Hurricane season has arrived....
- Thread starter The Tradition
- Start date
Apparently everyone back home thinks I live in SE Florida including my parents, because I've gotten about 10 texts from different people I know "ARE YOU UNDER WATER DOWN THERE?!?" lol
It was Floratam. Some kind of St Augustine hybrid. HOA mandated!
If you ever have a chance, try a hybrid Kentucky Bluegrass, Featherbed Bent, and No Cal Sinsemilla.
The amazing stuff about this is, that you can play 36 holes on it in the afternoon, take it home and just get stoned to the bejeezus-belt that night on this stuff.
Floratam has been around for decades.
The new stuff goes by names like Palmetto, Seville, Sapphire, etc.
But the truly new, revolutionary development is ProVista. You can spray Roundup on it! We paid nearly $30,000 to get the front yard here at Tradition Manor sodded with that stuff about 18 months ago and it's AWESOME!!!!
Northeast Miami-Dade residents call for help after severe flooding traps them inside
Say hello to Alberto....
000
WTNT41 KNHC 191448
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024
Dropsonde data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
and NOAA buoy 42055 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico indicate
that the system has developed a well-defined center of circulation.
In addition, deep convection has formed near the center, as well as
within a band extending 200 n mi to the southeast of the center.
This convection is classifiable via the Dvorak technique. The
system meets the necessary requirements of being a tropical cyclone
and is therefore being designated as Tropical Storm Alberto.
Aircraft and surface observations suggest the maximum winds remain
about 35 kt, but the central pressure has dropped to about 995 mb
according to the dropsonde data. Some of the dropsonde and oil
rig data in the northwestern Gulf indicate that stronger winds are
located not too far above the ocean surface, but the environment
appears too stable for sustained winds of that magnitude to mix
efficiently down to the surface. Still, this could mean that gusty
winds affect much of South Texas as the convective activity moves
inland through the day.
Alberto may have jogged a bit south now that a more defined center
has become apparent, but the general motion remains westward, or
270/8 kt. This westward motion is expected to continue for the
next day or two while mid-level ridging over the eastern U.S.
builds westward, and the track models all agree that the center of
Alberto should be inland over northeastern Mexico by this time
Thursday morning.
Alberto has a chance to strengthen within a favorable environment
of low vertical shear and warm sea surface temperatures of about 30
degrees Celsius. However, the broad circulation will still likely
limit the amount of strengthening that can occur, and the NHC
forecast continues to show a peak intensity of 40 kt before the
storm reaches land. There is some possibility of slight
strengthening beyond that level, as suggested by the GFS and HAFS-B
models. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast on Thursday.
A 36-hour forecast point as a remnant low is shown mostly for
continuity, but in all likelihood the system will have dissipated
over the mountainous terrain of Mexico by then.
Regardless of Alberto's exact track, this system will have a large
area of heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding and
tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center. Importantly,
the official wind speed probabilities are likely underestimating the
chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the Texas coast because
of the unusually large and asymmetric area of strong winds on the
northern side of the circulation.
Key Messages:
1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. Alberto is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding,
and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center along the
coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto will impact
large regions of Central America, north across northeastern Mexico
and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable
flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas
of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon,
and Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad
Victoria.
3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast through Thursday.
4. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along portions of
the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 22.2N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 22.2N 96.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 22.3N 98.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/0000Z 22.4N 101.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
000
WTNT41 KNHC 191448
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024
Dropsonde data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
and NOAA buoy 42055 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico indicate
that the system has developed a well-defined center of circulation.
In addition, deep convection has formed near the center, as well as
within a band extending 200 n mi to the southeast of the center.
This convection is classifiable via the Dvorak technique. The
system meets the necessary requirements of being a tropical cyclone
and is therefore being designated as Tropical Storm Alberto.
Aircraft and surface observations suggest the maximum winds remain
about 35 kt, but the central pressure has dropped to about 995 mb
according to the dropsonde data. Some of the dropsonde and oil
rig data in the northwestern Gulf indicate that stronger winds are
located not too far above the ocean surface, but the environment
appears too stable for sustained winds of that magnitude to mix
efficiently down to the surface. Still, this could mean that gusty
winds affect much of South Texas as the convective activity moves
inland through the day.
Alberto may have jogged a bit south now that a more defined center
has become apparent, but the general motion remains westward, or
270/8 kt. This westward motion is expected to continue for the
next day or two while mid-level ridging over the eastern U.S.
builds westward, and the track models all agree that the center of
Alberto should be inland over northeastern Mexico by this time
Thursday morning.
