D1 Baseball Predicts Iowa 5th in B1G in 2021. On May 6, 2019 IOWA ranked #24 (was Great Season despite 1-7 Finish). 2020 Season Cut Short by Covid
- Thread starter Franisdaman
- Start date
Yeah the thing I look at is specific predictions and the RPI that goes with it. I try to look at ones that seem realistic.
Updated D1 Bracket has Iowa as a 3 vs 2 Baylor in #1 overall seed Arkansas’s regional. Also, Nebraska is a regional host. How about Iowa vs Nebraska for the CWS?! Indiana is last five in. Also of note, Maryland in first five out.
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D1Baseball Projected Field Of 64: April 27 • D1Baseball
The latest projections have some notable movements with Texas moving in as a top eight national seed, and Nebraska, Pittsburgh and Charlotte becoming Top 16s.
D1Baseball Projected Field Of 64: April 27 • D1Baseball
The latest projections have some notable movements with Texas moving in as a top eight national seed, and Nebraska, Pittsburgh and Charlotte becoming Top 16s.d1baseball.com
they just need to win consistently and not get into any slumps/losing streaks.
I will say it again. On May 6, 2019, everything was great with Iowa baseball. They were ranked 24th in the country and we were on our way to the NCAA Tournament. And then the wheels fell off, with Iowa losing 7 of 8 and missing the NCAA Tournament.
Baseball America continues to only project 3 B1G teams making the NCAA Tournament.
This time it is Iowa, Michigan and Nebraska.
FIRST 4 OUT: Indiana
Next 4 OUT: Maryland
The full story:
www.baseballamerica.com
This time it is Iowa, Michigan and Nebraska.
FIRST 4 OUT: Indiana
Next 4 OUT: Maryland
The full story:
2021 NCAA Baseball Tournament Projected Field Of 64 (4/28/21)
Updating our projected NCAA Tournament field with Selection Monday just over a month away.
www.baseballamerica.com
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Iowa's and IU's RPI's did not move much.
B1G Rankings
May 3, RPI
Current....Previous
Rank.........Rank
Current B1G Standings (thanks @Alum-Ni ):
1. Indiana (20-9)
2. Nebraska (20-10)
3. Michigan (21-11)
4. Iowa (19-13)
4. Maryland (19-13)
...................................................
6. Rutgers (17-13)
7. Ohio State (17-14)
B1G Rankings
May 3, RPI
Current....Previous
Rank.........Rank
| 40 | 38 | Iowa | Big Ten | 19-13 | 7-5 | 5-5 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 60 | 54 | Ohio St. | Big Ten | 17-14 | 2-7 | 5-3 | 10-4 | 0-0 |
| 62 | 110 | Rutgers | Big Ten | 17-13 | 12-6 | 1-1 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| 85 | 49 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 20-10 | 9-3 | 5-3 | 6-4 | 0-0 |
| 92 | 72 | Maryland | Big Ten | 19-13 | 5-5 | 3-5 | 11-3 | 0-0 |
| 93 | 91 | Michigan | Big Ten | 21-11 | 6-2 | 10-4 | 5-5 | 0-0 |
| 113 | 127 | Indiana | Big Ten | 20-9 | 6-6 | 1-1 | 13-2 | 0-0 |
| 159 | 172 | Penn St. | Big Ten | 12-18 | 4-8 | 3-3 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| 163 | 164 | Purdue | Big Ten | 11-20 | 5-5 | 4-8 | 2-7 | 0-0 |
| 173 | 193 | Illinois | Big Ten | 15-16 | 7-4 | 4-6 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| 198 | 210 | Northwestern | Big Ten | 12-16 | 4-6 | 6-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| 254 | 230 | Michigan St. | Big Ten | 12-20 | 3-7 | 5-7 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| 275 | 271 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 4-26 | 0-13 | 0-0 | 4-13 |
Current B1G Standings (thanks @Alum-Ni ):
1. Indiana (20-9)
2. Nebraska (20-10)
3. Michigan (21-11)
4. Iowa (19-13)
4. Maryland (19-13)
...................................................
