I understand your theory, and somewhat agree with "abundance of caution". What I disagree with is turning backs on science and doubling down on bad decisions in the name of science, but really to save face and try to save credibility. This ranges from social distancing to mask mandates to vaccine mandates.A lucky guess doesn't mean that's good science or good practice. Particularly if you are wrong more people die versus the more conservative approach where if you wrong the worst consequence is people are annoyed a little bit.
In reality, there were people at NIH and NIAID who knew what we were dealing with earlier in the process than is being admitted. The world had been doing research on the SARS virus since 2010, and the US had been doing research on gain of function on the SARS virus since 2014, first in NC, and then moving the research to Wuhan when Obama outlawed gain if function in the US. It's no coincidence that Fauci made predictions of a vaccine in February 2020.
This comment isn't directed at you, but is just in general. For people to say that it's all in hindsight is either blissfully ignorant or intentionally obtuse. There's clear evidence from e-mails and research grants. It's human nature to not want to believe that people we trust will betray us.