2017 NCAA National Championship

[JustWrestle133]

I think next year is poised to be the best team race in recent memory. 4 teams have a legitimate chance to take home the title and another 2 teams fan bases think they have a chance to take home the title.

4 schools with a legitimate chance:
Penn State
Iowa
Ohio State
Okie State

2 schools whose fans think they have a shot (and they do have an outside shot, but they are underdogs):
Michigan
Virginia Tech

I am going to go through each weight class and assign points to each team's wrestler based upon where I think they will finish. Points go like this 1st-25, 2nd-20, 3rd-17, 4th-14, 5th-12, 6th-10, 7th-8, 8th-6. I understand this is not perfect, because it is very hard to account for bonus points, but this provided an outline.

Also, I know I made some mistakes. I am not perfect and this is of course my opinion. Don't insult me, just add your opinion. Thanks, enjoy!

125:
1. Gilman, 25
2. Tomasello, 20
3. Piccinnini, 17
4. Suriano, 14
5. Micic
6. Milhof
7. Peters
8. Oliver


133:
1. Clark, 25
2. Richards
3. Cortez, 17
4. Dance
5. Montoya
6. DeCamillo
7. Brock, 8
8. Taylor

Of the Big 4, only Ohio State does not have a wrestler in the top 8 at 133. I think they are going to trot out True Freshmen Pletcher, who I have as a round of 12 guy and have scoring 4 points. Pletcher is the #8 overall recruit in this class and will have to win a wrestle off against last year's #47 overall recruit Jose Rodriguez.

141:
1. Heil, 25
2. McKenna
3. Ashnault
4. Hayes, 14
5. Kolodzik
6. Jack
7. Ward
8. Gross

*Gulibon and Turk are both Round of 12 or 16 in what has turned into a deep weight. Phillipi, Meredith, Thorn, Chisko are some of the other names that fail to AA in this scenario. I give both Guilbon and Turk 4 points here.

149:
1. Retherford, 25
2. Sorensen, 20
3. M. Jordan, 17
4. Collica, 14
5. Mayes
6. Pantaleo
7. Thomsen
8. Oliver


157:
1. Nolf, 25
2. Tsirtsis
3. Smith, 17
4. Palacio
6. Kemerer, 10
7. Berger
8. Shields

*Ryan is NQ, but I don't think he scores any points.

165:
1. Imar
2. I. Jordan
3. Massa
4. Lewis
5. Marinielli, 12
6. Rodgers, 10
7. McFadden
8. Joseph, 6

*This is a very talented weight class and perhaps the most talented wrestler in the entire field I have just on the outside of the top 8. This is incoming Freshmen Isiah White, who looks like he will have an opportunity to start as a true Freshmen, although Ohio State does have Ryan Harris, who was a top 100 recruit and will be a RS sophomore now, who is ready if White wants to Redshirt. For now though I will award White with round of 12 status and 4 points.
174:
1. B. Jordan, 25
2. Nickal, 20
3. Realbuto
4. Valencia
5. Jackson
6. Crutchmer, 10
7. Epperly
8. Meyer, 6

184:
1. Dean
2. Valencia
3. Dudley
4. Martin, 14
5. Renda
6. Brooks, 10
7. Abounader
8. Boyd, 6

*McCutcheon is a round of 12 or 16 guy and I will give him 4 points here.

197:
1. Cox
2. Pfarr
3. Benick
4. Downey
5. Haught
6. Studabaker
7. Weigel, 8
8. Harner

*First weight that is really open for the big 4. Kolin Moore is a NQ for the Bucks, but I can't make him a scorer. Halloway or Wilke for the Hawkeyes has a better chance to score, but still will wait to see something from them. Cassar, for PSU has the best shot to be an AA, but I am not sure what his status is as he is not even on PSU roster right now.

Heavy:
1. Snyder, 25
2. Walz
3. Coon
4. Medberry
5. Dhesi
6. Stoll, 10
7. Kroells
8. Chakonis

Nevills is a guy witha high ceiling, but injuries have a way of humbling everybody and I have him as a round of 12 guy as he is still not quite back yet, 4 points.

Tanner Allen, looks to be the heavyweight for the pokes and he leaves a little to be desired in terms of production. Maybe, Okie State will find someone else or maybe the younger Mardsen will bulk up. Ethan Anderson is an incoming Freshmen, but he will likely need a redshirt to adjust to heavyweight as he has been a 220 in high school.

Totals:
1. Iowa- 122
2a. Penn State- 119
2b. Ohio State- 119
4. Okie State- 115

Please make corrections!! I was just bored and wanted to start thinking about next year's phenomenal team race that is developing.