6. Rutgers (17-13)
7. Ohio State (17-14)
First Place Indiana cracks the D1BASEBALL.COM TOP 25
Through Games MAY. 2, 2021
Dropped out: Nebraska, UC Irvine
Through Games MAY. 2, 2021
| RANK | TEAM | OVERALL RECORD | PREVIOUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkansas | 34-8 | 1 |
| 2 | Vanderbilt | 32-9 | 2 |
| 3 | TCU | 33-10 | 5 |
| 4 | Mississippi State | 32-10 | 6 |
| 5 | Tennessee | 34-11 | 4 |
| 6 | Texas | 35-11 | 3 |
| 7 | Notre Dame | 24-8 | 8 |
| 8 | Texas Tech | 30-11 | 11 |
| 9 | Arizona | 30-11 | 12 |
| 10 | Florida | 30-13 | 14 |
| 11 | Oregon | 27-11 | 9 |
| 12 | Ole Miss | 31-12 | 19 |
| 13 | East Carolina | 30-9 | 10 |
| 14 | Louisiana Tech | 32-11 | 16 |
| 15 | Louisville | 23-14 | 7 |
| 16 | Stanford | 24-9 | 18 |
| 17 | Pittsburgh | 20-11 | 17 |
| 18 | Florida State | 23-16 | 20 |
| 19 | South Carolina | 26-15 | 13 |
| 20 | Southern Miss | 29-14 | 23 |
| 21 | Gonzaga | 27-13 | 21 |
| 22 | Old Dominion | 31-11 | 25 |
| 23 | Charlotte | 31-14 | 15 |
| 24 | Indiana | 20-9 | NR |
| 25 | UCLA | 25-14 | NR |
Dropped out: Nebraska, UC Irvine
D1 Baseball's Latest NCAA Tournament Projection
May 4, 2021
4 B1G Teams are in:
Indiana
Michigan
Nebraska
IOWA (last 5 in)
FIRST FIVE OUT:
Maryland, Georgia Southern, Rutgers, Virginia, Kentucky
LAST FIVE IN:
Oklahoma State, Georgia, Iowa, Tulane, San Diego
Bids by conference:
ACC (9),
SEC (8),
Pac 12 (6),
Big 12 (5),
Big Ten (4),
Conference USA (4),
American (2),
WCC (2),
Missouri Valley (2),
Big West (2)
The Details:
d1baseball.com
cc: @AuroraHawk @Alum-Ni
Projected Field Of 64
May 4, 2021
4 B1G Teams are in:
Indiana
Michigan
Nebraska
IOWA (last 5 in)
FIRST FIVE OUT:
Maryland, Georgia Southern, Rutgers, Virginia, Kentucky
LAST FIVE IN:
Oklahoma State, Georgia, Iowa, Tulane, San Diego
Bids by conference:
ACC (9),
SEC (8),
Pac 12 (6),
Big 12 (5),
Big Ten (4),
Conference USA (4),
American (2),
WCC (2),
Missouri Valley (2),
Big West (2)
The Details:
Projected Field Of 64: May 4 • D1Baseball
Our latest projections are out, and while Arizona moves in as a top-eight national seed, there are a whopping four new regional hosts in our latest projections.
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As you know, since Feb 4 D1 Baseball has written that the B1G is a 4 NCAA Tournament bid league. I quoted that Feb 4 post above, in case you had forgotten about it.
Feb 4 Projected regional teams (4): Michigan, Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State
May 4 Projected regional teams (4): Michigan, Indiana, Nebraska, Iowa
I am hoping Iowa finishes strong and creates some separation so that they are at least the clear #4 team in the B1G. IF they do that, I think they make the NCAA Tournament.
