There's been a lot of people saying the sky is falling and calling for Fran's head after out little losing streak. I've personally got a couple reasons for optimism and some reasons to believe its not gonna change. I just listened to the podcast (big fan!) and had a lot of thoughts I figured I should write up.
Let's start with some reasons for optimism. First off, Owen Freeman has been great and with Fran's track record with developing big men I'm confident he'll be in the NBA some day. One thing Iowa's missed since Garza left is a real presence at center. It's no surprise that Iowa's best seasons under Fran have come under Garza and Woodbury. Obviously expecting him to turn into Luka is asking too much, but just having a player in that mold is important, and I'm very glad he started against Michigan. He has the highest Box Plus Minus on the team by far. Even though he's got some growing to do, he's still a plus defender and the only chance we have at slowing opposing teams down. For context, his defensive plus minus is 4.2. The next highest rotation player has a DPM of 1 (Josh Dix). The lowest rated defender is Patrick at -.6. which means the difference between the 2nd and 10th best defender is less than HALF the difference between Freeman and Dix I don't think that's entirely fair to some players - Perkins is quite good defensively, Harding has played well despite being undersized, and Dembele has the tools to be a great defender. But I dont think its unreasonable to say that if Iowa is going to succeed, Owen Freeman is going to be the reason why. And he's only going to get better as the season progresses.
The 2nd reason for optimism is that the other young players are also going to improve. Harding has also shown flashes on offense and has been about as good a defender as you can hope for someone of his size. But he's turned the ball over a ton. That will improve as he gets used to the pace of play. He looked shocked playing against the swarming Iowa State defense, and that was a learning experience. He's also important because he's the only guy on the team that can make a 3, apparently. Dembele is another guy that clearly has the potential and can improve quickly. And Bowen looked like our best PG against ISU's defense, even if he hasn't looked like it consistently. He's another player I'd love to see get more playing time and has the chance to improve a lot.
The 3rd and final reason for optimism is that Krikke has been a revelation. I don't think anyone expected him to be this good offensively when we heard he was coming to Iowa. I don't know if Fran expected him to be this good. Defensively he is pretty bad, but he's also our best scorer by far. He's dominant in the post against smaller guys, and can hit a jumper with just a bit of room. But the biggest reason I think we'll see him improve is because I think Fran is gonna spend the holidays revamping the offense around Krikke.
As for pessimism, Krikke is also 1st on the list. Or rather, the Creighton game is. I think that game was fool's gold. Krikke got so many open jumpers that game, and it was clear Creighton just did not scout him. Or maybe that was new for him. Regardless, he will never be that open again. I think he's probably averaging 1 open mid range jumper per game since then, and he had like 10 against Creighton. And Iowa is not in that game if he doesn't get those open shots.
The 2nd reason for pessimism is Patrick. I feel like we've been waiting for him to make the jump for years. He's 6'9" but is not a good defender and averages 3 rebounds per game. That's less than Tony Perkins! He's not a good shooter. He's not especially good at creating his own shot. Honestly, he's a below average big ten starter. I think he'd probably be a good 6th man, but is Fran really gonna bench his son? And unlike some of the other players, I don't think he's really in line to improve.
I think the other upperclassmen have more or less been what we've expected. I know people wanted Payton to become a star but he's still a very solid player. He's shooting 36% from 3, which is in line with his career averages despite taking some tough shots every game. He's OK at creating his own shot. He leads the team in rebounding (something I was really hoping Patrick could do). Going by BPM he's Iowa's 2nd best player, and that's fine. Expecting him to be a star was always optimistic. Same with Perkins. His stat line this year is basically identical to last year, and I don't think he ever really had the talent to make a big jump. He's a heart and hustle guy. He gets steals and rebounds no one else on this team gets. I'd love to see him turn the ball over a little less, but otherwise he's a very serviceable starting PG.
