Hurricane season has arrived....

[TC Nole OX]

Denis Phillips 8:30 am post which included the 12z spaghetti model map

Latest spaghetti models on Tropical Depression 19. Trends continue to be weaker with increased interaction with land. Green and blue ensemble colors are weaker than red. Certainly a positive trend, but at this point, it's still just a trend. We"ll continue to monitor and uodate as changes occur. They always do.

 

[SeaPA]

If we get another effing hurricane headed our way, I might just be ready to try trump's crazy-ass idea of dropping a nuke on the damn thing.

 

[Joes Place]

 

[SolarHawk]

If we get another effing hurricane headed our way, I might just be ready to try trump's crazy-ass idea of dropping a nuke on the damn thing.

If we do, it’ll be weak sauce so I’m not too concerned. I am concerned however that this type of activity in the gulf will become more common. If next year we see more of the same, my appetite for coastal living will wane considerably. I’m afraid we are seeing the beginning of significant weather change due to warming. Hope I’m wrong.

 

[LunchBox50]

If we do, it’ll be weak sauce so I’m not too concerned. I am concerned however that this type of activity in the gulf will become more common. If next year we see more of the same, my appetite for coastal living will wane considerably. I’m afraid we are seeing the beginning of significant weather change due to warming. Hope I’m wrong.

Climate change is fake news per Trump and Vivek and the rest of this posse.

 

[TC Nole OX]

18z spaghetti models

 

[TC Nole OX]

Euro AI is currently showing a tropical storm in Pensacola next Wednesday

 

[SeaPA]

If we do, it’ll be weak sauce so I’m not too concerned. I am concerned however that this type of activity in the gulf will become more common. If next year we see more of the same, my appetite for coastal living will wane considerably. I’m afraid we are seeing the beginning of significant weather change due to warming. Hope I’m wrong.

I'd imagine at this late stage it wouldn't be particularly strong - but in my area there's still a great deal of flooding that has not yet subsided a month after Milton. In the community in which I grew up, there are somewhere between 30 to 50 houses that still have water intrusion, and the nearby river is still at flood stage. The last thing the area needs is another large rain event.

 

[SolarHawk]

I'd imagine at this late stage it wouldn't be particularly strong - but in my area there's still a great deal of flooding that has not yet subsided a month after Milton. In the community in which I grew up, there are somewhere between 30 to 50 houses that still have water intrusion, and the nearby river is still at flood stage. The last thing the area needs is another large rain event.

Really?! Holy shit, where you at again?

 

[SeaPA]

Really?! Holy shit, where you at again?

Ridge Manor is still feeling effects of Withlacoochee River flooding from Milton

The Southwest Florida Water Management District (SWFWMD) broke down to FOX 13 how catastrophic flooding from Hurricane Milton remains in Ridge Manor more than one month later.

www.fox13news.com

I live in Dade City, about 40 mi NE of Tampa. There's still some flooded areas here and in Zephyrhills, but the worst area is Ridge Manor (10 miles north of me, where US 301 and SR 50 intersect. That is the area where I grew up.
The flooding there is the result of the extreme flooding of the Withlacoochee River, which registered its' 3rd highest level in recorded history - topped only by a couple of times in the early 1930s.
It is awful there, far worse than the coastal storm surge that gets all of the headlines. Those come in, and within a few hours go out. These homes have been flooded for about a month now. A few friends have sent me video when they've gotten back to their homes; they all have mold everywhere from having been wet for so long. Some houses will be demolished, those that rebuild will require extensive mold remediation efforts before anything else can be done.

 

[DFSNOLE]

 

[DFSNOLE]

 

[speak34]

Withlacoochee River

Since I am at work, not going to Google the meaning of this. Would love to know how the Seminole tribe came up with this name, though.

 

[SeaPA]

Since I am at work, not going to Google the meaning of this. Would love to know how the Seminole tribe came up with this name, though.

There are two theories on the origin of the name. One is that it translates as "little big water." The water level in the river fluctuates frequently and wildly (it's primarily a runoff river from a large swamp; when the swamp is getting a lot of rain there's a large amount of water flow; in dry stretches the river damn near goes dry in many parts). The other translation is "crooked river" - it winds & bends its' way through central Florida. On a direct line, it's about 70 miles from the origin to where it dumps into the gulf - but if you were to travel it in a canoe it's about 150 miles.

