D1 Baseball Predicts Iowa 5th in B1G in 2021. On May 6, 2019 IOWA ranked #24 (was Great Season despite 1-7 Finish). 2020 Season Cut Short by Covid
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As you know, since Feb 4 D1 Baseball has written that the B1G is a 4 NCAA Tournament bid league. That is why I have always felt that RPI is only part of the discussion.
D1 Baseball's Feb 4 Projected regional teams (4): Michigan, Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State
D1 Baseball's May 4 Projected regional teams (4): Michigan, Indiana, Nebraska, Iowa
I am hoping Iowa finishes strong and creates some separation so that they are at least the clear #4 team in the B1G. IF they do that, I think they are one of the 4 B1G teams that make the NCAA Tournament.
The question for me is this, can Iowa get a sweep? They need one.
I’m not convinced 27-17 gets them in, which is a shame. I’m also not convinced if you go 4-2 at home against Illinois and PSU it gets you in. Of course I’m thinking of that from an RPI stand point. You go 2-1 at home against Illinois and you’re dropping another 10 spots.
I’m not convinced 27-17 gets them in, which is a shame. I’m also not convinced if you go 4-2 at home against Illinois and PSU it gets you in. Of course I’m thinking of that from an RPI stand point. You go 2-1 at home against Illinois and you’re dropping another 10 spots.
Not necessarily they only dropped 7 for the loss to PSU. Also if you can take 5/6 on the road to end the season you will get some points back
I still have nightmares of Iowa in 2018 going to NW after taking a series from OSU and losing two games against a bad Wildcat team. Effectively ending Iowa’s at-large chance.
And I have nightmares going back to May 6, 2019, when Iowa was ranked #24 in the nation. Then we finished that season 1-7 and didn't make the NCAA Tournament.
And this year, of course, we had a covid pause right before the season started and started off slow record wise. We just need to finish strong, in the top 4 in the B1G, and hope that Maryland and Rutgers slip.
Iowa was considered a bubble team last week & in the NCAA Tournament. Maryland & Rutgers were considered bubble teams but left out of the NCAA Tournament. Hopefully these head to heads work in our favor:
3-1 vs Maryland
3-1 vs Rutgers
3 B1G teams solidly in the NCAA Tournament:
2-3 vs Nebraska
1-2 vs IU
1-3 vs Michigan
The rest:
2-2 vs Ohio State
2-1 vs PSU
2-1 vs Purdue
3-0 vs Minnesota
2-0 vs Northwestern
21-14 Overall Record
Think about this, Michigan is 14-6 in quad four games. Iowa is 7-1. Yes, I know Iowa went 1-3 against Michigan but look at when that was. First weekend of the season, Covid shutdown until two days before.
Personally I think Michigan is getting way too much credit for the CWS run and that experts just figured they’d be good. So they were ranked most of the year, and so on.
I’d love for Iowa to have a shot at them now.
Yeah, RPI is really a non-factor for B1G teams
To an extent, the committee chair already told that guy from the OWH they weren’t going to completely disregard it just due to the B1G and MAAC playing conference only.
I am glad we are not Ohio State, which currently stands at 17-14.
They could have been 20-14 right now and just a 1/2 game behind Iowa and Maryland had the 3 game Minnesota series not been canceled due to covid within the MN program.
And their RPI? 2nd best in the B1G.
B1G Rankings
May 10, RPI
Current....Previous
Rank.........Rank
They could have been 20-14 right now and just a 1/2 game behind Iowa and Maryland had the 3 game Minnesota series not been canceled due to covid within the MN program.
And their RPI? 2nd best in the B1G.
