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March 12 ESPN Bracketology (Final Edition): IOWA remains an 8 Seed (in Birmingham). Bracket Matrix has them as a 9 Seed

Iowa would probably be a 4 seed, too, if you change Eastern Illinois to a win (or if we had not played).

As you can see below, IU and Iowa both have 5-8 Quad 1 records. The only difference in their resumes, really, is Quad 4; IU is 6-0, Iowa is 5-1.

How badly should Iowa get punished for that Quad 4 loss? Right now, it looks like we are getting punished 3 seed lines (projected at a 7 seed instead of a 4 seed).

Today's NET rankings:


NET
Rank..Previous..Record...Road..Neutral..Home..Quad1...Quad 2...Quad 3...Quad 4


55PurdueBig Ten24-57-34-013-29-45-15-05-0
2520MarylandBig Ten20-102-82-116-13-96-13-08-0
2928IndianaBig Ten20-105-71-114-25-86-23-06-0
3131Michigan St.Big Ten18-115-72-211-26-95-13-14-0
3232RutgersBig Ten18-114-60-114-46-63-22-37-0
3333IowaBig Ten19-114-71-214-25-88-21-05-1
3636IllinoisBig Ten19-103-62-214-23-96-13-07-0
4641NorthwesternBig Ten20-106-41-113-57-54-51-08-0
5455MichiganBig Ten17-123-52-312-43-106-14-04-1
5660Penn St.Big Ten18-124-72-112-44-74-54-06-0
5964Ohio St.Big Ten13-171-92-210-63-114-50-06-1
7574WisconsinBig Ten16-124-63-19-56-64-51-15-0
9394NebraskaBig Ten15-153-91-211-43-104-52-06-0
240239MinnesotaBig Ten7-201-91-15-101-110-71-15-1
Wouldn't injuries have to play into that result as well? I don't recall but were Cmac and Kris both out? 3 seed lines for a Quad 4 loss? That seems heavy..especially in December.
 
I'm surprised that they are still going with Purdue as a #1 seed. They are 3-4 in February.
Will see how the B1G tournament plays out. That'll affect their #1 or #2 seed. UCLA is right there

Assuming Purdue beat Wisconsin and Illinois... Drop either of those, they would have to drop

some have Purdue as a 2 seed; Purdue is at Wisconsin tonight. Purdue is just a 4 point favorite
 
Wouldn't injuries have to play into that result as well? I don't recall but were Cmac and Kris both out? 3 seed lines for a Quad 4 loss? That seems heavy..especially in December.
True but we also didn’t have Kris for our smack down of Iowa State.

Whether they look that deep I have no idea. But one of the bottom 10 teams in the country, our bench should still win comfortably by 20 points.
 
Wouldn't injuries have to play into that result as well? I don't recall but were Cmac and Kris both out? 3 seed lines for a Quad 4 loss? That seems heavy..especially in December.


Yep, Cmac and Kris were both out

The starters vs Eastern Illinois were:

Ulis
Perkins
PMac
Payton
Filip

Bowen (13 min) and Dix (11 min) came off the bench. Josh O played 3 minutes.

Iowa shot like crap (39% overall and 21% from 3). They also missed 12 free throws.

EIU shot 60% overall and 40% from three.
 
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I got to think with the we win Indiana and 1-2 wins in the BTT (assuming no Nebraska disaster ) we make it up to 6. Some teams are always going to fade the last couple of weeks.
 
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How is Maryland ranked so high? I don’t think they get out of the first round of the NCAA tourney. Haven’t been impressed with them at all this season.

Good question. Maryland, a projected 7 seed, has only have 3 quad 1 wins vs 5 for Iowa.

Here are today's NET rankings with the Quad 1 records in bold.


