You're probably right about their record. NE doesn't have enough shooting or defense in the paint, especially with the injuries and departures. But with 2 decent experienced PGs in Webster and Watson, and Morrow up front (remember recruiting him?), they could be a tough out some games- perhaps when McVeigh is shooting well.
DanL's Pre-B1G Basketball Lottsa Stuff Thread.
- Thread starter DanL53
- Start date
Northwestern:
Isiah Brown: PG, 6'2" 175 (FROSH)
*Bryant McIntosh: Combo Guard, 6'3", 185, 35.7 mpg, 13.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 6.7/2.4, .423, .824, .366 (JUNIOR)
Sanjay Lumpkin: SG, 6'6", 220, 23.7 mpg, 3.8 ppg, 5 rpg, .488, .684, .361 (RS SENIOR)
*Scottie Lindsey: SG, 6'5", 210, 18.9 mpg, 6.4 ppg, .436, .739, .409 (JUNIOR)
Jordan Ash: SG, 6'3", 190, Played Sparingly, (SOPH)
Nathan Taphorn: SF, 6'7", 215, 11.8 mpg, 4.9 ppg, (SENIOR)
*Victor Law: SF, 6'7", 205, Redshirted due to injury, frosh stats, 24.4 mpg, 7 ppg, 4.8 rpg, .387, .766, .355 (RS SOPH)
Gavin Skelly: PF, 6'8" 220, 12.5 mpg, 3.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg, .611, .644, .444 (JUNIOR)
*Aaron Falzon: PF, 6'8" 215, 24.6 mpg, 8.4 ppg, 2.3 rpg, .383, .717, .354 (SOPH)
Rapolis Ivanauskas: PF, 6'9", 210, Rivals #97, (FROSH)
*Derek Pardon: PF/C, 6'8", 235, 16.6 mpg, 6.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, .646, .529 (SOPH)
Barret Benson: C, 6'10", 240, Rivals #118, (FROSH)
Finished 8-10 last year. I have to say I like this team, Vic Law is back off of injury, and if the freshmen can add to the decent depth, this could be the first year Northwestern gets an NCAA invite. They held up in most statistical categories quite well and finished 78th according to Kenpom. This is no longer the cellar dweller Northwestern and frankly of the newer coaches, Miles, Groce, Pitino...Collins is actually earning his pay. A 112 million renovation to Welsh-Ryan Arena next year is going to help.
Isiah Brown: PG, 6'2" 175 (FROSH)
*Bryant McIntosh: Combo Guard, 6'3", 185, 35.7 mpg, 13.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 6.7/2.4, .423, .824, .366 (JUNIOR)
Sanjay Lumpkin: SG, 6'6", 220, 23.7 mpg, 3.8 ppg, 5 rpg, .488, .684, .361 (RS SENIOR)
*Scottie Lindsey: SG, 6'5", 210, 18.9 mpg, 6.4 ppg, .436, .739, .409 (JUNIOR)
Jordan Ash: SG, 6'3", 190, Played Sparingly, (SOPH)
Nathan Taphorn: SF, 6'7", 215, 11.8 mpg, 4.9 ppg, (SENIOR)
*Victor Law: SF, 6'7", 205, Redshirted due to injury, frosh stats, 24.4 mpg, 7 ppg, 4.8 rpg, .387, .766, .355 (RS SOPH)
Gavin Skelly: PF, 6'8" 220, 12.5 mpg, 3.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg, .611, .644, .444 (JUNIOR)
*Aaron Falzon: PF, 6'8" 215, 24.6 mpg, 8.4 ppg, 2.3 rpg, .383, .717, .354 (SOPH)
Rapolis Ivanauskas: PF, 6'9", 210, Rivals #97, (FROSH)
*Derek Pardon: PF/C, 6'8", 235, 16.6 mpg, 6.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, .646, .529 (SOPH)
Barret Benson: C, 6'10", 240, Rivals #118, (FROSH)
Finished 8-10 last year. I have to say I like this team, Vic Law is back off of injury, and if the freshmen can add to the decent depth, this could be the first year Northwestern gets an NCAA invite. They held up in most statistical categories quite well and finished 78th according to Kenpom. This is no longer the cellar dweller Northwestern and frankly of the newer coaches, Miles, Groce, Pitino...Collins is actually earning his pay. A 112 million renovation to Welsh-Ryan Arena next year is going to help.
I like Northwestern this year too. I'd put Collins as a top half coach in the conference.
