ESPN has Iowa at #156. I was surprised that ISU was 96, thought they'd be higher.
Minny is currently 8th, so hopefully the Hawks can steal one at the Barn.
Minny is currently 8th, so hopefully the Hawks can steal one at the Barn.
Will Iowa be able to fix its crappy RPI?
- Thread starter paladinhawk
- Start date
RPI doesn't become a useful statistic until late January/early February. When high major teams are playing 250+ teams in the noncon, it automatically hurts RPI. Conference play sorts it out.
It can go up, but the loss to UNO and the number of games against teams 300+ in the RPI will hurt all season. Enjoy the season for what it is, a chance to get the young guys experience.
I agree we're most likely not a tourney team this season. HOWEVER, there is enough young talent on the roster (especially when Cook and Jones get back) for this team to make a run @ 10 wins in conference play. IF they can get to 8-5 in non conference... and 10-8 in league play.... and steal a couple games in the BIG tourney....I think gets them into the discussion. Lots of "if's" and "and's" I realize... but a guy can hope.
I have started to think about what it would take for iowa to get in the tourney-just a little bit ... Like if they go 3-0 the rest of non-conference, 10-11 wins in the Big and 1-2 in BTT then maybe??? Then I stopped myself because in reality I am just going to be looking at each game as a possibility of a W and seeing young guys progress and have their moments. That's as high as I am willing to let myself think. As a Hawkeye football fan who thought the program was bottoming out during/after the PSU loss and a series of decommittments around that time added to that feeling -readjusting expectations for the end of season has made it fun. I am sorta looking forward to each game and not having it be so tense with the fate of the season riding on game. That's an exhausting to go through the season. I'll proabably be that way again next year. But for now I'll keep expectations as low as possible and try to enjoy .
No, we need a spectacular B10 record, something like 14-4 or better to make the tournament at this point. Going 12-6 in the B10 still leaves us with an expected RPI of 51 according to RPI forecast, which would most likely be on the outside looking in. We're not digging out of this big of RPI hole this year.
A 10-8 B10 record leaves us with an expected RPI of 76, not going to get us close to the bubble unfortunately.
A team that goes 12-6 in the Big Ten, I'm guessing, has never been left out of the tournament.
Which is why you should avoid those games or only play one or two at most. Not five like we are this year. Teams like UNO or North Dakota are good non-conf opponents, they are both likely to be in the 150-200 range. You still should beat these teams 90% of the time and they don't hurt your RPI like playing the Delaware St's of the world do. And if you lose to them, well you probably don't belong in the tournament any way.
Has any B10 team that had a non-conf RPI of over 150 gone 12-6 or better in conference play?
Probably not... and nor do I think this team does... BUT, *IF* a team could ever do such a thing, I'd think it would have to be a team that either:
A) is young and still figuring things out in the non-con, and then proceeds to put it together during B1G play.
B) has a really good player injured and that person has such an impact on the team that once they come back the situation changes meaningfully
Iowa could qualify for A for sure, and depending on how good Cook is defensively later in the year, might partly qualify for B as well (even though he will never eclipse Jok as the best player on this team)
Agreed but to be fair, two of those came via the Emerald Coast Classic. Your point is valid however.
You also have to remember how the teams you beat do. I remember UNI beat LSU one year early on in the season. Well that win basically carried UNI's RPI because LSU ended up being rated in the top 10. That spiked UNI's RPI way up.
So if ISU goes on and has a good year that will help Iowa's RPI. Also if Iowa can "steal" a game from one of the conferences top teams, that will also BOOST the RPI.
So if ISU goes on and has a good year that will help Iowa's RPI. Also if Iowa can "steal" a game from one of the conferences top teams, that will also BOOST the RPI.
If the Hawks play every game the way they did against ISU, they have a good shot at an NCAA invitation, IMHO. The UNI game may tell a lot.
Have to protect home court and steal a few big games on the road from here on out.
Yup win the games at home and don't have any really "BAD" losses in conference. I agree that they have to win/upset 1-2 more teams to offset the NOU loss.
