Uh....permits are "a thing", despite what this guy thinks.
Just because he's rich enough to cart in his own people doesn't mean he does not need to follow local permitting requirements.
Hurricane season has arrived....
- Thread starter The Tradition
- Start date
Just because he's rich enough to cart in his own people doesn't mean he does not need to follow local permitting requirements.
Ridge Manor is where I was born & raised; drove out there last weekend. My childhood home was dry, but houses two doors down have water in them. I know several of the people who were interviewed in that clip, and have a LOT of friends out in the area whose houses are flooded.
I'd disagree with some of what they are saying; my folks always talked about the flooding in 1960, which was about 18 months after they moved there. From what they described, I'm fairly certain it was pretty similar (the gauge that is nearby crested at about 3 inches higher than it did then - the 3rd highest measurement ever, behind one in late 1933 and another in spring 1934. So it's certainly not "unprecedented" as many keep saying.
In a lot of ways, this will be worse than the coastal storm surge. Those are typically a short-term thing; the storm comes, blows water in, and when the storm passes the water drains. It's typically done & gone by the next day and you can begin cleanup. The flooding from the river & lakes has been there now for a week, and in many places it will likely be anywhere from two weeks to a month for the water to drain. There will certainly be a lot of issues with mold from the water lingering for so long.
He works in construction. He knows about permits. He just thinks because he is rich that he can do whatever he pleases.
Meanwhile, Cyclone Dana is getting ready to come ashore in India where 65% of all global tropical storm-related fatalities over the past 50 years have occurred.
indianexpress.com
How does a Hinducane get named "Dana"?
Cyclone Dana develops in Bay of Bengal, to intensify to ‘severe’ storm by tomorrow
Cyclone Dana will cross the North Odisha and West Bengal coasts as a 'severe' cyclone during the night of Thursday and Friday.
indianexpress.com
How does a Hinducane get named "Dana"?
Shore Acres
'I've had enough': Florida homeowners selling flooded homes 'as is' for investors
'I've had enough': Florida homeowners selling flooded homes 'as is' for investors
DPL dispelling the fear mongers
I usually don't address model lunacy 15 days out, but there is SO much buzz and fear-mongering out there on social media I'll try to set the record straight.
1. NO development in the tropics through Halloween This is the Euro ensemble for possible development through November 6th. As you see, lots of squiggly lines in the Caribbean, but nothing remotely organized.
2. Yes, some models are trying to develop "Patty" between November 2nd and 6th. The majority of the time, these systems that develop in the Caribbean in November stay East of Florida. At this point, it's fantasy land. I typically wouldn't even waste your time posting this, but understandably, lots of folks are messaging me genuinely scared to death after Helene and Milton. I don't blame you. So, I take it upon myself to do my best to give you a reasonable expectation as opposed to the "sky is falling" every time the GFS does its thing of over-forecasting hurricane development.
3. So here are the facts. There is nothing out there. There won't be anything out there for at least another 10 days. IF something develops, you'll get plenty of notice. And no, I won't be taking down my 12-foot skeletons for Halloween, so that shows you the level of my concern.
4. People trying to inform is one thing. People trying to scare (showing worst-case scenarios) to get likes and views is something very different...especially after the month we've gone through
www.facebook.com
I usually don't address model lunacy 15 days out, but there is SO much buzz and fear-mongering out there on social media I'll try to set the record straight.
1. NO development in the tropics through Halloween This is the Euro ensemble for possible development through November 6th. As you see, lots of squiggly lines in the Caribbean, but nothing remotely organized.
2. Yes, some models are trying to develop "Patty" between November 2nd and 6th. The majority of the time, these systems that develop in the Caribbean in November stay East of Florida. At this point, it's fantasy land. I typically wouldn't even waste your time posting this, but understandably, lots of folks are messaging me genuinely scared to death after Helene and Milton. I don't blame you. So, I take it upon myself to do my best to give you a reasonable expectation as opposed to the "sky is falling" every time the GFS does its thing of over-forecasting hurricane development.
