ESPN gives Iowa a 19% chance of finishing 12-0
- Thread starter DavenportHawk8
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I just saw something that said FPI 19% and games left: @ Nebbie.
I assumed they were talking about Friday.
Since Iowa is already locked into a game after Nebraska you would assume they were considering that one as well.
ESPN doesn't have as many "experts" as they claim.
I'm sure most of the people on there that are against Iowa haven't even watched any of our games. And those that do give us some credit, probably have only watched the highlights.
The good news is, it doesn't matter what they say or think. All we have to do is win. We have done a good job of doing that so far!
As for Nebraska, who says they are so good all of a sudden? They only barely beat MSU with a little help from the refs. Before that, the wheels were falling off of their program and the dumpster fire was burning bright. I don't think they got their wheels fixed yet. Their fans just have to hope something is going right since they are going to be stuck with their new coach for a while. I don't see them as any more of a threat to us as Minnesota or Illinois was.
Go Hawks!
I'm sure most of the people on there that are against Iowa haven't even watched any of our games. And those that do give us some credit, probably have only watched the highlights.
The good news is, it doesn't matter what they say or think. All we have to do is win. We have done a good job of doing that so far!
As for Nebraska, who says they are so good all of a sudden? They only barely beat MSU with a little help from the refs. Before that, the wheels were falling off of their program and the dumpster fire was burning bright. I don't think they got their wheels fixed yet. Their fans just have to hope something is going right since they are going to be stuck with their new coach for a while. I don't see them as any more of a threat to us as Minnesota or Illinois was.
Go Hawks!
The fact that ESPN now uses a cameraman to help do their picks prior to the games on Saturday just reflects how low rent they have become. When does he have time to analyze and watch games, he is working on weekends doing electronics setup. Next up, lets ask some Grandma on the street.......
The only people picking Nebraska are the dork reporters, Feinbaum, Cowherd, etc. The guys who coached and played all pick Iowa. I think I'll go with them over the 120lb water boys
Good for them. I bet they said Iowa had a 0.005% chance of being 11-0 when the season started also. Those guys are morons and have no idea what they're talking about. Herbskeet put MSU in the top 4 because they beat his Buckeyes. Idiot.
Go Hawks! JUST KEEP WINNING!
Go Hawks! JUST KEEP WINNING!
Finnebaum looks like Dumbo. He could fly right off the set with those ears.
Was watching the Championship Drive on ESPNU last night and they had Finnebaum on there. I guess he was the sideline reporter for the Citadel/South Carolina game this pas weekend for the SEC Network. Apparently last year Bama played the Citadel and Finnebaum was quoted as saying, "Alabama should play a HS team, because they'd be better than what their playing this weekend."
Fast Forward to this past weekend and Finnebaum had to interview the Citadel coach and he didn't forget those comments. I guess he was pretty pissed at Finnebaum and made him look stupid (like that hard to do) on TV.
The funny thing is I feel like that cameraman is more knowledgeable and does more research than most of the actual analysts.
I thought it mean 19% of going undefeated when I saw it flash across the screen.
I don't believe this is true for one second. Although the Nebraska game is a very close spread...last I saw we were -1.5. That's almost a pick em. HUGE difference between that and 19%. If they actually said that there is a 19 percent chance that Iowa beats Nebraska, PLEASE show some documentation...you can't because that never happened. They didn't do that. You're fibbing.
The OP was confused about something. Move along. Nothing to see here.
The OP was confused about something. Move along. Nothing to see here.
Guys we are currently 1 1/2 point favorites against Nebraska this weekend. We will most likely be 5 + point underdogs in the Big Ten championship game. So in random guesses on what percentage we would be placed to win those games based on the spread. Say 55% against Nebraska and 35% Big Ten Championship, that puts us at 19.25% to go undefeated (.55*.35) in those two games.
Calm down and enjoy the ride. ESPN does have a large SEC bias but sometimes they are using actual numbers (maybe your Hawk bias is at play on this one and not SEC bias).
Please before attacking me I am a hawk fan. I'm flying to Indy for championship game. I was a season ticket holder in years past. And I accepted math into my life.