 

[TC Nole OX]

 

[TC Nole OX]

Euro AI is still showing a strong rainstorm, and nothing more, in Pensacola. Euro AI has been in the same general area since Tuesday. It has been predicting nothing more than a low level tropical storm and mostly been showing a tropical depression or strong rainstorm.

 

[TC Nole OX]

Denis Phillips 8 am post

Latest Sara thoughts:

1. Sara is still a tropical storm as it moves West. It will drop potentially catastrophic rains on Honduras.

2. In spite of scary looking spaghetti models, it's still expected to dissipate over the Yucatan.

3. Whatever is left as it exits the Yucatan next week will merge with a cold front in the Gulf. This arrives here on Wednesday or Thursday with MUCH cooler air along with it.

4. High shear and cooler waters in the Gulf should prevent it from redeveloping into a tropical storm.

5. This combination should bring us some needed rain midweek. (I understand some are still reeling from our awful flooding. And yet, most of us haven't seen rain in 5 weeks. If we don't start getting just a bit of rain soon, all the extensive growth from Summer rains will increase fire dangers. It's always something, isn't it.)

6. Nothing to worry about at this time. I'll continue to monitor just in case something unexpected happens. I don't think it will.

Denis Phillips

Denis Phillips. 1,226,170 likes · 236,814 talking about this. Suspender/"Dad Shoe" wearing Chief Meteorologist. Little to no sleep required during hurricane season

www.facebook.com

 

[OutbackBowl2017]

Climate change is fake news per Trump and Vivek and the rest of this posse.

You do realize the season goes until 11/30 and it’s only 11/15…..

Atlantic hurricane season - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[LunchBox50]

You do realize the season goes until 11/30 and it’s only 11/15…..

Atlantic hurricane season - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[DFSNOLE]

 

[DFSNOLE]

 

[seminole97]

After Helene it's barely rained here.
Less than a quarter inch in October for us this year.
April and October are actually our lowest rainfall months typically, but we're about 3" shy of average this October.

Son and I took RC boats today to a retention pond in Southwood that we use, but the water was down over two feet from normal (below the outlet), and full of algae, so we skipped.

 

[The Tradition]

After Helene it's barely rained here.
Less than a quarter inch in October for us this year.
April and October are actually our lowest rainfall months typically, but we're about 3" shy of average this October.

Son and I took RC boats today to a retention pond in Southwood that we use, but the water was down over two feet from normal (below the outlet), and full of algae, so we skipped.

Lake Tradition is still too full. I was able to mow about half of what I call the "lower backyard" today... the rest is still too wet.

 

[seminoleed]

Yeah, we've only had one light shower here in Cape Coral since Milton. But, the weather has cooled off dramatically as well, so there's that too.

 

[DFSNOLE]

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

If we do, it’ll be weak sauce so I’m not too concerned. I am concerned however that this type of activity in the gulf will become more common. If next year we see more of the same, my appetite for coastal living will wane considerably. I’m afraid we are seeing the beginning of significant weather change due to warming. Hope I’m wrong.

I considered that when I was deciding between Destin and Freeport. Full disclosure cost was a factor as well

Anyway, I like Freeport at a lot better than Destin in regards to Hurricanes. House isn't in a flood zone either...

 

[TC Nole OX]

Denis Phillips 4 am Monday post

"Goodbye, Sara! The system has fizzled on its crossing of the Yucatan. This is the last advisory on the system from the NHC. The leftover moisture from this storm will be part of the cold front that's moving in Wednesday....with the coldest air that we've seen since February behind it."

Denis Phillips

Denis Phillips. 1,226,170 likes · 236,814 talking about this. Suspender/"Dad Shoe" wearing Chief Meteorologist. Little to no sleep required during hurricane season

www.facebook.com

 

[The Tradition]

Denis Phillips 4 am Monday post

"Goodbye, Sara! The system has fizzled on its crossing of the Yucatan. This is the last advisory on the system from the NHC. The leftover moisture from this storm will be part of the cold front that's moving in Wednesday....with the coldest air that we've seen since February behind it."

Denis Phillips

Denis Phillips. 1,226,170 likes · 236,814 talking about this. Suspender/"Dad Shoe" wearing Chief Meteorologist. Little to no sleep required during hurricane season

www.facebook.com

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[TC Nole OX]

 

[DFSNOLE]

 

[Bank of Hawk]

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The Yucatán really shreds the storms