Warning: Just like the title of this thread, this post will be rather lengthy and could get possibly rant-y as I tend to do sometimes. I would also like to point out, that by making this thread I am in NO WAY giving up on the Hawks this season despite how Grim it looks with Stolls injury. This is in response to all the talk of regime change, not having the studs to get it done .. etc.
First off, I will be writing under the assumption that our starting lineup next year will have True Freshman Alex Marinelli slotted in at 165, as I think he is a super talent and his points will absolutely make a difference.
125 Gilman
133 Clark
141 Turk/Carton
149 Kemerer/Sorensen
157 Kemerer/Sorensen
165 Marinelli
174 Meyer
184 Brooks
197 Holloway (If Burak had taken a RS at some point, nobody would come close next year)
285 Stoll
First I want to point out FLO's P4P rankings. As inaccurate as some of you think they are, the guys on there are all pretty deserving. We currently have 3 Hawkeyes in the top 20 college wrestlers in the country p4p right now this season, 2 of them are JR's (Gilman and Clark) one is a SO (Sorensen), compared to Penn States 5. (Megaludis/McIntosh SR's, Nolf/Nickal FR, and Retherford SO). Next year we will each have 3 a piece. Going purely by attrition and the graduating SRs (obviously things could change at B1Gs and NCAAs this year) #8 Clark, #9 Gilman, #12 Sorensen vs #1 Retherford, #4 Nolf, and #13 Nickal. Gilman can take ground on Tomsello who is above him and Nolf can take ground on Imar who is above him. This is a solid core for any championship team. Also: I firmly believe that Kemerer, Marinelli, and Stoll will make their way onto this list during their careers. (Hopefully sooner than later.)
Next i'd like to address the lightweights, Gilman and Clark. We know Gilman will be Top 3 lockdown for next season. Gilman, Tomasello, Dance return of the big 4. I predict a 2nd consecutive Gilman/Tomasello final, a rematch of this seasons NCAA finals. Clark will be preseason #1, Garrett&Brewer are gone, it will be Clark and Richards battling for the title next season. But most of us already know what we have in these weights.
Now i'd like to address the most important part to our team title next season. 149-165. Whoever is at 149, I am penciling in as Top 3. You've got Retherford/Mayes/Tsirtsis coming back. If its Kemerer I'd likely place him at 3 with a chance for finals. He absolutely dominated Sueflohn in their match, then hit a wall which happens to even the best studs sometimes. The same guy who beat Mayes. It will depend on the form Tsirtsis comes back in. Sorensen is a finals lock if he's at 149 next season.
Whoever goes up to 157, I would pencil in at #4 to start behind Imar/Nolf/Smith. 157 Graduates #3 Miller/#4 Gannt/#6 Brascetta/#7 Pack/#11 Smith/#15 Cooper/#18 Welch. If you look at 157 there is nobody below those top 3 i listed, that I don't think either Sorensen or Kemerer wouldn't beat right away. I think they would be right there with Smith for the 3 spot. I also can't think of any other stud redshirts entering this weight from around the country that I haven't accounted for.
At 165, next year graduates half the weight class #1 Dieringer/#4 Rodrigues/#5 Perrotti/#8 Welch/#9 Wilson/#10 Staudenmeyer/#11 weatherman/#16 Fierro/#20 Pickett. The top guys at this weight next season will be I.Jordan/Lewis/Rohskopf/Possibly A. Valencia but I don't think he competed in any folkstyle this season so not sure on his weight. I think Bo Jordan moves up for sure as do many on the ohio state board, he looks like a shell of his former self this season sucking back down for the team. Of the top guys, I think Marinelli is far better on his feet than Lewis/Rohskopf but Valenica is really tough. Lewis is a demon on top, Marinelli's best option against him is to just pick neutral and pick him apart on his feet and build a good lead. I would slot Marinelli in as #3. I think I.Jordan may big brother him as i'm sure they have worked out plenty in the Graham room and camps whenever the Jordans are in town. Marinelli will be to us what Bo Jordan was to tOSU last year during their title run. A stud freshman who will high AA (3rd) and pick up bonus along the way.
