Who SHOULD be in the 4th spot? Who WILL be in the fourth spot? If you disagree with the 3 lock teams in subject, who else will be in there?
LSU, OSU, Clemson and...
LSU, OSU, Clemson and...
Who will be the 4th playoff team? (Assuming LSU/ OSU/ Clemson are locks)
- Thread starter FAUlty Gator
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It will be like 2011. The push will be that what really matters it the quality of your loss. Doesnt matter who you beat. Whatever argument fits to get Alabama in. Probably hear some about them passing the eye test, too.
It could be Georgia but, LSU or Georgia will lose the SEC Championship and waltzing in will be Alabama.
1. Oregon.......assuming they win out and beat a 1-loss Utah team in the Pac-12 championship.
2. UGA if they win out and beat LSU in SEC championship
3. Alabama (lost at home to LSU and only "big" win would be beating a 3-loss Auburn...4-loss after the Bama loss). Scheduling Duke, New Mexico St., Southern Miss and Western Carolina may come back and bite them in the ass. There was no room for error in this schedule. They had to win their tough game and did not. Still, it's Alabama and they have a shot.
2. UGA if they win out and beat LSU in SEC championship
3. Alabama (lost at home to LSU and only "big" win would be beating a 3-loss Auburn...4-loss after the Bama loss). Scheduling Duke, New Mexico St., Southern Miss and Western Carolina may come back and bite them in the ass. There was no room for error in this schedule. They had to win their tough game and did not. Still, it's Alabama and they have a shot.
The winner of the Pac12 or Big12.
I don't think any conference gets a 2nd team unless 2 of the 5 power conferences have 2-loss champions. That may change if OSU/Clemson/LSU suffer a surprising loss, especially prior to the conference championship game. If Michigan beats OSU but OSU still wins the b10 for example, that could throw a wrench into the works. Same if Clemson (which hasn't looked unbeatable this year) were to drop a game.
This is kind of a fun tool to experiment with: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-college-football-predictions/
If you check "win out" for OSU, LSU and Clemson the playoff predictor odds for the 4th spot are as follows:
Oklahoma 31%
Georgia 2%
Oregon 27%
Utah 16%
Baylor 15%
Bama 7%
If you check "win out" for OSU, LSU and Clemson the playoff predictor odds for the 4th spot are as follows:
Oklahoma 31%
Georgia 2%
Oregon 27%
Utah 16%
Baylor 15%
Bama 7%
We need an 8-team playoff. The P5 champions, the highest ranked non-P5 team, and the two highest ranked at-large teams.
It's going to be Minnesota. They're going to win out, win the Big Ten championship, beat Clemson in the semis, and then beat LSU in the finals. They will never lose again, PJ Fleck will become president of the United States, the national anthem will be amended to include the phrase "row the boat", head hair will be outlawed, and we're all going to die in a giant flood.
There’s a lot of football to be payed. Lots!
Hard to hazard a guess. I don’t think any one conference will have more than one rep. Someone has to beat Baylor and Minnesota..I have seen LSU blow up before. It will be an interesting 4 weeks.
Hard to hazard a guess. I don’t think any one conference will have more than one rep. Someone has to beat Baylor and Minnesota..I have seen LSU blow up before. It will be an interesting 4 weeks.
Alabama should not. Time to start hitting team that schedule out of conference trash.
And all our wives will get giant fake tits.
If Clemson loses, they're out. Too weak of a schedule.
You're right. A lot can happen. But Bama is still in the Top 4 of the polls. If they win out, they're in. Unless, Georgia were to beat LSU in the SEC championship game. Then Georgia and LSU would be in.
I don't see the committee taking a 1-loss Oregon or 1-loss Oklahoma over a 1-loss Alabama. The whole point of the CFP is to get the best four teams in. Bama will be viewed as the better of those other two.
If Clemson loses, they're out. Too weak of a schedule.
You're right. A lot can happen. But Bama is still in the Top 4 of the polls. If they win out, they're in. Unless, Georgia were to beat LSU in the SEC championship game. Then Georgia and LSU would be in.
I don't see the committee taking a 1-loss Oregon or 1-loss Oklahoma over a 1-loss Alabama. The whole point of the CFP is to get the best four teams in. Bama will be viewed as the better of those other two.
Even though they are the fourth best time right now they should not be in the playoff. You should not be able to sit out two games and heal then go against teams that had to play an extra two games. A team should not get rewarded for losing. This system is not a playoff so they should quit calling it that. They should call it the BCS bracket play...
You forget it's the committee and the committee and the SEC are owned by ESPN. All things being equal, Bama will get in and it will be bulls hit...
This. Although I would add the non-P5 team must be in the top 15 to get in. Although a couple years into this we'll probably be arguing about why the SEC gets 3 teams every year.
It should be oregon or Oklahoma if they win out. I'm sure they'll find a way to sneak bama in.
Please no Okalahoma. Seen enough of them getting blown out in playoff and CBS games and their loss was ugly.
Overrated as usual. They should be required to play Notre Dame every year in the Poser Bowl.
It's always way too subjective with a committee. They make up new criteria every year. But IMO, no team that didn't even qualify for their conference title game should be eligible for the playoff.
I'd say the winner of Oregon/Utah if they both win out.
I'd say the winner of Oregon/Utah if they both win out.
Oregon lost to what will at the end of the season be a four loss Auburn (losses still coming from Jawja and Bama) and squeaked out a 2 pt win at home over 4-5 Washington State and a 3 pt win over 6-4 Washington. Oregon's best win is over a 6-4 USC team that is so good they're firing their coach at the end of the season. Oregon has only THREE wins over teams with a winning record. (6-4 USC, 6-4 Washington and 5-4 Cal). If ever there was a BS paper tiger it's Oregon which has benefited from a truly terrible PAC cinference.
Bama - it was 46-41 for chrissakes. I am a Big 10/midwest homer but no one else should be in the conversation unless Georgia wins out and beats LSU in the SEC championship game. If that is the case margin of victory will determine whether the 4th team is Bama or LSU.
There’s usually two schools of thought and that’s...
Group 1: “_________ Deserves a shot due to what they’ve done.”
Group 2 “___________ is the best team left regardless of what they’ve done to this point.”
I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
Group 1: “_________ Deserves a shot due to what they’ve done.”
Group 2 “___________ is the best team left regardless of what they’ve done to this point.”
I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
