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Iowa is a 3.5 point favorite over isu

MesaClone said:
Not a bad analysis, and it may play out that way. On the other hand, if ISU can get Montgomery some decent yardage in the run game, the whole dynamic of the ball game shifts in our favor. Should be a good game and will tell both teams a lot about what they have heading into a long season.My personal view is that these are two good...not great...football teams. Contrasting styles to an extent, but both solid at executing their game plans. Both have good D's and that gives both teams a chance to win ANY game they are in.
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Montgomery is the X-factor in the game. He's the reason why I think that ISU can win the game. To me, two of the keys of the game are to limit big-plays ... AND to limit Montgomery. However, limiting Montgomery is much easier said than done. To make it even more challenging for the Hawks ... the "newness" of Iowa's LBs give me more than a little concern as it relates to their ability to slow Montgomery.
 
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MesaClone said:
Harvey and Spears were both Honorable Mention All Big 12...Harvey will be a senior this year and Spears is back for his junior year. Spears in particular played fantastic as the season wore on...a couple of game turning picks, one for a TD being the highlights. MLB is the concern...to everyone's shock, a true frosh (Michael Rose) has beaten out the expected heir apparent (O'Rien Vance).

Campbell raves about Rose, but we still haven't actually seen him in action (except for 5 plays against SDSU) but as a frosh he's sure to make a few mistakes. Kid is evidently a major talent...Campbell said
“The one thing that stood out with Mike … I’ve never seen anybody live play that hard every single play. It has carried over to here too,” Veidt said. “That was the one thing you knew gave the guy a chance, that he was going to play hard every single play. He’s even bigger and stronger than he was back a year ago, so he had a really good summer here and is developing physically.”
The 6-foot-3 Rose was around 205 pounds then and is inching toward 230 now.

It IS concerning having a true freshman in the middle, but that concern is eased by having two very experienced LB's playing on either side of him.
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Thanks for info, but is honorable mention in B12 on DEFENSE really that impressive?
 
Btowngold said:
See, this is where you are off base. Iowa`s OL will not get the best of ISU`s DL this year and ISU`s OL will be improved. The DL`s for both teams are better that the opposing OL, so the differences in other position groups will decide this game. ISU is stronger at every other position group and will not have a QB that throws an INT at the ISU 10 yd line.
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The strength of NIU's D was their DL ... and Iowa's O-line ... with around 3 or 4 new starters somehow managed to maul them. Furthermore, Wirfs and Jackson made huge strides through last season. Not meaning to play the broken record ... but those guys were plain dominant against a pretty elite Ohio State defensive line.

The bigger question isn't whether Iowa's OL can handle the ISU DL ... but rather, can the Iowa OL handle the pressures that the ISU D will throw at them. I fully agree that the ISU DL is far-upgraded from where it's been in the past. However, ISU is still going to have to throw pressure at Stanley (and the running game) ... and the question is how the Iowa OL will respond and adapt to that. To be honest, I'm not certain.

However, as MesaClone fairly and honestly pointed out ... the ISU D is going to have to take chances. If Iowa can burn the ISU D for taking those chances ... then Iowa likely wins. However, if Iowa fails to burn the ISU D for such chances ... then ISU likely owns some legit advantages.

This is why the game is so interesting this year ... is it not?
 
I don't rag on Iowa State, I only hate Nebraska. I grew up close to Ames. If the ISU DL is as good as you say, good. It only helps Iowa get ready for the B1G. If you're a fan of DL play, I think you will also see a couple playmakers on Iowa's DL. You're coaches are smart and they know Nelson and AJ need to be accounted for.

Last year the Iowa DBs were lost in the Iowa State game. Even All American Jackson got beat. Gervase was embarrassed. Hankins played some but is now I believe the next lock down corner. Iowa will be improved in the defensive backfield. Hooker is the next star at Iowa at safety.