3. So here are the facts. There is nothing out there. There won't be anything out there for at least another 10 days. IF something develops, you'll get plenty of notice. And no, I won't be taking down my 12-foot skeletons for Halloween, so that shows you the level of my concern.
4. People trying to inform is one thing. People trying to scare (showing worst-case scenarios) to get likes and views is something very different...especially after the month we've gone through
Denis Phillips
Denis Phillips. 1,221,044 likes · 54,444 talking about this. Suspender/"Dad Shoe" wearing Chief Meteorologist. Little to no sleep required during hurricane season
www.facebook.com
Last edited:
I think that these storms are no longer something “that happens so rarely”. Sucks to say it, but it appears to be true.
DPL dispelling the fear mongers
I usually don't address model lunacy 15 days out, but there is SO much buzz and fear-mongering out there on social media I'll try to set the record straight.
1. NO development in the tropics through Halloween This is the Euro ensemble for possible development through November 6th. As you see, lots of squiggly lines in the Caribbean, but nothing remotely organized.
2. Yes, some models are trying to develop "Patty" between November 2nd and 6th. The majority of the time, these systems that develop in the Caribbean in November stay East of Florida. At this point, it's fantasy land. I typically wouldn't even waste your time posting this, but understandably, lots of folks are messaging me genuinely scared to death after Helene and Milton. I don't blame you. So, I take it upon myself to do my best to give you a reasonable expectation as opposed to the "sky is falling" every time the GFS does its thing of over-forecasting hurricane development.
3. So here are the facts. There is nothing out there. There won't be anything out there for at least another 10 days. IF something develops, you'll get plenty of notice. And no, I won't be taking down my 12-foot skeletons for Halloween, so that shows you the level of my concern.
4. People trying to inform is one thing. People trying to scare (showing worst-case scenarios) to get likes and views is something very different...especially after the month we've gone through
Denis Phillips
Denis Phillips. 1,221,044 likes · 54,444 talking about this. Suspender/"Dad Shoe" wearing Chief Meteorologist. Little to no sleep required during hurricane season
But that ONE line coming in just like Milton did!
At around 2:50 on this video, there is a graphic showing that only three hurricanes have made landfall in Florida in the month of November since 1851
Euro ensembles are notably much more aggressive today with long term evolution of tropical threat coming from the Caribbean next week. Candidly not sure I buy how much the intensity would be in the Gulf given much cooler water but it is clear that if a system tracks slowly west in the Caribbean it could be a major system when *in the Caribbean* given how the environment looks. I for one am not going to blanketly proclaim "there is 0 risk of something impacting the United States" because I think that is not true.
Let's continue to watch, without worry though for now. Even a weakening system entering the Gulf over cooler waters could still be an impact to someone.
Still think something will actually form in the Caribbean next week despite models 'pushing back' the development date. MJO and water temps are very favorable for such.
...and just like that...3 low-to-medium-probability invests show up...
My yard debris from the two storms was picked up this morning. The beaches still look like a war zone but the surrounding neighborhoods are starting to come back to normalcy.
DPL Friday morning
Watching overnight models. Thoughts.
1. Gulf is cooler. Shear expected to be high. Drier air also around. SO...
2. Northern Caribbean IS an area where a storm can (and probably will) form. So we will probably see Patty next week.
3. The way I see it, smaller storms deepen quicker and also weaken quicker. So, even if what could be Patty next week, odds are it will hit those obstacles and have issues.
4. Obviously, still lots of questions. We are in "stalking turtle" mode will next week. 🐢
5. November storms are very rare. Nothing to be overly concerned about. Honestly, I hate to even post about all these "what ifs" but considering the buzz is everywhere, I kinda feel like I need to. And, of course, it's my job.
6. My kingdom for a REAL cold front.
www.facebook.com
Watching overnight models. Thoughts.
1. Gulf is cooler. Shear expected to be high. Drier air also around. SO...
2. Northern Caribbean IS an area where a storm can (and probably will) form. So we will probably see Patty next week.
3. The way I see it, smaller storms deepen quicker and also weaken quicker. So, even if what could be Patty next week, odds are it will hit those obstacles and have issues.