B1G Rankings
May 10, RPI
Current....Previous
Rank.........Rank
| 55 | 42 | Iowa | Big Ten | 21-14 | 7-5 | 5-5 | 9-4 | 0-0 |
| 60 | 58 | Ohio St. | Big Ten | 17-14 | 2-7 | 5-3 | 10-4 | 0-0 |
| 75 | 86 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 22-11 | 10-3 | 6-4 | 6-4 | 0-0 |
| 80 | 63 | Rutgers | Big Ten | 17-16 | 12-6 | 1-1 | 4-9 | 0-0 |
| 84 | 112 | Indiana | Big Ten | 23-10 | 8-6 | 2-2 | 13-2 | 0-0 |
| 89 | 89 | Maryland | Big Ten | 21-14 | 7-6 | 3-5 | 11-3 | 0-0 |
| 105 | 90 | Michigan | Big Ten | 23-12 | 8-3 | 10-4 | 5-5 | 0-0 |
| 149 | 157 | Penn St. | Big Ten | 13-20 | 5-10 | 3-3 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| 173 | 164 | Purdue | Big Ten | 11-20 | 5-5 | 4-8 | 2-7 | 0-0 |
| 185 | 175 | Illinois | Big Ten | 16-18 | 7-4 | 4-6 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| 207 | 199 | Northwestern | Big Ten | 12-16 | 4-6 | 6-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| 252 | 253 | Michigan St. | Big Ten | 13-22 | 3-7 | 5-7 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| 276 | 275 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 4-26 | 0-13 | 0-0 | 4-13 | 0-0 |
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Luckily (for Iowa) Rutgers followed up their series win at Michigan and sweep at Nebby by going 0-3 so far in their pod with Indiana (0-2) and Nebby (0-1). Iowa is still tied with Maryland in the B1G standings and holds a 3-1 series advantage over the Terps but it would be nice to get some separation in the standings as well.
FWIW the Warren Nolan predicted Final B1G standings has a 4 way tie for 1st place. It has Iowa sweeping its next 2 series and dropping the final game at MSU to not win the conference outright. That would be a really fun yet heartbreaking way to end the season.
www.warrennolan.com
FWIW the Warren Nolan predicted Final B1G standings has a 4 way tie for 1st place. It has Iowa sweeping its next 2 series and dropping the final game at MSU to not win the conference outright. That would be a really fun yet heartbreaking way to end the season.
2021 Big Ten Baseball Predicted Conference Standings | WarrenNolan.com
Big Ten Conference Predicted Final Standings for College Baseball with predicted RPIs and conference RPI
Luckily (for Iowa) Rutgers followed up their series win at Michigan and sweep at Nebby by going 0-3 so far in their pod with Indiana (0-2) and Nebby (0-1). Iowa is still tied with Maryland in the B1G standings and holds a 3-1 series advantage over the Terps but it would be nice to get some separation in the standings as well.
FWIW the Warren Nolan predicted Final B1G standings has a 4 way tie for 1st place. It has Iowa sweeping its next 2 series and dropping the final game at MSU to not win the conference outright. That would be a really fun yet heartbreaking way to end the season.
2021 Big Ten Baseball Predicted Conference Standings | WarrenNolan.com
Big Ten Conference Predicted Final Standings for College Baseball with predicted RPIs and conference RPI
F it! Let’s just win out! Then there is no more speculation.
30-14 does look like nice record, i must say
Not to mention that might be enough to win the dang thing considering all 3 above have these games against each other. But I do think we're talking about 8-1 minimum for that.
Really interesting note about the D1Baseball Chat today.
JayPak: Not sure I get the love for Nebraska as a 2 seed or even an at-large team. With today’s win over Rutgers, the RPI, ELO, and ISR are in the high 60’s. What do the pundits like about the Huskers?
Kendall Rogers: Nebraska is a half-game out of first place in the Big Ten — that’s all that really matters since the Big Ten didn’t play non-conference games. The RPI means pretty much zilch in that league.
From the weekly Baseball America chat
NCAA Baseball Top 25 Rankings Chat (5/10/21)
Teddy Cahill chats about our updated Top 25 rankings at 2 p.m. ET.
www.baseballamerica.com
Keegan (Nebraska): If the top of the Big Ten continues to trade blows over the next couple of weeks, is it more likely to result in multiple Big Ten teams breaking into the rankings or for the conference to finish without a ranked team? And does it bode well for the conference's postseason outlook?
Teddy Cahill: The Big Ten champ is almost always in our final Top 25 of the regular season, so my guess is at least one of Indiana, Nebraska and Michigan is ranked on Memorial Day. As for additional teams, nothing happens in a vacuum, not even a conference playing conference-only games. So we'd weigh the second- and third-place teams against the other Top 25 contenders at the time. As for the postseaosn, I don't think it matters much. Those top three teams -- Indiana, Nebraska, Michigan -- have clear separation from the rest of the conference right now. As long as they maintain that, they're getting in and it's up to Iowa, Maryland, Ohio State and Rutgers to join them to get in the mix for the NCAA Tournament.
From the weekly Baseball America chat
NCAA Baseball Top 25 Rankings Chat (5/10/21)
Teddy Cahill chats about our updated Top 25 rankings at 2 p.m. ET.
Keegan (Nebraska): If the top of the Big Ten continues to trade blows over the next couple of weeks, is it more likely to result in multiple Big Ten teams breaking into the rankings or for the conference to finish without a ranked team? And does it bode well for the conference's postseason outlook?