NET
Rank..Previous..Record...Road..Neutral..Home..Quad1...Quad 2...Quad 3...Quad 4


55PurdueBig Ten24-57-34-013-29-45-15-05-0
2520MarylandBig Ten20-102-82-116-13-96-13-08-0
2928IndianaBig Ten20-105-71-114-25-86-23-06-0
3131Michigan St.Big Ten18-115-72-211-26-95-13-14-0
3232RutgersBig Ten18-114-60-114-46-63-22-37-0
3333IowaBig Ten19-114-71-214-25-88-21-05-1
3636IllinoisBig Ten19-103-62-214-23-96-13-07-0
4641NorthwesternBig Ten20-106-41-113-57-54-51-08-0
5455MichiganBig Ten17-123-52-312-43-106-14-04-1
5660Penn St.Big Ten18-124-72-112-44-74-54-06-0
5964Ohio St.Big Ten13-171-92-210-63-114-50-06-1
7574WisconsinBig Ten16-124-63-19-56-64-51-15-0
9394NebraskaBig Ten15-153-91-211-43-104-52-06-0
240239MinnesotaBig Ten7-201-91-15-101-110-71-15-1
 
Iowa would probably be a 4 seed, too, if you change Eastern Illinois to a win (or if we had not played).

As you can see below, IU and Iowa both have 5-8 Quad 1 records. The only difference in their resumes, really, is Quad 4; IU is 6-0, Iowa is 5-1.

How badly should Iowa get punished for that Quad 4 loss? Right now, it looks like we are getting punished 3 seed lines (projected at a 7 seed instead of a 4 seed).

Today's NET rankings:


NET
Rank..Previous..Record...Road..Neutral..Home..Quad1...Quad 2...Quad 3...Quad 4


55PurdueBig Ten24-57-34-013-29-45-15-05-0
2520MarylandBig Ten20-102-82-116-13-96-13-08-0
2928IndianaBig Ten20-105-71-114-25-86-23-06-0
3131Michigan St.Big Ten18-115-72-211-26-95-13-14-0
3232RutgersBig Ten18-114-60-114-46-63-22-37-0
3333IowaBig Ten19-114-71-214-25-88-21-05-1
3636IllinoisBig Ten19-103-62-214-23-96-13-07-0
4641NorthwesternBig Ten20-106-41-113-57-54-51-08-0
5455MichiganBig Ten17-123-52-312-43-106-14-04-1
5660Penn St.Big Ten18-124-72-112-44-74-54-06-0
5964Ohio St.Big Ten13-171-92-210-63-114-50-06-1
7574WisconsinBig Ten16-124-63-19-56-64-51-15-0
9394NebraskaBig Ten15-153-91-211-43-104-52-06-0
240239MinnesotaBig Ten7-201-91-15-101-110-71-15-1
Well, that would be objectively unfair. A dumb loss in a game without 2 starters over 2 months ago costs 3 seed lines?

It can't be ..... can it?
 
Hawks have Q2 wins against Michigan, Clemson, Rutgers, NW, Illinois and MSU. Of those teams, Rutgers, Illinois and MSU all are close to the top 30 which would make them Q1 wins.

Even more reason to hope Illinois can beat Mich tonight.
 
What's the seed that gives us the easiest route to the sweet 16? After that I'm sure there's no easy route unless you get lucky and get a Cinderella team that runs out of mojo.
 
As of today, March 3, TEN B1G Teams are projected by ESPN to make the Big Dance.

Iowa is projected as a 7 seed in the East Region (New York) and would face #10 seed Boise State with the winner facing #2 Texas/#15 Eastern Washington in Denver.

Michigan is the 3rd team OUT. Penn State is the very last team in.


The 10 B1G Teams:

1 Purdue
4 Indiana
6 Northwestern
7 IOWA
7 Michigan State
8 Maryland
8 Illinois
9 Rutgers @MrsScrew
11 Penn State (LAST TEAM IN)
11 Wisconsin (LAST 4 IN)



Link to full bracket:





82 brackets in Bracket Matrix currently have Iowa as the top 8 seed.

Link:

 
As of today, March 3, TEN B1G Teams are projected by ESPN to make the Big Dance.

Iowa is projected as a 7 seed in the East Region (New York) and would face #10 seed Boise State with the winner facing #2 Texas/#15 Eastern Washington in Denver.

Michigan is the 3rd team OUT. Penn State is the very last team in.