I see a game more like 31-24 somebody.
 
ghostOfHomer777 said:
The strength of NIU's D was their DL ... and Iowa's O-line ... with around 3 or 4 new starters somehow managed to maul them. Furthermore, Wirfs and Jackson made huge strides through last season. Not meaning to play the broken record ... but those guys were plain dominant against a pretty elite Ohio State defensive line.

The bigger question isn't whether Iowa's OL can handle the ISU DL ... but rather, can the Iowa OL handle the pressures that the ISU D will throw at them. I fully agree that the ISU DL is far-upgraded from where it's been in the past. However, ISU is still going to have to throw pressure at Stanley (and the running game) ... and the question is how the Iowa OL will respond and adapt to that. To be honest, I'm not certain.

However, as MesaClone fairly and honestly pointed out ... the ISU D is going to have to take chances. If Iowa can burn the ISU D for taking those chances ... then Iowa likely wins. However, if Iowa fails to burn the ISU D for such chances ... then ISU likely owns some legit advantages.

This is why the game is so interesting this year ... is it not?
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How is Iowa`s D going to stop the ISU O? Three new LBs and new DBs going against experienced skill position players and a QB that doesn`t make mistakes.
 
Btowngold said:
How is Iowa`s D going to stop the ISU O? Three new LBs and new DBs going against experienced skill position players and a QB that doesn`t make mistakes.
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Iowa’s “inexperience” on D is overstated by many. I wouldn’t describe any of their DB’s as “new” and both Hockaday and Welch have a fair amount of game experience (just first time starters). Niemann could be described as new, as could Amani Jones.
 
Btowngold said:
How is Iowa`s D going to stop the ISU O? Three new LBs and new DBs going against experienced skill position players and a QB that doesn`t make mistakes.
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Why do you think the Iowa defensive backs are new? The safeties all played against ISU last year, as did both starting cornerbacks. There is a true freshman in the two deeps but he was a four star recruit who has done great things in camp. I think he’s the nickel. If there is one defensive area that Iowa fans will tend to rest easier about replacing starters it’s the defensive backfield. Phil Parker is a great coach.
 
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Btowngold said:
See, this is where you are off base. Iowa`s OL will not get the best of ISU`s DL this year and ISU`s OL will be improved. The DL`s for both teams are better that the opposing OL, so the differences in other position groups will decide this game. ISU is stronger at every other position group and will not have a QB that throws an INT at the ISU 10 yd line.
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Does ISU have an end as good as Sutton Smith? Did you know that NIU had the most sacks and TFL in college football last year, and returned most of that?
 
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theiacowtipper said:
Does ISU have an end as good as Sutton Smith? Did you know that NIU had the most sacks and TFL in college football last year, and returned most of that?
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You are educated enough to know one good DL can be neutralized fairly easily. Two full rotations of very good DL`s is another story. That is what ISU has, including a superstar in the making at DE.
 
Btowngold said:
You are educated enough to know one good DL can be neutralized fairly easily. Two full rotations of very good DL`s is another story. That is what ISU has, including a superstar in the making at DE.
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That's a very homer opinion there. 3 decent dlineman doesnt =2 rotations of VERY GOOD DLINEMAN. LOL
 
WHAT! Are you a closet clown fan?


83Hawk said:
I think they are the better team. They have weapons on offense and can score a lot of points. Their offense is 2x better than Iowa’s.

While I believe Iowa’s defense is better, we really don’t know how good the secondary is....or if the LB’s can cover the pass. We’ll find out Saturday.

