2023 NCAA Tourney Wrestlestat

[jmadden1998]

I ran the entire bracket through wrestlestat’s comparison tool. Here’s how it turned out

125

1 Lee
2 Glory
3 Noto
4 Ramos
5 Cronin
6 McKee
7 DeAugustino
8 Cardinale

133

1 Fix
2 RBY
3 Arujau
4 Byrd
5 Nagao
6 Orine
7 Colaiocco
8 Latona

141

1 Hart
2 Matthews
3 Belton
4 Woods
5 Alirez
6 Bartlett
7 Hardy
8 Jack

149

1 Yianni
2 Sasso
3 Mauller
4 Henson
5 Thomas
6 Gomez
7 Parco
8 Murin

157

1 Robb
2 O’Connor
3 Andonian
4 Humphreys
5 Haines
6 Gfeller
7 Siebrecht
8 Cardenas

165

1 Carr
2 Hamiti
3 O’Toole
4 Amine
5 Griffith
6 Monday
7 Facundo
8 Caliendo

174

1 Starocci
2 Lewis
3 Plott
4 Foca
5 Mocco
6 Labriola
7 Smith
8 O’Reilly

184

1 Brooks
2 Keckeisen
3 Hidlay
4 Munoz
5 Bolen
6 Salazar
7 Wittlake
8 Romero

197

1 Elam
2 Allred
3 Trumble
4 Sloan
5 Smith
6 Beard
7 Cardenas
8 Caffey

285

1 Parris
2 Hendrickson
3 Schultz
4 Kerkvliet
5 Trephan
6 Elam
7 Davison
8 Hillger

Top 20 Team Scores

1 Penn St 110
2 Missouri 90
3 Nebraska 67.5
4 Iowa 63.5
5 VA Tech 62
6 Cornell 61.5
7 tie NC State 58
7 tie Oklahoma St 58
9 Michigan 42.5
10 Ohio St 38.5
11 Minnesota 37.5
12 Wisconsin 35
13 Oregon St 32
14 Iowa St 31
15 tie Northwestern 27.5
15 tie Princeton 27.5
17 Lehigh 26.5
18 Arizona St 26
19 North Carolina 22.5
20 Pitt 21

 

[Chalkdaddy94]

Not horrible overall, but it’s smoking crack on 141…

 

[MitchLL]

Wrestlestat guy getting "clicks" to his web page.

Mission Accomplished!

 

[LaxHawk174]

Not horrible overall, but it’s smoking crack on 141…

And 285 with Cass not even placing.

 

[jmadden1998]

Not horrible overall, but it’s smoking crack on 141…

Haha! Yes. He has Allan Hart beating Woods in the quarters. And then going on to win the title. LOL!

 

[jmadden1998]

And 285 with Cass not even placing.

Cass loses to Schultz in the quarters and then to Elam in the round of 12. I think Missouri hacked into his system. 🤣🤣

 

[DeadHead11]

Seems like it loves the Big12. I like to give opinions with limited insight tho

 

[dtripp26]

Not horrible overall, but it’s smoking crack on 141…

Not horrible, just the worst possible scenario for Iowa. But not horrible LOL

 

[HawkFan1986]

I ran the entire bracket through wrestlestat’s comparison tool. Here’s how it turned out

125

1 Lee
2 Glory
3 Noto
4 Ramos
5 Cronin
6 McKee
7 DeAugustino
8 Cardinale

133

1 Fix
2 RBY
3 Arujau
4 Byrd
5 Nagao
6 Orine
7 Colaiocco
8 Latona

141

1 Hart
2 Matthews
3 Belton
4 Woods
5 Alirez
6 Bartlett
7 Hardy
8 Jack

149

1 Yianni
2 Sasso
3 Mauller
4 Henson
5 Thomas
6 Gomez
7 Parco
8 Murin

157

1 Robb
2 O’Connor
3 Andonian
4 Humphreys
5 Haines
6 Gfeller
7 Siebrecht
8 Cardenas

165

1 Carr
2 Hamiti
3 O’Toole
4 Amine
5 Griffith
6 Monday
7 Facundo
8 Caliendo

174

1 Starocci
2 Lewis
3 Plott
4 Foca
5 Mocco
6 Labriola
7 Smith
8 O’Reilly

184

1 Brooks
2 Keckeisen
3 Hidlay
4 Munoz
5 Bolen
6 Salazar
7 Wittlake
8 Romero

197

1 Elam
2 Allred
3 Trumble
4 Sloan
5 Smith
6 Beard
7 Cardenas
8 Caffey

285

1 Parris
2 Hendrickson
3 Schultz
4 Kerkvliet
5 Trephan
6 Elam
7 Davison
8 Hillger

Top 20 Team Scores

1 Penn St 110
2 Missouri 90
3 Nebraska 67.5
4 Iowa 63.5
5 VA Tech 62
6 Cornell 61.5
7 tie NC State 58
7 tie Oklahoma St 58
9 Michigan 42.5
10 Ohio St 38.5
11 Minnesota 37.5
12 Wisconsin 35
13 Oregon St 32
14 Iowa St 31
15 tie Northwestern 27.5
15 tie Princeton 27.5
17 Lehigh 26.5
18 Arizona St 26
19 North Carolina 22.5
20 Pitt 21

The algorithm still isn’t correct if Hart’s gonna win 141 and big Cass doesn’t AA. @andegre should have to donate to HWC for throwing this bad juju on us. Shame shame.