Ohio State:
*Jaquan Lyle: Combo Guard, 6'5", 210, 29.7 mpg, 11.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 4.2/3.0, .397 ,.712, .252 (SOPH)
C.J. Jackson: PG, 6'1" 175, 2nd team Juco All-American from Eastern Florida. 16.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 4.4 apg (RS SOPH)
*Kam Williams: SG, 6'2" 175, 21.9 mpg, 8.3 ppg, .436, .846, .437 (JUNIOR)
*JaeSean Tate: ATHLETE, 6'4", 230, 29.0 mpg, 11.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg, .521, .518, .350 (JUNIOR)
Andre Wesson: SF, 6'6" 220 (FROSH)
*Keta Bates-Diop: SF/PF, 6'7" 230, 31.5 mpg, 11.8 ppg, 6.4 rpg, .453, .787, .324 (JUNIOR)
*Mark Loving: PF, 6'8" 215, 34 mpg, 14 ppg, 5.3 rpg, .414, .756, 339 (SENIOR)
Derek Funderburk: PF/C, 6'9" 205. Rivals #77 (FROSH)
Trevor Thompson: C, 7', 250, 17.9 mpg, 6.5ppg, 5.1 rpg, .522, .750 (RS JUNIOR)
David Ball: C, 6'9" 225, Played sparingly, (RS SOPH)
Micah Potter: C, 6'9" 240, (FROSH)
An 11-7 team returning all five starters and enjoying such experience should impress me more. What bothers me is their Kenpom Offensive Efficiency was 151st. They averaged more turnovers per game than assists. Maybe Jaquan Lyle improves quite a bit as a sophomore? I don't like the lack of depth at guard. I don't like that four of their five freshmen from a season ago transferred out. I like the possibilities of Jackson providing real pg help. I like that Thompson is a junior and appeared to be getting better last year. But much like Iowa, there are a lot of should's and could's on this team, And unlike Iowa, as to expectations, lately Ohio State has been a lot of couldn't.
*Jaquan Lyle: Combo Guard, 6'5", 210, 29.7 mpg, 11.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 4.2/3.0, .397 ,.712, .252 (SOPH)
C.J. Jackson: PG, 6'1" 175, 2nd team Juco All-American from Eastern Florida. 16.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 4.4 apg (RS SOPH)
*Kam Williams: SG, 6'2" 175, 21.9 mpg, 8.3 ppg, .436, .846, .437 (JUNIOR)
*JaeSean Tate: ATHLETE, 6'4", 230, 29.0 mpg, 11.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg, .521, .518, .350 (JUNIOR)
Andre Wesson: SF, 6'6" 220 (FROSH)
*Keta Bates-Diop: SF/PF, 6'7" 230, 31.5 mpg, 11.8 ppg, 6.4 rpg, .453, .787, .324 (JUNIOR)
*Mark Loving: PF, 6'8" 215, 34 mpg, 14 ppg, 5.3 rpg, .414, .756, 339 (SENIOR)
Derek Funderburk: PF/C, 6'9" 205. Rivals #77 (FROSH)
Trevor Thompson: C, 7', 250, 17.9 mpg, 6.5ppg, 5.1 rpg, .522, .750 (RS JUNIOR)
David Ball: C, 6'9" 225, Played sparingly, (RS SOPH)
Micah Potter: C, 6'9" 240, (FROSH)
An 11-7 team returning all five starters and enjoying such experience should impress me more. What bothers me is their Kenpom Offensive Efficiency was 151st. They averaged more turnovers per game than assists. Maybe Jaquan Lyle improves quite a bit as a sophomore? I don't like the lack of depth at guard. I don't like that four of their five freshmen from a season ago transferred out. I like the possibilities of Jackson providing real pg help. I like that Thompson is a junior and appeared to be getting better last year. But much like Iowa, there are a lot of should's and could's on this team, And unlike Iowa, as to expectations, lately Ohio State has been a lot of couldn't.
I don't know, maybe he saw all those guys ahead of him at Iowa and wanted to go somewhere where he could get playing time right away?
Penn State:
*Shep Garner: PG: 6'1", 185, 35.2 mpg, 14.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.4/2.0, .382, .783, .366 (JUNIOR)
*Tony Carr: Combo Guard: 6'5" 200, Rivals #46 (FROSH)
Terrance Samuel: SG, 6'4" 205, transfer from UConn, 20.4 mpg, 3.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg, .387, .769 (RS JUNIOR)
Isaiah Washington: SG, 6'3" 160, Played sparingly, (RS SOPH)
Josh Reaves: SG/WF, 6'4", 190, 23.8 mpg, 6.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg, .375, .756, .077 (SOPH)
Nazeer Bostick: SG/SF, 6'5" 180, (FROSH)
*Payton Banks: SF, 6'6" 220, 28.8 mpg, 9.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg, .382, .736, .325, (RS JUNIOR)
Deividas Zemgulas: SF, 6'6". 220, 12.2 mpg, 2.9 ppg, .382, 684, .250, (RS SOPH)
*Lamar Stevens: SF 6'7" 215, Rivals #96, (FROSH)
*Julian Moore: PF/C, 6'10", 235, 15.5 mpg, 3.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg, .446, 673, (RS JUNIOR)
Mike Watkins: C, 6'11", 225, Rivals #126 in 2015, (RS FROSH)
I don't think Penn State will say it was a big blow, but when PF 6'7" 255 Joe Hampton committed, decommited, committed, showed up early summer to workout, then transferred, I think it was a blow to their plans. They'll say he was going to redshirt. I say, How? So I'm shoving Lamar Stevens up to PF and this team is going to be little thin on the bench. They went 7-11 last year and if they do it again that would be a good year. Tony Carr will be fun to watch. Penn State, 146th according to Kenpom in 2015/16.