cc: @KyleHuesmann @BigOHawk @AuroraHawk
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Good work Franny, was going to post this last night. PSU has won 4 in a row and despite record is no pushover and as we've seen, anything can and will happen in baseball. One bad inning will torpedo the game.D1 Baseball's Latest NCAA Tournament Projection
Projected Field Of 64
May 4, 2021
4 B1G Teams are in:
Indiana
Michigan
Nebraska
IOWA (last 5 in)
FIRST FIVE OUT:
Maryland, Georgia Southern, Rutgers, Virginia, Kentucky
LAST FIVE IN:
Oklahoma State, Georgia, Iowa, Tulane, San Diego
Bids by conference:
ACC (9),
SEC (8),
Pac 12 (6),
Big 12 (5),
Big Ten (4),
Conference USA (4),
American (2),
WCC (2),
Missouri Valley (2),
Big West (2)
The Details:
cc: @AuroraHawk @Alum-NiProjected Field Of 64: May 4 • D1Baseball
Our latest projections are out, and while Arizona moves in as a top-eight national seed, there are a whopping four new regional hosts in our latest projections.
Maryland finishes the year with 3 @Mich and 3 @home vs Indiana so we have a good chance to get some separation and as noted B10 should be a 4 bid league if the gap between 4th -5th place is at least 2 games IMO.
Iowa needs Maryland to drop a game to Illinois this weekend, it’d also be nice if Nebraska or Michigan tanked.
@BigOHawk @Alum-Ni @AuroraHawk @IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life @KyleHuesmann
4 B1G Teams make Baseball America's May 5 Projected Field of 64
Indiana
Nebraska
Michigan
Iowa (Last 4 in)
Tulane
Iowa
Georgia
Virginia
Kentucky
North Carolina
Georgia Southern
Maryland
Washington State
The full story & Full Field of 64:
www.baseballamerica.com
4 B1G Teams make Baseball America's May 5 Projected Field of 64
Indiana
Nebraska
Michigan
Iowa (Last 4 in)
Last Four In
Oklahoma StateTulane
Iowa
Georgia
First Four Out
San DiegoVirginia
Kentucky
North Carolina
Next Four Out
RutgersGeorgia Southern
Maryland
Washington State
The full story & Full Field of 64:
2021 NCAA Baseball Tournament Projected Field Of 64 (5/5/21)
Updating our projected NCAA Tournament field with less than a month to go until Selection Monday.
www.baseballamerica.com
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At this point we obviously want Iowa to make a regional, doesn’t matter who or where. You want to talk about as good of a one two punch for starting pitchers. Vanderbilt has Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. Leiter is the #1 draft prospect, Rocker is #3.
Great points.
And speaking of anything can happen in baseball....
Hell, look at my damn Minnesota Twins last night.
They are at home and took a 3-1 lead into the top of the 9th. They gave up 2 runs, of course, and then don't score in the bottom of the 9th.
In the top of the 10th they give up a 3 run home run and end up losing 6-3.
A for sure win turned into another disastrous loss.
The next two are very tricky. Illinois just went 2-2 over the weekend vs Michigan. Granted, I think Illinois won both of the 7 inning games but they count.
Seems to me that both Baseball America and d1 Baseball are convinced at this point that the B1G is good enough to get four bids and that, as of right now, Iowa is the best of the Iowa/Maryland/Rutgers "gang." Since Iowa has gone 6-2 against the other two, I like where they stand.
I go back to my post earlier in the week. 7-5 and the Hawkeyes are in trouble. 9-3 and better and the Hawkeyes are dancing. 8-4 is the potential "tipping point." I still like their chances - particularly when we can reasonably expect that, due to head-to-head match-ups, Nebraska, Indiana and Michigan have some losses on the horizon. If Iowa goes 8-4, I think that we will see them finish in no worse than a tie for third place. That should be good enough to earn a ticket to the dance.
I go back to my post earlier in the week. 7-5 and the Hawkeyes are in trouble. 9-3 and better and the Hawkeyes are dancing. 8-4 is the potential "tipping point." I still like their chances - particularly when we can reasonably expect that, due to head-to-head match-ups, Nebraska, Indiana and Michigan have some losses on the horizon. If Iowa goes 8-4, I think that we will see them finish in no worse than a tie for third place. That should be good enough to earn a ticket to the dance.
8-4 concerns me with the RPI, especially if the losses are at home. 9-3 does as well if they all come at home.
8-4 puts Iowa at 27-17.
I agree that RPI could fluctuate wildly depending upon from where the wins and losses are coming.
