Hurricane season has arrived....
- Thread starter The Tradition
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Denis Phillips has several posts today, with maps, on his FB page. Naples to Perry could be impacted the middle of next week.
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Denis Phillips
Denis Phillips. 1,221,044 likes · 54,444 talking about this. Suspender/"Dad Shoe" wearing Chief Meteorologist. Little to no sleep required during hurricane season
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DPL 11 am update
Quick Tropical Update:
1. Sara will likely develop by this weekend. There is surprisingly good model agreement this far out.
2. If it hangs in the Caribbean instead of going into Central America, it could become a hurricane.
3. A dip in the Jet Stream will likely pick it up early next week. That's where the ultimate question will be. How soon? How far? How strong? No way to know this early. The stalking turtle returns. 🐢
4. Bottom line, IF it impacts Florida (anywhere is possible) it would be midweek next week.
5. We'll be tracking the inevitable changes, turns, ups and downs right along with you 24/7.
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Quick Tropical Update:
1. Sara will likely develop by this weekend. There is surprisingly good model agreement this far out.
2. If it hangs in the Caribbean instead of going into Central America, it could become a hurricane.
3. A dip in the Jet Stream will likely pick it up early next week. That's where the ultimate question will be. How soon? How far? How strong? No way to know this early. The stalking turtle returns. 🐢
4. Bottom line, IF it impacts Florida (anywhere is possible) it would be midweek next week.
5. We'll be tracking the inevitable changes, turns, ups and downs right along with you 24/7.
Denis Phillips
Denis Phillips. 1,221,044 likes · 54,444 talking about this. Suspender/"Dad Shoe" wearing Chief Meteorologist. Little to no sleep required during hurricane season
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DPL 2:30 pm
Up to 90%. Sara is on the way. Ultimately, there's a solid chance this develops into a hurricane at some point. WHERE it goes is completely unpredictable 8 days out. It's just watch and wait mode. Yes, stalking turtle returns. 🐢 At this point, anywhere in Florida (including South Florida this time) and the Bahamas seems the highest odds. Although there's still a chance this could go into Central America and fizzle. No disrespect, but thats my preference. Updates 24/7.
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Up to 90%. Sara is on the way. Ultimately, there's a solid chance this develops into a hurricane at some point. WHERE it goes is completely unpredictable 8 days out. It's just watch and wait mode. Yes, stalking turtle returns. 🐢 At this point, anywhere in Florida (including South Florida this time) and the Bahamas seems the highest odds. Although there's still a chance this could go into Central America and fizzle. No disrespect, but thats my preference. Updates 24/7.
Denis Phillips
Denis Phillips. 1,221,044 likes · 54,444 talking about this. Suspender/"Dad Shoe" wearing Chief Meteorologist. Little to no sleep required during hurricane season
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Looks like a two year old with Crayons made that.12z spaghetti models
Tropical Tidbits page for Invest 99L/Sara
www.tropicaltidbits.com
Current Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits
The latest information on active storms in the Atlantic Ocean
www.tropicaltidbits.com
Euro AI has been quite accurate for many of the storms this year. Let’s hope this model run prevails.
DPL Tuesday night webcast
Review of each of the different model runs begins around 18:00. Euro AI is at 23:00. DP said the Euro AI was the most accurate model this hurricane season. The Euro AI has the storm fizzling over Central America, then re-emerging in the Gulf, merging with a large cold front and then hitting the Big Bend as a depression.
Could Sara become a hurricane? Unfortunately, the answer is yes
Review of each of the different model runs begins around 18:00. Euro AI is at 23:00. DP said the Euro AI was the most accurate model this hurricane season. The Euro AI has the storm fizzling over Central America, then re-emerging in the Gulf, merging with a large cold front and then hitting the Big Bend as a depression.
Could Sara become a hurricane? Unfortunately, the answer is yes
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100 mph winds at Mar-a-Lago modeled by ECMWF on the night of November 20th.
That's more than a week out, so who knows ...
That's more than a week out, so who knows ...
Latest GFS has it hitting Yucatan and button hooking into Keys and south of Florida into Atlantic. Some others show going into Central America. I do know this, the fact it is a possibility a major hurricane can form still indicates Hurricane season is not likely to be over on November 30th.
The Euro has it coming to Tampa as a Cat 2 on Nov 20th. That is nuts.
Euro AI currently has it as a tropical depression landing on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Euro AI has been the most accurate model this year, in its first year in operation.
These were the Euro AI tracks from 5 days ahead of landfall for Milton. We are around 7 or 8 days from this storm making landfall so I expect the Euro AI to jump around a few times. It was showing a tropical depression around Perry, FL yesterday.