Plus....it won’t matter how good the defense is if they are on the field all game because the offense can’t put drives together.
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Btowngold said:
How is Iowa`s D going to stop the ISU O? Three new LBs and new DBs going against experienced skill position players and a QB that doesn`t make mistakes.
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A few remarks:
  • Iowa returns 2 starting safeties. Furthermore, Iowa has a 3rd safety who they likely consider as yet another effective starter.
  • Iowa's Ojemudia saw 3 starts at corner last year and played in every game. He even saw extensive reps against ISU last year - thus, he's already prepped against the Cyclones before.
  • Iowa's Hankins saw 2 starts at corner last year ... and he saw extensive action starting in the Purdue game and that continued through the remainder of the season.
  • Iowa's Hockaday has seen positional reps before ... and was effectively the starting MIKE for the Hawks back in the season opener 2 years ago vs Miami (Ohio). He's a SR LB who has been oft injured ... but he's always been a guy who's hovered on the depth chart too.
  • Of all of Iowa's healthy LBs ... Welch has likely seen the 2nd largest number of positional reps in games (albeit in clean-up duty). He's a guy who has learned all three of Iowa's LB positions ... and consequently, that tells me that he likely has a pretty firm grasp on Iowa's D and what the coaches ask of their LBs. Not unlike Hockaday, Welch has hovered on the depth chart for well over a year now.
  • Oddly enough, Iowa's Nick Niemann may be the LB with the least positional experience ... but he's also the guy who I'm likely least concerned about. He's a coaches kid and his older brother started at the same spot that he now starts at. In other words, he's a kid with a high football IQ ... and he's been mentored by none other than his own brother.
I will fully admit that Iowa lacks experience at linebacker. However, the last time I checked, ISU's Spears had only had sparing experience prior to last year ... and yet he still managed to have a whale of a game against the Hawks. Furthermore, isn't ISU's own Lanning the poster child for how well a guy can execute despite being a new starter at a position? My point here being that Iowa's LB play likely WILL be somewhat exploitable ... however, that doesn't imply that they cannot or will not play well.

As for CB, the bigger issue for the Hawks there will be experienced depth. However, the Hawks do have quite a bit of talent at the position. Furthermore, the Hawks have a pretty proven track record when it comes to developing DBs.

Lastly, there is Iowa's DL. A DL can be awful disruptive against the run ... and it can also force the QB to get rid of the ball ball in a hurry. I'll fully admit that Good-Jones is a stud on ISU's OL ... however, isn't left tackle still somewhat new to him? ISU's best O-lineman will be facing off either against a guy who is entering his 4th year of starting at DE OR against a 5-star wrecking-ball at DE. And by the way ... most folks in the national media expect that Anthony Nelson will be Iowa's best pass-rusher this season.
 
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You tell em GHOST!


ghostOfHomer777 said:
A few remarks:
  • Iowa returns 2 starting safeties. Furthermore, Iowa has a 3rd safety who they likely consider as yet another effective starter.
  • Iowa's Ojemudia saw 3 starts at corner last year and played in every game. He even saw extensive reps against ISU last year - thus, he's already prepped against the Cyclones before.
  • Iowa's Hankins saw 2 starts at corner last year ... and he saw extensive action starting in the Purdue game and that continued through the remainder of the season.
  • Iowa's Hockaday has seen positional reps before ... and was effectively the starting MIKE for the Hawks back in the season opener 2 years ago vs Miami (Ohio). He's a SR LB who has been oft injured ... but he's always been a guy who's hovered on the depth chart too.
  • Of all of Iowa's healthy LBs ... Welch has likely seen the 2nd largest number of positional reps in games (albeit in clean-up duty). He's a guy who has learned all three of Iowa's LB positions ... and consequently, that tells me that he likely has a pretty firm grasp on Iowa's D and what the coaches ask of their LBs. Not unlike Hockaday, Welch has hovered on the depth chart for well over a year now.
  • Oddly enough, Iowa's Nick Niemann may be the LB with the least positional experience ... but he's also the guy who I'm likely least concerned about. He's a coaches kid and his older brother started at the same spot that he now starts at. In other words, he's a kid with a high football IQ ... and he's been mentored by none other than his own brother.
I will fully admit that Iowa lacks experience at linebacker. However, the last time I checked, ISU's Spears had only had sparing experience prior to last year ... and yet he still managed to have a whale of a game against the Hawks. Furthermore, isn't ISU's own Lanning the poster child for how well a guy can execute despite being a new starter at a position? My point here being that Iowa's LB play likely WILL be somewhat exploitable ... however, that doesn't imply that they cannot or will not play well.

