Ha, alright I'll entertain this.
Would you be so confident Iowa would be in if all of the following happened:
Clemson finishes regular season undeafeted, winning the ACC. (And they should. If they lose to Florida State, that's gonna create problems for the champion of that conference.)
Either LSU or Alabama win the rest of their games, including the SEC championship game. (LSU being undefeated means they're in. Alabama winning out doesn't guarantee them diddly sh**. They'd still need Ole Miss to lose again. Otherwise, the Rebels will play Florida who could have 1-loss by the end...or drop one to FSU, before winning the SEC.)
Either TCU or Baylor finish regular season undefeated. (Only one will...and they also still have to play 1-loss Oklahoma. So does Ok State.)
Stanford or Notre Dame win the rest of their regular season games. (Stanford with their one loss will be a csb. Notre Dame still plays Stanford at the end of the year btw so that'll effectively be an elimination game. Stanford still has them, Oregon and Cal to contend with while the Irish got Pitt and Stanford as their remaining tough contests. Notre Dame's problem is, once again, that they're not in a conference. They will probably make an argument over a 1-loss team, but in spite of all their decent wins, that one loss to Clemson will be damning against a P5 team that wins a CCG and finishes undefeated.)
Clemson would be in. LSU or Alabama would be in. TCU or Baylor would be in.
So, say the final spot is a choice between one-loss Notre Dame, and undefeated Iowa...
Are you confident Iowa would get the nod?
And now we get to the end. The most likely hypothetical, if things worked out in our favor, ultimately (fingers crossed)....is that 12-0 Iowa faces 12-0 Ohio State. The Buckeyes are #1 and will probably remain a Top 3 team, if not #1 depending on how the CFP committee views them, as long as they keep winning.
So basically, Iowa winning the BTCG over a perceived #1 Ohio State team would mean that
13-0 Iowa would have the best win on any team's resume, including Notre Dame, and the CFP committee would be like "fk all your pessimistic bullsh** and overall body of work; THAT is their ticket to the big dance."
Therefore.....no, Iowa will not be left out of a playoff if they go undefeated AND beat Ohio State. They just need to actually go out there and do that, is all......
Now, the reason why I, personally, will accept those of you who want to play devil's advocate and say that it isn't
impossible that an undefeated Iowa could get left out.....is because of certain things we
can't control.
And that would be how Michigan State and Ohio State finish. Iowa NEEDS an undefeated Big Ten team from the East in order to have the best possible win on their resume, hypothetically speaking....
If Michigan State wins out, they will be highly ranked, but it may not be as great a perceived win as beating Ohio State, as unfortunate as that is. However, Iowa will still have the advantage of having beaten an undefeated team that beat what will most likely be the #1 team at the time they play, to win the BTCG. That will still be enough to put them over the top.
However, if MSU drops another game in there....say they lose to Nebraska before their game with Ohio State, and then wins out, OR Ohio State comes into Ann Arbor undefeated and Michigan hands them a loss, that could be a problem for the Big Ten as a whole...not just for Iowa.
If Ohio State or Michigan State lose before the BTCG and still go on to win it....who is to say they get in over one of the other 1-loss teams?
Of course wouldn't it be ironically f***ing funny that their argument is merited on having beat a hypothetically 12-0 Iowa team, in order to convince the committee that they belong?....and then they get in because of that?
All things considered though, and this is hypothetically speaking of course.........a 13-0 Iowa is in the CFP.
Deal with it.