We know what we have in Meyer and Brooks, All of the top guys at 174 return next year except #6 Butler/#8 Brunson/#9 Kent/#10 Ottinger/#12 Waters/#17 Barnes. I think Meyer will be in about the same range as I'm hoping for this year 5-8. But, a much needed supporting All american to go with our 6 High AA studs. Brooks I think will fill the same role as Meyer, a much needed supporting All American. But based on what i've seen in his career so far I have a hard time picking him to high AA. I predicted it all season long last year and this year, but he just doesn't get it done. 184 Graduates about half of the studs in this weight class, making it a big easier road to hoe. #2 Brown/#6 Avery/#7 STauffer/#8 Zillmer/#14 Miller/#15 Thomas/#17 Courts/#20 Utley. This weight also adds bigger Z. Valencia who will be in the mix. I think Brooks will slide into 5-7 range next season, although I'm hoping i'm wrong and we see him higher.
Finally we get to our 6th and final high AA STOLLHOUSE. Hwt Graduates a fair amount of Talent with #1 Gwiazdowski/#5 Marsden/#10 Smith/#12 Wessell/#16 Stolfi/#17 Shaw/#18 Cabell. Returning are Walz/Coon/Snyder/Dejournette above Stoll. I think Stoll is better than Dejournette and he will slot in at #4 at this weight next season. I have full confidence he will rebound from this injury just like Telford did from his. If he is not able to AA this season, he will come back strong and be a 3x AA for us just like Big bob. Stoll will be right there competing for the pinnacle his JR/SR seasons.
I have purposefully left out 141 and 197 in my analysis because If i'm being honest, I haven't seen much out of them to indicate significant NCAA points from the two. But, much like Stoll from RS -> RSFR I would not rule out vast improvement.
That leaves us with 8 AA's in my estimation
Gilman Top 2
Clark Top 2
Sorensen Top 2
Kemerer Top 4
Marinelli Top 3
Meyer 5-8
Brooks 5-8
Stollhouse Top 4
This is a winning recipe. Although you all probably know me as an eternal optimistic, do any think that this is not realistic?
First off, I will be writing under the assumption that our starting lineup next year will have True Freshman Alex Marinelli slotted in at 165, as I think he is a super talent and his points will absolutely make a difference.
125 Gilman
133 Clark
141 Turk/Carton
149 Kemerer/Sorensen
157 Kemerer/Sorensen
165 Marinelli
174 Meyer
184 Brooks
197 Holloway (If Burak had taken a RS at some point, nobody would come close next year)
285 Stoll
First I want to point out FLO's P4P rankings. As inaccurate as some of you think they are, the guys on there are all pretty deserving. We currently have 3 Hawkeyes in the top 20 college wrestlers in the country p4p right now this season, 2 of them are JR's (Gilman and Clark) one is a SO (Sorensen), compared to Penn States 5. (Megaludis/McIntosh SR's, Nolf/Nickal FR, and Retherford SO). Next year we will each have 3 a piece. Going purely by attrition and the graduating SRs (obviously things could change at B1Gs and NCAAs this year) #8 Clark, #9 Gilman, #12 Sorensen vs #1 Retherford, #4 Nolf, and #13 Nickal. Gilman can take ground on Tomsello who is above him and Nolf can take ground on Imar who is above him. This is a solid core for any championship team. Also: I firmly believe that Kemerer, Marinelli, and Stoll will make their way onto this list during their careers. (Hopefully sooner than later.)
Next i'd like to address the lightweights, Gilman and Clark. We know Gilman will be Top 3 lockdown for next season. Gilman, Tomasello, Dance return of the big 4. I predict a 2nd consecutive Gilman/Tomasello final, a rematch of this seasons NCAA finals. Clark will be preseason #1, Garrett&Brewer are gone, it will be Clark and Richards battling for the title next season. But most of us already know what we have in these weights.