Indiana is at 20-9. 12 of their remaining 14 games are against Nebraska, Michigan, Rutgers and Maryland - the remaining 2 are against OSU.
Michigan is at 20-9. 9 of their remaining 12 games are against Indiana, Maryland and Nebraska - the remainder are against Michigan State.
Nebraska is at 20-10. 9 of their remaining 14 games are against Michigan, Indiana and Rutgers - the remaining 5 involve PSU and Northwestern.
Let's give Indiana two wins against OSU. That would put them at 22-9. They would have to go 5-7 against Nebraska, Michigan, Rutgers and Maryland to get their record to 27-16 (one-half game better than if Iowa finishes 8-4). Eminently doable. But . . . not a lot of margin for error.
Let's give Michigan 2 wins out of 3 against their arch-rival MSU. That puts them at 22-10.
They would have to go 4-5 against Indiana, Maryland and Nebraska to get their record to 26-15 (one-half game better than if Iowa finishes 8-4). Again - Eminently doable. But . . . not a lot of margin for error. (And, IMO, Michigan may be the one team in the top 5 of the B1G that is struggling the most)
Let's give Nebraska 4 out of 5 wins against PSU and Northwestern. That puts them at 24-11. They would have to go 4-5 against Michigan, Indiana and Rutgers to get their record to 28-16 (one game better than if Iowa finishes 8-4). Again - Eminently doable. But . . . not a lot of margin for error.
Let's say that one of the three teams above Iowa gets really hot over the next few weeks. Given the head to head match-ups, that would necessarily mean that at least one if not two of the teams above Iowa will be adding to their loss column.
In my mind, you are going to see one of two scenarios:
Scenario #1 - One team catches fire and runs away with the B1G championship. That would victimize at least one if not two of the other top 3 teams. That would open the door for an 8-4 Iowa team to pass one or two teams in the standings.
Scenario #2 - Michigan, Nebraska, Indiana end up beating the hell out of one another and essentially play about .500 ball head-to-head. If that happens, I don't envision an 8-4 Iowa team falling in the B1G standings. Instead, I think that the race will tighten up and Iowa will be within a game or two of the B1G title.
Under either scenario, I see the B1G getting 4 teams in and Iowa being one of those 4 teams.
My "dream?"
Indiana goes 7-7 (2-2 against Nebraska; 1-1 against Rutgers; 2-1 against Michigan; 1-1 against OSU and 1-2 against Maryland) and ends up 27-16.
Michigan goes 6-6 (2-1 against MSU; 1-2 against Indiana; 1-2 against Maryland; 2-1 against Nebraska) and ends up 26-15.
Nebraska goes 7-7 (2-2 against Indiana; 1-2 against Michigan; 1-1 against Rutgers; 2-1 against Northwestern; 1-1 against OSU) and ends up 27-17.
Maryland goes 8-4 (2-1 against Illinois; 2-1 against Purdue; 2-1 against Michigan; 2-1 against Indiana) and ends up 27-17.
Iowa goes 9-3 and ends up 28-16. Conference champs.
Iowa just needs to take care of business and hang some Ws over this weekend. If they can somehow get a sweep over PSU, there will be a lot of pressure on teams ahead of them (and on Maryland).
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Great info and analysis, I like this line of thinking! Are ALL regional games televised or just some? Seems like in years past I've only seen the super regionals on TV. Just imagine if P Dreyer was healthy this year...sigh...well, as most college baseball teams say, it takes a fair amount of luck, scheduling power and a heckuva season to get to the CWS, maybe someday I'll see the Hawks in the CWS in Omaha! Maybe we for a Super Regional first!
If Dreyer was healthy and at full strength, I'm thoroughly convinced that Iowa would be atop the B1G standings right now and the odds-on favorite to be the conference champion.
Dreyer's injury and Leonard's regression from superstar relief pitcher to mediocrity are probably the two most frustrating aspects of this season for me.
Dreyer has battled injuries his whole college career it seems like. It’s disappointing. I can’t explain Leonard’s regression. If the game is on the line, it’s almost like a guarantee he is going to implode. It’s gotta be mental right?
