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Limit rotation to 8 or 9

CentralIAHawk

Scout Team
Oct 8, 2015
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Let me first say that I love the way that Fran has developed this team, and specifically this roster. However, I think this year is going to be a real problem. Obviously, we have 13 guys that could be in the rotation, and most of us recognize that as an issue...but we would likely consider that a "good" problem to have. However, it might not be so good, if the season plays out with 12-13 guys all getting minutes.

The main issue that I see is that we need someone (or hopefully a couple of guys) to develop into our go-to scorers. I honestly don't know if that is possible playing just 20-25 minutes per game.

Over the past few seasons, we have always had that guy that was our leading scorer...and have also always had a second guy that we knew was going to be that consistent threat. I am just not sure you can develop the mentality necessary on this team without 2-4 guys clearly playing "starter minutes."

I think that I am going to suggest that a better approach would be to have a 8-9 man rotation...10 at the most. And let the bottom 3-5 guys fight it out in practice to get into that rotation.

It seems these guys should be starting and playing 25-35 minutes per game: Cook & Bohannon
And is also seems these guys shouldn't be far behind that: Moss & Baer

That is 120 minutes from 4 starters playing regular starter minutes. That should build really good confidence in that group.

Then we would need another big guy starting: Uhl

I know that sounds silly after what we saw last season. But Fran has had that senior leader that has stepped up every single season. It would be fantastic if Dom could fill that role this year. If not, there are plenty of bigs waiting to take his spot.

Then you need a solid guard off the bench: Brady
You need a solid wing off the bench: Wagner (really good defender last year)
You need a quality big man playing off the bench: Nunge

So I think you start with those 8 guys in the rotation.

Then I think you give a big and a guard spot minutes as they are needed: Kreiner & Williams

That leaves Pemsl (surgery), Dailey and Garza (our 2 best redshirt candidates) out of the rotation to start the season.

I think that type of rotation allows our younger guys (Moss, Jbo, TC, etc.) to develop into studs with the confidence that is developed from consistent games, minutes and touches.

That also allows our next tier of guys to contribute and develop as they continue to produce.

And it puts our 3rd and 4th level of guys in the position to work, develop and show-out in practice...and displace someone else in the rotation (likely Dom, Brady, Ahmad and Williams would all have targets on their backs).

I also think this is the strategy that would most likely generate a transfer or two at year end. But with a player higher ranked than any of these guys coming in, and Uhl being our only graduation...well, I'm not sure that transfers would cause all that much trouble.

Just a little different thinking that I have seen on the board to this point.

Go Hawks!
 
I like last year's plan- let them all play and develop. The cream will rise to the top by the end of the year or next year. That was so much fun last year letting them all show us what they can bring.
 
I think you are missing what he did last year. He clearly played Pete and Jordan more than anybody else on the team. I don't think it's any coincidence that those are the two players that developed into our most dependable scorers. If you want kids to be scorers, then they have to be confident. I don't think there is any shortcut to confidence, it's all based on minutes and touches. If we want a couple more guys to step up and start playing like all big 10 type candidates, then they will need extended minutes.

Go Hawks!
 
Fran will go as deep as it takes to get the performance he's looking for. Iowa will have the luxury they have not had in a long time, depth that can deliver.
I'd love to see 11 guys get good minutes AND perform well. It makes everyones job easier and success easier to find.
 
Iowa fans freaked out about not recruiting guys that could actually play at a B10 level and now are freaking out that EVERY guy on scholarship can actually do that....huh
Helps to have a coach with the self confidence to coach at this level.
 
No, we will play at least 10 every game, maybe more. Garza and Kriener are gonna split the minutes at the 5. Nunge and Baer will get most of the minutes at the 3, and Cook and Pemsl will get the Lions share at the 4. That leaves Wagner and Uhl w/ 5-8 minutes a game. That's 8 and that's just the front court.
 
Finding time for everyone and keeping them happy is a problem most college coaches are looking for. It's a real question for those of us on the outside, Fran has shown a pretty good system for getting guys minutes. I think it's ultimately its a good problem, if there is such a thing.
 
I don't call getting 5 minutes as being in the rotation. The rotation was 7-9 guys and another 3-4 guys got 2-5 minutes.
 