*Shep Garner: PG: 6'1", 185, 35.2 mpg, 14.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.4/2.0, .382, .783, .366 (JUNIOR)
*Tony Carr: Combo Guard: 6'5" 200, Rivals #46 (FROSH)
Terrance Samuel: SG, 6'4" 205, transfer from UConn, 20.4 mpg, 3.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg, .387, .769 (RS JUNIOR)
Isaiah Washington: SG, 6'3" 160, Played sparingly, (RS SOPH)
Josh Reaves: SG/WF, 6'4", 190, 23.8 mpg, 6.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg, .375, .756, .077 (SOPH)
Nazeer Bostick: SG/SF, 6'5" 180, (FROSH)
*Payton Banks: SF, 6'6" 220, 28.8 mpg, 9.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg, .382, .736, .325, (RS JUNIOR)
Deividas Zemgulas: SF, 6'6". 220, 12.2 mpg, 2.9 ppg, .382, 684, .250, (RS SOPH)
*Lamar Stevens: SF 6'7" 215, Rivals #96, (FROSH)
*Julian Moore: PF/C, 6'10", 235, 15.5 mpg, 3.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg, .446, 673, (RS JUNIOR)
Mike Watkins: C, 6'11", 225, Rivals #126 in 2015, (RS FROSH)
I don't think Penn State will say it was a big blow, but when PF 6'7" 255 Joe Hampton committed, decommited, committed, showed up early summer to workout, then transferred, I think it was a blow to their plans. They'll say he was going to redshirt. I say, How? So I'm shoving Lamar Stevens up to PF and this team is going to be little thin on the bench. They went 7-11 last year and if they do it again that would be a good year. Tony Carr will be fun to watch. Penn State, 146th according to Kenpom in 2015/16.
Purdue:
*P.J. Thompson: PG, 5'10", 188, 22.6 mpg, 5.7 ppg, 2.7/.7, .438, 828, .415 (JUNIOR)
Spike Albrecht: PG, 5'11", 175, transfer from Michigan, Played in 8 games and sparingly due to two hip injuries, (SENIOR)
Carsen Edwards: PG, 6', 175, Rivals #91 (FROSH)
*Dakota Mathias: SG, 6'4", 200, 19 mpg, 5.5 ppg, .408, .864, .386 (JUNIOR)
Ryan Cline: SG, 6'5", 190, 13.6 mpg, 3.9 ppg, .355, .538, .385 (SOPH)
Basil Smotherman: SF, 6'6", 230, Redshirt, year before, 12.9 mpg, 2.7 ppg, .470, .588, .190 (RS JUNIOR)
*Vince Edwards: SF/PF, 6'8" 225, 27.5 mpg, 11.3 ppg, 5.4 rpg, .450, .820, .407 (JUNIOR)
Jacquil Taylor: PF/C, 6'10, 240, Played sparingly, (RS SOPH)
*Caleb Swannigan: C/PF, 6'9" 250, 25.7 mpg, 10.2 ppg, 8.3 rpg, .461, .719, .292 (SOPH)
*Isaac Haas: C, 7'2", 282, 14.3 mpg, 9.8 ppg, 3.7 rpg, .594, .714 (JUNIOR)
If only there wasn't a shot clock. I just don't see the depth. I don't believe Haas can play 20 mpg. However, they finished 12-6 last year and 14th according to Kenpom! With Kenpom's 21st and 19th best Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. So here's my deal, due to lack of depth I'm going to drop them from my top tier to second tier. That still means a solid season and NCAA invite, but no challenge for the Big Ten Title.
*P.J. Thompson: PG, 5'10", 188, 22.6 mpg, 5.7 ppg, 2.7/.7, .438, 828, .415 (JUNIOR)
Spike Albrecht: PG, 5'11", 175, transfer from Michigan, Played in 8 games and sparingly due to two hip injuries, (SENIOR)
Carsen Edwards: PG, 6', 175, Rivals #91 (FROSH)
*Dakota Mathias: SG, 6'4", 200, 19 mpg, 5.5 ppg, .408, .864, .386 (JUNIOR)
Ryan Cline: SG, 6'5", 190, 13.6 mpg, 3.9 ppg, .355, .538, .385 (SOPH)
Basil Smotherman: SF, 6'6", 230, Redshirt, year before, 12.9 mpg, 2.7 ppg, .470, .588, .190 (RS JUNIOR)
*Vince Edwards: SF/PF, 6'8" 225, 27.5 mpg, 11.3 ppg, 5.4 rpg, .450, .820, .407 (JUNIOR)
Jacquil Taylor: PF/C, 6'10, 240, Played sparingly, (RS SOPH)
*Caleb Swannigan: C/PF, 6'9" 250, 25.7 mpg, 10.2 ppg, 8.3 rpg, .461, .719, .292 (SOPH)
*Isaac Haas: C, 7'2", 282, 14.3 mpg, 9.8 ppg, 3.7 rpg, .594, .714 (JUNIOR)
If only there wasn't a shot clock. I just don't see the depth. I don't believe Haas can play 20 mpg. However, they finished 12-6 last year and 14th according to Kenpom! With Kenpom's 21st and 19th best Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. So here's my deal, due to lack of depth I'm going to drop them from my top tier to second tier. That still means a solid season and NCAA invite, but no challenge for the Big Ten Title.
Rutgers:
Here's the deal. In two seasons Rutgers has won Three Big Ten games and lost Thirty-Three. I know they joined the B1G, but they haven't joined the Big Ten. They've finished 14th both seasons. I think there are Mid-Majors with much better records against the B!G over the last two years. There have got to be!
So no, yeah they've got a decent pg in Corey Sanders. Too bad for him.
