Also important: projected 5-seed Oregon just lost to Utah today.
Hawkeye Women’s BBall Season 2021-2022
- Thread starter huntermmm
- Start date
At this point, the only teams that weren't in the top 16 that I think could possibly pass us are Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Virginia Tech. For the latter two, I'm not even sure that that's enough, and Tech would have to beat NC State (and then likely Notre Dame) to do it.
Women's Bracketology: Which teams join South Carolina on the top line?
Will the ACC, Big Ten or SEC put double-digit teams in the 2025 NCAA tourney? The projection begins with 1-seeds South Carolina, UConn, USC and UCLA.
www.espn.com
I like this bracket. LSU is a good matchup for us. Might actually have a shot at the Elite E/Final Four. Still be a challenge but not nearly as daunting as some of the other 2 seeds.Women's Bracketology: Which teams join South Carolina on the top line?
Will the ACC, Big Ten or SEC put double-digit teams in the 2025 NCAA tourney? The projection begins with 1-seeds South Carolina, UConn, USC and UCLA.www.espn.com
If I'm doing the bracket matrix right, Creme has the top 12 teams ranked like this:
#1 South Carolina, #2 Stanford, #3 NC State, #4 Louisville, #5 Baylor, #6 Iowa State, #7 LSU, #8 UConn, #9 Texas, #10 Iowa, #11 Tennessee, #12 Michigan
That... seems surprising. It means we jumped Tennessee, Arizona, Maryland, and Michigan just by beating Northwestern. And Indiana didn't jump significantly by beating Maryland. Not sure I buy that, but it would be great if accurate. If Creme is right, a 2 seed definitely seems in play if we win the tournament.
#1 South Carolina, #2 Stanford, #3 NC State, #4 Louisville, #5 Baylor, #6 Iowa State, #7 LSU, #8 UConn, #9 Texas, #10 Iowa, #11 Tennessee, #12 Michigan
That... seems surprising. It means we jumped Tennessee, Arizona, Maryland, and Michigan just by beating Northwestern. And Indiana didn't jump significantly by beating Maryland. Not sure I buy that, but it would be great if accurate. If Creme is right, a 2 seed definitely seems in play if we win the tournament.
I think the reason behind it is that with Indiana's win, both of Iowa's victories against Indiana go up in value, whereas Indiana gets the value of a win against Maryland. Nebraska's win over Michigan also increases Iowa's wins over Nebraska. Our big wins (Michigan 15, Indiana 17x2, Nebraska 20x2, UCF 22). 6 wins over Net top 25 are impressive. And our SOS is very high.
Not sure if a 2 seed is in play but we could certainly get the top 3 seed.
With Virginia Tech's loss to NC State, I think only three teams from outside the Top 16 have any hope at all of jumping us: Notre Dame, Ohio State, and BYU.
BYU: I'm actually not sure that BYU can pass us. They can only get two wins in their conference tournament, and the best of those would be over Gonzaga (a projected 11 seed). That really doesn't do much to build their resume, and they were already behind us.
Ohio State: They would have to win the conference tournament to do it, and I'm not even sure they pass us if they win it. That would also mean they beat Indiana, and if they beat Indiana we also probably stay ahead of the Hoosiers.
Notre Dame: Would probably have to win the ACC Tournament to jump us. That's far from a certainty with NC State their opponent if they make the championship game.
Edit: Notre Dame just lost to Miami. They won't jump us easier. I don't see any possibility of Iowa falling out of the top 16 at this point.
BYU: I'm actually not sure that BYU can pass us. They can only get two wins in their conference tournament, and the best of those would be over Gonzaga (a projected 11 seed). That really doesn't do much to build their resume, and they were already behind us.
Ohio State: They would have to win the conference tournament to do it, and I'm not even sure they pass us if they win it. That would also mean they beat Indiana, and if they beat Indiana we also probably stay ahead of the Hoosiers.
Notre Dame: Would probably have to win the ACC Tournament to jump us. That's far from a certainty with NC State their opponent if they make the championship game.
Edit: Notre Dame just lost to Miami. They won't jump us easier. I don't see any possibility of Iowa falling out of the top 16 at this point.
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OSU in some trouble against IU in the third. Gulbe being sick and playing sparingly has worked to IU’s benefit, allowing IU to go smaller and more athletic against OSU.
I'll discuss this more in my recap (which will be up sometime after the Kentucky-Tennessee game), but I think the Nebraska win should lock up a 3 seed for Iowa. Charlie Creme thought Iowa jumped Michigan, Maryland, and Arizona just by beating Northwestern. With the Nebraska win added in, I think that's far more certain.
Creme also thought Iowa jumped Tennessee. Unless Tennessee wins the SEC Tournament, that's probably true too, but hopefully Kentucky will leave no doubt.
We only needed to jump 2 teams to get to a 3 seed, so we should still be fine even if we lose to Indiana and they jump us.
Creme also thought Iowa jumped Tennessee. Unless Tennessee wins the SEC Tournament, that's probably true too, but hopefully Kentucky will leave no doubt.