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Alright, I had to do this. Here are Iowa's Stats for the entire season last year:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/2294/iowa-hawkeyes

Ya look at that and man, Fran has ten guys playing over ten minutes a game! Yeah, but five guys, call 'em the starters if you want but that isn't exactly right, but five guys averaged 127.9 mpg. That could have been higher, sure. But I dare ya to go look at the Big Ten games and count the times where Pemsl and Cook were in deep foul trouble.

I looked at nine Big Ten box scores. The first four games, the two without Jok, and the last two BT games plus the BTT game. Here are some things I spotted.

1) Take out the Double Overtime Neb game, and JBo avg'd 27.3 mpg. But in the last three games he avg'd 33 mpg. Meanwhile Williams went from 12 mpg to 8.3 mpg. So your 12.8 mpg for the season guy, Williams...went down to backing up Bohannon and as little as possible.

2) In the nine games I looked at, only three had no foul problems among the bigs:

Wagner 11.3 mpg, Pemsl 27.3, Uhl 15.3, Cook 25.3

In the four games that Pemsl was in foul trouble:

Wagner 16.5, Pemsl 21.3, Uhl 9.3, Cook 19.5 (Cook was in foul trouble in three of the same games!)

In the six games that Cook was in foul trouble:

Wagner 13.8 mpg, Pemsl 23 mpg, Uhl 10.2, Cook 20.8

First three games (minus D-OT at Nebraska) vs the last three games:

Wagner 10.3, Pemsl 26.0, Uhl 15.7, Cook 23.0
Wagner 17.3, Pemsl 24.7, Uhl 5.7, Cook 21.3

To conclude part two. By the end of the season Uhl was hardly playing. Wagner actually went UP 7 mpg. Cook struggled with foul trouble, to a lesser extent so did Pemsl. If not, Wagner and Uhl would have seen even less minutes. And there is a mystery as to who was filling in for Cook and Pemsl when they sat? Kriener did in one game when Jok was hurt. Otherwise we went small by moving Baer to the four and playing our guards more minutes. Now all this, to me, doesn't bode well for Uhl. And that's before we add in Nunge and Garza. Heck, Wagner, though he started and probably to protect both Pemsl and Cook from early fouls, could be in big trouble for finding minutes as well.

The KEY is not just Garza and Nnge arriving, but that Pemsl and Cook learn to avoid foul problems.

3) Ellingson was all over the map as far as mpg. To make this short, for the season he avg'd 14.2 mpg. When Jok was out he played 24.5 mpg.

4) By the final three games (that I looked at, last two Big Ten regular season and Indiana in the BTT)

Wagner: 17.3
Pemsl: 24.7
Moss: 19.0
Bohannon: 33.0
Jok: 29.3
Uhl: 5.7
Baer: 23.6
Cook: 21.3
Kriener: 5.3
Ellingson: 10.0
Williams: 8.3
Dailey: .7

Would look at that, there's the 7/8 guy lineup! Top seven played 168.2 mpg!

Last thought. There ya go gentlemen. Check every year, same thing. We start out playing just about everybody. We decrease minutes by or at the start of the Big Ten season. By seasons end, we're at that 7/8 guy line up. Obviously the MPG season stats don't show the progression.
 
I think you are right on some things.

I think that Fran needs to decide this offseason who to invest in at the two. If his conclusion from offseason practice and Europe is that Isaiah is the guy there he needs to get a lot of minutes. If someone else is that guy, they need to get those minutes.

Minutes in the frontcourt should be more 50-50. There's too many good players and they'll stay fresh this way.
 
I think you are right on some things.

I think that Fran needs to decide this offseason who to invest in at the two. If his conclusion from offseason practice and Europe is that Isaiah is the guy there he needs to get a lot of minutes. If someone else is that guy, they need to get those minutes.

Minutes in the frontcourt should be more 50-50. There's too many good players and they'll stay fresh this way.

Bohannon broke into the starting role after a half dozen non-conference games.
 
I do think if the limited the rotation to 8 or 9 they would be better off. You want your best players on the floor as much as possible.

Bohannon
Moss
Ellingson
Baer
Cook
Pemsl
Nunge
and then two of Wagner, Kriener or Garza
Maybe some spot minutes for Williams or Dailey if the guards are in foul trouble.
 