Here's the deal. In two seasons Rutgers has won Three Big Ten games and lost Thirty-Three. I know they joined the B1G, but they haven't joined the Big Ten. They've finished 14th both seasons. I think there are Mid-Majors with much better records against the B!G over the last two years. There have got to be!
So no, yeah they've got a decent pg in Corey Sanders. Too bad for him.
Wisconsin:
*Bronson Koenig: Combo Guard, 6'4" 193, 34.9 mpg, 2.4/1.5, 13.1pg, .393, .763, .390, (SENIOR)
D'MitrickTrice: PG, 5'11. 815, (FROSH)
*Zak Showalter: Combo Guard, 6'2", 184, 31.4 mpg, 7.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.2/1.4, .455, .804, .346 (RS SENIOR)
Jordan Hill: SG, 6'3", 178, 16.1 mpg, 3 ppg, 379, .667, .333 (RS JUNIOR)
Brevyn Pritzl: SG, 6'3", 185, (RS FROSH, formerly Rivals #79)
*Nigel Hayes: SF/PF, 6'8", 240, 36.2 mpg, 15.7 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3.0/2.3, .368, .736, .293, (SENIOR, returning 1st team All-B1G)
Khalil Iverson: SF, 6'5', 205, 13 mpg, 2.6 ppg, .471, .528, .167 (SOPH)
Aleem Ford: SF, 6'7", 190, (FROSH)
*Vitto Brown: PF, 6'8", 230, 25.4 mpg, 9.7 ppg, 5 rpg, .445, .764, .400, (SENIOR)
Alex Illikainen: PF, 6'9", 220, 9.8 mpg, 2.2 ppg, .413, .667, .321 (SOPH)
*Ethan Happ: PF/C, 6'9", 235, 28.1 mpg, 12.4 ppg, 7.9 rpg, .538, .643 (RS SOPH)
Charlie Thomas IV: PF/C, 6'8" 253, 9.4 mpg, 2.4 ppg, .370, .467, 267 (SOPH)
Andy Van Vliet: C/PF, 6'11", 203, Played Pro-Ball in Europe but didn't take pay. As I understand it has 4 years available..but he's listed as (SOPH)
The starting five return from 12-6 years. Some freshmen turned sophomores or redshirted. Experience abounds. They were not a great offensive team last year, Kenpom had them at 98th. But, 10th on defense. I like this team as perhaps the best in the league this year.
*Bronson Koenig: Combo Guard, 6'4" 193, 34.9 mpg, 2.4/1.5, 13.1pg, .393, .763, .390, (SENIOR)
D'MitrickTrice: PG, 5'11. 815, (FROSH)
*Zak Showalter: Combo Guard, 6'2", 184, 31.4 mpg, 7.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.2/1.4, .455, .804, .346 (RS SENIOR)
Jordan Hill: SG, 6'3", 178, 16.1 mpg, 3 ppg, 379, .667, .333 (RS JUNIOR)
Brevyn Pritzl: SG, 6'3", 185, (RS FROSH, formerly Rivals #79)
*Nigel Hayes: SF/PF, 6'8", 240, 36.2 mpg, 15.7 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3.0/2.3, .368, .736, .293, (SENIOR, returning 1st team All-B1G)
Khalil Iverson: SF, 6'5', 205, 13 mpg, 2.6 ppg, .471, .528, .167 (SOPH)
Aleem Ford: SF, 6'7", 190, (FROSH)
*Vitto Brown: PF, 6'8", 230, 25.4 mpg, 9.7 ppg, 5 rpg, .445, .764, .400, (SENIOR)
Alex Illikainen: PF, 6'9", 220, 9.8 mpg, 2.2 ppg, .413, .667, .321 (SOPH)
*Ethan Happ: PF/C, 6'9", 235, 28.1 mpg, 12.4 ppg, 7.9 rpg, .538, .643 (RS SOPH)
Charlie Thomas IV: PF/C, 6'8" 253, 9.4 mpg, 2.4 ppg, .370, .467, 267 (SOPH)
Andy Van Vliet: C/PF, 6'11", 203, Played Pro-Ball in Europe but didn't take pay. As I understand it has 4 years available..but he's listed as (SOPH)
The starting five return from 12-6 years. Some freshmen turned sophomores or redshirted. Experience abounds. They were not a great offensive team last year, Kenpom had them at 98th. But, 10th on defense. I like this team as perhaps the best in the league this year.
We're done with team info. The thread is a mess but one can find last years records, All-B1G players gone and returning. All Rivals top 150 from every year, every team. Some key stats on players. A few guesses. This or that trivia.
Please feel free to make corrections or comments.
Now the fun begins. I'm going to guess at the final standings in the Big Ten in 2016/17. First, I'll do it as if this were a round robin 26 game schedule. Then I'll adjust down to the 18 games that each team will actually play. I'm not going to claim to have some extraordinary system....just all guesswork.
Please feel free to make corrections or comments.
Now the fun begins. I'm going to guess at the final standings in the Big Ten in 2016/17. First, I'll do it as if this were a round robin 26 game schedule. Then I'll adjust down to the 18 games that each team will actually play. I'm not going to claim to have some extraordinary system....just all guesswork.