We only needed to jump 2 teams to get to a 3 seed, so we should still be fine even if we lose to Indiana and they jump us.
I'm not saying I disagree with your main point that we have a good chance at ending up a 3 seed, but I think you're slightly misinterpreting Creme's projected bracket. He doesn't have teams seeded according to a strict S-Curve because that's not how the bracket is constructed for the women's tournament. Rather, other factors such as geography and avoiding intra-conference matchups play a role in building his bracket in terms of who gets sent to what regional. So it's not necessarily a given that the #1 overall (best 1-seed) gets placed in a regional with the #8 overall (worst 2-seed), #9 overall (best 3-seed), and #16 overall (worst 4-seed).
Also, it's nice that Tennessee and Oklahoma both lost tonight.
Based on this morning's bracket, the only inter-conference deviations I could see are switching UConn and LSU (if UConn were theoretically ahead) and Tennessee and Iowa if Tennessee were ahead. So you're right in that Creme could've had Tennessee ahead still. The Kentucky loss probably puts Iowa ahead for good.
I don't see a conference/geography reason Michigan would drop to what would otherwise be the lowest 3 seed on the S-Curve (and into a possible Sweet 16 matchup with a Baylor team it has already played), so I think we were probably ahead of them before today.
I was starting to think about next year. Was looking at B10 rosters and reading senior day articles because it’s so hard to know who‘s going to be around with the extra year. Zoe Young went through senior day activities at Maryland after just three years. I didn’t realize that she was a “student assistant“ this year and not a player. Link provides some background. SIAP
dbknews.com
After early retirement, Zoe Young still has a voice in Maryland women’s basketball
Young ended her playing career in 2021, but still remains active as a student assistant and the Terps’ representative on the Big Ten Equality Coalition.
dbknews.com
Bracketology update: today ESPN flipped Michigan and Iowa, putting Iowa as the 3 seed in Wichita and Michigan in Spokane. I don't see anything else substantially different with the top 12 teams.
I guess region plays a bigger role in seeding than I anticipated. I now think ESPN had Michigan ahead of Iowa yesterday and was putting them in Wichita as a closer region. Now it has Iowa ahead and put Iowa in Wichita.
Frankly I'd rather be in LSU's bracket in Spokane than Baylor's in Wichita, so if the Committee follows what ESPN is doing, it's a net detriment to our Elite Eight efforts imo. It does seem like we are now ahead of Michigan and Tennessee, though.
I guess region plays a bigger role in seeding than I anticipated. I now think ESPN had Michigan ahead of Iowa yesterday and was putting them in Wichita as a closer region. Now it has Iowa ahead and put Iowa in Wichita.
Frankly I'd rather be in LSU's bracket in Spokane than Baylor's in Wichita, so if the Committee follows what ESPN is doing, it's a net detriment to our Elite Eight efforts imo. It does seem like we are now ahead of Michigan and Tennessee, though.
Hope you’re right because it seems like IU would get to the 3 line if they won today. The question is who would come off today’s 3 line. Hoping we don’t need to know the answer.
Hope you’re right because it seems like IU would get to the 3 line if they won today. The question is who would come off today’s 3 line. Hoping we don’t need to know the answer.
Creme says if IU wins, Michigan gets bumped to a 4-seed. But this is just his judgment -- no idea what the committee will actually do.
Creme says if IU wins, Michigan gets bumped to a 4-seed. But this is just his judgment -- no idea what the committee will actually do.
I think we're probably ahead of Tennessee at a minimum even with a loss. They were one spot ahead of us per the selection committee, but were trending down. Even if we lose to Indiana, they have a worse loss since the reveal (to Kentucky), and we've added wins against Nebraska (probably a 6 seed) and Northwestern (maybe a tournament team), while they've only beaten Alabama (probably not a tournament team).
If we're ahead of Tennessee, Arizona, and Maryland, we'd be a 3 seed still even if Michigan stays ahead and Indiana jumps us.
I really feel a win gets Iowa to the 2 line. We'd likely be the 8th overall team. The committee must take into account the last 10 games and no one is hotter than Iowa right now. With a legit NPOY candidate and the possibility of two sellouts in the first two rounds, how can they not. Would love for a couple of upsets to happen just to be safe though. BTW Creme has Iowa as the AQ so he thinks we beat Indiana.
Going into the B1G Championship game, Clark (1602) and Czinano (1688) are both in the top ten career scorers. Both should go over 2K next year. QUESTION (trivial): The Iowa Media Guide lists the top scorers by class. What happens with Czinano and other players taking advantage of the chance to play bonus years? Will Czinano have two senior years for her points?
