I'd put Clemson's chances at less than 5%. They aren't AAU, don't do enough research, and they don't bring a huge state population with them. I think their only chance is if they get drug along with another school - like if ND said they'd join if Clemson was admitted with them. (I know that won't happen - just using it as an example)
It's my understanding that when Texas was first considering leaving the Big 12 they reached out to both the BIG and the SEC to guage interest. Texas stated they'd only move if Oklahoma came with them. Supposedly, the BIG said not a chance they'd add Oklahoma due to the quality of the school. So even if Clemson can try to ride someone's coattails - that doesn't mean it would actually work.
I do believe all this eventual consolidation that will inevitably lead us back to.......where we f***ing were in the first place, regionally, but in the form of "divisions"..............will be very VERY gradual at this point, especially when you consider the ink on all these new contracts with these conferences and with the CFP expansion have barely finished drying.
I think the next step for the Big Ten is going to 20 teams at some point.
Florida State will be first in line when they leave. The Big Ten will not risk losing them to the SEC, unless they are absolutely certain that the SEC/Florida has NO desire to add FSU themselves, in which case I could see a reality where they turn a cold shoulder to FSU as well, and let them fade to the Big 12.
But right now, if Clemson is out of the picture, I think the only 4 teams that the Big Ten have in mind are FSU, Miami, UNC and Notre Dame, and that's really all dependent on how quickly all these teams are able to get out of their ACC contracts (and ND is ND).
Florida State- obvious first choice because they're the biggest name right now, most competitive, especially when you're talking the state of Florida. FSU to the B10 would be a huge power play for the conference to combat the SEC on their turf.......with that said,
Miami- I think the B10 would be foolish not to give a long, hard look at Miami if and when they ultimately leave the ACC. FSU unlocks Florida for the B10, but Miami guarantees the South Florida market, which is the biggest market in that state. Also, despite FSU having a slightly higher academic ranking, Miami is an AAU member, while the Seminoles are not.
UNC- this would be the next step, probably down the line, unless a bunch of teams all jumped ship at once. UNC's market has been valued by the B10, and that market value is only continuing to grow. Duke makes for an interesting conversation in that are those two a packaged deal or not. You'd hate to break off the greatest rivalry in CBB so that UNC can play Minnesota and Washington once a year while they collect a check from their football program...............but then again, arrangements can be made so that their rivalry is not entirely lost.
Notre Dane- this one is as obvious as it is inevitable. It doesn't matter that ND and the B10 have any shared dislike for each other. ND will either be forced to join the B10, or fall into the Big 12. They would be an absolute pariah if they joined the SEC, which they would only do out of their own spite for the B10, which isn't a worthwhile reason to join the SEC, but one you could see ND doing anyways if they were absolutely forced to join a conference.
I don't think ND would be willing to swallow their pride and go to the Big 12 with the other misfits, so the only (and best) fit for them is to eventually join the B10, once it becomes clear that they have to join a conference to continue to survive, whether it be by their choice or otherwise..............