The 10 B1G Teams:

1 Purdue
4 Indiana
6 Northwestern
7 IOWA
7 Michigan State
8 Maryland
8 Illinois
9 Rutgers @MrsScrew
11 Penn State (LAST TEAM IN)
11 Wisconsin (LAST 4 IN)



Link to full bracket:





82 brackets in Bracket Matrix currently have Iowa as the top 8 seed.

Link:

Would hate to play Boise State. The committee would really be screwing the Hawks over with that match up.
 
Now that several teams, B1G and others, ranked above us, have stumbled, I would hope we have the opportunity to pummell Debby and perhaps our first BTT foe, and move up to a five.
I don’t think a 5 is on the table, without a big 10 tournament title.

But I would love to see them get a 6. A 6 would be huuuuuuge!!
 
I demand a Sweet 16, that is all! It's been FAR too long and would be so cool to actually enjoy several days where Iowa is in the S16 instead of ruining the rest of the tourney after getting bounced the opening weekend.

Outside of that nuts Tennessee game in '19, Iowa's recent 2nd round games haven't been very close which makes it all the more maddening! The time is now...
 
Would hate to play Boise State. The committee would really be screwing the Hawks over with that match up.
No way BIG deserves 10 spots. No way a 6-11 conference record should even be considered. West Virginia. ISU still a six seed? Crazy. Allegedly because their league is so tough. Well, looking at their schedule, the best teams on their non-conference schedule kicked their ass. UCONN, Missouri and Iowa. North Carolina and Villanova were losing regularly early on and ISU barely squeezed by both.
 
I hope that the statements some have made about the NET rankings not being the end all are true. This whole Big 12 thing has me flummoxed. Seems to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Team #1, is ranked in the Top 25, then they play and lose to another ranked team, Team #2. Team #2 now has a win against a ranked team so they bolster that resume. Meanwhile the Big Ten has few ranked teams so when they play each other they cant seem to get good quality wins and with the parity, clearly with 6 teams tied for 2nd right now at 11-8, it looks like we are weak. Maybe we are. I suspect not though.

As an example, right now, the Big 12 has 5 teams in the top 20 NET. The Big Ten 1.
The Big 12 has 7 teams in the top 30 NET and the Big Ten 3.

So this also seems to massively affect a teams Quad 1 wins of course. A home win against a top 30 being a Quad 1. How is this not a huge flaw?
 
Dave Ommen is the founder of Bracketville.

As of this morning, March 3, he has Iowa as a 7 seed in the East Region (New York) facing #10 Mississippi State with the winner playing #2 Baylor/#15 Vermont in Denver.

Penn State is his last team in. Michigan is his 4th team OUT.

He has 10 B1G teams in:

1 Purdue (#4 overall seed)
4 Indiana (#13 overall seed)
6 Michigan State (#23 overall seed)
7 Northwestern (#25 overall seed)
7 IOWA (#28 overall seed)
8 Maryland (#30 overall seed)
8 Illinois (#32 overall seed)
10 Rutgers (Last 4 byes) (#39 overall seed)
11 Wisconsin (LAST 4 in) (#45 overall seed)
11 Penn State (LAST team in) (#46 overall seed)


Link:

 
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No way BIG deserves 10 spots. No way a 6-11 conference record should even be considered. West Virginia. ISU still a six seed? Crazy. Allegedly because their league is so tough. Well, looking at their schedule, the best teams on their non-conference schedule kicked their ass. UCONN, Missouri and Iowa. North Carolina and Villanova were losing regularly early on and ISU barely squeezed by both.
It seems like the NET gives more credit to losing a Quad 1 game than winning a lower Quad. Which makes zero sense.
 
How's a 6 seed sound?

Mike DeCourcy writes for The Sporting News and is a Big Ten Network Studio Analyst.

In his bracket, he has Penn State as the 2nd team OUT and Michigan as the 5th team OUT.

He has 9 B1G teams in.

His 9 B1G Teams:

1 Purdue
4 Indiana
6 IOWA
7 Northwestern
7 Illinois
8 Michigan State
8 Maryland
9 Rutgers @MrsScrew
12 Wisconsin (one of Last 4 IN)


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How's a 6 seed sound?