Let me first say that I love the way that Fran has developed this team, and specifically this roster. However, I think this year is going to be a real problem. Obviously, we have 13 guys that could be in the rotation, and most of us recognize that as an issue...but we would likely consider that a "good" problem to have. However, it might not be so good, if the season plays out with 12-13 guys all getting minutes.

The main issue that I see is that we need someone (or hopefully a couple of guys) to develop into our go-to scorers. I honestly don't know if that is possible playing just 20-25 minutes per game.

Over the past few seasons, we have always had that guy that was our leading scorer...and have also always had a second guy that we knew was going to be that consistent threat. I am just not sure you can develop the mentality necessary on this team without 2-4 guys clearly playing "starter minutes."

I think that I am going to suggest that a better approach would be to have a 8-9 man rotation...10 at the most. And let the bottom 3-5 guys fight it out in practice to get into that rotation.

It seems these guys should be starting and playing 25-35 minutes per game: Cook & Bohannon
And is also seems these guys shouldn't be far behind that: Moss & Baer

That is 120 minutes from 4 starters playing regular starter minutes. That should build really good confidence in that group.

Then we would need another big guy starting: Uhl

I know that sounds silly after what we saw last season. But Fran has had that senior leader that has stepped up every single season. It would be fantastic if Dom could fill that role this year. If not, there are plenty of bigs waiting to take his spot.

Then you need a solid guard off the bench: Brady
You need a solid wing off the bench: Wagner (really good defender last year)
You need a quality big man playing off the bench: Nunge

So I think you start with those 8 guys in the rotation.

Then I think you give a big and a guard spot minutes as they are needed: Kreiner & Williams

That leaves Pemsl (surgery), Dailey and Garza (our 2 best redshirt candidates) out of the rotation to start the season.

I think that type of rotation allows our younger guys (Moss, Jbo, TC, etc.) to develop into studs with the confidence that is developed from consistent games, minutes and touches.

That also allows our next tier of guys to contribute and develop as they continue to produce.

And it puts our 3rd and 4th level of guys in the position to work, develop and show-out in practice...and displace someone else in the rotation (likely Dom, Brady, Ahmad and Williams would all have targets on their backs).

I also think this is the strategy that would most likely generate a transfer or two at year end. But with a player higher ranked than any of these guys coming in, and Uhl being our only graduation...well, I'm not sure that transfers would cause all that much trouble.

Just a little different thinking that I have seen on the board to this point.

Go Hawks!
I can see you put a lot of thought into this, but just not going to go down like that. As others have stated Fran will play a lot of guys early, and he'll whittle it down once he figures out the best combinations agaisnt certain matchups. I highly doubt that Dailey will redshirt. Last year would have made some sense, and he wouldn't do it then. With Jok gone, he has a decent chance to work his way into some of those 2 or 3 wing minutes, so just not going to happen. Its more likely if he doesn't crack through for a chunk of those minutes this year, he'll look for a new home. Hope not. There's no way in hell that Garza redshirts. He may be the most all round gifted post player we had at Iowa in a long, long time. Yes, he'll have some struggles, but when was the last time Iowa had a true 7 footer who could score on the block, from mid range, and shoot the three effectively? Smart player, hard worker, solid passer, gym rat, not afraid to get his nose dirty, Woody type won't back down attitude? He and Kreiner are going to have quite a battle for those post minutes, and I'm thrilled to see that Ryan seems to be stepping up to that challenge. Things will happen during the year, (foul trouble, injuries etc.), where the depth will be put to good use.
 
Bohannon broke into the starting role after a half dozen non-conference games.
Jordan or Christian hadn't done anything to seperate themselves at that point. Once JBo stepped up, Fran made the right decision by playing him extensively because it's an important position. The 2 spot should get similar treatment.
 
JBO is going to need a rest this season. He cannot play those kind of minutes every nite and expect to deliver. I think most know my feelings but someone else is going to have to step up and play some backup pg.
 
JBO is going to need a rest this season. He cannot play those kind of minutes every nite and expect to deliver. I think most know my feelings but someone else is going to have to step up and play some backup pg.

Thirty, even thirty-three minutes a game isn't that much to ask.