4. Obviously, still lots of questions. We are in "stalking turtle" mode will next week. 🐢
5. November storms are very rare. Nothing to be overly concerned about. Honestly, I hate to even post about all these "what ifs" but considering the buzz is everywhere, I kinda feel like I need to. And, of course, it's my job.
6. My kingdom for a REAL cold front.
Denis Phillips
Denis Phillips. 1,221,044 likes · 54,444 talking about this. Suspender/"Dad Shoe" wearing Chief Meteorologist. Little to no sleep required during hurricane season
www.facebook.com
DPL Friday morning
Watching overnight models. Thoughts.
1. Gulf is cooler. Shear expected to be high. Drier air also around. SO...
2. Northern Caribbean IS an area where a storm can (and probably will) form. So we will probably see Patty next week.
3. The way I see it, smaller storms deepen quicker and also weaken quicker. So, even if what could be Patty next week, odds are it will hit those obstacles and have issues.
4. Obviously, still lots of questions. We are in "stalking turtle" mode will next week. 🐢
5. November storms are very rare. Nothing to be overly concerned about. Honestly, I hate to even post about all these "what ifs" but considering the buzz is everywhere, I kinda feel like I need to. And, of course, it's my job.
6. My kingdom for a REAL cold front.
Denis Phillips
Denis Phillips. 1,221,044 likes · 54,444 talking about this. Suspender/"Dad Shoe" wearing Chief Meteorologist. Little to no sleep required during hurricane season
There's that one freaking line again.... just like Milton and Ian....
Same here debris is finally picked up, boat plug is back in/boat lift cover is back on so this storm can die off it's November for crying out loud. Get this season over with already! Just finally getting house back in order after Ian!
4:30 pm eastern time DPL post
12z updates. No changes to my previous thinking. Yes, this will develop. Yes, it will get stronger in the Northern Caribbean. Yes, it will weaken in the Gulf. Yes, the center will probably stay well to the West of our area. Yes, we will get some rain out of it on Wednesday. Yes, I'm updating at Epcot Starbucks instead of a high speed thrill ride to avoid numerous typos. Rule #7
www.facebook.com
12z updates. No changes to my previous thinking. Yes, this will develop. Yes, it will get stronger in the Northern Caribbean. Yes, it will weaken in the Gulf. Yes, the center will probably stay well to the West of our area. Yes, we will get some rain out of it on Wednesday. Yes, I'm updating at Epcot Starbucks instead of a high speed thrill ride to avoid numerous typos. Rule #7
Denis Phillips
Denis Phillips. 1,221,044 likes · 54,444 talking about this. Suspender/"Dad Shoe" wearing Chief Meteorologist. Little to no sleep required during hurricane season
www.facebook.com
DPL 12:30 am post
Overnight spaghetti model runs. Rafael (to be) will be weakening as it passes West of our area. Rain chances increase later on Tuesday. We'll continue tracking 24/7
www.facebook.com
Overnight spaghetti model runs. Rafael (to be) will be weakening as it passes West of our area. Rain chances increase later on Tuesday. We'll continue tracking 24/7
Denis Phillips
Denis Phillips. 1,221,044 likes · 54,444 talking about this. Suspender/"Dad Shoe" wearing Chief Meteorologist. Little to no sleep required during hurricane season
www.facebook.com
Florida restaurant welcomes back customers for the first time since Helene
#97L starting to look a little more consolidated in the S Caribbean. Should develop into a TD in the next day or so, as it lifts towards Jamaica and then the NW Caribbean. Still a fairly wide spread in potential outcomes for this one - a hurricane is possible if it gets its act together, although I'd expect some weakening in the Gulf due to shear. Hopefully it'll stay offshore of Florida and the CONUS but we'll see.
Damn, I do not like the look of this thing. When was the last big November landfall?
There have only been three hurricanes to make landfall in Florida in November - 1935, 1985 and 2022. The 2022 storm landed in Vero Beach. The graphic and video with the history is towards the top of this current page.
