Chances at NCAA's

[whatsup13579er]

I was just wondering what you guys think Iowa's chances are at the NCAA's? I haven't been able to follow the wrestling team as closely as I usually do this season so I was curious what those who are in the know think. Can Iowa win? Can they get any champs? Is it PSU's to lose? Ok State is sending 10. Are they the team to beat? Any insight for a 'fair weather' fan would be appreciated!

 

[hawkssox1]

My humble opinion PSU will roll.

 

[Stilltryingtobeafan]

Not good for Iowa. I wish I could say different.

 

[meatloaf55]

I think Iowa can have a good showing, but to have any chance at winning it all (slim) Iowa cannot have any slip ups and Penn State needs to under perform. PSU just has too many elite guys above the rest of the pack. I think Iowa would have to get titles at 125, 133, 149 and 197. As we saw from Big Tens, Penn State's guys at 149 and 197 are just a level ahead of our guys (and the rest). They kept the score close but neither Sorenson or Burak threatened to win. I am confident Gilman can beat Megaludas but NATO from fOSU is elite.
The goal is still a national championship but even under perfect circumstances it will be difficult to obtain

 

[hoythawk]

We have Gman, Clark, BS, Brooks, and Burak as legitimate Saturday night threats. We need 4 of them to reach the finals coupled with AA runs from 2 or 3 others.

 

[Old_wrestling_fan]

We have Gman, Clark, BS, Brooks, and Burak as legitimate Saturday night threats. We need 4 of them to reach the finals coupled with AA runs from 2 or 3 others.

I pretty much see it the same way, with this addition...I think we would likely need to win at least 2 titles to stay with PSU AND PSU would have to have something go the wrong way for them, like an upset or two or an injury to one of their horses for Iowa to really challenge. There is a chance, but PSU is definitely in the catbird seat at this point.

 

[meatloaf55]

I pretty much see it the same way, with this addition...I think we would likely need to win at least 2 titles to stay with PSU AND PSU would have to have something go the wrong way for them, like an upset or two or an injury to one of their horses for Iowa to really challenge. There is a chance, but PSU is definitely in the catbird seat at this point.

I agree with this but to get more specific I do not think 2 titles will do it if they do not include 149 and 197. Otherwise those will go to Penn State along with possible titles at 174 and 157. Obviously there are a lot of variables but I think Iowa would need either 3 titles at 125, 133, and 184 or two titles if one of them is 149 or 197. It wouldn't hurt if Gulibon and Conaway severally underperform and fail to AA.

 

[LaxHawk174]

I agree with this but to get more specific I do not think 2 titles will do it if they do not include 149 and 197. Otherwise those will go to Penn State along with possible titles at 174 and 157. Obviously there are a lot of variables but I think Iowa would need either 3 titles at 125, 133, and 184 or two titles if one of them is 149 or 197. It wouldn't hurt if Gulibon and Conaway severally underperform and fail to AA.

To win we need everything to go right for us, and a few things to go wrong for PSU.
We need Gilman, Clark, Sorensen, and either Brooks/Burak to make the finals. With about 2 champs. We also need Meyer to AA, and some points from Coop and Rhoads, I'm thinking Coop finds himself in R12 and hopefully he can punch through. Still to hopefully get a few wins, with some bonus. Hoping he can make a Morningstar/St. John-Esque run at the podium.

Then we need all or most of these things to happen.. Gulibon not AAing, Conaway in the 7/8 match or getting beat in R12. IMAR beating Nolf in the rubber match. Cox beating McIntosh in their rubber match. Dance beating Megaludis in their rubber match, then Tomasello beating him for 3rd. And somebody would probably need to beat Nickal although I don't know if that will happen, I'd give Realbuto the best chance, or someone like Chandler Rogers pulling out a monster throw.

So we have to wrestle to seed and above, which has been pretty rare across the whole lineup the last 5 years, and Penn state has to underperform, which also doesn't have much, let alone across their whole lineup.