 

[Omahahawk86]

From what I've heard
Dance and NATO to 133
Micic will be 125 for Michigan and he is the real deal.
I haven't heard that tsirtsis was moving up?
Imar to 165
Nolf at 57
Joseph 165.
Miles Martin RS
Not real sure if you'll see Downey wrestle again and if he does it may be at 184.
Is tanner Allen the JC kid? I'm pretty sure the jc national champ is going to osu.

 

[Wrassler223]

Awesome job! Must have a lot of free time on your hands! Lol only thing I disagree with is the amount of points you have for the top 4, 120+ points for four teams is a ton. I'd flip flop the Pokes and Hawkeyes but looks good.

 

[JustWrestle133]

From what I've heard
Dance and NATO to 133
Micic will be 125 for Michigan and he is the real deal.
I haven't heard that tsirtsis was moving up?
Imar to 165
Nolf at 57
Joseph 165.
Miles Martin RS
Not real sure if you'll see Downey wrestle again and if he does it may be at 184.
Is tanner Allen the JC kid? I'm pretty sure the jc national champ is going to osu.

NATO is going to be a 125. He was talking about wanting to move up. However, I am pretty sure he has come to realize his future is at 57 kg and not 65kg and will adjust his workout (read: powerlifting) routine accordingly.

I would be surprised if Dance moved up as VT doesn't have another 125 on their roster and they just added a quality 133 recruit.

Micic is legit, so is Youtsey though.

Imar is a big 157, but I kept hearing how weight isn't an issue for Imar, so we shall see.

Tsirtsis moving up is my own thought. Last year, nothing left to really prove, no team considerations to think about now, so he chooses to wrestle "fat and happy."

I have heard the Joesph and Nolf were both too big for 157, but one of them will find their way down there.

I doubt Myles Martin redshirts when Ohio State will be in serious contention for 1st place

Tanner Allen is not the JC kid. That is good to know and fills a significant hole for Okie State. That might be enough to push them over the top. The only incoming heavyweight recruit I can find for them though is Ethan Anderson, and he was a 220 who will need to redshirt before being competitive.

 

[Omahahawk86]

I have no first hand info on NATO but I trust the person who told me. He has a far better chance of winning at 25 than 33 though.

Dance has already said he's moving up. 2 years in a row he has beaten the national champ then laid an egg at nationals

Micic pounds Youtsey and I expect to see him in the finals vs Gillman next year.

No insight on the Joseph/Nolf just from what I've read. Penn state guys chime in for us here please.

They've said Miles was going to redshirt to get bigger but I guess you never know with Ryan. If he wants an opportunity to be a 4xer he'd need to redshirt. No one is beating Dean.

 

[JustWrestle133]

I have no first hand info on NATO but I trust the person who told me. He has a far better chance of winning at 25 than 33 though.

Dance has already said he's moving up. 2 years in a row he has beaten the national champ then laid an egg at nationals

Micic pounds Youtsey and I expect to see him in the finals vs Gillman next year.

No insight on the Joseph/Nolf just from what I've read. Penn state guys chime in for us here please.

They've said Miles was going to redshirt to get bigger but I guess you never know with Ryan. If he wants an opportunity to be a 4xer he'd need to redshirt. No one is beating Dean.

I didn't know Dance was a done deal. I'm not going to edit my original post just yet as I will have to change quite a few things when I take Dance out of 125 and add him to the 133 mix. I would suspect I will be putting Dance somewhere in the 4-6 range. I have to go see what I can find for history and common opponents for Dance and Decamillo, Taylor, Montoya, and the rest of the 133's.

As for Micic, I think I would put him in at #4. Below Gilman, Tomasello, and Piccinnini. The last match I can think of that I saw Micic was a loss to Pic at WNO. Both are going to have a major impact on the weight, along with Suriano that is for sure.

 

[Cali_Nittany]

I have no first hand info on NATO but I trust the person who told me. He has a far better chance of winning at 25 than 33 though.

Dance has already said he's moving up. 2 years in a row he has beaten the national champ then laid an egg at nationals

Micic pounds Youtsey and I expect to see him in the finals vs Gillman next year.

No insight on the Joseph/Nolf just from what I've read. Penn state guys chime in for us here please.

They've said Miles was going to redshirt to get bigger but I guess you never know with Ryan. If he wants an opportunity to be a 4xer he'd need to redshirt. No one is beating Dean.

Nolf 157. Joseph 165. Joseph missed 157 twice this season.

