Those numbers don’t add up do they? If there’s 1000 cases in the US and it doubles every 6 days, wouldn’t it take longer than 11 days to reach Italy’s total of 11k?
Coronavirus...In all Seriousness...
- Thread starter hawkeyedanny
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Those numbers don’t add up do they? If there’s 1000 cases in the US and it doubles every 6 days, wouldn’t it take longer than 11 days to reach Italy’s total of 11k?
Just read that the average hospital stay for the virus victims is 32 days. That is simply going to overwhelm the system if not brought under control soon.
Also read that having recently passed about 110,000 cases worldwide that the rate of growth will take the number of cases to one million sometime around mid April if not contained and brought under control.
Our Johnson County in Iowa now has 12 cases. I’m feeling a strong sense that they are not going to allow fans in the stands in Minneapolis. And state university classes will be online after spring break.
Interesting. I actually don't remember anything about the H1N1. Not very impressive I guess.
Those numbers of 13,000 dead out of 60 million infected comes out to a death rate of 0.0002% Normal flu is listed as around 0.1%
Currently reported COVID-19 numbers this morning are at 4359 deaths out of around 120,000 confirmed infections. That comes out to 0.036% which is 36 times worse than the flu and way worse than H1N1
Italy is reporting current death rate of 8% and mostly because of elderly population and health system getting overwhelmed and not able to treat all patients.
US has an abundance of Boomers.........YIKES
The problem with the numbers is that this disease is so new, only been going for a couple months. So 4359 worldwide deaths is not much. Until time passes and you hit 1 million cases and then you have 36,000 deaths at current rates.
How many do you have a couple months later when you have 10 million cases worldwide. The numbers just get staggering if it doesn't slow down or get brought under control.
If we had 60 million infected like with the H1N1 we are looking at 2 million+ dead.
This disease looks more like the 1918 Flu rather than the normal yearly flu.
Hospitals are already struggling with normal flu cases. Adding this new disease can possibly overwhelm the system and cause unnecessary deaths from people not being able to get treatment. That is one reason officials are taking measures to cancel and quarantine things. Trying to slow down the spread of the disease to allow the system to cope.
Thank goodness this virus doesn't spread over keyboards and the internet. We'd all be dead soon.
Stay safe.
Look for the university to make an announcement within a few hours...
A big flaw with so many people stating that the death rate is less than the flu, they are looking at the wrong statistics. They are stating the number of deaths per number of infected... but what you need to focus on is the number of deaths per FINAL OUTCOME. That can only happen when individuals are deemed recovered, or DEAD. With an average sickness period being 32 days, very few cases Outside of China have been deemed finalized. Of those cases, 94% have been deemed recovered, while 6% have an outcome of DEAD. That is a staggering statistic.
Just to be clear on my part. The 32 day time was for people who were hospitalized. They spent 32 days in the hospital. Others who have mild cases and recover at home I have not seen any time frame for how long that takes. Just guessing, but would think that would be less time than 32 days.
Otherwise your point is accurate.
trollInteresting. I actually don't remember anything about the H1N1. Not very impressive I guess.
Those numbers of 13,000 dead out of 60 million infected comes out to a death rate of 0.0002% Normal flu is listed as around 0.1%
Currently reported COVID-19 numbers this morning are at 4359 deaths out of around 120,000 confirmed infections. That comes out to 0.036% which is 36 times worse than the flu and way worse than H1N1
Italy is reporting current death rate of 8% and mostly because of elderly population and health system getting overwhelmed and not able to treat all patients.
US has an abundance of Boomers.........YIKES
The problem with the numbers is that this disease is so new, only been going for a couple months. So 4359 worldwide deaths is not much. Until time passes and you hit 1 million cases and then you have 36,000 deaths at current rates.
How many do you have a couple months later when you have 10 million cases worldwide. The numbers just get staggering if it doesn't slow down or get brought under control.
If we had 60 million infected like with the H1N1 we are looking at 2 million+ dead.
This disease looks more like the 1918 Flu rather than the normal yearly flu.