 

[relishingwinning18]

To win we need everything to go right for us, and a few things to go wrong for PSU.
We need Gilman, Clark, Sorensen, and either Brooks/Burak to make the finals. With about 2 champs. We also need Meyer to AA, and some points from Coop and Rhoads, I'm thinking Coop finds himself in R12 and hopefully he can punch through. Still to hopefully get a few wins, with some bonus. Hoping he can make a Morningstar/St. John-Esque run at the podium.

Then we need all or most of these things to happen.. Gulibon not AAing, Conaway in the 7/8 match or getting beat in R12. IMAR beating Nolf in the rubber match. Cox beating McIntosh in their rubber match. Dance beating Megaludis in their rubber match, then Tomasello beating him for 3rd. And somebody would probably need to beat Nickal although I don't know if that will happen, I'd give Realbuto the best chance, or someone like Chandler Rogers pulling out a monster throw.

So we have to wrestle to seed and above, which has been pretty rare across the whole lineup the last 5 years, and Penn state has to underperform, which also doesn't have much, let alone across their whole lineup.

I think they keys to making a push, is that Gilman finishes ahead of Mega, and Brooks finishes ahead of Mccutcheon. They have no HWT, and Gulibon and Morelli will be unseeded. If both those guys get tough matches out of the gate, and fall to the backside, while getting the same luck Grothus got at big tens, we could make up some serious ground. Conaway's seeding will be interesting. He could fall to the 6/7/8 range and face a tougher matchup in the round of 16. Finally, we need them to only crown 2 champs at most.

 

[Spoons]

I figured just placement points yesterday and I got it 73-71. Psu still wins. But advancement pts will give a lead to Iowa but also bonus pts gives the lead back to psu. Also I have Brooks on the opposite side of Dean so he can make a series run to Saturday night. With all that being said it's possible they get it done with a little help from a few other teams/wrestlers. I wouldn't bet on the Hawks to win it but it certainly is possible. They are not as far behind as most think.

 

[HoundedHawk]

Given these circumstances I would say Iowa would only win in 1 out of 20 attempts.

However, having said that for Iowa to win requires two Captain Obvious things.

1. The rest of the pack to help us out, and beat their phenoms.
2. The Hawks peak like it's 1997.

 

[el dub]

When was the last time the Hawks had a kid make an unexpected run to a title? Seems like its been a long time. At our current pace, we might be lucky to get two to the finals with one champ and scrap hard for second or third place.

 

[JohnBasedow]

We will need big performances at 125, 133, 149, 157, 165, 174, 184, 197 and HWT. That is my expert analysis.

 

[Ihawkd9times]

We have Gman, Clark, BS, Brooks, and Burak as legitimate Saturday night threats. We need 4 of them to reach the finals coupled with AA runs from 2 or 3 others.

Sadly, we are going to need more than that.

Whichever team wins (which is hard to see anyone beating PSU) will need at least 2 Champions, likely 3.

Gotta figure that pusts these teams in the lead:

PSU likely champs: Zain & Nickal. Pretty darn good chance at Nolf or McIntosh being the 3rd for them. Then there is Nico being a sure fire top 4 if not a finalist or Champ because he will get Dance, which IMO is way better than a NATO/Gilman semi opponent. I don't care Dance got him last time, wont happen again.

Ok St: Ringer and Heil. Where OK state suffers is who else could even reach the finals? Boyd, JoJo or Marsden? This is there down fall even if they get 2 champs. Boy they really needed a top 5 Brock Kaid this year.

Ohio St: Snyder and Nato or maybe BoJo. All could happen but they have some serious roadblock in Gwiz, Gillman and Zeke Jordan or Ringer.

Nc State. Gwiz and maybe Gantt uspets to finals. Just not enough

V.Tech. I don't see a finalist but I do see 4 semi type guys.