 

[LaxHawk174]

Don't forget about Medberry at 285. he'll be back for his senior season. I would probably put him in the top 3 or 4, bumping Stoll down one position, at least for the time being.

 

[JustWrestle133]

Don't forget about Medberry at 285. he'll be back for his senior season. I would probably put him in the top 3 or 4, bumping Stoll down one position, at least for the time being.

Oh wow! Medberry had completely escaped my mind.

Thank you to everyone that is pointing out corrections. I am going to do an update shortly and will have a much better pre, pre, pre-season look at the 2017 team race.

 

[Omahahawk86]

Pretty sure Lavion Mayes was a senior last year also.

 

[TarpHawk]

If we can score 124 points for the first time since 2010 I won't even be that upset if we don't win. We need to prove that we can generate 100+ points, which we haven't done in a while. If we can consistently do that, we will win more often than not.

But reclaiming the title would also be nice.

 

[moug]

NATO is going to be a 125. He was talking about wanting to move up. However, I am pretty sure he has come to realize his future is at 57 kg and not 65kg and will adjust his workout (read: powerlifting) routine accordingly.

I would be surprised if Dance moved up as VT doesn't have another 125 on their roster and they just added a quality 133 recruit.

Micic is legit, so is Youtsey though.

Imar is a big 157, but I kept hearing how weight isn't an issue for Imar, so we shall see.

Tsirtsis moving up is my own thought. Last year, nothing left to really prove, no team considerations to think about now, so he chooses to wrestle "fat and happy."

I have heard the Joesph and Nolf were both too big for 157, but one of them will find their way down there.

I doubt Myles Martin redshirts when Ohio State will be in serious contention for 1st place

Tanner Allen is not the JC kid. That is good to know and fills a significant hole for Okie State. That might be enough to push them over the top. The only incoming heavyweight recruit I can find for them though is Ethan Anderson, and he was a 220 who will need to redshirt before being competitive.

Ramos and Dennis, both 133. The move up for NATO doesn't prohibit him from being 57 for freestyle.

 

[JustWrestle133]

Ramos and Dennis, both 133. The move up for NATO doesn't prohibit him from being 57 for freestyle.

I was referring to his intense and widely publicized power lifting routine changing so he doesn't lift his way out of 57 kg. Tomasello is quite short, I think he stays at 125.

 

[moug]

I was referring to his intense and widely publicized power lifting routine changing so he doesn't lift his way out of 57 kg. Tomasello is quite short, I think he stays at 125.

I'm familiar with his legendary lifting. I'm only saying even if he is at 133, he can still be 57 for freestyle. Either way, I don't know where he will be come fall. All speculation here.

 

[JustWrestle133]

I have made a couple of corrections and adjusted the point totals accordingly.

This is how close the team score is going to be next year. In my mock a few hours ago I had Ohio State winning the National Title. Just a couple hours later and I have Iowa in first place and tOSU and PSU in a tie for second. Sticking with the exact same formula that I stated I was going to use before I ever started.

I honestly think the title is going to actually be deciding during a finals match.

This is fuel for the fire, for the people that wanted to Redshirt Burak last year in order to save him for a National Title run this year. I wasn't someone that was vocally supporting that idea. However, having Burak available for this season (everything else being equal), sure does make this Iowa team look like National Title "favorites" instead of just "contenders."

 

[nitlion6]

Just my 2 cents.
Penn State wins their 6th out out 7.
The 2 OSUs battle it out for second.
And just like this previous season Iowa and VTech will battle for that 4th place trophy.

Lots of folks have been yakking that if Iowa is gonna win one it has to be this year. This year most likely isn't happening.

However, with Kemerer, Marinelli, Young, Lee, Teasdale, the kid from California and I believe you guys have another lightweight and Stoll in house and a continuation of great recruiting -
I am having a tough time figuring a way to put it without the overly sensative ones going off the deep end.
Right now, in my eyes Iowa is always the real threat right up until they are mathematically eliminated. That is how my gut always feels. However when I sit down and look at things cognitively, despite what my gut says, my mind concludes the real threat is someone else.
With the talent Brands is accumulating, in another couple of years my gut and my mind will be seeing the same exact thing. Iowa as Penn State's real threat.

Not this year though.