Hospitals are already struggling with normal flu cases. Adding this new disease can possibly overwhelm the system and cause unnecessary deaths from people not being able to get treatment. That is one reason officials are taking measures to cancel and quarantine things. Trying to slow down the spread of the disease to allow the system to cope.
Thank goodness this virus doesn't spread over keyboards and the internet. We'd all be dead soon.
Stay safe.
Everyone is going to get this eventually and most will recover, sounds like 20% of people will need to have hospital care and the rest mild to no symptoms. The cancellations etc. are slowing down the inevitable and allowing time to prepare to care for the high risk people who will need hospital care. People in the high risk group or who work or live with people in the high risk group for sure would be wise to try and stay clear of infection as long as they can, time will potentially buy better treatment options. Obviously even if not high risk getting this would hamper the ability of a high level athlete to train and perform for a while so they would be well served to avoid as well.
Humidity does reduce virus infectivity in general so I would assume it would have an impact here as well. The Philippines is a densely populated and hot and humid country very close to China with a lot of travel between and less than ideal medical care and they have had more limited and slower spread than you would think would be the case although it is still increasing there.
Humidity does reduce virus infectivity in general so I would assume it would have an impact here as well. The Philippines is a densely populated and hot and humid country very close to China with a lot of travel between and less than ideal medical care and they have had more limited and slower spread than you would think would be the case although it is still increasing there.
Small correction. Based on the numbers you listed, the mortality rate for H1N1 is 0.02%, and that of the COVID-19 is 3.6%. I'm not familiar with the H1N1 situation, but that of COVID-19 is in line with what's being reported.Interesting. I actually don't remember anything about the H1N1. Not very impressive I guess.
Those numbers of 13,000 dead out of 60 million infected comes out to a death rate of 0.0002% Normal flu is listed as around 0.1%
Currently reported COVID-19 numbers this morning are at 4359 deaths out of around 120,000 confirmed infections. That comes out to 0.036% which is 36 times worse than the flu and way worse than H1N1
Italy is reporting current death rate of 8% and mostly because of elderly population and health system getting overwhelmed and not able to treat all patients.
US has an abundance of Boomers.........YIKES
The problem with the numbers is that this disease is so new, only been going for a couple months. So 4359 worldwide deaths is not much. Until time passes and you hit 1 million cases and then you have 36,000 deaths at current rates.
How many do you have a couple months later when you have 10 million cases worldwide. The numbers just get staggering if it doesn't slow down or get brought under control.
If we had 60 million infected like with the H1N1 we are looking at 2 million+ dead.
This disease looks more like the 1918 Flu rather than the normal yearly flu.
Hospitals are already struggling with normal flu cases. Adding this new disease can possibly overwhelm the system and cause unnecessary deaths from people not being able to get treatment. That is one reason officials are taking measures to cancel and quarantine things. Trying to slow down the spread of the disease to allow the system to cope.
Thank goodness this virus doesn't spread over keyboards and the internet. We'd all be dead soon.
Stay safe.
So keep students in their dorms to take online courses? Right.... Cause a virus won't spread in a dorm. The mass histeria over this is just nuts
the concept of college students "self-isolating" is idiotic, and shows how out of touch administrators can be. Ain't gonna happen.
But, I can tell you the goal of all of this. Slow down the spread of the virus until vaccines are tested and produced. Whether or not the steps being taken will accomplish that is TBD.
In either case the stats are going to be inflated because they are based off deaths per know infected person and there is always going to be a huge amount of infected people who are never known to be infected because they are asymptomatic or mildly ill and don't seek treatment.
I think most will stay home, especially since most U’s are tacking this on after spring break when most will be gone anyway.
Essentially you have students all over the world for spring break...rather than having them all descend on campus...they’re self-quarantining for 2-weeks.
No the dorms would be closed. They have been crystal clear about that. It is funny how everybody thinks they are so smart, but the doctors making these types of decisions are idiots.