 

[LagunaBeachHawk]

Haha! Yes. He has Allan Hart beating Woods in the semis. And then going on to win the title. LOL!

Even better is Belton beating him for 3rd. Belton is more likely to go 0-2 than get 3rd.

 

[DeadHead11]

Belton is a sleeper. Better not slumber

 

[Trapper85]

And 285 with Cass not even placing.

And even if more of a possibity, no Kennedy in top 8.

 

[dtripp26]

Belton is a sleeper. Better not slumber

 

[Random4598375]

Wrestlestat has had a thing for Missouri all season. They were ranked #1 ahead of PSU until into January.

 

[mcpat]

RBY running out of chances to catch Fix. (Wrestlestat has always had Fix ahead of RBY.)

 

[dtripp26]

RBY running out of chances to catch Fix. (Wrestlestat has always had Fix ahead of RBY.)

If he hasn't gotten him by now he may well never get him...crazy

 

[Random4598375]

RBY running out of chances to catch Fix. (Wrestlestat has always had Fix ahead of RBY.)

If he comes back next year, Fix has a chance to make history as the only 5 time runner up in NCAA history.

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

Haha! Yes. He has Allan Hart beating Woods in the quarters. And then going on to win the title. LOL!

Wrestlestat is a good place to go for stats on wrestlers, but their rankings are totally useless. I wonder what king of dog poopoo information is uploaded into the system to get his rankings and in this case expected results. LOL! Still, I love the site and go there frequently for stats.

 

[Random4598375]

Wrestlestat is a good place to go for stats on wrestlers, but their rankings are totally useless. I wonder what king of dog poopoo information is uploaded into the system to get his rankings and in this case expected results. LOL! Still, I love the site and go there frequently for stats.

Yeah, wrestlestat is by far the best resource out there for college wrestling data (especially since it's free...), but it's nearly impossible to design an automated algorithm that will predict the correct winners every time, and theirs certainly does not, either. For what it is, it's pretty good, though.

 

[AFHawk86]

Not horrible, just the worst possible scenario for Iowa. But not horrible LOL

This is actually encouraging from a Hawk perspective. If they are in 4th with Woods losing twice and neither PK or Cass placing then I think second is more realistic that I first thought when seeing the brackets.

 

[dtripp26]

This is actually encouraging from a Hawk perspective. If they are in 4th with Woods losing twice and neither PK or Cass placing them I think second is more realistic that I first thought when seeing the brackets.

Yeah, ive maybe enough negative wrestlestat comments. It's a little flawed. However, with 2 potential champs we could reach 90 pts even with our rough seeding at so many weights.

Mizzou, Nebraska, Cornell will all be right in the mix as well.

 

[just_somebody]

As others have mentioned, there is much less out of conference wrestling (at least between high quality guys) than there used to be. This means there are far fewer meaningful datapoints as well.

ELO is pretty tried-and-true ranking system. There are probably some unique tweaks in wrestling-for instance trying to account for the time between weigh-in and match (this could have a pretty significant impact for some wrestlers), or a wrestler who is running all match just trying not to get pinned (about 30% of the people who wrestler Lee) but with enough good data, ELO is solid.


All of that is a defense of wrestlestat, and preface to me saying: I have no idea how or why the comparison tool would pick Belton over Woods...(!)

Id be very curious to peak inside that algorithm

 

[Random4598375]

As others have mentioned, there is much less out of conference wrestling (at least between high quality guys) than there used to be. This means there are far fewer meaningful datapoints as well.

ELO is pretty tried-and-true ranking system. There are probably some unique tweaks in wrestling-for instance trying to account for the time between weigh-in and match (this could have a pretty significant impact for some wrestlers), or a wrestler who is running all match just trying not to get pinned (about 30% of the people who wrestler Lee) but with enough good data, ELO is solid.


All of that is a defense of wrestlestat, and preface to me saying: I have no idea how or why the comparison tool would pick Belton over Woods...(!)

Id be very curious to peak inside that algorithm

Something went completely haywire with their 141 rankings in the PAC 12. Ysaguirre, who didn't even qualify for NCAAs, is ranked 5th in the weight class based on pretty much nothing (he's 8-6 and got pinned by a Harvard backup earlier in the year). Belton pinned Ysaguirre in the PAC 12 tourney and that shot his WS rank up from 52 to 9, which is why you're seeing all of these crazy upsets by him in this simulation. They need to take a look at how the algorithm got so far off the rails there.