Finally, the third reason I'm pessimistic is because our shooters apparently can't shoot. Looking at you Pryce. Josh Dix to some extent too, but that's not the part I'm worried about with him. Regardless, we really needed another shooter and its frustrating that the guys who were recruited as shooters have lost their stroke. This would be a lot less of an issue if anyone else had stepped up, but Perkins, Patrick, Krikke, and Bowen are all shooting under 33%. What's worse is that a lot of these are open shots! Michigan is ranked in the 300s in three point defense. Iowa State is ranked 222. If you can't make shots against those guys, who are you gonna make shots against? You can't play basketball without floor spacing - this isn't 2002. Someone has to step up and start making 3s, or else this team is dead in the water. And we know what we're getting from Patrick and Tony, so it's going to have to be one of the young guys.
Now, here's how I'd fix the Iowa basketball team. 1st off, bench Patrick. It's clear we need Krikke and Freeman to be on the floor as much as possible. Payton is a similar size but plays like a bigger player. And quite frankly, if Patrick isn't a guard, and he's not one of the 3 best F/Cs on the team, why is he starting? Start Harding instead. We need the shooting and we need a second ball handler to help with the turnover issues. Not to mention he plays best with Freeman, and Freeman is a starter now. Also, I think Patrick might be able to push himself harder in fewer minutes. I'm unsure if stamina is an issue for him but I know it can be for cancer patients after treatment. He's also more likely to be a scorer against second units, and provides some veteran presence to a second unit that desperately needs it. Personally, 'd start Perkins/Harding/Payton/Krikke/Freeman.
2nd, I'd change the offense to make Krikke more effective. Right now he's not getting open shots and he's not getting mismatches. Starting Freeman might help with that; if teams put their center on him then Krikke might find some nice matchups. But more importantly, I'd focus on getting him mismatches. He's not Garza or Keegan - you can't feed him the ball against their best defender and expect him to score. But if you put him in a position to succeed he's so clinical that he could average 20 ppg. The simplest way to try to force a switch is a pick and roll/pop, but if the handler isn't a good shooter the opponent has no reason not to just go under the screen and its ineffective. If we had Jordan Bohannon on this team Krikke would be eating good. Instead, Harding will have to do. Or Dix, or whoever steps up. But its not gonna work if Perkins is your only ball handler because no one respects Perkins as a shooter. Teams average more than a point per possession against Iowa's defense. Iowa averages around 1.12 points per possession. Tony shoots 33% from 3. Teams should and will let him shoot semi-contested shots off the dribble every day of the week. Now, just because you ran a Krikke pick and roll with a shooter, doesn't mean they have to switch and give Krikke a mismatch. They could hedge - but that's going to give up an open mid range jumper. They could fight over the screen, but that's hard to do and at least forces the opposing guards to work on defense. Sure, you're daring Brock to drive into the teeth of their defense or for Krikke to score as a roll man - neither of which are their strengths. But if that's the worst case for the offense, that's still a huge improvement and is going to open up easy corner 3s, more ball movement, and generally get things going. And that's just a simple pick and roll with the right guys. Fran's a very good offensive coach, and I hope he'll come up with more creative ways to get Krikke better possessions. If Krikke being this good surprised Fran as much as it surprised us then I don't think this was the gameplan going into the season, and this is the first extended break with tape to review Iowa's really had.
That's all the changes you need to make. It requires some guys stepping up and making shots. But that simple line-up change makes it so we are less turnover prone, have more shooting, put Krikke in a position to succeed, and give the second unit a veteran presence. Even under Tom Davis there were down years. Iowa is still mostly a developmental program, its honestly shocking we managed to lose our first two all-americans without missing too much of a beat. But its clear Freeman is going to be a star. He and Harding are going to be a menace together for the next few years and I'm so excited to watch it. I know Dembele is going to have a heck of a highlight reel when he's done with college ball too. For all the stuff I said about Pryce, he's still a top 100 recruit that's playing his first couple games. I know the point of message boards is to overreact, and this season's realistic peak is probably ending up on the wrong side of the bubble and an NIT 2 seed, but I've seen this happen before. Last time we missed the tournament we had a freshman Luka Garza learning the ropes. The 2013 NIT team had a freshman Adam Woodbury on it. This team feels really similar to those two and has a lot of promise for seasons to come.