One of the biggest concerns is not necessarily the mortality rate that folks keep referencing, but rather allocation of resources and scarcity of resources including isolation beds, surgical and N95 masks and ventilators. Slowing exponential spread of transmission will allow resources to be used more efficiently and provide better containment of the disease. While I've also been fairly dismissive of some of the hype, the more I've read about the spread of this illness and the challenges it presents to the US Health Care system I think that it's likely that these kinds of responses are appropriate.
Additionally, I think that the use of terms like the Wuhan Virus or the China Virus are harmful and completely unnecessary. Covid 19 or Coronavirus are the commonly-used and correct terms for the virus. It is only recently that these terms have popped up and there have been real-world consequences for folks with Asian background ranging from reports economic discrimination to outright violence. The continued use of these terms does nothing to help combat the spread of the virus and almost certainly increases xenophobia and discrimination against Asian-Americans.
Additionally, I think that the use of terms like the Wuhan Virus or the China Virus are harmful and completely unnecessary. Covid 19 or Coronavirus are the commonly-used and correct terms for the virus. It is only recently that these terms have popped up and there have been real-world consequences for folks with Asian background ranging from reports economic discrimination to outright violence. The continued use of these terms does nothing to help combat the spread of the virus and almost certainly increases xenophobia and discrimination against Asian-Americans.
this is correct, at indoor venues humidity will be high and lead to much less transmission, pulling spectators will only create a lower humidity environment and increase the odds of it spreading. Medical geniuses making decisions to go spectatorless
Calling it the Wuhan Virus (the place it actually originated) is harmful?!?!? GTFO. UNREAL
Here's an interesting article addressing the lessons learned from H1N1 and applicability to the current situation.
Additionally, I want to note that while I'm not an epidemiologist, I've been an employee at U of I Hospitals and Clinics for 20+ years and the Hospital-wide response is greater than I've previously seen. Epidemiologists and leadership are taking COVID 19 very seriously and I think we should too. I'd urge folks to ignore the politicians (on both sides of the aisle) and pay attention to what the medical professionals say.
Additionally, I want to note that while I'm not an epidemiologist, I've been an employee at U of I Hospitals and Clinics for 20+ years and the Hospital-wide response is greater than I've previously seen. Epidemiologists and leadership are taking COVID 19 very seriously and I think we should too. I'd urge folks to ignore the politicians (on both sides of the aisle) and pay attention to what the medical professionals say.
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Still going. Lets see if the virus likes the amount of alcohol that will be in my system for 4 days.
The CDC, WHO, and Johns Hopkins are the only media anyone should be following in this regard, and the only places to be getting medical advice
I work in Bellevue, WA (directly adjacent town to Kirkland, WA which is the epicenter of the outbreak). Governor Inslee is implementing a mandate against groups larger than 250 people assembling. I'm growing very skeptical of the 40,000 plus of us congregating in US Bank. This sucks.
Huh? Wtf is wrong with you, man? Your recommendations are exactly opposite of the experts’ advice.
steve Wozniak says he was likely patient zero in Washington.
no. Not all from an Egyptian cruise.
This is sadly quite common. If you don’t understand science, believe it is just fake news.
It’s got a fu€king name. What’s your problem?
Check your math. 13,000 deaths divided by 60,000,000 (million) infections is .0002166 or .0002 as I stated. I think you might have used 600,000 and that gives you the .02 you came up with.
Actually it has many names and none of them are harmful in any way. Calling the China virus the Wuhan virus harms no one. Calling COVID 19 the corona virus harms no one. Calling the Hawkeyes the Hawks harms no one. Sorry I refuse to join the “we must be offended by something” culture that seems to be growing sadly.
Ask Corona Beer how their sales are doing. It’s because it’s natural to make associations as ridiculous as they may be. If possibly one of the worst pandemics in a generation originated at the University of Iowa would you think it would be of no consequence if everyone called it the Iowa Hawkeye Flu of 2020? Would people avoid those with Hawkeye gear? Would it hurt enrollment? Now apply that feeling to an entire country of people who already have to deal with xenophobia and marginalization.
