bumpy weather Tuesday
- Thread starter QChawks
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Tomorrow will be my first day off in almost three months. No way I'm cancelling my tee time.
god speedTomorrow will be my first day off in almost three months. No way I'm cancelling my tee time.
Don't forget to take your 1 Iron, because you know, not even God can hit a 1 Iron.
Supposed to fly out of MSP late tomorrow morning. Fingers crossed!
So far, the weather here has been absolutely perfect.
So far, the weather here has been absolutely perfect.
I just hope we get the rain they atm believe we're going to get (1-2"). We simply cannot miss these opportunities for a good old fashioned soaker.
As for severe weather, it appears that overnight into morning is when (for eastern Iowa) when the rains begin. But say late morning/early afternoon will most likely decide whether eastern Iowa will get into the holy shit severe territory or not.
If we see some clearing/sunshine in that time, it might get VERY bumpy 'round these parts late afternoon/early evening.
The YT channel "Convective Chronicles" will be interesting viewing this morning. He usually puts out a morning "day before" discussion leading up to events such as this one. It's nerdy weather info, but he's usually spot on with his analysis.
As for severe weather, it appears that overnight into morning is when (for eastern Iowa) when the rains begin. But say late morning/early afternoon will most likely decide whether eastern Iowa will get into the holy shit severe territory or not.
If we see some clearing/sunshine in that time, it might get VERY bumpy 'round these parts late afternoon/early evening.
The YT channel "Convective Chronicles" will be interesting viewing this morning. He usually puts out a morning "day before" discussion leading up to events such as this one. It's nerdy weather info, but he's usually spot on with his analysis.
Need some weather fear porn so all the old ladies that never go outside anyway tune into local weather.
It’s ridiculous. If it’s fricking humid outside we get weather hype for days leading into it. Same with possible snow.
Everything has to be hyped as some colossal event where survivors should consider themselves lucky.
Should be two rounds. Overnight MCS from the plains and then what pops again later Tuesday. Good chance for a soaking.
the fear is real, omaha drives can't handle precipitation.
Even a sprinkle will completely **** up I80
I don't think it's "can't handle storms any more" so much as...follow me here.
Ever since the derecho, we seem to get as far as severe weather practically nothing as far as frequency of storms. We're in a major drought obviously, which means simply put very little precipitation - therefore few opportunities for big storms.
But when we actually do get storm systems, they seem to be pretty significant. Last year we had that January tornado, that late March two day period where we had a few tornadoes (including one fairly big one) as well as the NWS issuing a level 5 PDS for it (VERY rare), we had a bit of a mini derecho that rolled through mid summer I believe. Then this past winter, we really didn't get hardly any snow whatsoever, except that one January week that went down in the record books for severity (with the NWS absolutely NAILING the forecasts for those storms).
Then of course the 2020 derecho, in which we had no "days before it happened" warning of it. Yes, those that pay attention to local weather knew it was coming a handful of hours beforehand, but that storm took a lot of Iowa by surprise not only with it occurring but as to how ferocious it actually was.
So, yeah, maybe eastern Iowa is a bit leery with storm forecasts now. But IMHO, pretty damn good reasons why that's happening. As far as NWS forecasts - they've known for a week this system was coming and chances are pretty good someone is going to get hammered by it.
They're simply doing their job. Yes, "outside forecasters" are going to put on The Hype Train big time for clicks/views...but that shouldn't diminish the fact that this could wind up being a fairly significant storm system rolling through our neighborhood tonight and tomorrow.
Ever since the derecho, we seem to get as far as severe weather practically nothing as far as frequency of storms. We're in a major drought obviously, which means simply put very little precipitation - therefore few opportunities for big storms.
But when we actually do get storm systems, they seem to be pretty significant. Last year we had that January tornado, that late March two day period where we had a few tornadoes (including one fairly big one) as well as the NWS issuing a level 5 PDS for it (VERY rare), we had a bit of a mini derecho that rolled through mid summer I believe. Then this past winter, we really didn't get hardly any snow whatsoever, except that one January week that went down in the record books for severity (with the NWS absolutely NAILING the forecasts for those storms).
Then of course the 2020 derecho, in which we had no "days before it happened" warning of it. Yes, those that pay attention to local weather knew it was coming a handful of hours beforehand, but that storm took a lot of Iowa by surprise not only with it occurring but as to how ferocious it actually was.
So, yeah, maybe eastern Iowa is a bit leery with storm forecasts now. But IMHO, pretty damn good reasons why that's happening. As far as NWS forecasts - they've known for a week this system was coming and chances are pretty good someone is going to get hammered by it.
They're simply doing their job. Yes, "outside forecasters" are going to put on The Hype Train big time for clicks/views...but that shouldn't diminish the fact that this could wind up being a fairly significant storm system rolling through our neighborhood tonight and tomorrow.
I prefer my storms during the night so the whole room lights up and the house shakes.
Burns my ass that I'm recovering from pneumonia or I'd be chasing it out in Nebraska today. Love chasing that area of the country. HRRR simulated reflectively seems pretty bullish on the opportunity.
i hope a tornado comes down right on your phone and swipes right
by simply owning a phone you are consenting to the tornado
As long as hail doesn't ruin cars and roof, I welcome the storm given to us by our Otter overlords
Yes I’m going to have some pissed off clients if there is bad hail damage. It seems all business owners that have property now have a 2-5% wind hail deductible thanks for our lovely insurance companies. You’re essentially self insuring your roof.
The way I understand it, as someone with very limited knowledge, it’s hard to forecast a derecho specifically, beforehand.
In 2020… I was watching and listening to KTIV morning weather… In SE South Dakota, the storm front that produced the derecho was born. The voice of the forecaster displayed some nervousness about what he was seeing. It was still very early, but I have watched this guy give a forecast 100 times and never heard his voice inflection like that.
A few hours later, I was outside watching the storm front roll through in NW Iowa. It was nasty but I was in an area where the just 20 miles to the east of me, is where crops were blown over, structures severely damaged and then the rest of Iowa got in the mix after that.
This was about 2-3 hours before CR got hit.
IAC015-049-161645-
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240416T1645Z/
Boone IA-Dallas IA-
1111 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
BOONE AND NORTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTIES...
At 1111 AM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Minburn, or 6
miles southeast of Perry, moving north at 50 mph.
HAZARD...Damaging tornado.
SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.
This tornado will be near...
Woodward and Bouton around 1115 AM CDT.
Ledges State Park around 1125 AM CDT.
Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Minburn, Bouton, Luther, and Ledges State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.
Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!
&&
LAT...LON 4167 9391 4174 9411 4204 9410 4201 9375
TIME...MOT...LOC 1611Z 189DEG 45KT 4178 9399
TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
Tornado watch for central Iowa
Storm Prediction Center Tornado Watch 116
Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
So this initial round looks a bit trashy and I don't know that it'll do anything major. Later today though, if we're able to destablize, a bigger tornado threat may be realized.
This isn't a sure thing, however.
This isn't a sure thing, however.
Storms looking blah so far. Wonder if we're going destablize.
That said... ****ing love this spring time air. Windows open.
That said... ****ing love this spring time air. Windows open.