1. Zak Irvin, Michigan 38 1345 35.4
2. Derrick Walton Jr., Michigan 38 1323 34.8
3. Tai Webster, Nebraska 31 1075 34.7
4. Nate Mason, Minnesota 34 1174 34.5
5. Bryant McIntosh, Northwestern 36 1231 34.2
6. Marc Loving, Ohio State 32 1086 33.9
7. Malcolm Hill, Illinois 35 1164 33.3
8. Amir Coffey, Minnesota 33 1096 33.2
9. Tony Carr, Penn State 33 1084 32.8
10. Caleb Swanigan, Purdue 35 1139 32.5

And nobody we have is going to step up and be Bohannon. And we have our backup point guard returning as it is. It's just that not many are satisfied with his performance last year. But, it is fair to say things should not get worse. And besides Williams we have Dailey and Ellingson to have a look at and see if they can earn the minutes.

This is one of the biggest questions on the team, and we'd best hope Bohannon doesn't get hurt for a long period of time. But this being so important in the scheme of things? Anytime we are talking about seven to ten mpg? I consider that a good sign.
 
Thirty, even thirty-three minutes a game isn't that much to ask.

1. Zak Irvin, Michigan 38 1345 35.4
2. Derrick Walton Jr., Michigan 38 1323 34.8
3. Tai Webster, Nebraska 31 1075 34.7
4. Nate Mason, Minnesota 34 1174 34.5
5. Bryant McIntosh, Northwestern 36 1231 34.2
6. Marc Loving, Ohio State 32 1086 33.9
7. Malcolm Hill, Illinois 35 1164 33.3
8. Amir Coffey, Minnesota 33 1096 33.2
9. Tony Carr, Penn State 33 1084 32.8
10. Caleb Swanigan, Purdue 35 1139 32.5

And nobody we have is going to step up and be Bohannon. And we have our backup point guard returning as it is. It's just that not many are satisfied with his performance last year. But, it is fair to say things should not get worse. And besides Williams we have Dailey and Ellingson to have a look at and see if they can earn the minutes.

This is one of the biggest questions on the team, and we'd best hope Bohannon doesn't get hurt for a long period of time. But this being so important in the scheme of things? Anytime we are talking about seven to ten mpg? I consider that a good sign.
By February JB will be averaging over 30. In the fall, suspect Fran will try to pace his demands on him.
 
"I'm 30 years old. If I couldn't play 48 minutes of basketball 3 times a week I'd have to have cancer." Kevin McHale circa 1987

"I'm 57 years old. If I could find a way to not have to pee every 48 minutes, I'd be happy with my bladder." Me, circa everyday.
 
I think you are right on some things.

I think that Fran needs to decide this offseason who to invest in at the two. If his conclusion from offseason practice and Europe is that Isaiah is the guy there he needs to get a lot of minutes. If someone else is that guy, they need to get those minutes.

Minutes in the frontcourt should be more 50-50. There's too many good players and they'll stay fresh this way.

I can already say with certainty Moss is our 2 guard and he'll get allot of minutes with some at tbe 3.

I dont really think Fran is spending much time pondering that at this point.

I wouldnt be at all surprised to see him lead the team in scoring.
 
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Thirty, even thirty-three minutes a game isn't that much to ask.

1. Zak Irvin, Michigan 38 1345 35.4
2. Derrick Walton Jr., Michigan 38 1323 34.8
3. Tai Webster, Nebraska 31 1075 34.7
4. Nate Mason, Minnesota 34 1174 34.5
5. Bryant McIntosh, Northwestern 36 1231 34.2
6. Marc Loving, Ohio State 32 1086 33.9
7. Malcolm Hill, Illinois 35 1164 33.3
8. Amir Coffey, Minnesota 33 1096 33.2
9. Tony Carr, Penn State 33 1084 32.8
10. Caleb Swanigan, Purdue 35 1139 32.5

And nobody we have is going to step up and be Bohannon. And we have our backup point guard returning as it is. It's just that not many are satisfied with his performance last year. But, it is fair to say things should not get worse. And besides Williams we have Dailey and Ellingson to have a look at and see if they can earn the minutes.

This is one of the biggest questions on the team, and we'd best hope Bohannon doesn't get hurt for a long period of time. But this being so important in the scheme of things? Anytime we are talking about seven to ten mpg? I consider that a good sign.