Let's start with some reasons for optimism. First off, Owen Freeman has been great and with Fran's track record with developing big men I'm confident he'll be in the NBA some day. One thing Iowa's missed since Garza left is a real presence at center. It's no surprise that Iowa's best seasons under Fran have come under Garza and Woodbury. Obviously expecting him to turn into Luka is asking too much, but just having a player in that mold is important, and I'm very glad he started against Michigan. He has the highest Box Plus Minus on the team by far. Even though he's got some growing to do, he's still a plus defender and the only chance we have at slowing opposing teams down. For context, his defensive plus minus is 4.2. The next highest rotation player has a DPM of 1 (Josh Dix). The lowest rated defender is Patrick at -.6. which means the difference between the 2nd and 10th best defender is less than HALF the difference between Freeman and Dix I don't think that's entirely fair to some players - Perkins is quite good defensively, Harding has played well despite being undersized, and Dembele has the tools to be a great defender. But I dont think its unreasonable to say that if Iowa is going to succeed, Owen Freeman is going to be the reason why. And he's only going to get better as the season progresses.
The 2nd reason for optimism is that the other young players are also going to improve. Harding has also shown flashes on offense and has been about as good a defender as you can hope for someone of his size. But he's turned the ball over a ton. That will improve as he gets used to the pace of play. He looked shocked playing against the swarming Iowa State defense, and that was a learning experience. He's also important because he's the only guy on the team that can make a 3, apparently. Dembele is another guy that clearly has the potential and can improve quickly. And Bowen looked like our best PG against ISU's defense, even if he hasn't looked like it consistently. He's another player I'd love to see get more playing time and has the chance to improve a lot.
The 3rd and final reason for optimism is that Krikke has been a revelation. I don't think anyone expected him to be this good offensively when we heard he was coming to Iowa. I don't know if Fran expected him to be this good. Defensively he is pretty bad, but he's also our best scorer by far. He's dominant in the post against smaller guys, and can hit a jumper with just a bit of room. But the biggest reason I think we'll see him improve is because I think Fran is gonna spend the holidays revamping the offense around Krikke.
As for pessimism, Krikke is also 1st on the list. Or rather, the Creighton game is. I think that game was fool's gold. Krikke got so many open jumpers that game, and it was clear Creighton just did not scout him. Or maybe that was new for him. Regardless, he will never be that open again. I think he's probably averaging 1 open mid range jumper per game since then, and he had like 10 against Creighton. And Iowa is not in that game if he doesn't get those open shots.
The 2nd reason for pessimism is Patrick. I feel like we've been waiting for him to make the jump for years. He's 6'9" but is not a good defender and averages 3 rebounds per game. That's less than Tony Perkins! He's not a good shooter. He's not especially good at creating his own shot. Honestly, he's a below average big ten starter. I think he'd probably be a good 6th man, but is Fran really gonna bench his son? And unlike some of the other players, I don't think he's really in line to improve.
I think the other upperclassmen have more or less been what we've expected. I know people wanted Payton to become a star but he's still a very solid player. He's shooting 36% from 3, which is in line with his career averages despite taking some tough shots every game. He's OK at creating his own shot. He leads the team in rebounding (something I was really hoping Patrick could do). Going by BPM he's Iowa's 2nd best player, and that's fine. Expecting him to be a star was always optimistic. Same with Perkins. His stat line this year is basically identical to last year, and I don't think he ever really had the talent to make a big jump. He's a heart and hustle guy. He gets steals and rebounds no one else on this team gets. I'd love to see him turn the ball over a little less, but otherwise he's a very serviceable starting PG.
