What is crazy is the way MSU has been tanking, they could lose 2 or 3 more games and I would not be shocked.
March 14 Joe Lunardi / ESPN Bracketology: IOWA is on the Bubble (7th Team OUT). #59 NET Ranking (8th Best in B1G) on March 14
- Thread starter Franisdaman
- Start date
Let’s just win the Big Ten Tourney against Purdue.
I would say Illinois over Minny, would overall help us if talking NET. Just playing Illinois keeps Minny in range to tap above 75 at some point. And helps Iowa, if Iowa does win their last reg season game. Also seeing that here (defcon section bottom of page once it loads):
I would say Illinois over Minny, would overall help us if talking NET. Just playing Illinois keeps Minny in range to tap above 75 at some point. And helps Iowa, if Iowa does win their last reg season game. Also seeing that here (defcon section bottom of page once it loads):
would be nice to get Minny back to a quad 1 win
Northwestern improves to 20-8 tonight with a 7 point road win at Maryland.
I guess it's pick your poison.
St Johns came into today what a #44 NET and 2 Quad 1 wins.
Butler came in with a #63 NET and 3 Quad 1 wins.
Iowa came in with a #59 NET and 2 Quad 1 wins.
Nah. St John's path to a tournament bid is almost entirely dependent on a deep run in the BE tournament. Their final 2 regular season games are both Q4 against DePaul and Georgetown.
Not to mention, St John's games in the BE tournament are all considered home games. So they cannot add a Q1 win unless they play UConn, Marquette or Creighton in the BE tournament.
Minny back to a Q1 win today, after their loss to Illinois.
Here are today's NET Rankings.
#61 NET Iowa is now 3-8 in Quad 1 games.
NET
Rank..Previous..Record...Road..Neutral..Home..Quad1...Quad 2...Quad 3...Quad 4
#61 NET Iowa is now 3-8 in Quad 1 games.
NET
Rank..Previous..Record...Road..Neutral..Home..Quad1...Quad 2...Quad 3...Quad 4
| 2 | 2 | Purdue | Big Ten | 25-3 | 6-3 | 5-0 | 14-0 | 9-3 | 7-0 | 6-0 | 3-0 |
| 16 | 16 | Illinois | Big Ten | 21-7 | 4-5 | 2-0 | 15-2 | 4-5 | 6-2 | 6-0 | 5-0 |
| 22 | 22 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 18-10 | 3-8 | 2-0 | 13-2 | 7-6 | 5-4 | 2-0 | 4-0 |
| 24 | 24 | Michigan St. | Big Ten | 17-11 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 13-4 | 4-8 | 5-3 | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| 41 | 41 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 20-8 | 2-7 | 1-0 | 17-1 | 4-7 | 4-1 | 5-0 | 7-0 |
| 48 | 52 | Northwestern | Big Ten | 20-8 | 4-6 | 2-1 | 14-1 | 5-6 | 5-1 | 4-0 | 6-1 |
| 61 | 59 | Iowa | Big Ten | 17-12 | 3-8 | 2-1 | 12-3 | 3-8 | 5-3 | 3-1 | 6-0 |
| 65 | 66 | Ohio St. | Big Ten | 16-12 | 1-8 | 4-0 | 11-4 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 6-1 | 5-0 |
| 69 | 67 | Maryland | Big Ten | 15-14 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 11-5 | 2-9 | 4-2 | 2-3 | 7-0 |
| 75 | 77 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 17-11 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 15-3 | 1-7 | 6-3 | 1-1 | 9-0 |
| 94 | 94 | Penn St. | Big Ten | 14-15 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 12-4 | 2-8 | 4-5 | 3-1 | 5-1 |
| 98 | 98 | Rutgers | Big Ten | 14-13 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 11-4 | 3-10 | 3-2 | 1-1 | 7-0 |
| 105 | 105 | Indiana | Big Ten | 15-13 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 12-5 | 2-8 | 5-4 | 2-1 | 6-0 |
| 118 | 119 | Michigan | Big Ten | 8-20 | 2-8 | 1-3 | 5-9 | 3-12 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 1-0 |
The 8-9 seed is a death sentence for us. We’d play one team that probably wouldn’t budge our NET if we beat them then we’d lose to Purdue, which is the only team I think we can’t beat.
61 is a pretty low Net. There's just not much seperation between a lot of these teams. They really control their own destiny at this point. Beat NW and Illinois and they're in the last 4 in first 4 out discussion I'd say. Lose 1 of those 2 and it's probably going to take a miracle run in the Big Ten tourney.