Mizzou. Cox and need a hail mary from Mayes or Miklus and even at that, not many points behind that.


Then there is Iowa.

I still think Gilman will be a champ. I like NATO in the semis.
Clark. I think he is a finalist but Garret and Brewer loom.
Sorenson. Zain is in the way.
Brooks is the wildcard. Same as last year. he needs a good path and he has the talent but need I explain him to anyone on here?
Burak. He will be top 4 no doubt. but cox, McIntosh are roadblocks.

Iowa needs titles from Gilman, Clark and either Burak or Sorenson. That would put them close to PSU. However Brooks has to get at least 2-4thrd place and Meyer, Cooper and Stoll have to get in that 7th place match on sat morning. Do that and we will be looking PSU right in the eye.

I just don't see it. even if we get 2 champs and 4 finalist PSU sees matches that and re-raises.

We are still just 1-2 elite guys away. If only Brands would have just camped outside Dieringers Illinois home in high school we would have that extra 25 points. Thats it boys, Its that close and that simple. One more stud in recruiting. quality over quantity to win nationals. Same old blueprint.

 

[Stanley75]

In reality we will be going for second place. PSU has 2 more studs than we do. I could go on but depression sets in when I think of PSU and the horses they have.

 

[hawkssox1]

[




We are still just 1-2 elite guys away. If only Brands would have just camped outside Dieringers Illinois home in high school we would have that extra 25 points. Thats it boys, Its that close and that simple. One more stud in recruiting. quality over quantity to win nationals. Same old blueprint.[/QUOTE]

Well if he had camped out on Illinois it may have been a little tough since he is from Port Washington,Wi..

 

[mike tognetti]

You all need to lighten up, earlier this year I was working on a heavy weight Voodoo doll of PSU (look what happened). If you really wanted to win put your money were your mouth is. I will be outside at the Garden selling look alike Voodoo dolls of the top 4 PSU wrestlers. I don't supply pins, hammers, knives, and matches. If you buy all four PSU wrestlers, I will throw in a official with the purchase or Amalone! Supplies are limited. Will take credit cards.

 

[artradley]

I was just wondering what you guys think Iowa's chances are at the NCAA's? I haven't been able to follow the wrestling team as closely as I usually do this season so I was curious what those who are in the know think. Can Iowa win? Can they get any champs? Is it PSU's to lose? Ok State is sending 10. Are they the team to beat? Any insight for a 'fair weather' fan would be appreciated!

If we were in good shape at 141 and HWT we would have a chance, but not a great one. With Stoll at less than 100% and 141 not qualified (both absolutely horrendous luck) the odds are very long indeed. We can't have anybody not wrestle to their abilities, and two or three guys would need to exceed their expectations -- meaning multiple finalists and one or two champions.

Which is a big longshot.

 

[GOLDBANGER]

You all need to lighten up, earlier this year I was working on a heavy weight Voodoo doll of PSU (look what happened). If you really wanted to win put your money were your mouth is. I will be outside at the Garden selling look alike Voodoo dolls of the top 4 PSU wrestlers. I don't supply pins, hammers, knives, and matches. If you buy all four PSU wrestlers, I will throw in a official with the purchase or Amalone! Supplies are limited. Will take credit cards.

Oh my friend you so full of voodoo, or is that doodoo!! I'm still buying the beers in NYC if you leave that Godawful orange at home!! See ya there.

 

[hawkssox1]

You all need to lighten up, earlier this year I was working on a heavy weight Voodoo doll of PSU (look what happened). If you really wanted to win put your money were your mouth is. I will be outside at the Garden selling look alike Voodoo dolls of the top 4 PSU wrestlers. I don't supply pins, hammers, knives, and matches. If you buy all four PSU wrestlers, I will throw in a official with the purchase or Amalone! Supplies are limited. Will take credit cards.

You and Amalone have a room together in NYC?