Dan, while I tend to agree that 30+ minutes is not too much, it is more than a lot of other teams because of our style of play. Many of the players you reference are bigger, stronger players than Jordan. I hate to think we are going to run the poor kid into the ground when he's not that big to begin with.
 
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Dan, while I tend to agree that 30+ minutes is not too much, it is more than a lot of other teams because of our style of play. Many of the players you reference are bigger, stronger players than Jordan. I hate to think we are going to run the poor kid into the ground when he's not that big to begin with.
Which is why JB will get closer to 25 average in the fall and +30 by February, to average in the high 20s for the year.
 
Dan, while I tend to agree that 30+ minutes is not too much, it is more than a lot of other teams because of our style of play. Many of the players you reference are bigger, stronger players than Jordan. I hate to think we are going to run the poor kid into the ground when he's not that big to begin with.

I listed the top mpg players in the Big Ten. You are right, only one measures "down" size wise. Tony Carr is 6'3", only 170. I'm not so sure our style of play is all that more physical. But it is a matter of opinion. A couple more guys that played more minutes:

Trimble: 6'3", 185
McIntosh: 6'3" 185

Bohannon: 6'0" 182

I know, somebody is going to say Jordan is not 6'0", but do we know the other guys mentioned are 6'3"?

I'm not buying that Jordan can't play 30 mpg when he just did last year.
 
I listed the top mpg players in the Big Ten. You are right, only one measures "down" size wise. Tony Carr is 6'3", only 170. I'm not so sure our style of play is all that more physical. But it is a matter of opinion. A couple more guys that played more minutes:

Trimble: 6'3", 185
McIntosh: 6'3" 185

Bohannon: 6'0" 182

I know, somebody is going to say Jordan is not 6'0", but do we know the other guys mentioned are 6'3"?

I'm not buying that Jordan can't play 30 mpg when he just did last year.

yes he did...so thats' that.

Bohannon minutes will also be determined by the play of others. If we can get some good play from CW & BE as backups...then that will allow Fran to spell him more....IF NOT...then Bohannon will need to play....alot.
 
Which is why JB will get closer to 25 average in the fall and +30 by February, to average in the high 20s for the year.

I actually do agree Jordan will be given breaks, especially in early season blow outs.
 
As he should be getting breaks in early season blowouts.......if he were chasing our daughters around he would have plenty of energy! So that is that!
 
Iowa runs harder and pushes harder than other teams, so minutes for Iowa won't be as high. If you are deep, take advantage of it. Use it as an asset. Put in a sub and have him run his man off the court. Then the starter comes back fresh against a tired defender. Use your depth. It is also a recruiting tool to show prospective players they will have a chance to get minutes, not just sit on the bench while only 7/8 guys get all the minutes. Plus, we all saw how many Hawks got better last year as so many got experience. Fran develops players by spreading minutes. He knows what the hell he is doing. It is not like hs where you can get by with seven guys a game.
 
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No, we will play at least 10 every game, maybe more. Garza and Kriener are gonna split the minutes at the 5. Nunge and Baer will get most of the minutes at the 3, and Cook and Pemsl will get the Lions share at the 4. That leaves Wagner and Uhl w/ 5-8 minutes a game. That's 8 and that's just the front court.
I agree Uhl & Wagner will have their spots I could see depending on matchups 12-15 mins for some games and virtually none for others. Each have a skill set that can contribute, but in my opinion they will be role players. The other 6 will battle for the majority of the minutes.

In the backcourt, JBo (30+) & Moss (25+) are the starters. Williams, Dailey & Ellingson will compete for the remaining 20-25 mins per game.

I love the potential of this team, but the Guard depth is scary.
 
I listed the top mpg players in the Big Ten. You are right, only one measures "down" size wise. Tony Carr is 6'3", only 170. I'm not so sure our style of play is all that more physical. But it is a matter of opinion. A couple more guys that played more minutes:

Trimble: 6'3", 185
McIntosh: 6'3" 185

Bohannon: 6'0" 182

I know, somebody is going to say Jordan is not 6'0", but do we know the other guys mentioned are 6'3"?