Do not underestimate tOSU with Burhenn and Lonsway as their 1/2 pitchers. Pretty damn good combo there.
Week 11 Stock Report: Breaking Down Races For Hosts, At-Larges • D1Baseball
Arizona and Florida are among the teams that helped their stock over the last week, moving up in our latest projection for the top 16 seeds. Aaron Fitt breaks down the races for top-eight seeds, hosts and at-large spots.
Week 11 Stock Report: Breaking Down Races For Hosts, At-Larges
by Aaron Fitt, D1Baseball.com
This time of year, a hefty majority of all questions submitted in our weekly college chat, as well as those sent via e-mail or Twitter, center around the battle for postseason positioning. Our readers want to know how the races for national seeds, host sites and at-large bids are shaping up—so it’s time for our weekly Stock Report feature. Every Wednesday, we’ll examine how the postseason picture has shifted over the previous week. This analysis is intended to complement our weekly NCAA tournament field of 64 projection, which was put together in a conference call with Kendall Rogers, Mark Etheridge and me on Monday night.
Below, we’ll look at who’s in, who’s out, who’s on the bubble for at-large spots, hosts and national seeds. This discussion is weighted more toward performance to date and remaining schedule than projection based on talent, but it’s also not intended to show exactly what the field would look like if the season ended today. We’re still looking ahead, and we’re still taking talent and expected performance down the stretch into consideration when putting together our forecasts.
During this discussion, we will reference the RPI Rankings through Tuesday’s games, even though this field was constructed on Monday based on RPI data through Sunday’s games. And we’ll make use of records against the top 25, 50 or 100 in the RPI using the D1Baseball Nitty Gritty Report (also through Tuesday’s action).
We’ll get to at-large chances in a bit, but let’s start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals through the first 11 weeks of the season:
.
.
.
Regional Hosts
Nebraska had moved into a host spot last week, and then it got swept at home by Rutgers, dropping it right back out of the top 16. We are starting to get the impression that there won’t be enough separation between the top Big Ten team and everybody else to warrant a host spot in that conference this year. Indiana is currently in the catbird seat at 20-9, but Michigan (21-11) and Nebraska (20-10) are right there with the Hoosiers, and if nobody can pull away this weekend, all of them could get left out of the top 20 pool.
================================
Tournament Bids
BIG TEN (4 bids)
Safely In: Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska
On the Bubble (In): Iowa
On the Bubble (Out): Rutgers, Maryland, Ohio State
No change from last week. Typical caveat here: the Big Ten is only playing conference games, so its useless to compare RPIs to teams from other conferences or to the typical RPI benchmarks necessary for at-large bids. All that matters here are the records and head-to-head results. There are currently seven teams with winning records in the league, and all of them are in the hunt, but this will just have to play itself out. For now, we've got the top four teams in the standings in our field, with Indiana (20-9), Michigan (21-11) and Nebraska (20-10) leading the way. Iowa and Maryland are tied at 19-13, but the Hawkeyes get the nod over the Terrapins by virtue of winning three of the four meetings between the teams. Maryland's fortunes will ultimately be determined over the final two weekends, with series at Michigan and vs. Indiana. Right now, the Terps are a little short of quality wins against the top teams in the conference; their best series win is against 17-14 Ohio State. Maryland has also split a four-game set against Rutgers, which has climbed a tick ahead of the Terps in our pecking order after winning back-to-back road series at Michigan and Nebraska. Rutgers is 17-13 in the league, which puts its squarely on the bubble, but it is doing a nice job moving on up in the standings after a slow start. This weekend offers yet another crucial opportunity for Rutgers to pad its resume, with two games against Nebraska and two against Indiana in Piscataway. A split in those four games might be enough to land the Knights on the right side of the bubble, and winning three of the four would certainly do it.
Thanks for posting this, all it would take is a really bad weekend or two for the safely in teams not to be in. The situation in the conference is very fluid at this point with how tight it is.Week 11 Stock Report: Breaking Down Races For Hosts, At-Larges • D1Baseball
Arizona and Florida are among the teams that helped their stock over the last week, moving up in our latest projection for the top 16 seeds. Aaron Fitt breaks down the races for top-eight seeds, hosts and at-large spots.
