes and the potential for upsets less.

In contrast, Iowa is “lightweight U.” That is TNT’s wheelhouse and there is something to be said for “do what you do best.” However, the lighter weights are going to be a constant bloodbath with greater parity, which means higher probability for upsets and less potential for bonus the further you move along in the bracket. Perhaps this is why it feels like we are often in tight, cagy, matches that feel closer than they should be, and it feels like guys simply roll over for PSU.

Yes, PSU has had occasional success at lower weights (Megaludis, RBY, etc.) but consistent with this theory, PSU’s “blue chip” lightweights have had a mixed bag of results. Where they have always had a monopoly on top-tier talent is in the upper weight and those wrestlers pour on the bonus points. Iowa has a monopoly in lightweight talent, which has nonetheless struggled to pour on the bonus points in the tournament at the same rate (excluding Spencer Lee, obviously). Where we have failed is our “blue chip” upper weights have had a mixed bag of results — whatever those reasons may be.

I might be wrong on these premises. It’s just a gut theory. However, Iowa has dominated 125-149 under Brands (with bright moments at 157/165). PSU has dominated 157-197 (with bright moments at HWT) in that same period and won more NCAA championships. We need a strategy to break-in to 157-197. Kueter is a good start. This ends my TED talk.

I approve of your theory becoming scientific law.

Now we just need to convince the higher weight gullible, highly impressionable teenage top recruits to tell Carl and Penn State to go f*** themselves and come to Iowa so we can win a national championship!!!

 

[OldHawkFan]

I don’t disagree on 165. Of course there will be variance in which weight classes are “toughest” in any given year. However, in a world where we have more data on Youth-HS wrestling than ever before, that can be scenario-planned for based on projected future weights of HS/PFP ranks by weight class over time/current line-up.

My point — which it seems like you agree is worth considering — is that not all 10 weight classes are going to have equal depth. If Iowa is your #1 priority to beat, it only takes a quick perusal of our media guide to see that Fullhart, Borschel, and Mocco are our only champions above 165 going back into the late 1990s. Pick the big guys. Brands has shown that regardless of depth, he will double and triple down on being “lightweight U.”

Consistent with strategy, the majority of PSU’s points and finalists are in their sweet spot of 157-HWT (157, 174, 184, HWT). RBY at 133 is the exception, not the rule for them. Facundo at 165 was the overall #5 PFP recruit in this freshman class, so no slouch, and likely to pan-out overtime as the weight clears out. Since PSU didn’t get/chose not to get Ferrari, Dean as a defending #1 at 197 was as good a bet this year as any. Cael, in contrast is tripled down on 157-HWT and has a nice side-bet on 133. Long story short, Cael basically planned around 165 and 197 for this year and is in position to course-correct as the landscape changes over time at those weights.

Meanwhile, Iowa’s core strength is 125 and 141. Murin as a senior at 149 was a must-AA for us to be competitive. Our other top-talent is uncharacteristically at 197 and HWT, BUT, as you say, 197 is an anomaly this year (which should have been foreseeable). And Cassioppi is great but has been surpassed by Kerk and hasn’t closed the gap on Parris. At 174, Brands being an AA is an awesome thing, but it’s hard to say that getting the coach’s son to come to Iowa is part of a strategic shift toward getting elite upper-weight wrestlers. Ironically, the most successful new face in the line-up is at 165 and that isn’t a “win now” weight for either us or PSU.

That leaves Iowa with a strategy of:
Maximize v PSU: 125, 141, and 149.
Neutralize PSU: 165, 197, HWT
Hope for Best: 133, 157, 174, 184 (here again 133 is the exception not the rule).

While their strategy is
Maximize v Iowa: 133, 157, 174, 184
Neutralize Iowa: 165, 197, HWT
Hope for the Best: 125, 141, 149

Their direct strengths are our biggest weaknesses, and they get more points from them.

While Spencer, DeSanto, Lugo (125, 133, 149) were the faces of our 2020-2021 streak of dominance, the X factor for us was the best slate of 157+ Iowa wrestlers since 2010. Young, Marinelli, Kemmerer, Warner, and Cassioppi (157, 165, 174, 197, HWT). As their tournaments went, so did the team’s.

In conclusion, I agree with what you say. I just think that it can be planned for and adjusted for. I’m glad Kuetter and Arnold are joining. I hope we add the coaching/recruiting cachete necessary to compete more intentionally at 165-HWT or we should expect the same results.

Somebody get this guy on the payroll.

Moneyball for wrestling.

Dominate the weights that have the fewest tough wrestlers.

 

[Muscles1989]

Getting the best wrestlers clearly sets psu ahead. Change in preparation throughout the season. It’s no secret the difference in a psu workout and iowas. The days of drilling and grinding are over.

 

[78HKEYE]

$$$$$$

This is unfortunately the answer. Penn State has the top wrestling program in the most fertile recruiting territory with all the top international athletes in the nation. And has the most financial backing. It’s a juggernaut that everyone else just can’t compete with right now. Kinda sucks that the tournament is over on Friday.

 

[thom67]

How does Penn State cheat in the weight room? Please explain.

They cut one leg off for weigh in’s, then reattach it.

 

[grapplefann]

Yeah the whole program is a failure.

Because they end up second? Hardly. It's not what we want, but it's not failure.

 

[grapplefann]

This is unfortunately the answer. Penn State has the top wrestling program in the most fertile recruiting territory with all the top international athletes in the nation. And has the most financial backing. It’s a juggernaut that everyone else just can’t compete with right now. Kinda sucks that the tournament is over on Friday.

This. It's also better recruiting of top-5 guys, and winning the close ones. How many crucial matches did we drop by 1 or 2 points? And not just to PSU.