Absolutely true. If we wrestle like we did last night after Spencer’s loss and today, even with the losses, I have no complaints. Love the guys on our team and the effort they showed.
What is the answer?
- Thread starter OldHawkFan
- Start date
The heavy vs. lightweight theory makes a lot of sense. I've always thought the following:
1. For years, Iowa guys look scrawny and lean compared to other wrestlers. I don't know if other programs aren't cutting as much and people are wrestling at a more natural weight, but there has to be some health science at this point to give the best answer. I have to imagine that deep cuts to maintain weight mess up glycogen storage in the liver, electrolyte balances, etc. I have no idea how the current team trains, but they seemed burned out at the end of the season and peak early/injury prone.
2. Gable success is Iowa's own downfall. He wrote the code for success in terms of tenacity, rraining, aggressiveness, etc. All his disciples took his advantage and worked in into their program.
3. The Iowa style is dead- Until reffing changes, the game is a defensive one. TnT talk about aggressiveness but the Ironsides, Macilravys, Mcdonoughs, Lees can't fill an entire roster. Somehow their coaching isn't translating into offensive points. You can't handfight, push people around, and out condition everyone anymore (see #2 above). Seems to be a disconnect.
1. For years, Iowa guys look scrawny and lean compared to other wrestlers. I don't know if other programs aren't cutting as much and people are wrestling at a more natural weight, but there has to be some health science at this point to give the best answer. I have to imagine that deep cuts to maintain weight mess up glycogen storage in the liver, electrolyte balances, etc. I have no idea how the current team trains, but they seemed burned out at the end of the season and peak early/injury prone.
2. Gable success is Iowa's own downfall. He wrote the code for success in terms of tenacity, rraining, aggressiveness, etc. All his disciples took his advantage and worked in into their program.
3. The Iowa style is dead- Until reffing changes, the game is a defensive one. TnT talk about aggressiveness but the Ironsides, Macilravys, Mcdonoughs, Lees can't fill an entire roster. Somehow their coaching isn't translating into offensive points. You can't handfight, push people around, and out condition everyone anymore (see #2 above). Seems to be a disconnect.
Cut me deep on #3. Hard to argue against it though.
Your theory is off. Since Cael has started coaching PSU Individual Championships in lighter weights.
25-1
33-2. Could be 3 tonight
41-2
49-4
We won’t even look at 57 and above that’s ugly. Iowa only clearly outpaces PSU at 25 since Cael arrived. They are not some lightweight gods at coaching just 125. How many does Iowa have above 125 in the supposed lighter weights since Cael arrived? I think you’re giving your light weight coaching way too much credit besides 125. There is no way in hell you can say Brands has dominated 49 and under with the exception of 125.
Changes in the game and Gable's success/coaching tree bred parity into wrestling. Great for the sport but bad for Iowa.
I’d be up for finding out what they do in Dagestan….minus the gassing issues.
number three is 100% right on! number 2 under Gable has one significant difference. Gable’s wrestlers were always looking to score. offensive technique and philosophy was much different than Brand’s coached wrestlers..
PSU looks to score in all positions. Besides Spencer and Real our guys look to hand fight, secure a TD via a single leg usually then try and get riding time and then hopefully hang on for the 1 to 2 point win depending on if they get riding time.
The answer is, how do we keep pace in the recruiting war? Are we training properly/as best as possible?
These are really the only TWO things you can point at when trying to figure out how to take F*** st down.
DISCLAIMER: You will not see this often!!!
I do want to give them and the great Krailure some credit. Several of their newer guys have wrestled above what I would have guessed and also had some nice comeback victories. That being said, once again, the line up is blue chip recruits at every weight.
You can see how it works pretty clearly. Keep bring in top guys, plug them in, see how they do? If not a top guy, bring in the next top kid. I do not want to bash on their 165 kid falco from the replacements. He is a pretty good wrestler. To stay in their line up though, he will have to up is game! 125 has been a black hole for them to point to another example, but it is not from lack of trying. It is somewhat remarkable what they have brought in over the last 6-8 years! None have panned out but you can bet your ass another will be brought in!
So very clearly as has been pointed out $$$$ and the ability to use it like they do to "get/buy" mostly who they want. Is what we(and every other team) has to figure out!
The 2nd answer may be simpler and/or more complex? Are we over training? Are the wrestlers going too hard for too long during the year? Are we cycling workouts in and out of season? I look at F*** st "big 3 going for 3" and they all have remained mostly healthy. If you look at our guys at those 3 weights. Desanto/now teske 33, KemDawg/ now Brands 74, and Assad 84. EVERY guy has been banged up significantly more then the counter part!