Finally, the third reason I'm pessimistic is because our shooters apparently can't shoot. Looking at you Pryce. Josh Dix to some extent too, but that's not the part I'm worried about with him. Regardless, we really needed another shooter and its frustrating that the guys who were recruited as shooters have lost their stroke. This would be a lot less of an issue if anyone else had stepped up, but Perkins, Patrick, Krikke, and Bowen are all shooting under 33%. What's worse is that a lot of these are open shots! Michigan is ranked in the 300s in three point defense. Iowa State is ranked 222. If you can't make shots against those guys, who are you gonna make shots against? You can't play basketball without floor spacing - this isn't 2002. Someone has to step up and start making 3s, or else this team is dead in the water. And we know what we're getting from Patrick and Tony, so it's going to have to be one of the young guys.
Now, here's how I'd fix the Iowa basketball team. 1st off, bench Patrick. It's clear we need Krikke and Freeman to be on the floor as much as possible. Payton is a similar size but plays like a bigger player. And quite frankly, if Patrick isn't a guard, and he's not one of the 3 best F/Cs on the team, why is he starting? Start Harding instead. We need the shooting and we need a second ball handler to help with the turnover issues. Not to mention he plays best with Freeman, and Freeman is a starter now. Also, I think Patrick might be able to push himself harder in fewer minutes. I'm unsure if stamina is an issue for him but I know it can be for cancer patients after treatment. He's also more likely to be a scorer against second units, and provides some veteran presence to a second unit that desperately needs it. Personally, 'd start Perkins/Harding/Payton/Krikke/Freeman.
2nd, I'd change the offense to make Krikke more effective. Right now he's not getting open shots and he's not getting mismatches. Starting Freeman might help with that; if teams put their center on him then Krikke might find some nice matchups. But more importantly, I'd focus on getting him mismatches. He's not Garza or Keegan - you can't feed him the ball against their best defender and expect him to score. But if you put him in a position to succeed he's so clinical that he could average 20 ppg. The simplest way to try to force a switch is a pick and roll/pop, but if the handler isn't a good shooter the opponent has no reason not to just go under the screen and its ineffective. If we had Jordan Bohannon on this team Krikke would be eating good. Instead, Harding will have to do. Or Dix, or whoever steps up. But its not gonna work if Perkins is your only ball handler because no one respects Perkins as a shooter. Teams average more than a point per possession against Iowa's defense. Iowa averages around 1.12 points per possession. Tony shoots 33% from 3. Teams should and will let him shoot semi-contested shots off the dribble every day of the week. Now, just because you ran a Krikke pick and roll with a shooter, doesn't mean they have to switch and give Krikke a mismatch. They could hedge - but that's going to give up an open mid range jumper. They could fight over the screen, but that's hard to do and at least forces the opposing guards to work on defense. Sure, you're daring Brock to drive into the teeth of their defense or for Krikke to score as a roll man - neither of which are their strengths. But if that's the worst case for the offense, that's still a huge improvement and is going to open up easy corner 3s, more ball movement, and generally get things going. And that's just a simple pick and roll with the right guys. Fran's a very good offensive coach, and I hope he'll come up with more creative ways to get Krikke better possessions. If Krikke being this good surprised Fran as much as it surprised us then I don't think this was the gameplan going into the season, and this is the first extended break with tape to review Iowa's really had.
That's all the changes you need to make. It requires some guys stepping up and making shots. But that simple line-up change makes it so we are less turnover prone, have more shooting, put Krikke in a position to succeed, and give the second unit a veteran presence. Even under Tom Davis there were down years. Iowa is still mostly a developmental program, its honestly shocking we managed to lose our first two all-americans without missing too much of a beat. But its clear Freeman is going to be a star. He and Harding are going to be a menace together for the next few years and I'm so excited to watch it. I know Dembele is going to have a heck of a highlight reel when he's done with college ball too. For all the stuff I said about Pryce, he's still a top 100 recruit that's playing his first couple games. I know the point of message boards is to overreact, and this season's realistic peak is probably ending up on the wrong side of the bubble and an NIT 2 seed, but I've seen this happen before. Last time we missed the tournament we had a freshman Luka Garza learning the ropes. The 2013 NIT team had a freshman Adam Woodbury on it. This team feels really similar to those two and has a lot of promise for seasons to come.