For us to even think about NCAA's is going to require a pretty big run in the near future. We're way behind the 8 ball right now. We would have to win out in non con and go something like 11-7 in B1G play. Even with the nice win against ISU we're just 5-5 overall with only 1 top 100 win (barely) and several bad losses. Our resume sucks. Just enjoy the wins and growth you see this year. Next year Iowa will have the rim protectors to make more of a run.
If they win 15 of their next 22 games, then they will raise some eyebrows... The committee does include how a team finishes, and their political pull(which Iowa has a good amount of), in deciding who gets in... I'll take another play in game. Especially with this group! They will not be freshmen come March!
To say we are on the outside looking in is not accurate. The non-conf is weighted in the decision of the NCAA. Remember about 3-4 years ago we went 10-2 or 11-1 in non conf (SOS was 300+). This year our non-conf is 96 currently.
Iowa's only BAD loss is ONU. Their other losses are to UVA, Memphis, ND, and seton Hall (all teams are in the top 150 in RPI). Now if we would of lost to a team with an RPI of 200+ then it would a "bad" loss.
Look ing at the RPI Minnesota is #12 right now. You can't tell me they are a top 12 team in the NCAA. Iowa has chances to improve their RPI and their NCAA resume. All it takes is winning 1-2 games over top 50 competition and your RPI will jump way up.
Iowa's only BAD loss is ONU. Their other losses are to UVA, Memphis, ND, and seton Hall (all teams are in the top 150 in RPI). Now if we would of lost to a team with an RPI of 200+ then it would a "bad" loss.
Look ing at the RPI Minnesota is #12 right now. You can't tell me they are a top 12 team in the NCAA. Iowa has chances to improve their RPI and their NCAA resume. All it takes is winning 1-2 games over top 50 competition and your RPI will jump way up.
In the immortal words of that sage philosopher, Al Davis: Just win, baby!
What was Wisconsin's non-con RPI last year? They had a tough start including a bad home loss to Western IL. They even lost the first couple in the B1G before going on a tear. Not saying for a second I seeing us do that but it's still something of a possibility at least.
This is why RPI is ridiculous by itself. Go look at Minny's non-con schedule. The majority of their games were at home. Best wins are Arkansas by 14 & St Johns by 6 both at home. They beat Vandy by 4 on a nuetral court. They lost to FSU at FSU by 8 (ACC challenge). Arkansas's best win is a 3 point win over Texas who is 5-5... all other garbage teams. Vandy is 6-5 with no good wins. St Johns is 5-6 with no good wins.
I do think Minny is improved but 12th in RPI give me a huge break.
We have played Seton Hall, Virginia, Memphis, Notre Dame, ISU & UNI. Compare that to FSU, Arkansas, Vandy & St Johns. That's an RPI difference of 125+
Usually events itself out but look at the history of the committee..
12-6 or better in league is Iowa's ONLY chance at the dance. I believe there have only been 1-2 13 loss at large teams in the NCAA tournament!
12-6 or better in league is Iowa's ONLY chance at the dance. I believe there have only been 1-2 13 loss at large teams in the NCAA tournament!
They were 8-5 going into the B1G last year.
Lost to Georgetown, Marquette (who we stomped)
Bad loss to Western IL
Beat Syracuse, Temple & VCU
Iowa this year..
Lost to Seton Hall, Virginia, Memphis, Notre Dame
Bad loss to UNO
Beat ISU & UNI
Wisky had an 89 RPI to our 148 RPI assuming we win the next two to finish 8-5 as well.
They played one 300+ RPI team, we will have played five. There's the difference. Well that and they had some much better wins than we do.
I follow you but I still think RPI is a ridiculous metric by itself. When playing a non-power 5/6 school beyond about 125 should it really matter that much for a power 5/6 school? There's not much difference between a 150, 200 and a 300 in my book. You should win all of those games. UNO was a horrible loss as was Western IL last year for Wisky.