I posted in another thread about the new facility a question about is it going to be "flash" or state of the art? Will it have top prehab/rehab facilities? Sauna, steam room, message therapy etc....
So stupid to call for the coaches heads like always. The team wrestled TUFF and performed pretty well/better then expected maybe. OBVIOUSLY LEE being hurt KILLS!!! Other than that and maybe PK, I am not sure how much more you could have asked.
These are really the only TWO things you can point at when trying to figure out how to take F*** st down.
DISCLAIMER: You will not see this often!!!
I do want to give them and the great Krailure some credit. Several of their newer guys have wrestled above what I would have guessed and also had some nice comeback victories. That being said, once again, the line up is blue chip recruits at every weight.
You can see how it works pretty clearly. Keep bring in top guys, plug them in, see how they do? If not a top guy, bring in the next top kid. I do not want to bash on their 165 kid falco from the replacements. He is a pretty good wrestler. To stay in their line up though, he will have to up is game! 125 has been a black hole for them to point to another example, but it is not from lack of trying. It is somewhat remarkable what they have brought in over the last 6-8 years! None have panned out but you can bet your ass another will be brought in!
So very clearly as has been pointed out $$$$ and the ability to use it like they do to "get/buy" mostly who they want. Is what we(and every other team) has to figure out!
The 2nd answer may be simpler and/or more complex? Are we over training? Are the wrestlers going too hard for too long during the year? Are we cycling workouts in and out of season? I look at F*** st "big 3 going for 3" and they all have remained mostly healthy. If you look at our guys at those 3 weights. Desanto/now teske 33, KemDawg/ now Brands 74, and Assad 84. EVERY guy has been banged up significantly more then the counter part!
I posted in another thread about the new facility a question about is it going to be "flash" or state of the art? Will it have top prehab/rehab facilities? Sauna, steam room, message therapy etc....
So stupid to call for the coaches heads like always. The team wrestled TUFF and performed pretty well/better then expected maybe. OBVIOUSLY LEE being hurt KILLS!!! Other than that and maybe PK, I am not sure how much more you could have asked.
PSU has had a champ at every weight class under Cael. Brands, Not. Even. Close.
I get what you're saying as they've had considerable success at 165-197 but RBY, Lee and Zain have 8 titles from 133-149. That might outpace our entire number of titles since 2011. Oh and and that Nolf guy was kinda good at 157.
So in Brands’ career at Iowa (which was the timeline I was using), championships at:
125: 5
133: 2
141: 0 (could be 1)
149: 2
So 9, maybe 10. 2020 probably hurt those numbers at 125 and maybe 149. Cael has 9 maybe 10 as well. However, when you consider NCAA finals appearances (which counts for something) under Brands (total career at Iowa):
125: 7
133: 6
141: 3
149: 4
I don’t know Cael’s comparable finalists at these weights but I don’t recall many second place finishes for PSU in general, so I’m guessing fewer. Your point on my over-praising Brands’ lightweight coaching ability may be fair. 9-10 champs in 20 appearances is a lower success rate than Cael’s. At the same time, the number of finals appearances is still a credit to TNT’s resume.
More importantly, it suggests an emphasis and expectation that the lightweights are where Iowa will get the bulk of its NCAA points. It also highlights the un-sustainability of this strategy for Iowa: You have coaches who are apparent lightweight specialists, recruiting top lightweights, to train with other top-flight light weights, and yet have a 50/50 success rate in finals appearances (although a lot of finals appearances). This would actually support my argument that a light-weight-first strategy isn’t going to turn the tide on Cael. Either the Brands can’t get it done for the lightweights, or there is something uniquely difficult about those weight classes. Either way, Cael doesn’t build his team around the first half of the line-up, which tells me something (although he admittedly doesn’t turn his nose up at talent in those weights either as you point out).
I think you said it well when you say it gets ugly above 157. I agree. The data is clear on that point. While PSU has definitely benefitted from picking up guys like Megaludis, Zain, and RBY, I personally don’t think of PSU unique competitive difference being the lighter weights. PSU’s unique competitive difference is 157+, and as you have said, “it’s ugly.” And it’s not just ugly v. Iowa, it’s ugly v. everyone. Even schools like OHST, Minnesota, and OKST with very rich traditions in the heavier weights.