ST. Johns getting a lot of love this morning. At least the bubble was kind to Iowa last night! Utah and Colorado is going to be a thorn in Iowas side I believe, Need Gonzaga to lose tonight and maybe Saturday and how Texas AM is still above Iowa is somewhat surprising. GO HAWKS!!
What's worrisome about our next 2 games:
* Northwestern hasn't lost a B1G game at home yet
* Illinois, even at home, is going to be very tough.
Hopefully we find a way and win them both
The fact that we are 6 seasons into using the NET and people still site our own NET as if that matters tells me the NCAA really needs to do more education on the selection process. Our own NET is largely meaningless. I think it's the biggest misconception about the entire system as local sports reporters seem to think that's the only thing that matters.
Gonzaga has two games remaining in regular season. Both top teams in the WAC, St. Mary's (who beat them earlier) and USF. WAC normally only gets one team in the tourney. This year could be two teams if Gonzaga wins the conf. tourney. Heck, maybe 3 teams if USF wins tourney.
The WCC has gotten 2 or more bids in the field in 8 of the last 10 tournaments (and in 2019-20 they were likely going to get 3 bids before the tournament got cancelled). BYU and St Mary's seemed to alternate years for a while there on who got the 2nd at-large.
I like the way this team is playing and theyve settled on a solid rotation. Would love to see this group make the tournament. If they don't make the tournament, I get this is most teams, but especially this Iowa team has nobody to blame but themselves (Michigan loss at home and both Maryland losses....woof)
Explain. I'm not saying it's the end all but it's certainly a factor. Of course Quad 1 and 2 wins, etc., but if we're still hovering around 61 it means we won't have beaten Illinois or NW.
The NET was created to be a sorting tool--it's entire goal was to easily classify wins and losses as "good" or "bad". That's why we should care about our opponent's NET ranking. If you want real metrics that matter--SOR is usually the metric that matters most to the committee as it's the metric that most aligns with the quads. Basically, the NET's entire purpose is to determine the quad records for every team; it's not designed to tell us who the most deserving tournament teams are in order of 1-362.
The committee has also proven that the NET rankings do not really get factored into the discussion (and the NCAA has said they never intended them to be a factor). That's why Rutgers was able to get an NCAA bid with a NET ranking of #77 while Oklahoma and Texas A&M were left off to become NIT #1 seeds with NET rankings in the 30s.
Fran seems to have settled on 9 players; it does seem like it's working quite well
Theres a chance we could end up the 6th team in the standings with a win over MSU at their place. Would MSU still get the NCAA if that occurred over Iowa?
2019: St John's (73), Arizona St (63), Minnesota (61), Seton Hall (57), Temple (56), Ohio St (55)
2020: No tournament
2021: Michigan St (76), Wichita St (70)
2022: Rutgers (77), Wyoming (58)
2023: Pitt (67), Arizona St (66), Providence (56)
That's all the teams that have gotten into the tournament as an at-large under the #55 mark. So, of course, not common. But it's more than people think. Logically, teams that win more and win by wide margins are naturally tournament teams with high NET ranking. The point I'm trying to make is that the committee isn't leaving out teams for bad NET rankings--they are leaving teams out for not having good enough wins or bad losses. If Iowa wins the next 2 games by 1 point each, I think their SOR & Quad 1 record will be good enough to get into the field, regardless of what Iowa's NET ranking does. That's the point I'm trying to make.
The NET isn't the only thing that matters but you need the NET to:
(1) rank the teams.
(2) determine what's a Quad 1 win vs a Quad 2, Quad 3 and a Quad 4.
And your overall tournament resume (including the number of Quad 1 wins you have) determines whether you make the NCAA Tournament or not. This is why I posted this tweet this morning:
MSU's current NET ranking is #24. Pretty big difference when compared to IA -#61. Not sure how much IA's ranking would climb with winning the last two.
That's exactly what my post said--the NET is a sorting tool that produces an intended output: determining the quadrants. But again, that's why our opponent's NET rankings matter. Our own NET rank is, again, largely meaningless when it comes to determining whether or not Iowa is a tournament team.
I 100% agree with all of Fran Stan's points there in that post other than I do not think Iowa's NET needs to be in that 50-55 range like he says. Is that likely going to happen if Iowa wins their final 2 games? Sure. But if the NET ranking remains the same there is no need to panic if Iowa picked up 2 Q1 wins.
Ohio State (17-12) beat Nebraska (20-9) at home tonight, 78-69.
@Alum-Ni , how comfortable are you when they play on a neutral court? Hopefully for you they are better than how they do in true road games.
@Alum-Ni , how comfortable are you when they play on a neutral court? Hopefully for you they are better than how they do in true road games.