These were the Euro AI tracks from 5 days ahead of landfall for Milton. We are around 7 or 8 days from this storm making landfall so I expect the Euro AI to jump around a few times. It was showing a tropical depression around Perry, FL yesterday.
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Denis Phillips post Noon Wednesday
Still looking at 3 possibilities.
1. Storm moves inland in Central America and never recovers.
2. Storm hangs in Caribbean until Sunday and then lifts into Gulf. From there, it goes to Florida. Still weakens somewhat crossing the Yucatan.
3. Sara misses Yucatan and remains strong going into Florida.
Latest GFS does a flip flop and buries Sara in Central America. Models will go back and forth. It's what they do. Stay tuned for updates 24/7.
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Still looking at 3 possibilities.
1. Storm moves inland in Central America and never recovers.
2. Storm hangs in Caribbean until Sunday and then lifts into Gulf. From there, it goes to Florida. Still weakens somewhat crossing the Yucatan.
3. Sara misses Yucatan and remains strong going into Florida.
Latest GFS does a flip flop and buries Sara in Central America. Models will go back and forth. It's what they do. Stay tuned for updates 24/7.
Denis Phillips
Denis Phillips. 1,221,044 likes · 54,444 talking about this. Suspender/"Dad Shoe" wearing Chief Meteorologist. Little to no sleep required during hurricane season
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I still have gas in the generator. So that shit ain’t coming here.
This is good. These are starting to move towards where the Euro AI has been yesterday and today.
Denis Phillips 5 pm
Tropical Thoughts on PTC #19
1. Overall, the 1st track from the NHC on the future Sara is promising. Definitely not set in stone, but promising. We all need a little bit of promise lately!
2. NHC admits this track is a "low confidence" track. Here's why. There is no center yet...at least no well-defined center. Until there is one, the exact track (and more importantly, future track) is impossible to predict.
3. Yesterday, we gave you 3 scenarios. The NHC currently has a track that could easily cause Sara to be obliterated in Central America. On the other hand, if it stays offshore longer, or ends up going a bit more North, it would keep some strength and would end of stronger in Florida. Bottom line, it's still a WEEK out. There IS no center yet. To put it simply, we still don't know exactly where this will go.
4. Models will flip-flop back and forth. I guarantee the GFS and Euro will have massive changes run to run until we get a fixed center and stronger steering currents. So, we just hang tight and keep watching it. But at the end of the day, I prefer to be a glass-is-half-full kind of guy and am happy to see this early track.
5. No, I'm not back to putting up my Christmas decorations yet, but I'm closer today than I was yesterday. That's a good start!
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Tropical Thoughts on PTC #19
1. Overall, the 1st track from the NHC on the future Sara is promising. Definitely not set in stone, but promising. We all need a little bit of promise lately!
2. NHC admits this track is a "low confidence" track. Here's why. There is no center yet...at least no well-defined center. Until there is one, the exact track (and more importantly, future track) is impossible to predict.
3. Yesterday, we gave you 3 scenarios. The NHC currently has a track that could easily cause Sara to be obliterated in Central America. On the other hand, if it stays offshore longer, or ends up going a bit more North, it would keep some strength and would end of stronger in Florida. Bottom line, it's still a WEEK out. There IS no center yet. To put it simply, we still don't know exactly where this will go.
4. Models will flip-flop back and forth. I guarantee the GFS and Euro will have massive changes run to run until we get a fixed center and stronger steering currents. So, we just hang tight and keep watching it. But at the end of the day, I prefer to be a glass-is-half-full kind of guy and am happy to see this early track.
5. No, I'm not back to putting up my Christmas decorations yet, but I'm closer today than I was yesterday. That's a good start!
Denis Phillips
Denis Phillips. 1,221,044 likes · 54,444 talking about this. Suspender/"Dad Shoe" wearing Chief Meteorologist. Little to no sleep required during hurricane season
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Euro AI, which I think I am running properly, shows a tropical wave in the western panhandle next Wednesday
DPL Wednesday night webcast. These are always on Tuesday and Thursday nights and every night when a storm is threatening Florida.
Weather talk starts around 13:00
No defined center of circulation, yet. One is expected within 24-48 hours.
Margin of error for current cone is very wide because no defined eye
18:30 he mentions Euro AI saying the storm will sit over land longer in the Yucatan and emerge much weaker. It has been saying that for two days.
19:40 whatever is left of this after it re-emerges from passing over parts of Central America will hit Florida. How strong and where it hits, is yet to be determined.