 

[McCulloughd]

 

[LaxHawk174]

I'm not so sure PSU has such a stranglehold on the 2017 title that many seem to think.
I think there are about 6-7 really strong team next year: Iowa, PSU, tOSU, OSU, MIZZ, Mich, VTech.
I think there are realistically 4 with a chance of winning it: Iowa, PSU, tOSU, and OSU

Iowa
Gilman (AA)
Clark (AA)
Turk
Sorensen (AA)
Kemerer (AA)
Marinelli (AA)
Meyer (AA)
Brooks (AA)
Holloway
Stoll (AA)

PSU
Suriano (AA)
Cortez (AA)
Gulibon
Retherford (AA)
Nolf (AA)
Joseph (AA)
Nickal (AA)
Rasheed/McCutcheon
Cassar
Nevills (AA)

tOSU
Tomasello (AA)
Pletcher
Hayes (AA)
Jordan (AA)
Ryan
White
Jordan (AA)
Martin (AA)
Moore
Snyder (AA)

OSU
Piccinnini (AA)
Brock (AA)
Heil (AA)
Collica (AA)
Smith (AA)
Rogers (AA)
Crutchmer (AA)
Boyd (AA)
Weigel (AA)
?

Honestly, OSU is probably the favorite on paper to have the most all americans next year although I think they are lacking the multiple finalist potential that the 3 other teams have. I see Iowa, PSU, and tOSU each with 3 finalists and 2 champs (I have Tomasello as runner up at either 125/133). OSU only see with 1 finalist and 1 champ, could maybe have a surprise finalist though.

Important factors for Iowa
-Kemerer and Marinelli making an impact as Freshman
-Stoll getting healthy and back to form
-Meyer and Brooks improving on podium finishes
-Gilman and Clark winning titles

 

[Pennstate1985]

Laxhawk174, only one team in the last five years has had 8 AA's. Only five teams had 7 AA's in that period. You have OSU with 9 and Iowa with 8. Not saying it can't happen, but history says otherwise.

 

[wasdt21]

133 insult, insult insult nice job buddy, nice to read about wrestling not bridge fighting.

 

[butchinmi]

The one thing that makes PSU a leader in my mind is champions. From you list above, I'll list in order how confident i feel in each one being a champion (feel free to disagree):

1) Zain
2) Snyder (if he returns)
3) Cox
4) Dean
5) Nolf
6) Heil
7) Clark
8) Imar/Jordan
9) Nickal/Jordan (interesting to see a full feed Jordan against Nickal)
10) Gilman and the field

PSU has 3 guys with a shot and 2 out of 3 is more likely than 1 out of 3 in my opinion. Iowa has 2, with 0 out of 2 being more likely than 2 out of 2. Plus Nolf/Nickal/Zain will score some pretty impressive bonus points. Maybe i'm off in my thinking, it's just my gut.

 

[pumpdog20]

I still think it'll be Carton @ 141 for Iowa.

 

[TarpHawk]

I still think it'll be Carton @ 141 for Iowa.

Your lips to no one's ears.

 

[Omahahawk86]

I still think it'll be Carton @ 141 for Iowa.

As do I. He's got about 6 months how to figure out how to finish. Let's just all hope the light bulb goes on for him.

 

[NYWRESTLER94]

Like to see the love for picc hope he does fill the OP's scenario at 125 NaTo to 133 isn't ideal for us next season I say he's at 125 at least for 1 more year and MAYBE moves up for his senior season, looked small compared to most of his opponents at the trials. White has to get accustomed to not only college wrestling but college life in general. Even if he's ready to compete out the gate he might not be ready on the academic side best case scenario for him next season is to redshirt. I also expect Bo to move up to 174 next season and Myles to either move up or redshirt to make the move up. Jose Rodriguez is a very good talent and possibly will be 1 of the best reserves in the country he's told us he's going 133, he's originally from NY and was a state finalist here as a freshman from the same HS as Tom Ryan

 

[rossel 33]

157 has no 5th... does kemerer move up?

 

[SPOONER]

I still think it'll be Carton @ 141 for Iowa.

Would be surprised by this. It was close last year and Turk appears to be committed to wrestling out of season.

 

[Omahahawk86]

You think Carton is just going to be sitting around eating Cheetos and playing Halo?

It's very close and it will be very close. The sample size is really to small for Turk to tell. He should have a great opportunity to show his skills against elite competition this weekend. We only have one head to head to go off of and Carton won. He also had a pretty good 10 before Brody took over.

 

[HawkTalk3]

To be fair to Carton he isn't eligible for UWW Juniors, but Carton did wrestle at UWW University Nationals last summer where he was 3-2 at 65kg.

I am sure a lot of who goes to University's depends on the individual wrestler's development plan. For instance when we interview Schwab last week he said most of his guys will be skipping summer freestyle to focus their summer training on folkstyle.