So, we are left to ask “why that is” and what to do about it. I doubt Cael is looking to leave PSU. So in lieu of hiring Cael, Iowa is left to change personnel, change strategy, or change both. I don’t know who they would go get that is better than Brands. I think exploring a moneyball approach to recruiting and making the upper-weight “blue ocean” a little redder for PSU has to be explored before parting with TNT.
I believe that starts with recruitment, specifically, which weights are recruited and when. But as long as we keep focusing on the lightweights as “must haves” and treating the upper weight talent as a “nice to haves” I don’t see a change in results. Even more so if you are right and Cael is as good or better than Brands at turning lightweight talent into champions (which I’m not quite ready to concede).
My dream answer:
Coaches: Tom Brands, Terry Brands, David Taylor, J'Den Cox
125: Ayala
133: Teske
141: Woods
149: Chittum
157- Anthony Ferrari
165-Kennedy
174-Brands
184-Transfer
197-AJ Ferrari
Hwt-Cass
Coaches: Tom Brands, Terry Brands, David Taylor, J'Den Cox
125: Ayala
133: Teske
141: Woods
149: Chittum
157- Anthony Ferrari
165-Kennedy
174-Brands
184-Transfer
197-AJ Ferrari
Hwt-Cass
Flip DT with Jason Nolf and this is my dream.
I almost added a David Taylor/Jason Nolf. Either over Morningstar every day of the week.
I figured to get Anthony and Angelo we had to get AJ. And yeah I know there is a thread dedicated to them.
I agree. Not good at making adjustments. Case in point - ADS ve RBY. Just stayed with the same thing every match hoping for a different outcome. It didn't happen. PSU had RBY place an arm behind his back and it stifled ADS. I like Kyle Dake as a possibility.
I'd be curious to hear peoples opinion if they thought TnT had too much overlap in terms of mentality, wrestling style, technique, etc. Both are amazing coaches but I have always wondered if having Tom and a younger, former mid to higher weight class coach would improve the program.
Simple answer is yes. We all don’t think it’s an issue though. This staff had dead weight with Morningstar and Telford.
The results in the middle and upper weights speak for themselves.
I think that lineup would win next year. Although I'd prefer a transfer at 33 over 84 personally.
I think this is the third time I have ever looked at your forum. I was just curious what your base was commenting about Spencer opting not to wrestle today. I'm not a Spencer hater at all. I always support the Pennsylvania kids including Murin in the tournament if it doesn't have consequences against Penn State. I couldn't believe that Lee got beat last night. I watched him lose his last bout in high school and it was history repeating itself.
As for a couple of thoughts about the difference in the 2 programs. Penn State recruits kids that have a different mind set on life than other teams. They for the most part have similar traits as their coach. The highs and lows stay pretty much on an even keel. It's about stability.
What I now see Cael doing is trying to recruit the Eastern part of Pennsylvania (example District 11 Sasso and Labriola territory) and New Jersey including Blair Academy. Iowa pulled some great PA kids from Western PA years ago, but now the depth of the State is more in the East.
The Western PA connection is not as fertile as it was a few years ago.
If Cael lands a couple of the young Eastern PA kids in addition to a few National recruits coming up I think it might be more years of a lot of success.
As for a couple of thoughts about the difference in the 2 programs. Penn State recruits kids that have a different mind set on life than other teams. They for the most part have similar traits as their coach. The highs and lows stay pretty much on an even keel. It's about stability.
What I now see Cael doing is trying to recruit the Eastern part of Pennsylvania (example District 11 Sasso and Labriola territory) and New Jersey including Blair Academy. Iowa pulled some great PA kids from Western PA years ago, but now the depth of the State is more in the East.
The Western PA connection is not as fertile as it was a few years ago.
If Cael lands a couple of the young Eastern PA kids in addition to a few National recruits coming up I think it might be more years of a lot of success.
I don't know the answer, but the question is not "How do we beat Penn State?" Forget about Penn State.
The question is, "What are we going to do differently over the next 10 years vs. the past 10 years to consistently field a team that can score 100+ points at NCAAs?"
We've only done it twice in the past 10 years.
That's a huge fail. And it has nothing to do with anything Penn State did or didn't do.
Sorry to sound negative--as noted in another thread, I'm pro-Brands, but we've gotta get our own house in order and complain less about the neighbors.
The question is, "What are we going to do differently over the next 10 years vs. the past 10 years to consistently field a team that can score 100+ points at NCAAs?"
We've only done it twice in the past 10 years.
That's a huge fail. And it has nothing to do with anything Penn State did or didn't do.