19:50 GFS day by day discussion
23:20 Euro AI day by day discussion
25:00 regular Euro day by day discussion
Euro is far more aggressive than Euro AI
They are two different models despite sharing Euro in their names
29:30 Summary
Whatever this is will hit Florida on Wednesday
30:30 shows Euro AI again
33:15 track will probably change 5 or 6 times in the next few days
Everything depends on how long this stays over the Yucatán.
Tropical Update. We now have a track. What does that mean?
Weather talk starts around 13:00
No defined center of circulation, yet. One is expected within 24-48 hours.
Margin of error for current cone is very wide because no defined eye
18:30 he mentions Euro AI saying the storm will sit over land longer in the Yucatan and emerge much weaker. It has been saying that for two days.
19:40 whatever is left of this after it re-emerges from passing over parts of Central America will hit Florida. How strong and where it hits, is yet to be determined.
19:50 GFS day by day discussion
23:20 Euro AI day by day discussion
25:00 regular Euro day by day discussion
Euro is far more aggressive than Euro AI
They are two different models despite sharing Euro in their names
29:30 Summary
Whatever this is will hit Florida on Wednesday
30:30 shows Euro AI again
33:15 track will probably change 5 or 6 times in the next few days
Everything depends on how long this stays over the Yucatán.
Tropical Update. We now have a track. What does that mean?
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06z spaghetti models for the 4 am cone
Agreement on track is starting to form. The other models have moved to the general area where the Euro AI has been for the past two days.
Agreement on track is starting to form. The other models have moved to the general area where the Euro AI has been for the past two days.
what are the chances this thing disrupts air travel next week along the Georgia and South Carolina coast next Wednesday through Sunday?
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
formed Tropical Depression Nineteen, located over the western
Caribbean Sea.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen are issued
under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen are
issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT4.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
NNNN
Euro AI not much change. It is still a tropical depression, if that, in the western panhandle
Honduras and Yucatán will most likely shreds this storm into a rain maker for florida.
Orlando weatherman
THU 11/14, 7:45am -- Tropical Update on future #Sara: Threat for Florida Diminishing
Late November in Florida is living up to its reputation as not being a high time for hurricanes.
The threat in Florida from future #Sara is now low.
Only 3 hurricanes have ever hit Florida during the entire month of November in our recorded history. This won't be the 4th. [exhale]
While yesterday, it had potential to become a major hurricane (as it looked to stall over the hot Caribbean waters all weekend), it's become apparent that it'll actually spend much of its time near or over the land of Central America, keeping it weaker.
Future Tropical Storm #Sara will cause impactful flooding in Honduras, Belize and to a lesser degree, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. There, over 30 inches of rain could fall and with the mountains, cause mudslides and deadly flows. Importantly, by the time it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, it may be just a shadow of its former self and possibly lose any semblance of a recognizable 'tropical entity'. Even if it does survive over land long enough to maintain itself as a low pressure system, it'll encounter cooler water in the Gulf of Mexico and hostile upper-level winds, representing the nail in the coffin from any significant tropical threat here.
Bottom-line: We'll get some midweek rain from its remnants and there may even be some spotty nuisance flooding from 1"-3". There could even be a brief tornado, but it's too soon to say.
Listen, if you have weekend plans either this weekend or next, you are good to go with some of the best weather of the year on the way.
@fox35orlando
THU 11/14, 7:45am -- Tropical Update on future #Sara: Threat for Florida Diminishing
Late November in Florida is living up to its reputation as not being a high time for hurricanes.
The threat in Florida from future #Sara is now low.
Only 3 hurricanes have ever hit Florida during the entire month of November in our recorded history. This won't be the 4th. [exhale]
While yesterday, it had potential to become a major hurricane (as it looked to stall over the hot Caribbean waters all weekend), it's become apparent that it'll actually spend much of its time near or over the land of Central America, keeping it weaker.
Future Tropical Storm #Sara will cause impactful flooding in Honduras, Belize and to a lesser degree, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. There, over 30 inches of rain could fall and with the mountains, cause mudslides and deadly flows. Importantly, by the time it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, it may be just a shadow of its former self and possibly lose any semblance of a recognizable 'tropical entity'. Even if it does survive over land long enough to maintain itself as a low pressure system, it'll encounter cooler water in the Gulf of Mexico and hostile upper-level winds, representing the nail in the coffin from any significant tropical threat here.
Bottom-line: We'll get some midweek rain from its remnants and there may even be some spotty nuisance flooding from 1"-3". There could even be a brief tornado, but it's too soon to say.
Listen, if you have weekend plans either this weekend or next, you are good to go with some of the best weather of the year on the way.
@fox35orlando
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