Teddy Cahill: The Big Ten champ is almost always in our final Top 25 of the regular season, so my guess is at least one of Indiana, Nebraska and Michigan is ranked on Memorial Day. As for additional teams, nothing happens in a vacuum, not even a conference playing conference-only games. So we'd weigh the second- and third-place teams against the other Top 25 contenders at the time. As for the postseaosn, I don't think it matters much. Those top three teams -- Indiana, Nebraska, Michigan -- have clear separation from the rest of the conference right now. As long as they maintain that, they're getting in and it's up to Iowa, Maryland, Ohio State and Rutgers to join them to get in the mix for the NCAA
From the weekly Baseball America chat
NCAA Baseball Top 25 Rankings Chat (5/10/21)
Teddy Cahill chats about our updated Top 25 rankings at 2 p.m. ET.
Keegan (Nebraska): If the top of the Big Ten continues to trade blows over the next couple of weeks, is it more likely to result in multiple Big Ten teams breaking into the rankings or for the conference to finish without a ranked team? And does it bode well for the conference's postseason outlook?
Teddy Cahill: The Big Ten champ is almost always in our final Top 25 of the regular season, so my guess is at least one of Indiana, Nebraska and Michigan is ranked on Memorial Day. As for additional teams, nothing happens in a vacuum, not even a conference playing conference-only games. So we'd weigh the second- and third-place teams against the other Top 25 contenders at the time. As for the postseaosn, I don't think it matters much. Those top three teams -- Indiana, Nebraska, Michigan -- have clear separation from the rest of the conference right now. As long as they maintain that, they're getting in and it's up to Iowa, Maryland, Ohio State and Rutgers to join them to get in the mix for the NCAA Tournament.
I think he’s saying the conference is a three team league right now?
This leads me to believe that D1Baseball and Baseball America are fairly certain that the 4th place Big Ten team will make the tournament. Rutgers basically played themselves out of that, as they are 3.5 games behind Iowa/Maryland right now.From the weekly Baseball America chat
NCAA Baseball Top 25 Rankings Chat (5/10/21)
Teddy Cahill chats about our updated Top 25 rankings at 2 p.m. ET.
Keegan (Nebraska): If the top of the Big Ten continues to trade blows over the next couple of weeks, is it more likely to result in multiple Big Ten teams breaking into the rankings or for the conference to finish without a ranked team? And does it bode well for the conference's postseason outlook?
Teddy Cahill: The Big Ten champ is almost always in our final Top 25 of the regular season, so my guess is at least one of Indiana, Nebraska and Michigan is ranked on Memorial Day. As for additional teams, nothing happens in a vacuum, not even a conference playing conference-only games. So we'd weigh the second- and third-place teams against the other Top 25 contenders at the time. As for the postseaosn, I don't think it matters much. Those top three teams -- Indiana, Nebraska, Michigan -- have clear separation from the rest of the conference right now. As long as they maintain that, they're getting in and it's up to Iowa, Maryland, Ohio State and Rutgers to join them to get in the mix for the NCAA Tournament.
I agree BUT I sight unbalanced scheduling. If Iowa is one game behind Maryland yet went 3-1 against them, Maryland gets the bid?
2019 was bullshit. Yeah, Iowa has the bad finish but they took 2/3 from UCI and dropped like 5-10 spots in the RPI even though both were similar. They also couldn’t win a Sunday game the last two months of the year for some reason.
Assessing a tight Big Ten race
Six teams are fighting for what will likely be four NCAA Tournament spots. Where do the Hawkeyes stand?
Assessing a tight Big Ten race
Six teams are fighting for what will likely be four NCAA Tournament spots. Where do the Hawkeyes stand?iowa.rivals.com
Good, FREE Story, with great analysis. It will be an interesting 3 weeks, that's for sure!
IU, Nebraska, and Michigan will be playing each other over these next 3 weeks; all 3 teams are scheduled to play the full 44 game schedule. Can IU hold on to first place?
As you can see, Kyle wrote this: "In terms of [Iowa] getting an NCAA at-large bid, I would think three series wins would do the job (27-17 overall), but a sweep mixed in would make Selection Monday less stressful."
As I have noted several times in this thread, D1 Baseball, since February, has considered the B1G a 4 bid league. Iowa has the easier remaining schedule compared to Maryland and is 3-1 head to head. Both of these factors should get Iowa no worse than 4th in the B1G and an NCAA Tournament bid.