Based on my illogical hunches. A 26 game round robin schedule would end like this:
Wisconsin 23-2-1, (One game too close to call)
Mich St 22-4
Indiana 20-6
Purdue 16-9-1
Maryland 15-10-1
Ohio State 15-10-1
Iowa 14-12
Mich 14-12
North 12-14
Illinois 12-14
Penn St 6-20
Minn 4-22
Neb 3-23
Rutgers 3-23
It adds up with the four outliers to 182 games. Might be .5 off somewhere but I'm not going to worry about it. And, the tops and bottoms are exaggerated, these teams are involved in far more games that could be "upsets". One last step and that's condensing this down to the actual 18 game schedules.
Wisconsin 23-2-1, (One game too close to call)
Mich St 22-4
Indiana 20-6
Purdue 16-9-1
Maryland 15-10-1
Ohio State 15-10-1
Iowa 14-12
Mich 14-12
North 12-14
Illinois 12-14
Penn St 6-20
Minn 4-22
Neb 3-23
Rutgers 3-23
It adds up with the four outliers to 182 games. Might be .5 off somewhere but I'm not going to worry about it. And, the tops and bottoms are exaggerated, these teams are involved in far more games that could be "upsets". One last step and that's condensing this down to the actual 18 game schedules.
OK. My official predictions for the Big Ten season, 2016/17. I know I'm going to tick some people off. My way of doing this tends to leave some losses on the bottom teams when in reality they are going to upset some teams once In awhile. Just don't know when. Same all around but for the teams in the middle it balances out more. So:
Wisconsin: 15-3
Mich State: 15-3
Indiana 13-5
Maryland 12-6
Purdue 11-7
Iowa 11-7
Ohio State 11-7
Northwestern 10-8
Illinois 9-9
Michigan 9-9
Penn State 4-14
Rutgers 3-15
Minnesota 2-16
Nebraska 1-17
Wisconsin: 15-3
Mich State: 15-3
Indiana 13-5
Maryland 12-6
Purdue 11-7
Iowa 11-7
Ohio State 11-7
Northwestern 10-8
Illinois 9-9
Michigan 9-9
Penn State 4-14
Rutgers 3-15
Minnesota 2-16
Nebraska 1-17
It's the schedule helping us. If I'm right about Minnesota and Rutgers that's four wins right there, all we need is a.500 record the rest of the way. It's also interesting to me that Rutgers, the worst team in the league, could finish better than Minnesota and Nebraska just based on where the bottom four teams play each other.
The way I'm doing this, which I'm calling complete guesswork, has a system that I'm not going to explain. But I used it last year and did dang good with it. This year if I do as well, I think I'm onto something.
The problems however, are:1. I can't figure in upsets and teams on the bottom have multiple chances whereas teams in the middle don't. The teams at the top, from what I've seen, tend not to lose games as they have balance, depth, they are just pretty much upset proof to a larger extent, than again, the teams in the middle.
2. A team like Iowa this year defies reasonable "guesses". Putting a pattern of success onto such a large group of replacements makes me doubt myself. But, I'm going with it on paper. (Or on screen) I'd still be accepting of say 8-10 and the NIT just knowing how inexperienced on the court our guys are. Maybe I should create a "range" based on confidence? If I did that, Wisconsin's range would be something like 15-3 to 13-5, but Iowa's would be 12-6 to 7-11...a huge question mark. A range would also soften the hard core slams of the lowest level teams.
12-6 to 7-11 is about where they belong. I don't really see the 12 win team, but would welcome that or better, obvs.
They're too much of a wild card, especially when one can't confidently predict the starting lineup.
And with every team involved, there's always the injury, suspension, transfer, etc. bug that plays into the season. You just never know.
Here's what we do "know". Wisconsin and MSU will be there at the end. And there are a couple more who will also make a push to be there, but those 2 have been doing it for a long time. Indy was good, but has to replace some things that may or may not work like last year.
There are teams you can easily pick as bottom feeders. We've been there, so we know what to look for. (a coach on the hot seat, a coach who can't coach, a coach with no facilities, a coach whose players won't play for him) Rutgers, Minnesota, Nebraska and PSU have occupied this space for a bit. One day one of them could make a leap, but it doesn't appear to be this year. Perhaps, PSU.
The rest are loitering, throwing rocks at the big boys and taking the basement boys for granted. Losing to them when they shouldn't.
I hope for an exciting and developmental season with a good story to tell at the end.
They're too much of a wild card, especially when one can't confidently predict the starting lineup.
And with every team involved, there's always the injury, suspension, transfer, etc. bug that plays into the season. You just never know.
Here's what we do "know". Wisconsin and MSU will be there at the end. And there are a couple more who will also make a push to be there, but those 2 have been doing it for a long time. Indy was good, but has to replace some things that may or may not work like last year.
There are teams you can easily pick as bottom feeders. We've been there, so we know what to look for. (a coach on the hot seat, a coach who can't coach, a coach with no facilities, a coach whose players won't play for him) Rutgers, Minnesota, Nebraska and PSU have occupied this space for a bit. One day one of them could make a leap, but it doesn't appear to be this year. Perhaps, PSU.
The rest are loitering, throwing rocks at the big boys and taking the basement boys for granted. Losing to them when they shouldn't.
I hope for an exciting and developmental season with a good story to tell at the end.