Mike DeCourcy writes for The Sporting News and is a Big Ten Network Studio Analyst.

In his bracket, he has Penn State as the 2nd team OUT and Michigan as the 5th team OUT.

He has 9 B1G teams in.

His 9 B1G Teams:

1 Purdue
4 Indiana
6 IOWA
7 Northwestern
7 Illinois
8 Michigan State
8 Maryland
9 Rutgers @MrsScrew
12 Wisconsin (one of Last 4 IN)


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FqUaMsUakAA__xS



FqUaLG-aQAAOEfT
I would LOVE this draw.
 
Yesterday, Lunardi had the Hawks an 8 seed - playing NC State and then Alabama - in Birmingham. I can't image anything worse.

But today a 7 in Denver playing Texas in RD 2 if they make it that far. I guess I'll take it if that's what happens.
 
Yesterday, Lunardi had the Hawks an 8 seed - playing NC State and then Alabama - in Birmingham. I can't image anything worse.

But today a 7 in Denver playing Texas in RD 2 if they make it that far. I guess I'll take it if that's what happens.
I think we win Sunday and our 1st game in the BTT and end up a 6. I think id actually prefer this over wining the BTT and being exhausted like last year and losing our 1st round NCAA game.
 
I hope that the statements some have made about the NET rankings not being the end all are true. This whole Big 12 thing has me flummoxed. Seems to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Team #1, is ranked in the Top 25, then they play and lose to another ranked team, Team #2. Team #2 now has a win against a ranked team so they bolster that resume. Meanwhile the Big Ten has few ranked teams so when they play each other they cant seem to get good quality wins and with the parity, clearly with 6 teams tied for 2nd right now at 11-8, it looks like we are weak. Maybe we are. I suspect not though.

As an example, right now, the Big 12 has 5 teams in the top 20 NET. The Big Ten 1.
The Big 12 has 7 teams in the top 30 NET and the Big Ten 3.

So this also seems to massively affect a teams Quad 1 wins of course. A home win against a top 30 being a Quad 1. How is this not a huge flaw?
Net has plenty of issues, that's why it's just a piece of data for these busy athletic directors on the Committee to easily chew on. Utah State a poster child of this concept, sitting at #22 in the Net, with 0 Quad 1 wins, and most brackets don't even have them in the Dance as an at-large (shows a large discrepancy between Net ranking and possible seed).
 
I think we win Sunday and our 1st game in the BTT and end up a 6. I think id actually prefer this over wining the BTT and being exhausted like last year and losing our 1st round NCAA game.
Which was not an excuse because Richmond also played in their tournament championship game. They had a total of about 2 hours extra rest.
 
Which was not an excuse because Richmond also played in their tournament championship game. They had a total of about 2 hours extra rest.
I think the point is being a tired team may prevent you from putting forth your best effort, which probably invites opportunity for a "lesser" team. Iowa playing their best game beats Richmond every time. The odds of Iowa playing their best game when tired decreases.
 
I think the point is being a tired team may prevent you from putting forth your best effort, which probably invites opportunity for a "lesser" team. Iowa playing their best game beats Richmond every time. The odds of Iowa playing their best game when tired decreases.
But Richmond was also tired.
 
But Richmond was also tired.
Yes, but like I said, that has nothing to do with Iowa's less than best performance. Tired legs equalize the playing field. Iowa only scored 28 first half points. If Iowa shot it well, they score in the 40's and they have a double digit halftime lead. Of course that poor performance wasn't solely caused by tired legs, but it's fair to argue it played a factor.
 
Yes, but like I said, that has nothing to do with Iowa's less than best performance. Tired legs equalize the playing field. Iowa only scored 28 first half points. If Iowa shot it well, they score in the 40's and they have a double digit halftime lead. Of course that poor performance wasn't solely caused by tired legs, but it's fair to argue it played a factor.
Your analogy makes no sense. Iowa should have been no more tired than Richmond, thus that factor offsets. Iowa lost because they shot poorly and didn't play good enough defense.

Tired legs would not equalize the playing field unless the better team was tired and the lesser team fresh. That was not the case.

You can't say tired legs played a factor for Iowa but not Richmond.
 
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