I'm not buying that Jordan can't play 30 mpg when he just did last year.
Jbo sure didn't look run down at the end of last year. He seemed to get stronger and played his best ball, and most minutes at the end of the year. This is even considering the cummulative effect of a long season. I've never been a big believer that these kids can't play well for 30 minutes a game. Their young, very healthy , in great shape. All of the games are on TV, and they have the ridiculous number of TV time outs to rest for 4 or 5 minutes. Now if he was carrying an extra 30 pounds around with him, like some of us older guys, I could see the issue. :oops:
 
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Besides a few guys......J Bo, Cook, maybe Moss on nights he is hot, I hope Fran can get these guys playing with a type of all-out defensive intensity that doesn't allow them to play a really high number of minutes, because they would be too exhausted.

If this team is going to rise up, it will be because they start playing some serious defense. A deep team can be a high-energy defensive team, even in the grind of late season conference games.
 
Maybe you bring in a second unit that really likes to use the full court press, ( or 3/4 court press) especially if/when JBo needs a break.

I can see CW at the point of that press, Wagners speed in the middle to jump the passing lane along with Uhl's wingspan at one wing and Daily at the other. Kreiner/Garza/ Nunge deep. 5 minutes of high intensity press until the starting unit is ready to come back in. Obviously Moss and Baer could fit in there as well.

It certainly could get CW, Wagner, Uhl and Daily some minutes and take advantage of their strengths.

I was hoping to see more of that last year. According to the Hawk Central Podcast, Mark Emmert had one of the coaches tell him they will press more this year.
 
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I really like that idea. If you have more of a standard 8-10 rotation, then you could also have a bit of a designated "pressing" unit. And I also think you are correct in that several of the guys that I believe might struggle to get into that shorter rotation would be perfect in more of a pressing unit:

5: Garza (smart & well trained/coached, rim protector)
4: Uhl (experienced, could avoid those half court sets where he looks bad)
3: Wagner (best athlete on team, likes to defend)
2: Dailey (long, athletic, energetic)
1: Williams (perfect controlled environment to limit what he is asked to do)

Great idea.
I bet the coaches are looking at that. :)

Go Hawks!
 
I really like that idea. If you have more of a standard 8-10 rotation, then you could also have a bit of a designated "pressing" unit. And I also think you are correct in that several of the guys that I believe might struggle to get into that shorter rotation would be perfect in more of a pressing unit:

5: Garza (smart & well trained/coached, rim protector)
4: Uhl (experienced, could avoid those half court sets where he looks bad)
3: Wagner (best athlete on team, likes to defend)
2: Dailey (long, athletic, energetic)
1: Williams (perfect controlled environment to limit what he is asked to do)

Great idea.
I bet the coaches are looking at that. :)

Go Hawks!

You may have trouble getting much offense from that unit but it's interesting.
 
You may have trouble getting much offense from that unit but it's interesting.
I'm not crazy about that unit either, unless their consistantly turning the opponent over. You still have to score, or face going into those long droughts we've seen in the past. Not much scoring punch there, nor someone to get the ball into Garza. The caveat there of course is we don't know what we have in Dailey so......
 
Iowa runs harder and pushes harder than other teams, so minutes for Iowa won't be as high. If you are deep, take advantage of it. Use it as an asset. Put in a sub and have him run his man off the court. Then the starter comes back fresh against a tired defender. Use your depth. It is also a recruiting tool to show prospective players they will have a chance to get minutes, not just sit on the bench while only 7/8 guys get all the minutes. Plus, we all saw how many Hawks got better last year as so many got experience. Fran develops players by spreading minutes. He knows what the hell he is doing. It is not like hs where you can get by with seven guys a game.
I like playing deeper rotations (like Davis and McCaffery) vs giving the starters the majority of minutes (like Alford). If you want a starting until playing 25-35 minutes Steve was the man. There's more to it than playing rotations, but I don't think it's a coincidence that Davis and McCaffery have had more consistency.

Would Jok have made the leap he did as a sophomore, if he had to earn time in practice, rather than playing nearly 10 minutes per game? Would Olaseni have become a good player for us with less game time? IMO you get more short term efficiency by playing a small rotation, but a deeper bench by giving more guys game time. You can only replicate so much in closed practices.

There's a big difference between an 8 and 10 man rotation. I really think Fran can use 10 effectively with the end of the bench fluctuating more based on play and match ups.
 
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