Calm down and enjoy the ride. ESPN does have a large SEC bias but sometimes they are using actual numbers (maybe your Hawk bias is at play on this one and not SEC bias).
Please before attacking me I am a hawk fan. I'm flying to Indy for championship game. I was a season ticket holder in years past. And I accepted math into my life.
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Just doing quick and dirty math I would have to say the 19% is based on 13-0. Say the metrics they are using puts Iowa as a pure toss up at Nebraska, and then a bit less than 40% to go on and beat the East winner the following week, and that seems to be pretty accurate to me based on the metrics they are using. These things always tend to virtually eliminate things like coaching, special teams, football intelligence, game management, momentum and leadership. Maybe I'm a dinosaur, but at least in college sports In still a huge believer in "clutch".
This. OP should correct the thread title.
Iowa will be media underdogs the rest of the way and this is just fine with me .... all the talk against Iowa will tighten the circle even more.
It is to go 13-0 not 12-0 as others have stated. Also ESPN's FPI is an absolute joke of a metric and I really hope the CFP committe doesn't use it.
I'm guessing even you gave the hawks less than a 1% chance at the beginning of the season too.
ANY prediction based on ESPN's FPI Index is literally less than worthless. The fact that ESPN still has this index active is an embarrassment to them.
The FPI has Iowa ranked #28, behind multiple 5 and 4 loss teams. It has 2 loss TCU ahead of Clemson, Baylor ahead of Bama. Need I continue? Simply IGNORE this data.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings
Fulltilt thank you for clearing that up for the math deficient posters on here. I'd say your percentages are spot on for how they come up with our "19.25%" chance. I don't see anything outrages with these predicted percentages. Nebraska on the road after a short week with them having an open week.... Yea most people (including hawk fans) would see this as a toss up. Nebraska could easily be undefeated right with us if a few more plays go their way this year and of course msu is favored over us. They beat osu with backup qb's in Columbus and have been a top 10 caliber team for about 5 years now. 19.25%? I'll take it.
Go Hawks
Go Hawks
While I agree that FPI is a joke, (and I can't even believe I've about to defend it) I think it is being taken out of context a bit here.
Clearly, Tennessee would not be ranked higher than Iowa is any reasonable poll...but...would you be willing to bet that Tennessee would not be favored over the Hawkeyes on a neutral field by Vegas?
ESPN's FPI prediction model should not have been intended to be a ranking system (if, in fact that is what it is being used for) and is obviously in need of some tweaking to the algorithm since it appears to reward offensive performance over defense. But I think there are some takeaways from it that can be useful in the right context.
Clearly, Tennessee would not be ranked higher than Iowa is any reasonable poll...but...would you be willing to bet that Tennessee would not be favored over the Hawkeyes on a neutral field by Vegas?
ESPN's FPI prediction model should not have been intended to be a ranking system (if, in fact that is what it is being used for) and is obviously in need of some tweaking to the algorithm since it appears to reward offensive performance over defense. But I think there are some takeaways from it that can be useful in the right context.
They are referring to winning vs NU and most likely MSU, 19% chance to win out according to their hokey FPI.
ESPN actually puts the chances of Iowa winning at Nebraska at 50.3%. Using some simple math, they therefore believe the Hawks have a 36.38% chance of winning the B1G championship game against Michigan/Michigan State/Ohio State.
Math is a wonderful tool. Using it, you can actually determine what ESPN thinks of everyone's chances of beating Iowa.
Math is a wonderful tool. Using it, you can actually determine what ESPN thinks of everyone's chances of beating Iowa.
If both games are true toss ups the the odds of winning two are 25%. So 19% is pretty realistic if viewed like that
60% chance of beating Nebby in their house.
http://myteamsbetter.com/#COMPARE_T...tatView=Key Stats&compareOption=ALL_OPPONENTS
Iowa better in selected stats 24 to 11, like scoring margin and total defense.
http://myteamsbetter.com/#COMPARE_T...tatView=Key Stats&compareOption=ALL_OPPONENTS
Iowa better in selected stats 24 to 11, like scoring margin and total defense.
That site really doesn't like Michigan State.
Ran a similar calculation further up, so did the same here:
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