Great article on the numbers for what Iowa needs.
http://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/2016/5/17/11687170/how-can-iowa-make-the-big-ten-tournament
After four straight series where the Hawkeyes went 1-2, Iowa finally got things turned around last weekend, grabbing Saturday and Sunday wins over Michigan State to claim a series win -- and keep themselves within touching distance of the Top 8. The good news is that Iowa controls its own destiny to get into the Big Ten Tournament. If they can go 3-0 against Penn State this week, they'll lock up a spot in the Big Ten Tournament -- they'd move ahead of Penn State (currently in 8th place) and would win the head-to-head tiebreaker over Illinois (since they went 2-1 against the Illini this year). The bad news is that they haven't gone 3-0 in any series this year and they'd have to so on the road -- where they've won just four games all year (the only Big Ten team with fewer road wins this year is Purdue, who has three). So that's a problem.
But if Iowa can go 2-1 against Penn State, things still look pretty favorable for them. They'd be level with Penn State at 12-12 in the Big Ten -- but they'd have the head-to-head tiebreaker. Illinois would be the only team that could keep Iowa out of a Big Ten Tournament spot in that scenario -- but they'd need to go 3-0 themselves to stay ahead of Iowa. Again, they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Hawkeyes. Sweeping Michigan -- even at home -- looks like a tough ask for the Illini.
So: can Iowa go 2-1 against Penn State this week? I think so -- Penn State's resume is fairly weak and they've lost several games to teams worse than Iowa. Iowa hasn't had a lot of luck on the road this year, to be sure, but the schedule has put up some large roadblocks for them as well. Their Big Ten road series before this were against Minnesota, Indiana, and Ohio State -- aka, the top three teams in the current league standings. Going 3-6 against those teams on the road is fairly understandable. Penn State looks like by far the easiest road opponent Iowa has had in the Big Ten so far. It's still going to take some timely hitting and good pitching to prevail, but Penn State looks beatable.
So your rooting interests for the weekend:
1) Iowa (duh -- but still, Iowa has to win at least two games this weekend or everything else is moot)
2) Michigan State (MSU winning drops Maryland down into the muck and opens up two spots in the Big Ten Tournament -- which means Iowa wouldn't have to worry as much about what Illinois was doing)
3) Michigan (Iowa has the tiebreaker over Illinois, but putting a little distance between themselves and the Illini wouldn't hurt, either)
We'll preview the series with Penn State later in the week.
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