As Kyle wrote,
IU: Remaining Games: at Michigan (3) vs Illinois (1) vs Nebraska (2) vs Ohio St (2) at Maryland (3)
Neb: Remaining Games: vs Northwestern (3) at Indiana (2) vs Ohio St (2) vs Michigan (3)
Mich: Remaining Games: vs Indiana (3) vs Maryland (3) at Nebraska (3)
Iowa: Remaining Games: vs Illinois (3) at Northwestern (3) at Michigan State (3)
Maryland: Remaining Games: vs Purdue (3) at Michigan (3) vs Indiana (3)
Current B1G Standings (thanks @Alum-Ni ):
......................................................Games
.......................................................Back
1. Indiana (23-10, .697).................--
2. Nebraska (23-11, .676)............1/2
3. Michigan (23-12, .657)...............1
4. Iowa (21-14, .600)....................3
4. Maryland (21-14, .600)...........3
...................................................
6. Ohio State (17-14)
7. Rutgers (17-17)
8. Illinois (16-18)
9. Northwestern (12-16)
10. Penn State (13-20)
11. Michigan State (13-22)
12. Purdue (11-20)
13. Minnesota (4-26)
Games for Tuesday, May 11:
Ohio State at Purdue
Games for Friday, May 14:
Illinois at Iowa
Indiana at Michigan
Northwestern at Nebraska
Purdue at Maryland
Michigan State at Ohio State
Minnesota at Penn State
Rutgers is idle until Sat (vs MN); they then play a DH vs MN & PSU on Sun & then 1 game on Mon (vs PSU)
Keep an eye on tOSU, would really be beneficial if Purdue beat them today and MSU took one this weekend. I am not sure 27-17 would get it done.
I think if Iowa is in now and they win their last 4 series to close out the season (9 out of 10 overall), they should be in. It is interesting to hear different viewpoints from the college baseball writers. Kendall Rodgers at D1 thinks the B1G is a 4 bid league and basically has had that opinion all year. He likes Iowa as that 4th team. Teddy Cahill from Baseball America is less convinced the B1G is a 4 bid league although they have had Iowa in their last few projections.
Win the last three series and they are 27-17. I would hope that would be enough, but I think 28-16 would secure things.
Michigan better be careful or they could play their way out of a bid. As stated before they are getting a lot of credit for their CWS run, but if they lose their last 3 series and the standings end up looking something like this:
IU................29-14
Neb............29-15 (.5)
Iowa...........28-16 (1.5)
Maryland..26-18 (3.5)
Michigan...26-18 (3.5)
Does Maryland get the nod for the 4th spot or does the B1G turn into a 3 bid league? Michigan's RPI is 100+ and if they lose 3 series in a row it will only be worse plus a H2H loss to the Terps...
That would be interesting. I would probably guess it becomes a 3 bid league, but you could make an argument for 5. Would really depend on the other bubble teams.
Also Indiana added a midweek game vs Illinois, so they will get to 44 games. It’s a rain postponement reschedule.
Cahill likes to make a big deal that they got 63/64 right in the last actual tournament.
I certainly think the conference is deserving of five. It’s funny what conference only has done to who gets the bids. I remember years past where the 6-8 teams had a strong non conference, did just good enough in conference and they were discussed for at large bids.
Interesting tidbit from Teddy here trying to read the tea leaves from the lacrosse committee.
as @KyleHuesmann mentioned in the story, tOSU would have likely swept Minny over the weekend, which would have put that at 20-14 & right there with Iowa and Maryland.
Damn, the B1G standings are too bunched up!
Projected Field Of 64
May 11, 2021; 3:45PM CTD1 Baseball's updated bids by conference:
ACC (9),
SEC (9),
Pac 12 (6),
Big 12 (5),
Big Ten (5),
Conference USA (4),
American (2),
Missouri Valley (2)
The FIVE B1G Teams:
Indiana (2, playing at Notre Dame)
Nebraska (2, playing at Arkansas)
Michigan (2, playing at Texas)
Iowa (3, playing at Texas Tech)
Maryland (3, playing at Vanderbilt)
FIRST FIVE OUT:
Alabama, LSU, UC Santa Barbara, San Diego, Virginia
LAST FIVE IN:
Georgia, Kentucky, Tulane, Oklahoma State, Maryland
THE FULL STORY:
Projected Field Of 64: May 11 • D1Baseball
Our latest Field of 64 is out, and there's a brand new regional host, while the order of the top eight national seeds has changed.
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D1 Baseball now projecting 5 B1G bids is very good news....
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