Badgers (-2)
I find that quite interesting. Vegas showing Iowa some respect? Bettors liking the match-up?
I find that quite interesting. Vegas showing Iowa some respect? Bettors liking the match-up?
Iowa at Wisconsin - Betting line
- Thread starter AuroraHawk
- Start date
Don't go by the "popular vote" of the polls - UW is ranked on perception based on beating teams like Houston and others in the non-con (while Iowa had a comparatively much softer schedule). When you look at the analytics (which Vegas does), you find things like kenpom, which has UW at #30 and Iowa at #23. Game is at Madison, so that explains why UW is favored at all. It's a coin-flip game.
Just follow the money. Vegas doesn't have an "opinion" about who is going to win - they set the line to attract money on both sides.
Exactly,.. the betters create the line.
It's pretty crazy how many fans there are that don't know this. Vegas obviously has some sort of algorithm to set the opening line, but after that the bettors take over.
Vegas is not in the "prediction" business.
Not touching this one with a 10' pole. I don't own a 10' pole, but I still wouldn't touch it.
Hence my comment “bettors liking the match-up.”
As for Vegas not being in the “prediction business,” they certainly have to set an opening line which will not result in them taking a bath. Any algorithm that is used has to be designed to predict behavior.
It’s not often that you see massive swings in a given line. Typically a few points tops unless news breaks surrounding a team or player. Vegas may not be in the prediction business, but whatever algorithm is used to set opening lines is certainly predictive in nature
KenPom has Wiscy by 2. Predictions by such metric-based sites also tend to influence the lines, or at least appear to
Correct. The bettors do not set the opening line, they set the line from that point forward. And, Vegas is exceedingly good at picking opening lines, and they are almost always in line with the computer models that use advanced analytics - in every sport. Predicting bettor behavior is a part of the AI that goes into the opening line, but it's kind of after the stats analysis in priority.
Exactly,.. when the line moves that just means that Vegas was wrong with their opening assessment,.. or something newsworthy just happened.
You're right- I should have said they aren't interested in predicting the outcome of games, but the certainly need to predict the habits of bettors.
Indeed they probably do, but only because bettors look at those rankings and Vegas wants to project what the bettors will do.
they are generally pretty close. The advanced analytics are the best comparison for how good/bad a team is. Of course, the favorite doesn't always win or cover, that's why they play the games. But looking at team efficiency is about the best metric out there to compare relative strengths of teams.
Someone put some money on Wisky, with the thinking that if the Hawks pull it out, you paid $X for a win.
Of course if Wisky wins but doesn't cover, then it's the worst-case.
Of course if Wisky wins but doesn't cover, then it's the worst-case.
That's interesting. Is last year's data playing much role at this point? I wouldn't think so but I'm not familiar enough with the details of the model to know.
I would have thought that wisky's resume to date was enough better than Iowa's and that adding in home court advantage the badgers would be more in the 5-7 point favorite range.
I would venture to say that it's UW's close wins against the likes of Nicholls St. & Illinois St. that bring their stats down. Now, the stats don't take into account who was playing sick or was unavailable for those December games, either...
One other interesting aspect of this game that I've seen in other games...
Bettors set the lines...yes. It is at -3.5 right now after being at -2. 91% of the bets are still on Wisconsin to cover the spread at -3.5. While a whopping 96% of bets are on Wisconsin Moneyline at -160...insane odds for 91% of Moneyline bets.
With that high of percentage of bets going towards Wisconsin, Vegas is haulting the line going any farther. Vegas is basically betting Iowa to cover this game by +3 and will make loads and loads of money if Iowa wins outright.
They have been right so many times in this regard...in this case, I hope they are right again!
That is very interesting - I had no idea that sort of information was available.
From the perspective of Vegas, I assume this is kind of a screw up. It also means they will LOSE a bunch of money if Wisconsin covers. I don't think Vegas wants to be in that position. Then, Vegas is the gambler!
I’m of the opinion that KenPom is still carrying bias from last season. Not really an opinion, more of an observation. ISU, despite a 13-1 record, better wins than Iowa, destroying us head-to-head, is at 37. 14 spots behind us.
Vegas creates the line - bettors influence and change the line. Those palaces weren't built on stupidity.
Maybe the Iowa-'clone comparison is a unique outlier, but I'd like to know what the explanation is because that makes zero sense at this point almost halfway through the season.
Fran teams are mentally fragile which is bad news for road games. I would take Wisky within reason to a large bet.
Illinois, Houston and Gonzaga are three that jump out to me, as teams that are still propped up on last year’s rankings.
As another poster pointed out, offense seems to be weighed more heavily than defense.
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