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Hurricane season has arrived....

DPL 5 pm Sunday

Quick Tropical Thoughts:

1. PTC #18 will become Rafael. It will likely become a hurricane in the Northern Caribbean.

2. Once it crosses Cuba it will weaken.

3. The track is WELL to the West of Florida. If this track verifies, very little impacts for our area other than rain and maybe a bit of minor coastal flooding. It goes without saying (but will say it anyway), if the track shifts more East, impacts would be higher. That, however, is currently NOT the forecast.

4. I avoid the "what if" game. There are ALWAYS other possibilities. Why add to the confusion?! I'll tell you what I think will happen, and if it changes, I'll adjust. That has served me well for 30 years. I ain't changing now.

5. At this point, the NHC track won't bring much impact to the panhandle (@florida state and Florida A&M University) However, the Keys could see some pretty squally weather midweek as Rafael crosses Cuba as a hurricane.

6. Rule #7. Our team will update you 24/7 as always.


 
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WWL-TV New Orleans

Potential Tropical Storm likely to become Cat. 1 hurricane, expected to move in Gulf of Mexico

 
10 am NHC cone

Due to the change to standard time, the NHC cone updates are at 4 and 10, am and pm.



 
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DPL Monday 5 pm

Tropical Storm Rafael Thoughts:

1. Rafael is primed to go through "rapid intensification" over the next 36 hours. It's expected to be a Cat 2 hurricane upon approach to the Cayman Islands and Cuba. on Tuesday and Wednesday.

2. Part of the Keys are now under a Tropical Storm Watch. I do NOT expect our area (Tampa) to be placed under any watches or warnings unless there is a dramatic (and unexpected) shift to the East.

3. The NHC says their long-range forecast for this storm is "low confidence". Some models are trending West into Texas while others go into the panhandle. Here's one thing that is VERY important and VERY good. If these steering currents collapse, that means the storm will stay over the Gulf longer. That is USUALLY a bad thing. Not this time. High shear, dry air, and cooler water will weaken the storm. SO, the longer the storm is in the Gulf, the lower the impacts will be wherever landfall occurs.

4. We have followers all over the Gulf Coast, so I'll update impacts and threats regardless of where Rafael makes landfall. Grand Cayman and Jamaica are gonna get some pretty nasty weather out of this Tuesday and Wednesday, but once the storm passes over Cuba, it WILL weaken.

5. We've been through hell and back the past month. I'm guessing we're all OVER this nonsense and ready for a good cold front. Long-range models are hinting at just that the week before Thanksgiving. Hang in there. Only 51 days to Christmas.

 
00z spaghetti models….looks like a shift to the east. New NHC cone at 10 pm eastern time

 
Ft Myers weatherman



TROPICAL UPDATE: Interesting split between the European and American model ensembles (possibilities) for the track of #Rafael. American more east (yellow), European more west (orange). Consensus model has shifted more east the past 24 hours, but the core is still expected to stay off the Southwest Florida coast. We get outer bands, but overall manageable impacts.
@WINKNews
 
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Ft Myers weatherman



TROPICAL UPDATE: Interesting split between the European and American model ensembles (possibilities) for the track of #Rafael. American more east (yellow), European more west (orange). Consensus model has shifted more east the past 24 hours, but the core is still expected to stay off the Southwest Florida coast. We get outer bands, but overall manageable impacts.
@WINKNews
Still liking the Euro.
 
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DPL Tuesday 10 am


RAFAEL | 10 am track update is in. Still lots of uncertainty about the path this storm will take through the Gulf but the NHC seems to be favoring a track more toward the Mississippi Delta right now. Changes in this are still very possible as new data comes in. It should be noted by the time it gets to the Northern Gulf it will be MUCH weaker. We'll keep you updated, 24/7.


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