Dan, I didn't look too carefully at how you arrived there( I did read your posts but only cursory since how a player has played last year to me is only an indication of what this year means, ,work ethic, team importance vs. individual importance as well as how staff and players are relating are to me end up being just as important a factor in how a team developes),let the games begin, but I am right there with you in your summary by what I've seen and who is coming back. You just might have something worked out with your analysis, time will tell I guess. I like you well thought out guesswork. The middle is always where it gets most murky. Lots of things between Indiana and Michigan that will most likely change but top and bottom seem clearly spot on. Even last year with Iowa knocking off both Purdue and Michigan Stae, the cream still rose to the top of the League. My thoughts are Iowa is poised to make a Wisconsin type move this year which will throw off your predictions some but thanks for your analysis. Waiting until games start is getting more difficult by the day, but reading fans thoughts make it a bit easier. Have a good preseason and I'll be here most days to lurk and write when the urge moves me. Take care and thanks again.
I don't know what will happen but I think there is a pretty good chance Iowa surprises this season. In my view we have 3 main issues to resolve (in no order)
1. Must have another consistent 3 point shooting threat. Jok can't be the only one.
2. Must be able to rebound the ball
3. PG must be solid
I think several guys will be consistent 3 point threats including J BO.
I think we will be solid rebounding. Cook is a monster, and Pemsl/Wagner will be good. maybe Dom too
I think we will be fine at the point. I really like CW and I think everyone will feel this way as we get into the season.
I can tell you this: Fran thinks we are going to be pretty good.
And no one wants to hear this I suppose but I have been hearing Brady has been looking really solid.
1. Must have another consistent 3 point shooting threat. Jok can't be the only one.
2. Must be able to rebound the ball
3. PG must be solid
I think several guys will be consistent 3 point threats including J BO.
I think we will be solid rebounding. Cook is a monster, and Pemsl/Wagner will be good. maybe Dom too
I think we will be fine at the point. I really like CW and I think everyone will feel this way as we get into the season.
I can tell you this: Fran thinks we are going to be pretty good.
And no one wants to hear this I suppose but I have been hearing Brady has been looking really solid.
Tyler Cook @KingCook_25 Oct 1
First Day Of Practice In The Books
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First Day Of Practice In The Books
Like your thoughts about Iowa becoming a Wisconsin-type team in the sense of consistently playing above their "on-paper" talent. There is precedent for that. Fran has produced teams at Iowa (and before that) that have consistently improved. The last 2 performed better than predicted before the season started. I'm beginning to think we may expect that type of performance consistently. Yes, I know the last 2 teams had experience. But this team has more of the multi-skilled players that Fran has been trying to recruit. On the other hand, the program improvement has been slow and steady. So this trend might cause me to expect a little better than expected, but not shocking, showing this year.
Look at all the interesting responses.
I like talking basketball. And, I'm doing the research and finding info all the time anyway just to inform myself. The only thing left is a little typing to share it...no biggie. I'm just a College Basketball Couch Coach with no game to watch.Ben Carter is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Once Schilling inevitably gets into foul trouble, MSU has one big over 6'6. That will be a problem.
I thought MSU was fundamentally different last year with the hand checking rules. They tended to get out on the arc with one hand up in the shooting column, but they were no longer able to divert your path into gaps. This alone I thought was worth 2 games a season in the Big 10 for them. Iowa looked much better against them than usual, even though we're usually a "skinny" team that is easy to bully.
Add this to the fact that they have a rather short roster, and it will be tough for them to win the league imo. They could turn up the tempo perhaps to compensate.
Add this to the fact that they have a rather short roster, and it will be tough for them to win the league imo. They could turn up the tempo perhaps to compensate.
That isn't the big and brawny roster you usually see with Izzo teams. There is lots of athletic depth at 1, 2, & 3 however. With that group I'd think the strategy would be to try and force the better teams to go small to match MSU's quickness and athleticism. But that's not usually their game. Ward is going to see a lot of minutes. It'll be interesting to see he and Cook go head to head.
20 mins a game from Haas isn't much to expect. I don't see why he couldn't do that.
When you look at 2013, 2014, and 2015 for Iowa not having ONE top 150 player, it's very good that the Hawks did as well as they have. It's nice to have a very good talent in Cook for 2016 and more in the pipe line! Good job, Fran, I know you'll keep us heading upward.
(Good point spbc7, but technically Uthoff was a transfer from the 2011 class, and we can't recruit transfers) One thing I was saying for a number of years was Iowa was in a drought, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, no top 150's in the state of Iowa. We were also young, and deep, and it wasn't easy recruiting out of state when the first NCAA we'd been invited to since Alford didn't come until 2013/14.
It's a good thing Fran knows how to coach, and spot talent. And a good thing Iowa is producing talent again, and that we are increasing interest outside our borders.
Dan....I can't say enough about what you've done here preseason and like many other posters even around the B1G in this thread, I agree and thank you.
As you know, I am one of your biggest allies/disciples with your thoughts on Fran and Iowa BB and just BB in general in the B1G. Hard to project/predict in BB but why not what you've posted?? I've already bought the preseason BIG BB rag mags but your detail is better....
For Iowa, I know the roster is young and short on game experience but I absolutely love the mix of talent. They just need TIME and I really like their schedule compared to other BIG teams....this is important.
I saw this roster play in PTL and collectively the perimeter players were doing things I've not seen perimeter players do a whole lot of in PTL and the inside play was well, doing things on the low block scoring and at the rim (dunking) and from the 3 point line too that as a front court unit collectively, I've not seen done so much in PTL.....Cook didn't just didn't dunk the ball if you follow me with the highlights below..