As for CB, the bigger issue for the Hawks there will be experienced depth. However, the Hawks do have quite a bit of talent at the position. Furthermore, the Hawks have a pretty proven track record when it comes to developing DBs.

Lastly, there is Iowa's DL. A DL can be awful disruptive against the run ... and it can also force the QB to get rid of the ball ball in a hurry. I'll fully admit that Good-Jones is a stud on ISU's OL ... however, isn't left tackle still somewhat new to him? ISU's best O-lineman will be facing off either against a guy who is entering his 4th year of starting at DE OR against a 5-star wrecking-ball at DE. And by the way ... most folks in the national media expect that Anthony Nelson will be Iowa's best pass-rusher this season.
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Hawkeyeinsoutherncalifornia said:
You tell em GHOST!
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A big question is whether the Iowa D is capable of slowing Montgomery. The majority of the guys on Iowa's D already faced Montgomery last year. Furthermore, the Hawk D faced a laundry list of high performing RBs last year ....
  • ISU's Montgomery (#37 in '17)
  • North Texas's Wilson (#32 in '17)
  • PSU's Barkley (#28 in '17)
  • Northwestern's Jackson (#27 in '17)
  • OSU's Dobbins (#18 in '17)
  • Wisconsin's Taylor (#3 in '17)
  • Boston College's Dillon (#7 in '17)
Sadly, the Hawks had trouble slowing the majority of the aforementioned guys. However, that's the thing about a talented defense ... they take pride in their work and they're going to try their very best to prevent history from repeating itself. Also, past failures can be a powerful teacher ... the D had a lot of tape on itself concerning their failings on run D. Thus, if they learn from it, they could potentially field a much more effective run D.
 
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I love hearing how the clone Dbacks are better than Iowa's. I guess the 5 TDs Stanley threw in his second start (after looking bad against Wyoming) didn't happen. Just like a 170 lb true FR WR beating an "all Big 12" (laughable that the Big12 gives these awards on defense) CB on a simple stop route to win the game. Amani Hooker is better than any player in ISU's secondary. Welch and Niemann ditto in the LB category. Epenesa, Hesse, A Nelson ditto D line. But certainly, ISU has a better defense than Iowa. Hysterical.
Again, are you losers gonna be here next Sunday when you lose? I promise you I won't be on your message board regardless of the outcome because it is outright pathetic to troll another team's message board. Not a single poster on this or any other message board is going to contribute in any way to what happens on the field any Saturday.
 
Btowngold said:
Enlighten me Rook
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Well, not the rookie, but the irony is a troll from another team commenting on how dumb it is here. See, a real fan of one team would not be wasting time on a message board dedicated to the fans of another team. That kind of behavior smacks of desparation and is a pretty good indication of inbreeding or at least FAS.
 
Btowngold said:
How is Iowa`s D going to stop the ISU O? Three new LBs and new DBs going against experienced skill position players and a QB that doesn`t make mistakes.
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I don't know,... to me, a quarterback that chooses to suit up for ISU has already based his college football career on a mistake... Good luck, Saturday's game will be a toss up....
 
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grayhair81 said:
Well, not the rookie, but the irony is a troll from another team commenting on how dumb it is here. See, a real fan of one team would not be wasting time on a message board dedicated to the fans of another team. That kind of behavior smacks of desparation and is a pretty good indication of inbreeding or at least FAS.
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A hawk fan talking of inbreeding? Did you make this post while curling your hair and putting on a bit of makeup? You are a multitasker. You go girl!
 
Iowa needs to be able to run the ball to win. I think Iowa's defense will be solid enough. Montgomery is going to get his yards but you can't give up big plays. The offense has to cut out the penalties and drops and they will be fine. I think this is a close game like last year.
 
83Hawk said:
Please point out where I predicted ISU will win. I said I think they are the better team. I made no prediction on who would win.