 

[DayHawk18]

Cortez is better than Brock? I don't think so

 

[TarpHawk]

You think Carton is just going to be sitting around eating Cheetos and playing Halo?

It's very close and it will be very close. The sample size is really to small for Turk to tell. He should have a great opportunity to show his skills against elite competition this weekend. We only have one head to head to go off of and Carton won. He also had a pretty good 10 before Brody took over.

I don't think he's sitting around eating Cheetos and playing Halo (as if I know what that is), but he's had 4 years to become excellent and hasn't. Based on that trajectory, I'm skeptical about his upside at this point in his career.

Turk is the new Grothus: i.e. hoping the unknown has more upside than the known.

Seriously, if they're close I'd go with Turk to maximize his mat time.

 

[LaxHawk174]

I've got Penn State next year at
125 Suriano 4th
133 Cortez 7th
141 Gulibon R12
149 Retherford 1st
157 Nolf 1st
165 Joseph 7/8th
174 Nickal 2nd
184 Rasheed/McCutcheon R12
197 Cassar R16
285 Nevills 7/8th

Which I don't think is an insurmountable lead.

 

[edquinn06]

Am I the only one who thinks Suriano might not AA as a true freshmen?

 

[LaxHawk174]

Am I the only one who thinks Suriano might not AA as a true freshmen?

I'm not sure. I think he has all of the physical attributes to be an AA right away at 125. Its probably the easiest weight class for true freshman to transition into, and considering he was a top 3 overall recruit hes pretty darn good. He has incredible defense as well, which will serve him well at the D1 level imo. I think he'll have a similar freshman year to Megaludis except probably not as high of a finish on the podium. He wont be a bonus point guy, but more of a Sorensen type for them is my prediction, a winner.

 

[Pennstate1985]

Am I the only one who thinks Suriano might not AA as a true freshmen?

Suriano is a beast now. His singular focus on his craft will serve him well in a college room. I don't know where he finishes next year, but I will be personally surprised if he doesn't AA.

 

[Pennstate1985]

I've got Penn State next year at
125 Suriano 4th
133 Cortez 7th
141 Gulibon R12
149 Retherford 1st
157 Nolf 1st
165 Joseph 7/8th
174 Nickal 2nd
184 Rasheed/McCutcheon R12
197 Cassar R16
285 Nevills 7/8th

Which I don't think is an insurmountable lead.

I think you're selling gulibon and cassar short, and possibly Cortez/Joseph. Of course Cassar has to enroll first, so am probably on a limb maybe! It took Gulibon a year to adjust to 133 and then he performed well. He's had a year at 141, and many of us expect him to perform much better than he did last season.

 

[Omahahawk86]

I think you're selling gulibon and cassar short, and possibly Cortez/Joseph. Of course Cassar has to enroll first, so am probably on a limb maybe! It took Gulibon a year to adjust to 133 and then he performed well. He's had a year at 141, and many of us expect him to perform much better than he did last season.

You may be right but the only bad thing is 141 gets a lot tougher next year. There are new faces there next year that will make some immediate noise.

 

[edquinn06]

Suriano is a beast now. His singular focus on his craft will serve him well in a college room. I don't know where he finishes next year, but I will be personally surprised if he doesn't AA.

I'm not saying he doesn't have the skill set. I don't see him beating Gilman, Nato, Micic, Dance, Peters. Still have Millhof, Bresser, Schram, McGhee, Cruz, etc. Not to mention some studs coming off of RS. Tall task for a TF. If anyone can do it Suriano can, I just don't think its gonna happen. Think he would benefit better with a RS year, but PSU wouldn't.

 

[21Guns]

Hall is not an automatic redshirt: A decision will be made at some point in the fall.
Also, NaTo is at 133, not 125, and Dance is also at 133.
IMar is at 165, Nolf stays at 157. This does not automatically mean Joseph goes at 165, as I said, a decision has still not been made, and Hall may NOT redshirt.

 

[21Guns]

It is also POSSIBLE, though not probable, that McCutcheon moves up to 197, as Rasheed is now at 184 and is a full head taller than McCutcheon. If this happens, McCutcheon wrestles off with Cassar to determine the starter.

I am not counting on Nevills: At this point he appears injury prone, and it is what it is, some kids just can't stay healthy. If this happens it's possible we go with Cassar at Hwy, which is unfortunate. The key for Iowa, I believe, lies in Stolls ability to be healthy, I don't think we're scoring any points there, and I think if Snyder gets gold in Rio, there is no way he is coming back. Iowa can make up serious ground with a healthy Stoll..