Defense is the real key though? Can this group use their athleticism, their length, their energy, extreme effort is what it will take to get after teams on the D end to get stops? Help D like Nova displayed last year is the model to follow. This is what I hope Iowa could become?
Exciting to see who will step up?
So, what the heck. Here's my Iowa Hawkeye Outlook and how we get to the 11-7 that I'm hoping for:
Point Guard: I've been shouting praises for Christian Williams for a solid year and a half now. Roy Marble as a Junior got the chance to step into the starting point guard spot when Mike Gesell was injured at Nebraska. And dang it but if Marble didn't lead us through a great run. While Gesell was missing four games and then came back at much less than 100%, Marble lead us to an 8-3 record. The only games we lost were at then #1 Indiana, Ted Valentine's crooked Big Ten Tournament game with #8 Michigan State by 3 points, and in the Final of the NIT to Baylor. (We finished 29th according to Kenpom, Baylor 28th)
So what's that say about a 6'6" shooting guard turning into a combo guard and by the way Devyn had 112 assists to 80 turnovers so he was still in the middle of learning the point. The next year as a senior it was 118-57. Now, I'd wager Marble, until Gesell was hurt, had less practice at point than Christian Williams has already had. And, those four games Gesell missed? In a row Marble went assists to turnovers 1-1, 4-4, 6-1, 5-1, getting better fast.
I've seen nothing in Williams game that makes me think he can't play the point. And in fact his ball handling, passing (6'6 3/4's you will see over people), and the potential defense from that nearly 7' wingspan. I think we're going to have a good one. And he was a scorer in high school and can jump! And may I remind what both Gesell and Clemmons said about Williams, "Don't sleep on him". And. I didn't exactly see McCaffery scouring the earth for a point guard in the 2016 class. Maybe because...
...Backup (imo) Bohannon comes in as prepared as a freshman can be to play point. It's a family thing. And we've got plenty of guys who could step in and bring the ball up.
And I would remind. McCaffery himself commented last May (or so) that we don't plan to use a point guard by having him set up every play. We run motion and that means several guys move around and all pass the ball. This is part of "Positionless Basketball" and maybe we aren't yet used to it, or just haven't considered that maybe the reason Mike Gesell didn't look like Yogi Ferrell is we don't want one guy dribbling around, and then a whole team adjusting to set up another scheme with the same guy at the top.
I think, when all is said and done, this year, after we temporarily suffer some problems with turnovers and stalled offenses, that we will be very happy at the end of the year with our point guards.
Wings: We know we've got Jok and he is a preseason All-B1G 1st team guy. Then we simply have to find the best wing to start alongside him. We've no shortage. Ellingson, Dailey, Moss, Baer, Jones. I KNOW we can find a good one as Baer is already that But I wonder if we find out that we're deep and I think I see some deadly shooters from outside to keep guys off of Jok.
As to busting up defenses with drives? Moss has the skill and so does Williams. Sure we could use more for the triple threat of drive, dish or shoot to be most effective. But if your passes and your shooting are solid, the drives get easier. I'll bet a dime to a dollar that if he doesn't having nagging injuries (my fear with Jok) Peter will make many guys pay for guarding him too close.
So, we're deep, have athletes and promising ones at that. The question still remains how much we put it together and how fast. But! Who is really brand new? Dailey. Everyone else on the wings has been around at least a year.
Power Forward/Center? Who hasn't shown a willingness to step out and hit the three? We know Uhl will shoot. And Wagner, suddenly this summer, showed some skill from outside and that went FAR beyond just surprising me. He could end up developing into a 6'7" muscular wing worthy of the NBA. I just don't know where his ceiling is. Cook? Fran told him when he recruited him he was going to get coached up into a complete Power Forward and that includes a game from the outside. Pemsl, Kriener, each comes with some ability, or good ability, to stretch the floor. As far as posting up or penetrating? I'd give Wagner and Cook the green light to take the ball to the rim anytime they want. They are fearless. I'm hoping the same comes true for Uhl, hopefully he can take the contact this season. Kriener and Pemsl seem like more natural back to the basket guys. But what a mix, and we only need to find two to start and at least one to come off the bench.
I REALLY like the talent of this team. And where we are new is at spots we can afford to be. Our weaknesses will all be from inexperience, some I've mentioned:
Turnovers, stalled offense, missed assignments on defense, foul troubles.
I don't think defense is going to be that bad. And I think our strengths will be the ball handling at five spots. Passing at five spots (keeping fingers crossed for Jok, big part of how he gets in the NBA draft) And those two reasons are why I think our points end up pretty good, they will have help. Getting help from all five spots matters. Other strengths; rebounding, especially offensive, and lot's and lot's of made three's.
Let's get to that NCAA Tournament...because by then this team is going to be scary.
And, watch out for free throw percentages....we need to keep 'em high.
Point Guard: I've been shouting praises for Christian Williams for a solid year and a half now. Roy Marble as a Junior got the chance to step into the starting point guard spot when Mike Gesell was injured at Nebraska. And dang it but if Marble didn't lead us through a great run. While Gesell was missing four games and then came back at much less than 100%, Marble lead us to an 8-3 record. The only games we lost were at then #1 Indiana, Ted Valentine's crooked Big Ten Tournament game with #8 Michigan State by 3 points, and in the Final of the NIT to Baylor. (We finished 29th according to Kenpom, Baylor 28th)
So what's that say about a 6'6" shooting guard turning into a combo guard and by the way Devyn had 112 assists to 80 turnovers so he was still in the middle of learning the point. The next year as a senior it was 118-57. Now, I'd wager Marble, until Gesell was hurt, had less practice at point than Christian Williams has already had. And, those four games Gesell missed? In a row Marble went assists to turnovers 1-1, 4-4, 6-1, 5-1, getting better fast.