DPL Sunday 9:30 am post
Tropical Thoughts:
1. 90% chance of development. Odds are high this becomes Rafael.
2. Favorable conditions and warm water in the Caribbean means it could even become a Cat 1 hurricane before entering the Gulf.
3. Shear, dry air, and cooler water will weaken the storm once it enters the Gulf. The ultimate question will be how strong will it get before that occurs.
4. We will see rain midweek but anything else depends on exact track.
5. This is NOT another Helene or Milton, but we always need to watch tides and track for any potential water concerns along the coast with a storm passing to our West. As always, it just boils down to how far offshore it stays.
6. And so it begins. As of now, I don't expect flights to be impacted, Disney plans to change or your ability to walk your pet ferret will be impacted. Cruises? One word. Dramamine
7. I will update you 24/7 in between taking down Halloween decorations and putting up Christmas decorations.
www.facebook.com
Tropical Thoughts:
1. 90% chance of development. Odds are high this becomes Rafael.
2. Favorable conditions and warm water in the Caribbean means it could even become a Cat 1 hurricane before entering the Gulf.
3. Shear, dry air, and cooler water will weaken the storm once it enters the Gulf. The ultimate question will be how strong will it get before that occurs.
4. We will see rain midweek but anything else depends on exact track.
5. This is NOT another Helene or Milton, but we always need to watch tides and track for any potential water concerns along the coast with a storm passing to our West. As always, it just boils down to how far offshore it stays.
6. And so it begins. As of now, I don't expect flights to be impacted, Disney plans to change or your ability to walk your pet ferret will be impacted. Cruises? One word. Dramamine
7. I will update you 24/7 in between taking down Halloween decorations and putting up Christmas decorations.
Denis Phillips
Denis Phillips. 1,221,044 likes · 54,444 talking about this. Suspender/"Dad Shoe" wearing Chief Meteorologist. Little to no sleep required during hurricane season
www.facebook.com
Dr Levi Cowan's Tropical Tidbit's page for Invest AL-97
www.tropicaltidbits.com
Current Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits
The latest information on active storms in the Atlantic Ocean
www.tropicaltidbits.com
DPL
2pm NHC update: 90% chance of development within 2 days. No changes to thinking. Water is warm and deep in the Caribbean. Once what will likely become Rafael crosses Cuba it will run into significantly more hostile conditions. It will weaken. There's really no way around that. However, as is usually the case with late season storms (ETA) 99% of the concern is water.
I feel like I need to highlight everything these days in bold lettering so I'm not misunderstood. I am NOT saying that is forecast, I'm saying we look for that if anything changes. Noone outworks our team during hurricane season. So when the 🐢 finally develops, we'll have our answers. But to put it simply, no, this is not another Milton. If you want to argue that point, feel free to do so...elsewhere. Absolutely NO time or patience for negativity. I have more Christmas decorations to put up and more debris to clean up.
www.facebook.com
2pm NHC update: 90% chance of development within 2 days. No changes to thinking. Water is warm and deep in the Caribbean. Once what will likely become Rafael crosses Cuba it will run into significantly more hostile conditions. It will weaken. There's really no way around that. However, as is usually the case with late season storms (ETA) 99% of the concern is water.
I feel like I need to highlight everything these days in bold lettering so I'm not misunderstood. I am NOT saying that is forecast, I'm saying we look for that if anything changes. Noone outworks our team during hurricane season. So when the 🐢 finally develops, we'll have our answers. But to put it simply, no, this is not another Milton. If you want to argue that point, feel free to do so...elsewhere. Absolutely NO time or patience for negativity. I have more Christmas decorations to put up and more debris to clean up.
Denis Phillips
Denis Phillips. 1,221,044 likes · 54,444 talking about this. Suspender/"Dad Shoe" wearing Chief Meteorologist. Little to no sleep required during hurricane season
www.facebook.com
18z (2 pm eastern) spaghetti models. If there is a 5 pm NHC cone, it would be based on these models. Windshield wiper in full effect. This is what it looked like yesterday morning and earlier.
