more tariffs
- Thread starter QChawks
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- qcpizzasucks
But is it though? If you can't concede that there is a chance this works then I can't or any stock in your assessment.
Listen to Bob Lighthizer on Tucker for a run down. You may not agree but after listening you won't be able to say you haven't heard the justification for it.
Again, what do you mean? We have the strongest economy in the world and it’s not close.
Tariffs will cause imported products prices to go up. People will buy the cheaper product and if its made here it will be. Why do people buy Chinese goods? Seriously? Why? They like supporting the CCP?
Why can China make so many things that are almost identical to American things but do so cheaper?
Is it a good idea national security wise that we are reliant on Asia for our manufacturing?
What if businesses start building products hrrevthat we buy?
I have my doubts annoy this policy working but I do not have any doubts as to why they are doing it.
Why can China make so many things that are almost identical to American things but do so cheaper?
Is it a good idea national security wise that we are reliant on Asia for our manufacturing?
What if businesses start building products hrrevthat we buy?
I have my doubts annoy this policy working but I do not have any doubts as to why they are doing it.
We build almost nothing here. We are now a service economy. This is not sustainable in today's geopolitical environment. If world peace was a certainty we wouldnt need to care if we were getting all our products made elsewhere. They build cheap we buy cheap. But world peace isn't certainty at all.
We manufacture, mine or drill for all the things we need for our security here or in countries where trade is 100% free. No special carve outs. No fines for tech companies by EU tyrants. No stolen intellectual property etc.
In 2022 we exported 2.1 trillion worth of goods behind only China.
Countries & Regions
The United States has trade relations with more than 75 countries around the world. The top five export markets for U.S. goods in 2013 were: Canada, $300.3 billion Mexico, $226.2 billion China, $122 billion Japan, $65.1 billion Germany, $47.4 billion At USTR, trade with countries is coordinated...
ustr.gov
That story says 2013.In 2022 we exported 2.1 trillion worth of goods behind only China.
Countries & Regions
The United States has trade relations with more than 75 countries around the world. The top five export markets for U.S. goods in 2013 were: Canada, $300.3 billion Mexico, $226.2 billion China, $122 billion Japan, $65.1 billion Germany, $47.4 billion At USTR, trade with countries is coordinated...ustr.gov
They will also cause domestic prices to go up.
We have sub 5% unemployment and are actively trying to reduce the workforce. We cannot manufacture, mine, and drill for all of our products unless we drastically lower our standard of living.
No, it doesn’t.
The United States is the 2nd largest goods exporter in the world, behind only China. U.S. goods exports to the world totaled $2.1 trillion in 2022
Read about labor participation. There are lots of people not counted in that unemployment rate
Domestic prices will go up on products not produced domestically. The ones that are will have a competitive advantage. The rare economists that claim US producers will simply then raise prices to match the imported prices are idiots.
My main concern is will this play out fast enough for Americans to see that it worked. If it does. No one really know tbh. See my post yesterday.
I see the point of this all. But I do think it is a big gamble. We need to collectively understand that to be secure we can't keep buying from china. Maybe we need a massive ‘support the war effort’ style campaign to get people to understand.
I mean we are not competitive in many sectors and state side manufacturing gets lower and lower by the day.
Do we even have the workforce to accomplish it? The manufacturing labor still needs to be skilled.
It’s a huge, risky gamble when we have the biggest stack by far at the table. That’s why it’s so dumb.
hawkeyetraveler
HB Heisman
That depends. Will companies invest huge amounts of capital in US projects over a multi year period? What is their calculus on America’s patience with the higher cost?
A FAR better mechanism to encourage onshore production is to give a subsidy to the critical industries we need for national security: pharma, chipsets, components for defense products, etc. Lower their burden of investment.
Instead Trump has made global trade the MOST economically unstable it has been since the 1940’s (or maybe even the 1930’s). It is unpredictable. Would you spend capital in an unpredictable market? And even at these tariff levels it is probably the case that there are still many products that will be cheaper to make overseas. Take the Bangladeshi tariffs…what do we import from Bangladeshi? Tee-shirts and other clothing would be my guess. Are we really going to make tee shirts in the US at anything comparable to the unit costs they can make there even after the tariff? Doubtful.
And then let’s say companies do decide to bring everything back. If we import >40% of the economic value we consume then we will need the labor and machinery to operate those factories. Where are we going to find that scale of new bodies to work in factories? Where are we going to find the equipment for those factories?
It is highly complex which is why you let the free market decide winners and losers. But instead we are putting our hand on the scale. The unintended consequences will be legendary and will go down as an economic, political and social disaster. And I am not being hyperbolic. This is a damned tragedy in the making. And oh so preventable.
hawkeyetraveler
HB Heisman
And? If India has stupid economic policies on tariffs we should blow up our economy so Harley can sell a few hogs to rich Indians?