Week 11 Stock Report: Breaking Down Races For Hosts, At-Larges
by Aaron Fitt, D1Baseball.com
This time of year, a hefty majority of all questions submitted in our weekly college chat, as well as those sent via e-mail or Twitter, center around the battle for postseason positioning. Our readers want to know how the races for national seeds, host sites and at-large bids are shaping up—so it’s time for our weekly Stock Report feature. Every Wednesday, we’ll examine how the postseason picture has shifted over the previous week. This analysis is intended to complement our weekly NCAA tournament field of 64 projection, which was put together in a conference call with Kendall Rogers, Mark Etheridge and me on Monday night.
Below, we’ll look at who’s in, who’s out, who’s on the bubble for at-large spots, hosts and national seeds. This discussion is weighted more toward performance to date and remaining schedule than projection based on talent, but it’s also not intended to show exactly what the field would look like if the season ended today. We’re still looking ahead, and we’re still taking talent and expected performance down the stretch into consideration when putting together our forecasts.
During this discussion, we will reference the RPI Rankings through Tuesday’s games, even though this field was constructed on Monday based on RPI data through Sunday’s games. And we’ll make use of records against the top 25, 50 or 100 in the RPI using the D1Baseball Nitty Gritty Report (also through Tuesday’s action).
We’ll get to at-large chances in a bit, but let’s start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals through the first 11 weeks of the season:
.
.
.
Regional Hosts
Nebraska had moved into a host spot last week, and then it got swept at home by Rutgers, dropping it right back out of the top 16. We are starting to get the impression that there won’t be enough separation between the top Big Ten team and everybody else to warrant a host spot in that conference this year. Indiana is currently in the catbird seat at 20-9, but Michigan (21-11) and Nebraska (20-10) are right there with the Hoosiers, and if nobody can pull away this weekend, all of them could get left out of the top 20 pool.
================================
Tournament Bids
BIG TEN (4 bids)
Safely In: Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska
On the Bubble (In): Iowa
On the Bubble (Out): Rutgers, Maryland, Ohio State
No change from last week. Typical caveat here: the Big Ten is only playing conference games, so its useless to compare RPIs to teams from other conferences or to the typical RPI benchmarks necessary for at-large bids. All that matters here are the records and head-to-head results. There are currently seven teams with winning records in the league, and all of them are in the hunt, but this will just have to play itself out. For now, we've got the top four teams in the standings in our field, with Indiana (20-9), Michigan (21-11) and Nebraska (20-10) leading the way. Iowa and Maryland are tied at 19-13, but the Hawkeyes get the nod over the Terrapins by virtue of winning three of the four meetings between the teams. Maryland's fortunes will ultimately be determined over the final two weekends, with series at Michigan and vs. Indiana. Right now, the Terps are a little short of quality wins against the top teams in the conference; their best series win is against 17-14 Ohio State. Maryland has also split a four-game set against Rutgers, which has climbed a tick ahead of the Terps in our pecking order after winning back-to-back road series at Michigan and Nebraska. Rutgers is 17-13 in the league, which puts its squarely on the bubble, but it is doing a nice job moving on up in the standings after a slow start. This weekend offers yet another crucial opportunity for Rutgers to pad its resume, with two games against Nebraska and two against Indiana in Piscataway. A split in those four games might be enough to land the Knights on the right side of the bubble, and winning three of the four would certainly do it.
Iowa Baseball Team Set For Stretch Run - KIWA Radio
Iowa City, Iowa — Iowa baseball coach Rick Heller believes the Hawkeyes control their own postseason fate as they enter the final month of the season. Currently tied in fourth […]
kiwaradio.com
Week 11 Stock Report: Breaking Down Races For Hosts, At-Larges • D1Baseball
Arizona and Florida are among the teams that helped their stock over the last week, moving up in our latest projection for the top 16 seeds. Aaron Fitt breaks down the races for top-eight seeds, hosts and at-large spots.