For the record, Ohio State had a better team than Iowa last year. Who won? Michigan had the better team in 2016. Who won that one? I called the upset in that game BTW.

How many times has Iowa had the better team over ISU over the past 20 years....and lost?

The “best” team doesn’t always win. Am I predicting a Hawk win Saturday. No. I am not making a prediction.
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I don't know who will win Saturday but Iowa State does not have the better team. Certainly not on paper.
 
MesaClone said:
I certainly wouldn't make any predictions here...but as for the trenches...ISU's DL is every bit the equal of Iowa's and many of you are grievously underestimating them. The Cyclones OL is NOT the equal of the Iowa D-line, and that's something that Matt Campbell will have to game plan around...not what any coach wants to have to do.

ISU's LB's and DB's are better than Iowa's...so make your own estimations as to how that factors into the game.

More factors. Kempt has average arm strength, but is very accurate and gets rid of the ball fairly quickly...can't run to save his life. Plays very smart as well, a bit of a "coach on the field type". Also, Montgomery IS one of the top 5 RB's in the nation...just wish he had a better OL to run behind...but beware, the kid has excellent hands and ISU will do its best to get him the ball on the perimeter where he's one on one with an LB or Safety.

Also, keep your eyes out for Nwangwu when he comes in at RB...the kid is blistering fast and more than capable of taking a long one to the house. He must be accounted for by any defense.

As for Butler, he has more talent than Lazard...much faster in terms of straight line speed.

Finally, this game comes down to strength vs strength...if the Iowa OL establishes a power running game, its all over. Iowa can then play into its play action and will kill ISU with its very talented Tight Ends. On the other hand, if ISU can stifle that Iowa power rush attack...this is anyone's game to win.

Finally, turnovers are huge in this game...if either team starts handing over the ball, it gets ugly for that team fast.

Home court counts for a lot here, so if I had to put money down I'd pick Iowa...but make no mistake...ISU is more than capable to taking this win. We are the 3rd or 4th best team Iowa will face all season.
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Most of your points are valid except the comment about ISU's secondary being better than Iowa's.
 
I’ll bet the spread would be more than 3.5 if ISU had played their first game. Even if they’d won in dominant fashion. My bet would be 5.
 
83Hawk said:
I think they are the better team. They have weapons on offense and can score a lot of points. Their offense is 2x better than Iowa’s.

While I believe Iowa’s defense is better, we really don’t know how good the secondary is....or if the LB’s can cover the pass. We’ll find out Saturday.

Plus....it won’t matter how good the defense is if they are on the field all game because the offense can’t put drives together.
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Huh? You truly believe ISU's offense is twice as good as Iowa's? On what premise? They lost Lazard. You're making a lot of claims based on one game played by Iowa in which the gameplan was probably altered due to two starting O-lineman/blockers being out, and, not to mention ISU not even playing a single game.
 
grayhair81 said:
I love hearing how the clone Dbacks are better than Iowa's. I guess the 5 TDs Stanley threw in his second start (after looking bad against Wyoming) didn't happen. Just like a 170 lb true FR WR beating an "all Big 12" (laughable that the Big12 gives these awards on defense) CB on a simple stop route to win the game. Amani Hooker is better than any player in ISU's secondary. Welch and Niemann ditto in the LB category. Epenesa, Hesse, A Nelson ditto D line. But certainly, ISU has a better defense than Iowa. Hysterical.
Again, are you losers gonna be here next Sunday when you lose? I promise you I won't be on your message board regardless of the outcome because it is outright pathetic to troll another team's message board. Not a single poster on this or any other message board is going to contribute in any way to what happens on the field any Saturday.
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How did Iowa's d-backs fare in that game? Both defenses were lousy in that game.
 
Kinnick.At.Night said:
I’ll bet the spread would be more than 3.5 if ISU had played their first game. Even if they’d won in dominant fashion. My bet would be 5.
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That is an 8 5 pts swing. You know that Vegas never has ISU as favs. Hawk fans would run for cover and the screaming for KF's head would return.
 
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