Sorry to sound negative--as noted in another thread, I'm pro-Brands, but we've gotta get our own house in order and complain less about the neighbors.
Nothing that you say is wrong.
However, when you break down NCAA points by weight, Iowa out scores PSU 620.5 to 495.5 for weights 125-157 between 2022 and 2012 (all the data I could find on TrackWrestling). Over that same period 65% of Iowa’s NCAA points came from 125-157. The lower weights have been Iowa’s core strength under Brands, and this time frame doesn’t even include the Metcalf years. Iowa has collectively outscored PSU in these weights in 8/10 tournaments I have data for. The fact is, Iowa has put more points on the board than PSU in the lower weights over the last decade. BUT, That particular pissing contest doesn’t interest me. What does interest me is whether that is the right strategy for winning championships, and if not, why not?
The answer to the first part of that question is obviously no, so let’s take a look at how bad it really is: At 165-HWT, PSU has outscored Iowa 743.5 to 329.5 at NCAA’s. PSU has been a more balanced team, as you say, but still, 60% of their NCAA tournament points have come from 165-HWT in the last decade. If you look at the avg points scored per wrestler in each weight class, 125 is their team low and every weight gets slightly better, peaking at 174 and 184 and sloping down again.
In my original post I suggested that Cael has focused on dominating 157-197. this plays out in the data: Head to head in 157 to 197, PSU has outscored Iowa 783.5 to 352 — a slightly wider gap than the 125-157/165-HWT break. Further, the 5 most valuable weights (avg. points/tournament) for PSU 2012-2022 have been 174 (20.1 pts), 184 (17.35 pts), 165 (14.5 pts), 157 (12.5), 197 (13.9). You are right to correct me on Zain since 149 (11.8 pts) turned out to be better than HWT. (8.5pts).However, the non-Zain years were pretty bleak at that weight.
All that said, I feel justified in my claim that Iowa’s strategic focus is to prioritize winning in the lighter weights, and PSU’s strategy is to prioritize winning in the heavier weights as this is reflected in the data over the last decade. What concerns me most is that PSU’s upperweights have outscored Iowa’s lower weights 743.5 to 620.5 over 10 years. PSU’s heavy’s have outscored Iowa’s lights in 7/10 seasons as well. In short, we can’t rely on our lightweights to beat Penn State. It alone has not proven to be a success model. The one year we won was the most balanced of the decade —split of points 58% 125-157, 42% 165-285. The others are more like 66-75% of our points coming from 125-157.
While $, coaches, recruiting philosophy, facilities, injuries, bad luck, etc. may be the cause of Iowa’s strategy not working, I’m concerned it’s something bigger. I’m concerned that there is a meaningful insight we have missed — namely that there are more points available and more upside to “blue chip” upper weight recruits and that the lower weights are a bloody red ocean. This small set of data I have reviewed lends some plausibility to my theory. Only a full database of longitudinal NCAA performance data combined with recruiting data could confirm this. I hope the UI athletic department has that data and has an objective data scientist to review it and provide good insights.
So, as far as what Iowa should do next: If I’m right, Iowa needs to overhaul its recruiting priorities and start out-playing Cael at moneyball (which I do not claim will be easy under the current circumstances). If I’m wrong, Iowa still has to step up recruitment and development of its upper weights by an order of >2x in order to surpass PSU while not giving much ground in the lower weights.
I think our incoming recruitment class is a step in the right direction. I look forward to more bold moves from TNT to close the upper weight gap in the future.
TL;DR: You make good points, but I’m still 83% sure PSU has a big strategic advantage by focusing on the upper weights that Iowa must emulate/overcome to get back on top.
Recruiting PHILOSOPHY is the biggest issue, imo.
Prepping for individual matches may be another. It seems like a lot of guys have more success against Hawks the second time around than I’d like to see.
Not sure why people think Taylor, Dake or Nolf would come here to coach/Train
I doubt Jaybo can even deadlift 500 lbs. No thanks.
THIS 1000%.
If you don’t think Vito scouted RBY for the finals, you don’t know wrestling.
He absolutely picked him a apart.
Knew how stop his low level by tying up his wrists, knew when to counter-shot off RBY’s fakes, knew to get to the double leg and finish clean to avoid his scrambles.
Spencer admitted early in the season that he watches zero film. He may not have to but the other 99.9% need to.
I get the principal of “worry about me and not my opponent” but COACHES should scout the sh!t out of wrestlers at this level.
Like, if Spencer is REALLY hurt and the knees and conditioning are an issue…. CHOOSE TOP!!!