You have been one of the most anti-Trump people on this board and you think his economic policies have any level of validity whatsoever? You trust he has done the math, selected a team of superstar economists to make sure this is truly in our best interests?
Every economist, most business leaders and every academic has said this is stupid. I’m telling you from my vantage point this is an unmitigated disaster in the making. Seriously, read some basic economics and then we can chat about this.
hawkeyetraveler
HB Heisman
There is a 0.1% chance this works. We pushed our chips all in against much smaller stacks and we don’t even have a pair of twos.
exactly. the "why" isn't that hard to figure out and, frankly, not 100% wrong
but the solution - tarriff literally everything as a FIRST STEP (and not seemingly coupled with any policy changes) - is so child-like simplistic that it's hard to believe it's coming out of a presidential administration
Of course it “may” work but at what cost? Trump is literally gambling with millions of peoples livelihoods, especially those retired or soon-to-be.
Even if America was getting a “bad deal” our standard of living is fantastic, the economy was strong and the workforce was thriving. Why fuk it all up on a gamble?
I haven’t seen the stock market this unpredictable since Covid and it took years to come back from that uncertainty. Again, this all seems very unnecessary.
Let’s just assume you making a new deal with the current administration. Is it even worth the paper it’s printed on. Trump negotiated the current deal with Mexico and Canada he now says is fleecing the US.
A deal is only as good as the trust between the partners. There is no trust here.
I'm curious how will the USA be competitive with countries with little to no labor laws, slave labor, and little to no regulations. How are you going to tax your way out of the difference between their and our standard of living?
I'm sure people not currently looking for work will jump at the chance to work in factories....
If we are going to do something about India that has real teeth … get them to stop calling my office and asking to do patent searches for me.
Given China's demographics manufacturing was going to need to shift at some point. I think we would be better off partnering with Mexico. Increased economic stability in Mexico could have many benefits to the US. Reducing immigration, corruption, the influence of the drug cartels, and reduced transportation costs. And generally being a more compatible partner than China.
I am hopeful that Trump is happy with countries removing their tariffs and he can claim success. I think that is the best case scenario. But I don't think that result would be consistent with what he has said his goal is. If Germany drops tariffs on US autos is that really going to create a bunch of jobs in the US by making American cars slightly cheaper?
Also the American brand is going to be hurt tremendously. People just are not going to want to buy American products unless they are vastly superior or significantly cheaper. Countries are going to see us as unreliable and will look for deals with other partners whenever possible.
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I call it like I see it. There are countries which have fk'd the US and they know it. As an Indian American, it pains me to say that India is one of those countries. So, no I am not distressed by Trump's actions in that one context.
No no. Let's keep importing shit from everywhere else and just lock stock and barrel sending our tech know how to places like Taiwan. After all, you want that cheap PS5 don't you?
hawkeyetraveler
HB Heisman
It’s a strange flex. India hurts their consumers so you celebrate Trump hurting ours? Honestly bizarre take.
I think other nations making US goods non-competitive abroad due to THEIR TARIFFS hurts our consumers. Wtf is the flex? India is a sovereign nation and can do wtf it wants. But putting an excise duty of 52% on all imported American goods is kinda insane for things made in America.
hawkeyetraveler
HB Heisman
India’s policy is dumb IMO. And sure we sold a few less Harleys. But our economy does not need to sell Harleys in India to be strong. it does need to import goods cheaply to be strong because we cannot make them here anytime in the near future. So we blow all of that up over this?
If we wanted to solve the India problem the right way is a one off targeted application of specific tariffs to solve a specific trade dispute. You want to solve that? Put a tariff on Indian IT services. The problem would go away very quickly.
This blanket measure on every country on earth, including unpopulated Antarctic islands is literally the dumbest possible solution.
Why didn't Russia get tarifed?
hawkeyetraveler
HB Heisman
Cause Trump is a Russian asset?
To be fair they don't buy practically nothing from us.
NIce grammer, jackass.
i do understand your viewpoint. that said addressing trade deficits with everyone is important particularly when everyone else protects their markets and in one case (china) not only makes their market impervious via diktat, throws tariffs on top, coerces tech transfer, engages in ip theft and corporate plus academic espionage and sits in the wto and thus can utilize multiple channels of access to our market— all this while being openly hostile with intent to take us out. i am not saying current approach is perfect but it can be tweaked. but it will jumpstart tye making of more things in america and make us less vulnerable in the event of ww/covid type events
FIFY
You do know you're saying this about possibly the luckiest man ever to live right?