SCORING
Rank Pts._________ Player___________________________Years
1. 2804 _________Megan Gustafson ___________________ 15-19
2. 2102 _________Ally Disterhoft ______________________ 13-17
3. 2059 _________Cindy Haugejorde __________________ 76-80
4. 1906 _________Lindsey Meder_____________________ 98-02
5. 1841 _________Jaime Printy ________________________10-13
6. 1821 _________Michelle Edwards __________________ 84-88
7. 1762 _________Jennie Lillis________________________ 00-04
8. 1742__________Franthea Price_____________________ 86-90
9. 1606 _________Toni Foster ________________________ 89-93
10. 1598 _________Tangela Smith _____________________ 94-98
SCORING
Rank Pts._________ Player___________________________Years
1. 2804 _________Megan Gustafson ___________________ 15-19
2. 2102 _________Ally Disterhoft ______________________ 13-17
3. 2059 _________Cindy Haugejorde __________________ 76-80
4. 1906 _________Lindsey Meder_____________________ 98-02
5. 1841 _________Jaime Printy ________________________10-13
6. 1821 _________Michelle Edwards __________________ 84-88
7. 1762 _________Jennie Lillis________________________ 00-04
8. 1742__________Franthea Price_____________________ 86-90
9. 1606 _________Toni Foster ________________________ 89-93
10. 1598 _________Tangela Smith _____________________ 94-98
So how about Kate Martin off the bounce as of late!!! 😍 And, Kate Martin facilitating from the high post!!! And, Kate Martin on the glass!!!! And, Kate Martin's on ball defense!!! She's a good one.
Kate Martin is very much deserving of an appreciation post! Played great this week!
I love that she's using fakes similar to Monika now once she gets close to the basket. It's done wonders for her scoring and finishing. I'm guessing that's a combination of Kate working even harder to get better and Jan Jensen showing her the moves that make Monika great. Clark is already a good finisher, but I'd like her to start working more on that too.
This summer Can they demand that whenever gabby touches the ball she must drive and get a shot off??? She goes in, gets scared?, and retreats. Drives me nuts
She needs a floater
She needs to work on her confidence. She has been reluctant to shoot threes as well. Would love to see Caitlyn working with Gabbie and Kylie on their driving ability. We need more than one guard that can drive.
I feel like Gabbie was more confident as a freshman. Not sure when she started being more tentative. Perhaps it was less pressure coming off the bench. I really would like to take a jump and have a great senior season.
She's had some really great games so I know she has it in her. We need the Gabbie who took over in two games vs Rutgers to come out every game.
Another reflection on the weekend: I was really pleased with our 2-3 zone! It looked better than it has at any point in the last two seasons IMO. For the most part, our perimeter players did well preventing easy drives through the gaps. They also communicated and rotated well enough to prevent wide open 3 point looks to the other teams' best shooters. Judging by our coaches' reactions, I think they were content with the 3 point looks we did give up (playing the percentages to let the low percentage shooters shoot if they wanted). So as to not let our egos too inflated, we can fully acknowledge that opponent fatigue in every matchup was certainly to our advantage. But still, holding all three opponents under 38% shooting was encouraging.
We also rebounded averagely enough to not get killed by 2nd chance points, which has also been an issue with our zone in the past. (In fairness, that's been an issue regardless of the defense we play though lol.)
We also rebounded averagely enough to not get killed by 2nd chance points, which has also been an issue with our zone in the past. (In fairness, that's been an issue regardless of the defense we play though lol.)
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In the past most players didn't challenge passes, played defense with their arms down or at their side. They are now playing with their arms up more often challenging the offense more. Small changes are helping out some.
The last few weeks it seems like Monika's rebounding has been better. Seems like she is being a bit more aggressive.
Kate was awesome this weekend.
Kate was awesome this weekend.
I think Kate is starting to realize how special she can be. This tournament and the Penn State game last year she was spectacular. If she can play consistently where she was in the title game, the team will go far. Cory Brada from Hawkeyes on the Storm podcast was very upset she was not on the all tournament team. They should expand the list to 7 or 8 players. She deserved recognition.
If Kate and Monika keep playing like they have been this week, Caitlin keeps on being Caitlin, and McKenna and Gabbie get their 3pt shot back, we're going to be very very dangerous
I’m sure They’re in the gym, maybe even right now.
This is where Caitlin needs to grow most on defense. She was the weak link in the 2-3 zone all tournament because she wasn't anticipating the next pass and her movement was late. What's most frustrating to me is that she can absolutely be elite at that. At least 1-2 times a game she correctly judges where a pass is going, jumps it, and many times gets a runout as a result. She could do that more (and be much better by defensive metrics) if she just locked in a little more on the defensive end.
I agree that the 2-3 zone looked really good otherwise. Gabbie is getting better at jumping passes (and she was already decent at it). Kate and McKenna are getting better in their rotations and not leaving gaps in the corner. And the team is making more of an effort on the glass. Several times multiple of our players were competing for the same rebound. We largely haven't seen that with this group.
Its possible that improvement on turnovers and learning to play through the physical contact without getting frustrated might pay better dividends? Improved defense would be great, but is going to be limited until there is a good option for backup point guard. Its asking a lot to be the most energetic on offense and defense while also playing 40 minutes a game.
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