Or Putting Nelson under Lewis was NOT a good idea. How about low level attacks on a guy that is freakishly strong, but is limping on the mat and has a triple knee pad?!
Wrestling smart or to your strengths or capitalizing on an opponents weaknesses is smart. You have to adjust to the times.
I've avoided this shit show of a board (because of the PSU losers) until now so I'll give my 2 cents. Literally knowing 1/4 of the team and their parents because my kid wrestled with them growing up and in clubs here's my take...
Sloan might be in play
All the kid's love T&T, they will go to war for them. Not mentioning the other coaches.
We need to look at Cade Devos at 184. Obviously an Iowa kid and graduating with a pharmacy degree from SDSU, last time I checked Iowa also has a great program and he can get his doctorate of pharmacy at Iowa since they also have a great school for that.
Drake isn't going anywhere, but probably not a career 125.
We're in the mix with Davino and Lilledahl.
Have to make sure Chittum stays in IC, not saying he's leaving, but he's wrecking guys in the room.
Don't write off Riggins, he'll grow nicely into his long frame and will make big time noise before he's done.
Same with Block. He's well liked and respected by the next generation of guy's in the room and expect big things from him.
Gabe will be a revelation for the program. Big personality and the skills to match. He's like a Penn State guy, glad he's a Hawk!
The staff has heard us and has listened, hopefully Gabe's cousin joins the HWC.
Keuter is not Jack Campbell and won't be. Hope he wrestles during his eligibility because he could be a multiple time champ if he can get to and maintain 245 to 255. Obviously we all know how good he is and could be. I just don't think he's a first day NFL pick but wouldn't bet against him. Iowa wrestling fans would prefer he sticks with wrestling, right?
The sky is not falling, the Brand's are far from perfect but the kid's in the room love them. The university, and people that matter will always want the program to be the best. Take a deep breath and relax. Iowa is isn't going anywhere and will never be happy with 2nd place!
Sloan might be in play
All the kid's love T&T, they will go to war for them. Not mentioning the other coaches.
We need to look at Cade Devos at 184. Obviously an Iowa kid and graduating with a pharmacy degree from SDSU, last time I checked Iowa also has a great program and he can get his doctorate of pharmacy at Iowa since they also have a great school for that.
Drake isn't going anywhere, but probably not a career 125.
We're in the mix with Davino and Lilledahl.
Have to make sure Chittum stays in IC, not saying he's leaving, but he's wrecking guys in the room.
Don't write off Riggins, he'll grow nicely into his long frame and will make big time noise before he's done.
Same with Block. He's well liked and respected by the next generation of guy's in the room and expect big things from him.
Gabe will be a revelation for the program. Big personality and the skills to match. He's like a Penn State guy, glad he's a Hawk!
The staff has heard us and has listened, hopefully Gabe's cousin joins the HWC.
Keuter is not Jack Campbell and won't be. Hope he wrestles during his eligibility because he could be a multiple time champ if he can get to and maintain 245 to 255. Obviously we all know how good he is and could be. I just don't think he's a first day NFL pick but wouldn't bet against him. Iowa wrestling fans would prefer he sticks with wrestling, right?
The sky is not falling, the Brand's are far from perfect but the kid's in the room love them. The university, and people that matter will always want the program to be the best. Take a deep breath and relax. Iowa is isn't going anywhere and will never be happy with 2nd place!
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Yes, the we only worry about what we do bullshit needs to go out the window. Frankly that philosophy is lazy and ignorant coaching. If it isn't true then quit saying it in interviews because it sounds like macho silliness.
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Did he really say that? I know it's a movie but the whole plot of Vision Quest was a guy gunning for the best ever. I've see many huge upsets in my life across sports and they all scouted their big opponent then worked their asses off with their plan.
The biggest I can recall was the US hockey team in 1980. They trained their asses off to beat the Russians . They also had a team specifically put together to beat the Russian. None of it was by chance .
The toughest thing is to be the absolute best and win by out muscling the guy and winning easy. You're never challenged . And everyone is beatable. They all have weak spots, most aren't talented enough to exploit the flaws. Until someone is.
Something I think needs to be discussed concerning wearing out opponents. Iowa has the history of being the best in shape team in the country but the field has caught up since the gable era. The time tested strategy of heavy head/hands defense and snap downs while pressing forward is not going to wear guys out anymore. The wrestlers need to be creating openings and engaged in scoring sequences to tire people out. The max murin types are good guys to root for, but you need more firepower if your goal is to win team titles.