Now i'd like to address the most important part to our team title next season. 149-165. Whoever is at 149, I am penciling in as Top 3. You've got Retherford/Mayes/Tsirtsis coming back. If its Kemerer I'd likely place him at 3 with a chance for finals. He absolutely dominated Sueflohn in their match, then hit a wall which happens to even the best studs sometimes. The same guy who beat Mayes. It will depend on the form Tsirtsis comes back in. Sorensen is a finals lock if he's at 149 next season.
Whoever goes up to 157, I would pencil in at #4 to start behind Imar/Nolf/Smith. 157 Graduates #3 Miller/#4 Gannt/#6 Brascetta/#7 Pack/#11 Smith/#15 Cooper/#18 Welch. If you look at 157 there is nobody below those top 3 i listed, that I don't think either Sorensen or Kemerer wouldn't beat right away. I think they would be right there with Smith for the 3 spot. I also can't think of any other stud redshirts entering this weight from around the country that I haven't accounted for.
At 165, next year graduates half the weight class #1 Dieringer/#4 Rodrigues/#5 Perrotti/#8 Welch/#9 Wilson/#10 Staudenmeyer/#11 weatherman/#16 Fierro/#20 Pickett. The top guys at this weight next season will be I.Jordan/Lewis/Rohskopf/Possibly A. Valencia but I don't think he competed in any folkstyle this season so not sure on his weight. I think Bo Jordan moves up for sure as do many on the ohio state board, he looks like a shell of his former self this season sucking back down for the team. Of the top guys, I think Marinelli is far better on his feet than Lewis/Rohskopf but Valenica is really tough. Lewis is a demon on top, Marinelli's best option against him is to just pick neutral and pick him apart on his feet and build a good lead. I would slot Marinelli in as #3. I think I.Jordan may big brother him as i'm sure they have worked out plenty in the Graham room and camps whenever the Jordans are in town. Marinelli will be to us what Bo Jordan was to tOSU last year during their title run. A stud freshman who will high AA (3rd) and pick up bonus along the way.
We know what we have in Meyer and Brooks, All of the top guys at 174 return next year except #6 Butler/#8 Brunson/#9 Kent/#10 Ottinger/#12 Waters/#17 Barnes. I think Meyer will be in about the same range as I'm hoping for this year 5-8. But, a much needed supporting All american to go with our 6 High AA studs. Brooks I think will fill the same role as Meyer, a much needed supporting All American. But based on what i've seen in his career so far I have a hard time picking him to high AA. I predicted it all season long last year and this year, but he just doesn't get it done. 184 Graduates about half of the studs in this weight class, making it a big easier road to hoe. #2 Brown/#6 Avery/#7 STauffer/#8 Zillmer/#14 Miller/#15 Thomas/#17 Courts/#20 Utley. This weight also adds bigger Z. Valencia who will be in the mix. I think Brooks will slide into 5-7 range next season, although I'm hoping i'm wrong and we see him higher.
Finally we get to our 6th and final high AA STOLLHOUSE. Hwt Graduates a fair amount of Talent with #1 Gwiazdowski/#5 Marsden/#10 Smith/#12 Wessell/#16 Stolfi/#17 Shaw/#18 Cabell. Returning are Walz/Coon/Snyder/Dejournette above Stoll. I think Stoll is better than Dejournette and he will slot in at #4 at this weight next season. I have full confidence he will rebound from this injury just like Telford did from his. If he is not able to AA this season, he will come back strong and be a 3x AA for us just like Big bob. Stoll will be right there competing for the pinnacle his JR/SR seasons.
I have purposefully left out 141 and 197 in my analysis because If i'm being honest, I haven't seen much out of them to indicate significant NCAA points from the two. But, much like Stoll from RS -> RSFR I would not rule out vast improvement.
That leaves us with 8 AA's in my estimation
Gilman Top 2
Clark Top 2
Sorensen Top 2
Kemerer Top 4
Marinelli Top 3
Meyer 5-8
Brooks 5-8
Stollhouse Top 4
This is a winning recipe. Although you all probably know me as an eternal optimistic, do any think that this is not realistic?