 

[Kwoodhawk]

You all need to lighten up, earlier this year I was working on a heavy weight Voodoo doll of PSU (look what happened). If you really wanted to win put your money were your mouth is. I will be outside at the Garden selling look alike Voodoo dolls of the top 4 PSU wrestlers. I don't supply pins, hammers, knives, and matches. If you buy all four PSU wrestlers, I will throw in a official with the purchase or Amalone! Supplies are limited. Will take credit cards.

sounds really good to me....OBTW....how much for the Togs Doll?

 

[Stanley75]

You all need to lighten up, earlier this year I was working on a heavy weight Voodoo doll of PSU (look what happened). If you really wanted to win put your money were your mouth is. I will be outside at the Garden selling look alike Voodoo dolls of the top 4 PSU wrestlers. I don't supply pins, hammers, knives, and matches. If you buy all four PSU wrestlers, I will throw in a official with the purchase or Amalone! Supplies are limited. Will take credit cards.

The rules clearly posit; a price must be posted on items for sale. An entrepreneur worth his salt, would provide the necessary torture tools, at no additional cost.

 

[Old_wrestling_fan]

Ohio St: Snyder and Nato or maybe BoJo. All could happen but they have some serious roadblock in Gwiz, Gillman and Zeke Jordan or Ringer...

Then there is Iowa.
...
Brooks is the wildcard. Same as last year. he needs a good path and he has the talent but need I explain him to anyone on here?
...

A couple of comments...1. Gwiz v. Snyder - now that's a match that I would like to see. I cannot make up my mind who I think would win that one, but it would be a potential barn burner. 2. Brooks - I think the secret formula here is for him to have a "good hair day"...get the right "do", done up the right way...BAM, he's the champ! Does anyone on here know a good hairdresser than we can send to Natty's with Brooks??

 

[Sandor45]

PSU will probably take home the team title. I think we all agree on that.
Imagine if OK St. had their ideal full lineup. Who wins this year?

Optimum OK St lineup

25 Klimara
33 Kaid Brock
41 Heil
49 Collica
57 Joe Smith
65 Dinger
74 Crutchmer
84 Rodgers
97 Boyd
Heavy Marsden

I'd have to give the slight edge to OK St. Slightly more upside for them to do more damage on the backside opposed to PSU IMO.

PSU dodged a bullet this year thanks to some untimely injuries to OSU.

 

[texhawkeye]

You all need to lighten up, earlier this year I was working on a heavy weight Voodoo doll of PSU (look what happened). If you really wanted to win put your money were your mouth is. I will be outside at the Garden selling look alike Voodoo dolls of the top 4 PSU wrestlers. I don't supply pins, hammers, knives, and matches. If you buy all four PSU wrestlers, I will throw in a official with the purchase or Amalone! Supplies are limited. Will take credit cards.

We all love that VOODOO that YOU DO so well.

 

[Snake Pliskan]

Another "X Factor" for Iowa is how many points can they realistically expect from Stoll? The condition of his knee at B1G does not inspire a lot of confidence. If he were to somehow make an AA run, that would go a long way to hanging in the race.

 

[MSU158]

The other thing that hurts Iowa is, where Iowa has a stud, the weight class has several. At 125, Gilman has Tomasello, Megaludis and Dance. At 133, Clark has Garrett, Brewer and Richards. A healthy Taylor can actually be right there as well. At 149, Sorenson has Retherford and you never know which Tsirtsis will show up when the lights are on. Mayes is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. At 184, Brooks got the 2 seed but 184 is so deep he could finish anywhere from 2nd to R16. At 197, Burak has McIntosh, Cox, Pfarr and Hartmann. At 285, even before injury, Stoll was going to be very hard pressed to AA with a weight having Gwiz, Snyder, Walz, Coon, Marsden, Dhesi, Stolfi and DeJournette.