Alberto has a chance to strengthen within a favorable environment
of low vertical shear and warm sea surface temperatures of about 30
degrees Celsius. However, the broad circulation will still likely
limit the amount of strengthening that can occur, and the NHC
forecast continues to show a peak intensity of 40 kt before the
storm reaches land. There is some possibility of slight
strengthening beyond that level, as suggested by the GFS and HAFS-B
models. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast on Thursday.
A 36-hour forecast point as a remnant low is shown mostly for
continuity, but in all likelihood the system will have dissipated
over the mountainous terrain of Mexico by then.
Regardless of Alberto's exact track, this system will have a large
area of heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding and
tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center. Importantly,
the official wind speed probabilities are likely underestimating the
chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the Texas coast because
of the unusually large and asymmetric area of strong winds on the
northern side of the circulation.
Key Messages:
1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. Alberto is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding,
and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center along the
coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto will impact
large regions of Central America, north across northeastern Mexico
and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable
flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas
of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon,
and Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad
Victoria.
3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast through Thursday.
4. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along portions of
the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 22.2N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 22.2N 96.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 22.3N 98.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/0000Z 22.4N 101.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
000
WTNT41 KNHC 192036
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024
There hasn't been much additional data to help assess the structure
of Alberto since the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
departed the system a few hours ago. However, recent satellite
images and data from NOAA buoy 42055 suggest that the center may
have re-formed a bit to the southwest since this morning. Another
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
later this evening. For now, the maximum winds remain 35 kt.
Because of the re-formation of the center, the recent motion has
been west-southwestward, or 250/8 kt. However, Alberto is expected
to resume a westward motion and speed up over the next 24 hours as
a mid-level ridge over the eastern U.S. builds westward. The track
guidance is in good agreement that Alberto's center will reach the
coast of Mexico early Thursday, and the NHC track forecast is close
to a blend of the TVCA and HCCA models. Some slight strengthening
is still possible through tonight while Alberto remains over water,
and the NHC intensity forecast continues to show a peak intensity of
about 40 kt. The circulation could dissipate over the mountains of
Mexico as soon as 24 hours from now, but for continuity a 24-hour
forecast is provided with dissipation shown at 36 hours.
More importantly, because of Alberto's large size, it will continue
to produce heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding, and
tropical-storm-force winds across portions of southern Texas and
northeastern Mexico regardless of its exact track. It is worth
noting that the official wind speed probabilities are likely
underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the
Texas coast because of the unusually large and asymmetric area of
strong winds on the northern side of the circulation.
Key Messages:
1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. Alberto is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding,
and wind impacts occuring far from the center along the coasts of
Texas and northeastern Mexico.
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto will impact
large regions of Central America, north across northeastern Mexico
and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable
flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas
of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon,
and Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad
Victoria.
3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast through Thursday.
4. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along portions of
the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 21.9N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 22.0N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 22.1N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
WTNT41 KNHC 192036
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024
There hasn't been much additional data to help assess the structure
of Alberto since the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
departed the system a few hours ago. However, recent satellite
images and data from NOAA buoy 42055 suggest that the center may
have re-formed a bit to the southwest since this morning. Another
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
later this evening. For now, the maximum winds remain 35 kt.
Because of the re-formation of the center, the recent motion has
been west-southwestward, or 250/8 kt. However, Alberto is expected
to resume a westward motion and speed up over the next 24 hours as
a mid-level ridge over the eastern U.S. builds westward. The track
guidance is in good agreement that Alberto's center will reach the
coast of Mexico early Thursday, and the NHC track forecast is close
to a blend of the TVCA and HCCA models. Some slight strengthening
is still possible through tonight while Alberto remains over water,
and the NHC intensity forecast continues to show a peak intensity of
about 40 kt. The circulation could dissipate over the mountains of
Mexico as soon as 24 hours from now, but for continuity a 24-hour
forecast is provided with dissipation shown at 36 hours.
More importantly, because of Alberto's large size, it will continue
to produce heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding, and
tropical-storm-force winds across portions of southern Texas and
northeastern Mexico regardless of its exact track. It is worth
noting that the official wind speed probabilities are likely
underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the
Texas coast because of the unusually large and asymmetric area of
strong winds on the northern side of the circulation.
Key Messages:
1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. Alberto is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding,
and wind impacts occuring far from the center along the coasts of
Texas and northeastern Mexico.
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto will impact
large regions of Central America, north across northeastern Mexico
and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable
flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas
of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon,
and Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad
Victoria.
3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast through Thursday.
4. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along portions of
the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 21.9N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 22.0N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 22.1N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
It’s just a big summer storm and it’s nowhere near FL.
Don’t care.
Don’t care.
Showers on and off. Sun is shining now. Very muggy.
It's going to be muggy until November.
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