I've seen nothing in Williams game that makes me think he can't play the point. And in fact his ball handling, passing (6'6 3/4's you will see over people), and the potential defense from that nearly 7' wingspan. I think we're going to have a good one. And he was a scorer in high school and can jump! And may I remind what both Gesell and Clemmons said about Williams, "Don't sleep on him". And. I didn't exactly see McCaffery scouring the earth for a point guard in the 2016 class. Maybe because...
...Backup (imo) Bohannon comes in as prepared as a freshman can be to play point. It's a family thing. And we've got plenty of guys who could step in and bring the ball up.
And I would remind. McCaffery himself commented last May (or so) that we don't plan to use a point guard by having him set up every play. We run motion and that means several guys move around and all pass the ball. This is part of "Positionless Basketball" and maybe we aren't yet used to it, or just haven't considered that maybe the reason Mike Gesell didn't look like Yogi Ferrell is we don't want one guy dribbling around, and then a whole team adjusting to set up another scheme with the same guy at the top.
I think, when all is said and done, this year, after we temporarily suffer some problems with turnovers and stalled offenses, that we will be very happy at the end of the year with our point guards.
Wings: We know we've got Jok and he is a preseason All-B1G 1st team guy. Then we simply have to find the best wing to start alongside him. We've no shortage. Ellingson, Dailey, Moss, Baer, Jones. I KNOW we can find a good one as Baer is already that But I wonder if we find out that we're deep and I think I see some deadly shooters from outside to keep guys off of Jok.
As to busting up defenses with drives? Moss has the skill and so does Williams. Sure we could use more for the triple threat of drive, dish or shoot to be most effective. But if your passes and your shooting are solid, the drives get easier. I'll bet a dime to a dollar that if he doesn't having nagging injuries (my fear with Jok) Peter will make many guys pay for guarding him too close.
So, we're deep, have athletes and promising ones at that. The question still remains how much we put it together and how fast. But! Who is really brand new? Dailey. Everyone else on the wings has been around at least a year.
Power Forward/Center? Who hasn't shown a willingness to step out and hit the three? We know Uhl will shoot. And Wagner, suddenly this summer, showed some skill from outside and that went FAR beyond just surprising me. He could end up developing into a 6'7" muscular wing worthy of the NBA. I just don't know where his ceiling is. Cook? Fran told him when he recruited him he was going to get coached up into a complete Power Forward and that includes a game from the outside. Pemsl, Kriener, each comes with some ability, or good ability, to stretch the floor. As far as posting up or penetrating? I'd give Wagner and Cook the green light to take the ball to the rim anytime they want. They are fearless. I'm hoping the same comes true for Uhl, hopefully he can take the contact this season. Kriener and Pemsl seem like more natural back to the basket guys. But what a mix, and we only need to find two to start and at least one to come off the bench.
I REALLY like the talent of this team. And where we are new is at spots we can afford to be. Our weaknesses will all be from inexperience, some I've mentioned:
Turnovers, stalled offense, missed assignments on defense, foul troubles.
I don't think defense is going to be that bad. And I think our strengths will be the ball handling at five spots. Passing at five spots (keeping fingers crossed for Jok, big part of how he gets in the NBA draft) And those two reasons are why I think our points end up pretty good, they will have help. Getting help from all five spots matters. Other strengths; rebounding, especially offensive, and lot's and lot's of made three's.
Let's get to that NCAA Tournament...because by then this team is going to be scary.
And, watch out for free throw percentages....we need to keep 'em high.
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I can guarantee that Minnesota will win more than two conference games.
I'll pretty much guarantee it as well. But as I explained, which ones? As of now the best thing I think they've got going is a couple games they should win, and sixteen chances to get hot shooting, or catch a team on a cold night. If I credit them with upsets, I have to guess which teams they will beat. I don't know how to do that and not be less accurate than I am.
Absolutely love this DanL. I also have in my head that Jok is going to be extra strong mentally to handle the abuse they gave him last year. After going thru his NBA experience.........the scouts have had to let him know to get tougher. So, imo I believe he will become even better his senior year than his junior season.
Well, I'm loving the replies. I agree with you on Jok. It's like giving the green light to one of those cars from the "Too Fast, Too Furious", movies. I am not even worried about hands in Jok's face as frankly I think he shoots better than when he's wide open.
My only concern is that defenses not be allowed to push, grab, tackle, check block, hold, clip, facemask or any other nasty thing to prevent Jok from moving on the court. If this happens, I believe the solution is to let Jok give somebody a hard retaliation elbow and dare the refs to call it. He's not prone to foul problems anyway.
I recall last year against Indiana when Yogi Ferrell was wrestling Jok all game and at one point actually collided so hard as to knock Jok down and fall on him. The amazing thing to me was Jok is so strong he caught Yogi in the air and benched pressed him another three feet!!
Time to let that side out if he has to....own the court.
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