Week 11 Stock Report: Breaking Down Races For Hosts, At-Larges
by Aaron Fitt, D1Baseball.com
This time of year, a hefty majority of all questions submitted in our weekly college chat, as well as those sent via e-mail or Twitter, center around the battle for postseason positioning. Our readers want to know how the races for national seeds, host sites and at-large bids are shaping up—so it’s time for our weekly Stock Report feature. Every Wednesday, we’ll examine how the postseason picture has shifted over the previous week. This analysis is intended to complement our weekly NCAA tournament field of 64 projection, which was put together in a conference call with Kendall Rogers, Mark Etheridge and me on Monday night.
Below, we’ll look at who’s in, who’s out, who’s on the bubble for at-large spots, hosts and national seeds. This discussion is weighted more toward performance to date and remaining schedule than projection based on talent, but it’s also not intended to show exactly what the field would look like if the season ended today. We’re still looking ahead, and we’re still taking talent and expected performance down the stretch into consideration when putting together our forecasts.
During this discussion, we will reference the RPI Rankings through Tuesday’s games, even though this field was constructed on Monday based on RPI data through Sunday’s games. And we’ll make use of records against the top 25, 50 or 100 in the RPI using the D1Baseball Nitty Gritty Report (also through Tuesday’s action).
We’ll get to at-large chances in a bit, but let’s start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals through the first 11 weeks of the season:
.
.
.
Regional Hosts
Nebraska had moved into a host spot last week, and then it got swept at home by Rutgers, dropping it right back out of the top 16. We are starting to get the impression that there won’t be enough separation between the top Big Ten team and everybody else to warrant a host spot in that conference this year. Indiana is currently in the catbird seat at 20-9, but Michigan (21-11) and Nebraska (20-10) are right there with the Hoosiers, and if nobody can pull away this weekend, all of them could get left out of the top 20 pool.
================================
Tournament Bids
BIG TEN (4 bids)
Safely In: Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska
On the Bubble (In): Iowa
On the Bubble (Out): Rutgers, Maryland, Ohio State
No change from last week. Typical caveat here: the Big Ten is only playing conference games, so its useless to compare RPIs to teams from other conferences or to the typical RPI benchmarks necessary for at-large bids. All that matters here are the records and head-to-head results. There are currently seven teams with winning records in the league, and all of them are in the hunt, but this will just have to play itself out. For now, we've got the top four teams in the standings in our field, with Indiana (20-9), Michigan (21-11) and Nebraska (20-10) leading the way. Iowa and Maryland are tied at 19-13, but the Hawkeyes get the nod over the Terrapins by virtue of winning three of the four meetings between the teams. Maryland's fortunes will ultimately be determined over the final two weekends, with series at Michigan and vs. Indiana. Right now, the Terps are a little short of quality wins against the top teams in the conference; their best series win is against 17-14 Ohio State. Maryland has also split a four-game set against Rutgers, which has climbed a tick ahead of the Terps in our pecking order after winning back-to-back road series at Michigan and Nebraska. Rutgers is 17-13 in the league, which puts its squarely on the bubble, but it is doing a nice job moving on up in the standings after a slow start. This weekend offers yet another crucial opportunity for Rutgers to pad its resume, with two games against Nebraska and two against Indiana in Piscataway. A split in those four games might be enough to land the Knights on the right side of the bubble, and winning three of the four would certainly do it.
Yikes. Right now Iowa is considered the best of the 3 B1G bubble teams (Iowa, Maryland, Rutgers). So, there is not much separation between the 3 teams (Iowa is barely in, Maryland and Rutgers are barely out).
So, to me, it all comes down to these last 4 weekends. If Iowa does not take care of business against an easy schedule AND if Maryland and/or Rutgers impress with wins over the top teams in the conference, we could be in trouble. Maryland and/or Rutgers, based on how they do over these next 4 weekends, could move up to one of the last teams in and Iowa could move down to the one of the last teams out.
Just win, baby, and it will take care of itself.
I know head to head matters, and Iowa has the advantage in that aspect over Maryland and Rutgers, which is a good thing. What is the bad thing is that the 3 teams are considered pretty equal at this point in time and the next 4 weekends likely decides when team makes the NCAA Tournament and which 2 teams stay home.