 

[bourbon n blues]

I'm not too familiar with Wrestlestat but it seems a little silly with their conclusions.

 

[Random4598375]

I'm not too familiar with Wrestlestat but it seems a little silly with their conclusions.

The projections are for entertainment purposes only, but just as a repository for results and data, it's in a class by itself.

 

[js8793]

Something went completely haywire with their 141 rankings in the PAC 12. Ysaguirre, who didn't even qualify for NCAAs, is ranked 5th in the weight class based on pretty much nothing (he's 8-6 and got pinned by a Harvard backup earlier in the year). Belton pinned Ysaguirre in the PAC 12 tourney and that shot his WS rank up from 52 to 9, which is why you're seeing all of these crazy upsets by him in this simulation. They need to take a look at how the algorithm got so far off the rails there.

The Ysaguirre thing is because he beat Hardy. That result is blowing up their 141 algorithm.

 

[bourbon n blues]

The projections are for entertainment purposes only, but just as a repository for results and data, it's in a class by itself.

Oh ok, I remember an old NFL coach say stats are like loose women, when you get them you can do whatever you want with them. But yeah, I see what you mean about the data and how it can lend a little insight into the sport.

 

[IAROY]

I sat down and filled out every match of the tournament (LOL). Here is what I came up with.

125
Lee
Glory
Cronin
Ramos
Noto
Poulin
Courtney
Kaylor

133
Rby
Fix
Vito
Byrd
Nagao
Orine
Latona
Colaicco
- Teske - losing first round, beating henson, and losing to Colaicco

141
Woods
Alirez
Hardy
Matthews
Bartlett
Jack
Cornella
Hart

149
Yainni
Parco
Sasso
Henson
Thomas
Gomez
Murin
Milner
(Have Murin beating Milner twice)

157
AOConnor
Robb
Humphreys
Franek
Haines
Cardenas
Scott
Andonian
- Siebrecht - winning round one, losing to robb, winning over Swensen and bowing out to Saldate

165
Carr
Hamiti
OToole
Monday
Griffith
Kennedy
Ramirez
Caliendo

174
Starocci
Labriola
Lewis
Foca
Plott
Smith
Mocco
OReilly
- Brands - winning round 1, losing to Smith, beating Pasiuk and bowing out to O'Reilly (Winnable match)

184
Brooks
Keckeisen
Hidlay
Coleman
Munoz
Bolen
Romero
Salazar
-Assad - winning round one, losing to coleman, beating pinto, bowing out to bolen in bloodround

197
Truax
Beard
Bonaccorsi
Elam
Dean
Laird
Warner
Sloan

285
Parris
Kerkvliet
Cassioppi
Schultz
Hendrickson
Trephan
Davison
Hillger

 

[grapplefann]

I sat down and filled out every match of the tournament (LOL). Here is what I came up with.

125
Lee
Glory
Cronin
Ramos
Noto
Poulin
Courtney
Kaylor

133
Rby
Fix
Vito
Byrd
Nagao
Orine
Latona
Colaicco
- Teske - losing first round, beating henson, and losing to Colaicco

141
Woods
Alirez
Hardy
Matthews
Bartlett
Jack
Cornella
Hart

149
Yainni
Parco
Sasso
Henson
Thomas
Gomez
Murin
Milner
(Have Murin beating Milner twice)

157
AOConnor
Robb
Humphreys
Franek
Haines
Cardenas
Scott
Andonian
- Siebrecht - winning round one, losing to robb, winning over Swensen and bowing out to Saldate

165
Carr
Hamiti
OToole
Monday
Griffith
Kennedy
Ramirez
Caliendo

174
Starocci
Labriola
Lewis
Foca
Plott
Smith
Mocco
OReilly
- Brands - winning round 1, losing to Smith, beating Pasiuk and bowing out to O'Reilly (Winnable match)

184
Brooks
Keckeisen
Hidlay
Coleman
Munoz
Bolen
Romero
Salazar
-Assad - winning round one, losing to coleman, beating pinto, bowing out to bolen in bloodround

197
Truax
Beard
Bonaccorsi
Elam
Dean
Laird
Warner
Sloan

285
Parris
Kerkvliet
Cassioppi
Schultz
Hendrickson
Trephan
Davison
Hillger

How's this work out for team points? Gotta be a little better for the Hawks than Wrestlestat.
(Sorry, too lazy to do it myself . . .)

 

[jmadden1998]

How's this work out for team points? Gotta be a little better for the Hawks than Wrestlestat.
(Sorry, too lazy to do it myself . . .)

Without bonus:

Lee 20
Teske 1.5
Woods 20
Murin 6
Siebrecht 1.5
Kennedy 9
Brands 1.5
Assad 1.5
Warner 6.5
Cass 13.5
Total 81