PSU, on the other hand, has Retherford looking untouchable and even after Martinez beating Nolf it is hard to expect him to lose again. Nickal had one stumble, but no onGilman and Burak have yet to do so.

Simpy put, Iowa doesn't have remotely the margin for error that PSU does. PSU has 5 guys that are nearly a lock to score big points. I am pretty sure that Iowa, OkState and either VTech, Missouri, tOSU or NCState will also have more AA's than PSU but simply not high enough AA's to outscore them!

 

[pumpdog20]

I give Iowa a 32.3(repeating of course)% chance of winning.

 

[whatsup13579er]

I give Iowa a 32.3(repeating of course)% chance of winning.

I'll take it!

 

[Azchief32]

I give Iowa a 32.3(repeating of course)% chance of winning.

Well of course

 

[Vallholl]

Chances ? 1 in a 100.

 

[dhm47]

Chances ? 1 in a 100.[/QUOTE ] Wow more residents of Realville, where have you been all year? Look we come in 3/4 it's a good spring for next year. Maybe one of the 5 '49er freshman we have in the room could move around a bit to give us a total team. Think about it.

 

[dhm47]

P Wow more residents of Realville, where have you been all year? Look we come in 3/4 it's a good spring for next year. Maybe one of the 5 '49er freshman we have in the room could move around a bit to give us a total team. Think about it.

 

[McCulloughd]

In reality we will be going for second place. PSU has 2 more studs than we do. I could go on but depression sets in when I think of PSU and the horses they have.

Agree 100% with you. I'm looking at five in the Semi"s for Penn St. and three in the Semi's for Iowa. I wouldn't be surprised though if Brooks and Burak did make the Semi's but I just don't have the confidence feeling right now. Anything can happen though. My friend and I were going to Nationals but he found out his son was coming home from Afghanistan so I'm giving my tickets to his son. Now are you going to believe me when I tell you that I fly a "Starship"?

 

[255]

It is PSU's to lose but they have to work. There are ways they lose it but it would have to be a perfect storm of them underachieving and Iowa stepping up. Possible.
PSU is not unstoppable but all they need is a good tournament. Not a great one.
Iowa has a great tournament and it will not be as easy as people think.

 

[Vallholl]

Actually, the correct response is, "More like 1 in a 1,000,000"

Chances ? 1 in a 100.[/QUOTE ]

Wow more residents of Realville, where have you been all year? Look we come in 3/4 it's a good spring for next year. Maybe one of the 5 '49er freshman we have in the room could move around a bit to give us a total team. Think about it.

 

[Mendoza77]

There is zero chance that Iowa can win. ZERO. IMPOSSIBLE. It's a certainty that Penn St. will win the next 20 years. They get any/all recruits that they want, and those recruits are so great that they will never lose, so no other team has a chance. It's all a statistical certainty, so I don't understand why they even wrestle the matches!

 

[Mendoza77]

Other impossibilities...

Soviet hockey team loses to USA hockey in 1980 Olympics - impossible!
Dan Gable loses to Larry Owings - impossible!
Alexander Karelin loses to Rulon Gardner - impossible!
Undefeated Patriots lose to Giants in 2008 Super Bowl - impossible!
Lincoln McIlravy loses to Steve Marianetti - impossible!
David Taylor gets pinned by Bubba Jenkins - impossible!

If you want, I'll give you a list of hundreds of "impossibilities." The way that many of you think, I certainly wouldn't want you coaching the Hawks!

 

[Vallholl]

And then the response to the response is "So, you're sayin' there's a chance!"

Man, this forum is a lot of work.

Actually, the correct response is, "More like 1 in a 1,000,000"

Chances ? 1 in a 100.[/QUOTE ]

Wow more residents of Realville, where have you been all year? Look we come in 3/4 it's a good spring for next year. Maybe one of the 5 '49er freshman we have in the room could move around a bit to give us a total team. Think about it.

 

[SwainL]

PSU has a good chance of 5 in the finals