I wondered when this would start happening...teams not caring or being careless? Teams not wanting to take that season ending loss which is what Minnesota would do to OSU?
Solution....Purdue vs Ohio State
Worry less about the RPI and more about Iowa being one of the 4 top teams in the B1G AND those 4 teams separating themselves from the mid-tier teams. Iowa needs to be in the group that finishes within 3-4 games of the B1G Champ and 3-4 games ahead of 5th place.
I see it completely differently than you. If the bubble teams in the B1G are Iowa, Maryland, and Rutger, Iowa is 3-1 against both those teams this season. Unless Iowa has a complete meltdown, head to head should trump any other metric this season. Iowa needs to keep winning and they will be in.
I mean, Anderson is the conference's biggest complainer.
i hope you are right and i hope that if the standings remain tight, head to head is what ultimately decides it.
My only concern is that the "experts" don't see much separation between Iowa, Maryland, and Rutgers right now. So, Iowa can't afford to stumble over their last remaining games. And if they do, both Maryland and Rutgers have a chance to make statements.
Rutgers has these 4 quality games remaining:
2 vs IU
2 vs Neb
Maryland has these 6 games that could help their resume:
3 vs Michigan
3 vs IU
Iowa missed a huge opportunity last weekend in Bloomington to make their statement. Now we need Neb, IU, and Mich to help out against Rutger, Maryland, and tOSU. I think if Iowa finishes 8-4 and wins their 4 remaining series, they are likely the right side of the bubble as the 4th B1G team. Anything 9-3 or better is even better. Lose one of the remaining series and all bets are off...
I agree to an extent, but the committee chair has already said they aren’t going to just disregard the RPI because the Big Ten and MAAC chose to do conference only.
Going into Friday's games, Iowa (one of last teams in), Maryland, and Rutgers were all considered NCAA Tournament bubble teams. Maryland and Rutgers were part of the last teams considered but not making the 64 team cut.
Indiana did Iowa a favor, beating Rutgers 8-3. Same can be said for the Illini, who beat Maryland 2-0.
Lets hope the separation of the Top 4 B1G teams from the rest of the pack continues.
Current Standings (thanks @Alum-Ni ):
1. Indiana (21-9)
2. Nebraska (20-10)
2. Michigan (22-11)
4. Iowa (20-13)
..............................................................................
5. Maryland (19-14)
6. Rutgers (17-14)
6. Ohio State (17-14)
8. Illinois (16-16)
9. Northwestern (12-16)
10. Penn State (12-19)
11. Michigan State (12-21)
12. Purdue (11-20)
13. Minnesota (4-26)
Games for Saturday, May 8:
Indiana at Rutgers
Nebraska vs. Indiana (at Piscataway, NJ)
Penn State at Iowa (DH)
Maryland at Illinois (DH)
Michigan at Michigan State
Cancelled (COVID)
Northwestern at Purdue
Ohio State at Minnesota
cc: @BigOHawk @KyleHuesmann @funnyfletcher @Cymonhawk @AuroraHawk
Indiana did Iowa a favor, beating Rutgers 8-3. Same can be said for the Illini, who beat Maryland 2-0.
Lets hope the separation of the Top 4 B1G teams from the rest of the pack continues.
Current Standings (thanks @Alum-Ni ):
1. Indiana (21-9)
2. Nebraska (20-10)
2. Michigan (22-11)
4. Iowa (20-13)
..............................................................................
5. Maryland (19-14)
6. Rutgers (17-14)
6. Ohio State (17-14)
8. Illinois (16-16)
9. Northwestern (12-16)
10. Penn State (12-19)
11. Michigan State (12-21)
12. Purdue (11-20)
13. Minnesota (4-26)
Games for Saturday, May 8:
Indiana at Rutgers
Nebraska vs. Indiana (at Piscataway, NJ)
Penn State at Iowa (DH)
Maryland at Illinois (DH)
Michigan at Michigan State
Cancelled (COVID)
Northwestern at Purdue
Ohio State at Minnesota
cc: @BigOHawk @KyleHuesmann @funnyfletcher @Cymonhawk @AuroraHawk
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